Mole Valley: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Mole Valley: Overview

 Projection: CON seat 

Implied MP at 2017: Paul Beresford  (CON)
County/Area: Surrey (South East)
Electorate: 72,400
Turnout: 78.4%

 Implied 2017 VotesImplied 2017 Share
CON35,09461.9%
LIB10,95319.3%
LAB7,86513.9%
Green1,4642.6%
UKIP1,3502.4%
CON Majority24,14142.6%

See overview of other seats in South East.

Mole Valley : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Mole Valley constituency, the 'South East' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatSouth EastAll GB
Party WinnerCONCONCON
Economic Position7° Right4° Right
National Position1° Int3° Nat1° Int
EU Leave %46%52%52%
British Identity26%29%29%
Good Health54%49%48%
UK Born96%88%88%
Good Education32%43%39%
Good Job48%56%51%
High SEC58%57%51%
Average Age50.049.248.5
ABC1 Class49%60%53%

Mole Valley ranks #442 for "Leave", #153 for "Right" and #384 for "National" out of 600 new seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Mole Valley: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Mole Valley been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

List of old seats forming part of Mole Valley

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Mole Valley

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Mole Valley, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Mole ValleyTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
GuildfordClandon and Horsley6,878Mole Valley3,87177454113350005,234
GuildfordEffingham2,109Mole Valley9601254823530001,605
GuildfordLovelace2,035Mole Valley84223642336120001,549
GuildfordSend3,362Mole Valley1,74649326938110002,557
GuildfordTillingbourne4,294Mole Valley2,30248144511290003,268
Mole ValleyBeare Green1,510Mole Valley67715021773310001,148
Mole ValleyBookham North4,514Mole Valley2,324251668701220003,435
Mole ValleyBookham South4,419Mole Valley2,19630271849980003,363
Mole ValleyBox Hill and Headley1,570Mole Valley74510126560230001,194
Mole ValleyBrockham, Betchworth and Buckland3,521Mole Valley1,67132454764740002,680
Mole ValleyCapel, Leigh and Newdigate3,400Mole Valley1,810209387811010002,588
Mole ValleyCharlwood1,817Mole Valley92819017140530001,382
Mole ValleyDorking North3,270Mole Valley1,206445618321860002,487
Mole ValleyDorking South5,497Mole Valley2,0987911,052422010004,184
Mole ValleyFetcham East3,011Mole Valley1,55224238089280002,291
Mole ValleyFetcham West3,270Mole Valley1,42727970659180002,489
Mole ValleyHolmwoods5,010Mole Valley1,8897447862431500003,812
Mole ValleyLeatherhead North5,542Mole Valley2,148919888176870004,218
Mole ValleyLeatherhead South3,347Mole Valley1,73029145449240002,548
Mole ValleyLeith Hill1,309Mole Valley608138212633000997
Mole ValleyMickleham, Westhumble and Pixham1,579Mole Valley6959633816550001,200
Mole ValleyOkewood1,506Mole Valley81011313326640001,146
Mole ValleyWestcott1,775Mole Valley85917125342260001,351
 Total74,545 35,0947,86510,9531,3501,46400056,726

The full details of these calculations are given on the Mole Valley seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Mole Valley

The new seat of Mole Valley is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Mole Valley
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old Seat CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
GuildfordClandon and Horsley6,886Mole Valley3,87177454113350005,234
GuildfordEffingham2,089Mole Valley9601254823530001,605
GuildfordLovelace1,884Mole Valley84223642336120001,549
GuildfordSend3,409Mole Valley1,74649326938110002,557
GuildfordTillingbourne4,394Mole Valley2,30248144511290003,268
Mole ValleyBeare Green1,521Mole Valley67715021773310001,148
Mole ValleyBookham North4,486Mole Valley2,324251668701220003,435
Mole ValleyBookham South4,405Mole Valley2,19630271849980003,363
Mole ValleyBox Hill and Headley1,706Mole Valley74510126560230001,194
Mole ValleyBrockham, Betchworth and Buckland3,480Mole Valley1,67132454764740002,680
Mole ValleyCapel, Leigh and Newdigate3,259Mole Valley1,810209387811010002,588
Mole ValleyCharlwood1,751Mole Valley92819017140530001,382
Mole ValleyDorking North3,123Mole Valley1,206445618321860002,487
Mole ValleyDorking South5,346Mole Valley2,0987911,052422010004,184
Mole ValleyFetcham East3,022Mole Valley1,55224238089280002,291
Mole ValleyFetcham West3,109Mole Valley1,42727970659180002,489
Mole ValleyHolmwoods4,677Mole Valley1,8897447862431500003,812
Mole ValleyLeatherhead North4,617Mole Valley2,148919888176870004,218
Mole ValleyLeatherhead South3,245Mole Valley1,73029145449240002,548
Mole ValleyLeith Hill1,312Mole Valley608138212633000997
Mole ValleyMickleham, Westhumble and Pixham1,488Mole Valley6959633816550001,200
Mole ValleyOkewood1,437Mole Valley81011313326640001,146
Mole ValleyWestcott1,754Mole Valley85917125342260001,351
 Total72,400 35,0947,86510,9531,3501,46400056,726

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Mole Valley.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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