Hastings and Rye: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Hastings and Rye: Overview

 Projection: CON seat 

Implied MP at 2017: Amber Rudd  (CON)
County/Area: East Sussex (South East)
Electorate: 71,672
Turnout: 76.4%

 Implied 2017 VotesImplied 2017 Share
CON25,67346.9%
LAB25,32346.2%
LIB1,8823.4%
UKIP1,4772.7%
OTH4100.7%
CON Majority3500.6%

See overview of other seats in South East.

Hastings and Rye : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Hastings and Rye constituency, the 'South East' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatSouth EastAll GB
Party WinnerCONCONCON
Economic Position4° Left4° Right
National Position2° Nat3° Nat1° Int
EU Leave %55%52%52%
British Identity34%29%29%
Good Health58%49%48%
UK Born58%88%88%
Good Education64%43%39%
Good Job77%56%51%
High SEC66%57%51%
Average Age41.149.248.5
ABC1 Class76%60%53%

Hastings and Rye ranks #250 for "Leave", #402 for "Right" and #306 for "National" out of 600 new seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Hastings and Rye: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Hastings and Rye been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

List of old seats forming part of Hastings and Rye

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Hastings and Rye

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Hastings and Rye, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Hastings and RyeTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
HastingsAshdown4,471Hastings and Rye1,8151,07468156000153,128
HastingsBaird3,518Hastings and Rye1,0281,25927136000112,461
HastingsBraybrooke3,852Hastings and Rye1,0821,4899417000122,694
HastingsCastle5,069Hastings and Rye1,3261,90128814000163,545
HastingsCentral St Leonards5,171Hastings and Rye1,3031,9361081130001573,617
HastingsConquest3,632Hastings and Rye1,5228505598000142,539
HastingsGensing4,846Hastings and Rye1,2621,93457117000213,391
HastingsHollington4,460Hastings and Rye1,2571,56938240000153,119
HastingsMaze Hill3,812Hastings and Rye1,3791,12710248000102,666
HastingsOld Hastings4,267Hastings and Rye1,1611,65213616000192,984
HastingsOre3,772Hastings and Rye1,0411,4398263000142,639
HastingsSilverhill3,493Hastings and Rye1,1291,2097022000142,444
HastingsSt Helens3,591Hastings and Rye1,45987841119000152,512
HastingsTressell3,858Hastings and Rye9221,5831651900092,698
HastingsWest St Leonards3,778Hastings and Rye1,3351,11875104000102,642
HastingsWishing Tree3,862Hastings and Rye9921,56010337000102,702
RotherBrede Valley3,455Hastings and Rye1,66357513234000132,417
RotherEastern Rother3,482Hastings and Rye1,5018008437000122,434
RotherMarsham2,831Hastings and Rye1,2686075440000111,980
RotherRye3,079Hastings and Rye1,22876310347000122,153
 Total78,299 25,67325,3231,8821,47700041054,765

The full details of these calculations are given on the Hastings and Rye seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Hastings and Rye

The new seat of Hastings and Rye is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Hastings and Rye
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old Seat CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
HastingsAshdown4,365Hastings and Rye1,8151,07468156000153,128
HastingsBaird3,362Hastings and Rye1,0281,25927136000112,461
HastingsBraybrooke3,311Hastings and Rye1,0821,4899417000122,694
HastingsCastle3,559Hastings and Rye1,3261,90128814000163,545
HastingsCentral St Leonards3,272Hastings and Rye1,3031,9361081130001573,617
HastingsConquest3,710Hastings and Rye1,5228505598000142,539
HastingsGensing3,617Hastings and Rye1,2621,93457117000213,391
HastingsHollington3,969Hastings and Rye1,2571,56938240000153,119
HastingsMaze Hill3,562Hastings and Rye1,3791,12710248000102,666
HastingsOld Hastings3,953Hastings and Rye1,1611,65213616000192,984
HastingsOre3,318Hastings and Rye1,0411,4398263000142,639
HastingsSilverhill3,132Hastings and Rye1,1291,2097022000142,444
HastingsSt Helens3,904Hastings and Rye1,45987841119000152,512
HastingsTressell3,065Hastings and Rye9221,5831651900092,698
HastingsWest St Leonards3,616Hastings and Rye1,3351,11875104000102,642
HastingsWishing Tree3,675Hastings and Rye9921,56010337000102,702
RotherBrede Valley3,948Hastings and Rye1,66357513234000132,417
RotherEastern Rother3,705Hastings and Rye1,5018008437000122,434
RotherMarsham3,312Hastings and Rye1,2686075440000111,980
RotherRye3,317Hastings and Rye1,22876310347000122,153
 Total71,672 25,67325,3231,8821,47700041054,765

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Hastings and Rye.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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