Flint and Rhuddlan: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Flint and Rhuddlan: Overview

 Projection: LAB seat 

Implied MP at 2017: Chris Ruane  (LAB)
County/Area: Clwyd (Wales)
Electorate: 75,548
Turnout: 72.0%

 Implied 2017 VotesImplied 2017 Share
LAB29,49554.2%
CON22,56141.5%
Plaid1,6843.1%
LIB6331.2%
LAB Majority6,93412.8%

See overview of other seats in Wales.

Flint and Rhuddlan : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Flint and Rhuddlan constituency, the 'Wales' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatWalesAll GB
Party WinnerLABLABCON
Economic Position7° Left10° Left
National Position3° Int1° Int
EU Leave %56%53%52%
British Identity28%26%29%
Good Health44%47%48%
UK Born89%95%88%
Good Education27%36%39%
Good Job42%46%51%
High SEC39%46%51%
Average Age47.449.648.5
ABC1 Class40%47%53%

Flint and Rhuddlan ranks #222 for "Leave", #446 for "Right" and #378 for "National" out of 600 new seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Flint and Rhuddlan: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Flint and Rhuddlan been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

List of old seats forming part of Flint and Rhuddlan

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Delyn

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Delyn, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: DelynTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Plaid
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
FlintshireArgoed2,161Alyn and Deeside8235262020024001,575
FlintshireBagillt East1,474Flint and Rhuddlan438582230031001,074
FlintshireBagillt West1,732Flint and Rhuddlan2101,00360043001,262
FlintshireBrynford1,693Flint and Rhuddlan76543160031001,233
FlintshireCaerwys1,970Flint and Rhuddlan1,091276250043001,435
FlintshireCilcain1,470Flint and Rhuddlan59043390039001,071
FlintshireFfynnongroyw1,400Flint and Rhuddlan32466450027001,020
FlintshireFlint Castle1,611Flint and Rhuddlan138989230024001,174
FlintshireFlint Coleshill3,056Flint and Rhuddlan5511,65613007002,227
FlintshireFlint Oakenholt2,383Flint and Rhuddlan5811,0172500114001,737
FlintshireFlint Trelawny2,863Flint and Rhuddlan5971,410610017002,085
FlintshireGreenfield2,141Flint and Rhuddlan52199130044001,559
FlintshireGronant1,180Flint and Rhuddlan260586500900860
FlintshireGwernaffield1,517Alyn and Deeside662413200010001,105
FlintshireGwernymynydd1,371Alyn and Deeside38851174002500998
FlintshireHalkyn1,341Flint and Rhuddlan5863522003700977
FlintshireHolywell Central1,533Flint and Rhuddlan322758240012001,116
FlintshireHolywell East1,365Flint and Rhuddlan3625999002500995
FlintshireHolywell West1,822Flint and Rhuddlan365563300397001,328
FlintshireLeeswood1,651Alyn and Deeside536610230032001,201
FlintshireMold Broncoed2,116Alyn and Deeside712758540017001,541
FlintshireMold East1,529Alyn and Deeside343715310024001,113
FlintshireMold South2,083Alyn and Deeside61562210500175001,517
FlintshireMold West2,047Alyn and Deeside5188322900111001,490
FlintshireMostyn (Delyn)1,437Flint and Rhuddlan386613170030001,046
FlintshireNew Brighton2,353Alyn and Deeside801780128005001,714
FlintshireNorthop2,368Flint and Rhuddlan1,08062370015001,725
FlintshireNorthop Hall1,182Flint and Rhuddlan429425400300861
FlintshireTrelawnyd and Gwaenysgor1,442Flint and Rhuddlan64131560088001,050
FlintshireWhitford1,824Flint and Rhuddlan698521870022001,328
 Total54,115 16,33320,5741,029001,4810039,417

The full details of these calculations are given on the Delyn seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Vale of Clwyd

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Vale of Clwyd, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Vale of ClwydTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Plaid
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
DenbighshireBodelwyddan1,730Conwy and Colwyn52862712008001,175
DenbighshireDenbigh Central1,706Clwyd South and Montgomeryshire North4334314500251001,160
DenbighshireDenbigh Lower3,640Clwyd South and Montgomeryshire North1,21192310900233002,476
DenbighshireDenbigh Upper / Henllan2,545Clwyd South and Montgomeryshire North4861,0647600105001,731
DenbighshireDyserth1,881Flint and Rhuddlan668530710011001,280
DenbighshireLlandyrnog1,707Clwyd South and Montgomeryshire North638442200062001,162
DenbighshirePrestatyn Central2,817Flint and Rhuddlan8801,01060020001,916
DenbighshirePrestatyn East3,257Flint and Rhuddlan1,187985190024002,215
DenbighshirePrestatyn Meliden1,645Flint and Rhuddlan58549600037001,118
DenbighshirePrestatyn North4,552Flint and Rhuddlan1,3971,628360034003,095
DenbighshirePrestatyn South West2,765Flint and Rhuddlan7831,0836008001,880
DenbighshireRhuddlan2,903Flint and Rhuddlan1,1706203000154001,974
DenbighshireRhyl East3,373Flint and Rhuddlan9571,307150015002,294
DenbighshireRhyl South2,933Flint and Rhuddlan7741,13540081001,994
DenbighshireRhyl South East6,018Flint and Rhuddlan1,6432,397290024004,093
DenbighshireRhyl South West4,360Flint and Rhuddlan8311,993430097002,964
DenbighshireRhyl West3,511Flint and Rhuddlan7511,5041100121002,387
DenbighshireSt Asaph East1,340Conwy and Colwyn522268112001000912
DenbighshireSt Asaph West1,345Conwy and Colwyn42145910002400914
DenbighshireTrefnant1,556Conwy and Colwyn590257000211001,058
DenbighshireTremeirchion1,308Conwy and Colwyn59226313002200890
 Total56,892 17,04719,422667001,5520038,688

The full details of these calculations are given on the Vale of Clwyd seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Flint and Rhuddlan

The new seat of Flint and Rhuddlan is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Flint and Rhuddlan
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old Seat CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Plaid
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
DenbighshireDyserth1,905Vale of Clwyd668530710011001,280
DenbighshirePrestatyn Central2,814Vale of Clwyd8801,01060020001,916
DenbighshirePrestatyn East3,219Vale of Clwyd1,187985190024002,215
DenbighshirePrestatyn Meliden1,572Vale of Clwyd58549600037001,118
DenbighshirePrestatyn North4,691Vale of Clwyd1,3971,628360034003,095
DenbighshirePrestatyn South West2,848Vale of Clwyd7831,0836008001,880
DenbighshireRhuddlan2,851Vale of Clwyd1,1706203000154001,974
DenbighshireRhyl East3,684Vale of Clwyd9571,307150015002,294
DenbighshireRhyl South2,948Vale of Clwyd7741,13540081001,994
DenbighshireRhyl South East6,007Vale of Clwyd1,6432,397290024004,093
DenbighshireRhyl South West3,736Vale of Clwyd8311,993430097002,964
DenbighshireRhyl West3,367Vale of Clwyd7511,5041100121002,387
FlintshireBagillt East1,420Delyn438582230031001,074
FlintshireBagillt West1,559Delyn2101,00360043001,262
FlintshireBrynford1,702Delyn76543160031001,233
FlintshireCaerwys1,979Delyn1,091276250043001,435
FlintshireCilcain1,495Delyn59043390039001,071
FlintshireFfynnongroyw1,409Delyn32466450027001,020
FlintshireFlint Castle1,324Delyn138989230024001,174
FlintshireFlint Coleshill2,914Delyn5511,65613007002,227
FlintshireFlint Oakenholt2,026Delyn5811,0172500114001,737
FlintshireFlint Trelawny2,645Delyn5971,410610017002,085
FlintshireGreenfield1,965Delyn52199130044001,559
FlintshireGronant1,182Delyn260586500900860
FlintshireHalkyn1,395Delyn5863522003700977
FlintshireHolywell Central1,389Delyn322758240012001,116
FlintshireHolywell East1,361Delyn3625999002500995
FlintshireHolywell West1,766Delyn365563300397001,328
FlintshireMostyn (Delyn)1,413Delyn386613170030001,046
FlintshireNorthop2,439Delyn1,08062370015001,725
FlintshireNorthop Hall1,248Delyn429425400300861
FlintshireTrelawnyd and Gwaenysgor1,451Delyn64131560088001,050
FlintshireWhitford1,824Delyn698521870022001,328
 Total75,548 22,56129,495633001,6840054,373

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Flint and Rhuddlan.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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