Lincoln: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Lincoln: Overview

 Projection: CON seat 

Implied MP at 2017: Unknown (changed seat)  (CON)
County/Area: Lincolnshire (East Midlands)
Electorate: 73,889
Turnout: 73.4%

 Implied 2017 VotesImplied 2017 Share
CON24,92246.0%
LAB24,78245.7%
LIB1,6413.0%
UKIP1,5842.9%
Green8141.5%
OTH4900.9%
CON Majority1400.3%

See overview of other seats in East Midlands.

Lincoln : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Lincoln constituency, the 'East Midlands' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatEast MidlandsAll GB
Party WinnerCONCONCON
Economic Position5° Right3° Right
National Position8° Nat9° Nat1° Int
EU Leave %58%59%52%
British Identity30%27%29%
Good Health49%45%48%
UK Born92%91%88%
Good Education46%36%39%
Good Job59%48%51%
High SEC63%47%51%
Average Age52.949.148.5
ABC1 Class64%50%53%

Lincoln ranks #185 for "Leave", #199 for "Right" and #172 for "National" out of 600 new seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Lincoln: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Lincoln been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

List of old seats forming part of Lincoln

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Lincoln

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Lincoln, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: LincolnTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
LincolnAbbey7,898Lincoln1,9752,91212611210200365,263
LincolnBirchwood5,681Lincoln1,8091,765381351900213,787
LincolnBoultham5,119Lincoln1,2561,98058812000153,410
LincolnBracebridge4,995Lincoln1,7061,3261211451400153,327
LincolnCarholme9,607Lincoln2,4953,2083845122900356,402
LincolnCastle5,165Lincoln1,3871,84067745500203,443
LincolnGlebe5,292Lincoln1,4781,86856861900193,526
LincolnHartsholme4,522Lincoln1,6261,163951091000113,014
LincolnMinster5,053Lincoln1,4961,72237692400193,367
LincolnMoorland5,081Lincoln1,4611,738431141400163,386
LincolnPark5,922Lincoln1,3752,259941127700293,946
North KestevenBracebridge Heath and Waddington East6,386Sleaford2,8751,041134144200604,256
North KestevenSkellingthorpe2,390Lincoln85651130550001391,591
 Total73,111 21,79523,3331,2831,2875850043548,718

The full details of these calculations are given on the Lincoln seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Sleaford and North Hykeham

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Sleaford and North Hykeham, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Sleaford and North HykehamTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
North KestevenAshby de la Launde and Cranwell4,588Sleaford2,5825946274000363,321
North KestevenBassingham and Brant Broughton3,907Sleaford2,026486621804800252,827
North KestevenBillinghay, Martin and North Kyme4,069Sleaford1,6331,036123624700442,945
North KestevenBranston4,038Sleaford1,838849116363800452,922
North KestevenCliff Villages4,363Sleaford1,7711,10116685200583,156
North KestevenEagle, Swinderby and Witham St Hughs4,294Sleaford1,946911137125500463,107
North KestevenHeckington Rural4,395Boston and Skegness2,104619563502000323,181
North KestevenHeighington and Washingborough5,540Sleaford2,9265971343013100204,009
North KestevenKirkby la Thorpe and South Kyme1,893Boston and Skegness97429935281800171,371
North KestevenLeasingham and Rauceby1,719Sleaford86326068231200191,245
North KestevenMetheringham4,472Sleaford2,22077597702700463,235
North KestevenNorth Hykeham Forum2,027Lincoln85445267541400261,467
North KestevenNorth Hykeham Memorial2,112Lincoln830492128421400231,529
North KestevenNorth Hykeham Mill3,501Lincoln1,622719112123700312,533
North KestevenNorth Hykeham Moor1,917Lincoln748385582315400201,388
North KestevenNorth Hykeham Witham1,917Lincoln1,058226553670061,388
North KestevenOsbournby1,895Sleaford9982844072600171,372
North KestevenRuskington4,606Sleaford2,35276184732000413,331
North KestevenSleaford Castle2,182Sleaford82958583223000301,579
North KestevenSleaford Holdingham2,248Sleaford80564086452000311,627
North KestevenSleaford Navigation2,271Sleaford793624118452800351,643
North KestevenSleaford Quarrington and Mareham5,749Sleaford2,4451,235256776700804,160
North KestevenSleaford Westholme2,058Sleaford693538151423300321,489
North KestevenWaddington West2,027Lincoln8902167227450091,466
South KestevenBelvoir2,598Sleaford1,4223564340600131,880
South KestevenGrantham Arnoldfield180Grantham and Stamford76345150001131
South KestevenGrantham St Wulfram's248Grantham and Stamford101584122001178
South KestevenLoveden Heath2,121Sleaford9514328583300251,534
South KestevenPeascliffe and Ridgeway4,043Sleaford1,976707113424600422,926
South KestevenViking3,948Sleaford1,918739107113900442,858
 Total90,926 42,24417,0102,7231,9579690089565,798

The full details of these calculations are given on the Sleaford and North Hykeham seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Lincoln

The new seat of Lincoln is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Lincoln
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old Seat CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
LincolnAbbey5,644Lincoln1,9752,91212611210200365,263
LincolnBirchwood5,559Lincoln1,8091,765381351900213,787
LincolnBoultham5,230Lincoln1,2561,98058812000153,410
LincolnBracebridge5,524Lincoln1,7061,3261211451400153,327
LincolnCarholme5,897Lincoln2,4953,2083845122900356,402
LincolnCastle5,353Lincoln1,3871,84067745500203,443
LincolnGlebe4,987Lincoln1,4781,86856861900193,526
LincolnHartsholme4,834Lincoln1,6261,163951091000113,014
LincolnMinster5,353Lincoln1,4961,72237692400193,367
LincolnMoorland5,294Lincoln1,4611,738431141400163,386
LincolnPark4,030Lincoln1,3752,259941127700293,946
North KestevenNorth Hykeham Forum1,809Sleaford and North Hykeham85445267541400261,467
North KestevenNorth Hykeham Memorial2,195Sleaford and North Hykeham830492128421400231,529
North KestevenNorth Hykeham Mill3,702Sleaford and North Hykeham1,622719112123700312,533
North KestevenNorth Hykeham Moor1,854Sleaford and North Hykeham748385582315400201,388
North KestevenNorth Hykeham Witham1,919Sleaford and North Hykeham1,058226553670061,388
North KestevenSkellingthorpe2,818Lincoln85651130550001391,591
North KestevenWaddington West1,887Sleaford and North Hykeham8902167227450091,466
 Total73,889 24,92224,7821,6411,5848140049054,233

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Lincoln.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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