Hereford and South Herefordshire: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Hereford and South Herefordshire: Overview

 Projection: CON seat 

Implied MP at 2017: Jesse Norman  (CON)
County/Area: Hereford and Worcestershire (West Midlands)
Electorate: 77,370
Turnout: 74.4%

 Implied 2017 VotesImplied 2017 Share
CON31,26654.3%
LAB13,71623.8%
MIN5,5639.7%
LIB4,3097.5%
Green1,4002.4%
UKIP1,1542.0%
OTH1690.3%
CON Majority17,55030.5%

See overview of other seats in West Midlands.

Hereford and South Herefordshire : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Hereford and South Herefordshire constituency, the 'West Midlands' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatWest MidlandsAll GB
Party WinnerCONCONCON
Economic Position12° Right2° Right
National Position13° Nat9° Nat1° Int
EU Leave %61%59%52%
British Identity23%28%29%
Good Health46%45%48%
UK Born89%89%88%
Good Education30%35%39%
Good Job48%48%51%
High SEC47%46%51%
Average Age48.548.748.5
ABC1 Class49%49%53%

Hereford and South Herefordshire ranks #131 for "Leave", #68 for "Right" and #69 for "National" out of 600 new seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Hereford and South Herefordshire: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Hereford and South Herefordshire been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

List of old seats forming part of Hereford and South Herefordshire

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Hereford and South Herefordshire

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Hereford and South Herefordshire, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Hereford and South HerefordshireTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
HerefordshireAylestone Hill2,634Hereford and South Herefordshire9744741301922025201,871
HerefordshireBelmont Rural2,756Hereford and South Herefordshire1,055547491225026901,957
HerefordshireBirch2,335Hereford and South Herefordshire1,12825233739019801,657
HerefordshireBobblestock2,493Hereford and South Herefordshire80248810219820016101,771
HerefordshireCentral2,443Hereford and South Herefordshire755540160667020701,735
HerefordshireCollege2,808Hereford and South Herefordshire9266521401921023401,992
HerefordshireDinedor Hill2,679Hereford and South Herefordshire1,236308971124022701,903
HerefordshireEign Hill2,568Hereford and South Herefordshire870496170750023101,824
HerefordshireGolden Valley North2,240Hereford and South Herefordshire983212908253017001,590
HerefordshireGolden Valley South2,389Hereford and South Herefordshire1,171123668200012901,697
HerefordshireGreyfriars2,855Hereford and South Herefordshire947643149729025402,029
HerefordshireHinton and Hunderton3,071Hereford and South Herefordshire73375114962180030602,181
HerefordshireHolmer1,137Hereford and South Herefordshire461200273901080808
HerefordshireKerne Bridge2,387Hereford and South Herefordshire1,156241100533016001,695
HerefordshireKings Acre2,580Hereford and South Herefordshire7265792064524025301,833
HerefordshireLlangarron2,461Hereford and South Herefordshire1,198246109140015301,747
HerefordshireNewton Farm3,185Hereford and South Herefordshire9298141157121031202,262
HerefordshirePenyard2,372Hereford and South Herefordshire1,21922953022016101,684
HerefordshireRed Hill2,962Hereford and South Herefordshire1,0566521207614018502,103
HerefordshireRoss East2,593Hereford and South Herefordshire96136817514919017001,842
HerefordshireRoss North2,523Hereford and South Herefordshire1,090266308201409301,791
HerefordshireRoss West2,588Hereford and South Herefordshire1,1142912602321013001,839
HerefordshireSaxon Gate3,199Hereford and South Herefordshire1,1945871883529023902,272
HerefordshireStoney Street2,132Hereford and South Herefordshire8392654030165017501,514
HerefordshireTupsley2,313Hereford and South Herefordshire842425118615023801,644
HerefordshireWhitecross2,531Hereford and South Herefordshire78545314521915018101,798
HerefordshireWidemarsh2,182Hereford and South Herefordshire6564971832736015201,551
HerefordshireWormside2,672Hereford and South Herefordshire1,19839571613021501,898
 Total71,088 27,00411,9943,5531,1541,22005,563050,488

The full details of these calculations are given on the Hereford and South Herefordshire seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Herefordshire North

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Herefordshire North, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Herefordshire NorthTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
HerefordshireArrow2,876Ludlow and Leominster1,63324815006500342,130
HerefordshireBackbury2,302Hereford and South Herefordshire1,02440118405500411,705
HerefordshireBircher2,857Ludlow and Leominster1,38339622306100522,115
HerefordshireBishops Frome and Cradley2,408Malvern and Ledbury1,226180118024400151,783
HerefordshireBromyard Bringsty2,578Malvern and Ledbury1,19641819206000431,909
HerefordshireBromyard West2,454Malvern and Ledbury1,12543818003800361,817
HerefordshireCastle2,366Ludlow and Leominster1,18229818005500371,752
HerefordshireCredenhill2,741Hereford and South Herefordshire1,20449724103400542,030
HerefordshireHagley3,005Hereford and South Herefordshire1,38054121004500502,226
HerefordshireHampton2,674Malvern and Ledbury1,46528515204100371,980
HerefordshireHolmer1,120Hereford and South Herefordshire479223920170018829
HerefordshireHope End2,769Malvern and Ledbury1,42731520507000332,050
HerefordshireKington2,611Ludlow and Leominster5541861,12305200181,933
HerefordshireLedbury North2,463Malvern and Ledbury1,08644220105600401,825
HerefordshireLedbury South2,551Malvern and Ledbury1,17532032603800301,889
HerefordshireLedbury West2,918Malvern and Ledbury1,33251721604900482,162
HerefordshireLeominster East2,871Ludlow and Leominster1,041410200044800272,126
HerefordshireLeominster North and Rural3,173Ludlow and Leominster1,500355133033900232,350
HerefordshireLeominster South2,714Ludlow and Leominster965490220029700382,010
HerefordshireLeominster West2,171Ludlow and Leominster772254209035300191,607
HerefordshireMortimer2,488Ludlow and Leominster1,14138320008100361,841
HerefordshireOld Gore2,466Malvern and Ledbury1,23432719603600331,826
HerefordshireQueenswood2,708Ludlow and Leominster1,22148120704800482,005
HerefordshireStoney Street402Hereford and South Herefordshire1756029029006299
HerefordshireSutton Walls2,611Ludlow and Leominster1,32036715704500451,934
HerefordshireThree Crosses2,700Malvern and Ledbury1,47529114605800312,001
HerefordshireWeobley2,754Ludlow and Leominster1,38137218605600442,039
 Total67,751 31,0969,4955,87602,7700093650,173

The full details of these calculations are given on the Herefordshire North seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Hereford and South Herefordshire

The new seat of Hereford and South Herefordshire is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Hereford and South Herefordshire
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old Seat CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
HerefordshireAylestone Hill2,412Hereford and South Herefordshire9744741301922025201,871
HerefordshireBackbury2,242Herefordshire North1,02440118405500411,705
HerefordshireBelmont Rural2,505Hereford and South Herefordshire1,055547491225026901,957
HerefordshireBirch2,370Hereford and South Herefordshire1,12825233739019801,657
HerefordshireBobblestock2,278Hereford and South Herefordshire80248810219820016101,771
HerefordshireCentral2,159Hereford and South Herefordshire755540160667020701,735
HerefordshireCollege2,679Hereford and South Herefordshire9266521401921023401,992
HerefordshireCredenhill2,276Herefordshire North1,20449724103400542,030
HerefordshireDinedor Hill2,602Hereford and South Herefordshire1,236308971124022701,903
HerefordshireEign Hill2,574Hereford and South Herefordshire870496170750023101,824
HerefordshireGolden Valley North2,386Hereford and South Herefordshire983212908253017001,590
HerefordshireGolden Valley South2,546Hereford and South Herefordshire1,171123668200012901,697
HerefordshireGreyfriars2,482Hereford and South Herefordshire947643149729025402,029
HerefordshireHagley2,752Herefordshire North1,38054121004500502,226
HerefordshireHinton and Hunderton2,599Hereford and South Herefordshire73375114962180030602,181
HerefordshireHolmer1,309Hereford and South Herefordshire473213602130549824
HerefordshireHolmer1,290Herefordshire North467210591130549813
HerefordshireKerne Bridge2,437Hereford and South Herefordshire1,156241100533016001,695
HerefordshireKings Acre2,537Hereford and South Herefordshire7265792064524025301,833
HerefordshireLlangarron2,671Hereford and South Herefordshire1,198246109140015301,747
HerefordshireNewton Farm2,504Hereford and South Herefordshire9298141157121031202,262
HerefordshirePenyard2,631Hereford and South Herefordshire1,21922953022016101,684
HerefordshireRed Hill2,757Hereford and South Herefordshire1,0566521207614018502,103
HerefordshireRoss East2,806Hereford and South Herefordshire96136817514919017001,842
HerefordshireRoss North2,541Hereford and South Herefordshire1,090266308201409301,791
HerefordshireRoss West2,535Hereford and South Herefordshire1,1142912602321013001,839
HerefordshireSaxon Gate2,618Hereford and South Herefordshire1,1945871883529023902,272
HerefordshireStoney Street2,190Hereford and South Herefordshire8532735825163014751,524
HerefordshireStoney Street413Herefordshire North16152115310281289
HerefordshireTupsley2,489Hereford and South Herefordshire842425118615023801,644
HerefordshireWhitecross2,463Hereford and South Herefordshire78545314521915018101,798
HerefordshireWidemarsh1,781Hereford and South Herefordshire6564971832736015201,551
HerefordshireWormside2,536Hereford and South Herefordshire1,19839571613021501,898
 Total77,370 31,26613,7164,3091,1541,40005,56316957,577

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Hereford and South Herefordshire.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
Powered by TigerLib (11-Sep-2017 15:41)