Esher and Walton: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Esher and Walton: Overview

 Projection: CON seat 

Implied MP at 2017: Dominic Raab  (CON)
County/Area: Surrey (South East)
Electorate: 73,791
Turnout: 76.3%

 Implied 2017 VotesImplied 2017 Share
CON Majority21,51738.2%

See overview of other seats in South East.

Esher and Walton : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Esher and Walton constituency, the 'South East' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatSouth EastAll GB
Economic Position7° Right4° Right
National Position3° Int3° Nat1° Int
EU Leave %41%52%52%
British Identity32%29%29%
Good Health56%49%48%
UK Born83%88%88%
Good Education54%43%39%
Good Job71%56%51%
High SEC72%57%51%
Average Age49.949.248.5
ABC1 Class75%60%53%

Esher and Walton ranks #502 for "Leave", #154 for "Right" and #425 for "National" out of 600 new seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Esher and Walton: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015


This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Esher and Walton been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

List of old seats forming part of Esher and Walton

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Esher and Walton

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Esher and Walton, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Esher and WaltonTransfer-adjusted Results
New SeatCON
ElmbridgeClaygate5,325Esher and Walton2,0174711,353384500133,937
ElmbridgeCobham and Downside4,872Esher and Walton2,465472578531600173,601
ElmbridgeCobham Fairmile3,540Esher and Walton1,618437435961300182,617
ElmbridgeEsher5,000Esher and Walton2,5365414402311900373,696
ElmbridgeHersham North4,462Esher and Walton1,8117015406117000153,298
ElmbridgeHersham South4,736Runnymede and Weybridge2,3035234259014300193,503
ElmbridgeHinchley Wood3,753Esher and Walton1,52872044213300512,775
ElmbridgeLong Ditton4,699Esher and Walton1,7564651,184322600123,475
ElmbridgeMolesey East4,729Esher and Walton2,0317975191410000343,495
ElmbridgeMolesey North4,433Esher and Walton1,648900554844000513,277
ElmbridgeMolesey South5,009Esher and Walton1,6671,2075651664500543,704
ElmbridgeOxshott and Stoke D'Abernon4,892Esher and Walton2,68940846636800103,617
ElmbridgeThames Ditton4,696Esher and Walton1,7699035851615500433,471
ElmbridgeWalton Ambleside3,112Esher and Walton1,324572308642100112,300
ElmbridgeWalton Central5,042Esher and Walton2,360726499583500493,727
ElmbridgeWalton North4,834Esher and Walton1,9179195131575100163,573
ElmbridgeWalton South4,931Esher and Walton2,361577611333300313,646
ElmbridgeWeston Green2,874Esher and Walton1,270434356102300332,126
 Total80,939 35,07011,77310,3731,0321,0760051459,838

The full details of these calculations are given on the Esher and Walton seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Esher and Walton

The new seat of Esher and Walton is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Esher and Walton
Old Seat CON
ElmbridgeClaygate5,363Esher and Walton2,0174711,353384500133,937
ElmbridgeCobham and Downside4,660Esher and Walton2,465472578531600173,601
ElmbridgeCobham Fairmile2,924Esher and Walton1,618437435961300182,617
ElmbridgeEsher4,797Esher and Walton2,5365414402311900373,696
ElmbridgeHersham North4,442Esher and Walton1,8117015406117000153,298
ElmbridgeHinchley Wood3,752Esher and Walton1,52872044213300512,775
ElmbridgeLong Ditton4,578Esher and Walton1,7564651,184322600123,475
ElmbridgeMolesey East4,758Esher and Walton2,0317975191410000343,495
ElmbridgeMolesey North4,550Esher and Walton1,648900554844000513,277
ElmbridgeMolesey South4,930Esher and Walton1,6671,2075651664500543,704
ElmbridgeOxshott and Stoke D'Abernon4,428Esher and Walton2,68940846636800103,617
ElmbridgeThames Ditton4,534Esher and Walton1,7699035851615500433,471
ElmbridgeWalton Ambleside3,041Esher and Walton1,324572308642100112,300
ElmbridgeWalton Central4,921Esher and Walton2,360726499583500493,727
ElmbridgeWalton North4,569Esher and Walton1,9179195131575100163,573
ElmbridgeWalton South4,713Esher and Walton2,361577611333300313,646
ElmbridgeWeston Green2,831Esher and Walton1,270434356102300332,126
 Total73,791 32,76711,2509,9489429330049556,335

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Esher and Walton.

© 2018 Electoral Calculus Ltd
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