Pembrokeshire South and Mid: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Pembrokeshire South and Mid: Overview

 Projection: CON seat 

Implied MP at 2017: Stephen Crabb  (CON)
County/Area: Dyfed (Wales)
Electorate: 74,070
Turnout: 77.4%

 Implied 2017 VotesImplied 2017 Share
CON26,88246.9%
LAB24,93143.5%
Plaid2,5094.4%
UKIP1,3172.3%
MIN9611.7%
LIB7021.2%
OTH280.0%
CON Majority1,9513.4%

See overview of other seats in Wales.

Pembrokeshire South and Mid : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Pembrokeshire South and Mid constituency, the 'Wales' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatWalesAll GB
Party WinnerCONLABCON
Economic Position1° Left10° Left
National Position2° Nat3° Int1° Int
EU Leave %58%53%52%
British Identity32%26%29%
Good Health45%47%48%
UK Born86%95%88%
Good Education27%36%39%
Good Job41%46%51%
High SEC37%46%51%
Average Age46.749.648.5
ABC1 Class38%47%53%

Pembrokeshire South and Mid ranks #202 for "Leave", #366 for "Right" and #309 for "National" out of 600 new seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Pembrokeshire South and Mid: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Pembrokeshire South and Mid been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

List of old seats forming part of Pembrokeshire South and Mid

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire SouthTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Plaid
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
CarmarthenshireCarmarthen Town North3,886Carmarthen9201,18357330610002,803
CarmarthenshireCarmarthen Town South2,915Carmarthen74090675260356002,103
CarmarthenshireCarmarthen Town West3,984Carmarthen1,11799871350652002,873
CarmarthenshireCynwyl Elfed2,284Carmarthen77250015390321001,647
CarmarthenshireLaugharne Township2,156Carmarthen7067451129063001,554
CarmarthenshireLlanboidy1,589Carmarthen5543248220237001,145
CarmarthenshireLlansteffan1,495Carmarthen48633920250209001,079
CarmarthenshireSt Clears2,259Carmarthen740532196250136001,629
CarmarthenshireTrelech1,573Carmarthen54229989170188001,135
CarmarthenshireWhitland1,712Carmarthen55546422190174001,234
PembrokeshireAmroth940Pembrokeshire South and Mid436199111401800678
PembrokeshireCarew1,152Pembrokeshire South and Mid43134372702300831
PembrokeshireEast Williamston1,865Pembrokeshire South and Mid7185261048043001,345
PembrokeshireHundleton1,422Pembrokeshire South and Mid535436826020001,025
PembrokeshireKilgetty / Begelly1,675Pembrokeshire South and Mid6754571922034001,207
PembrokeshireLampeter Velfrey1,185Pembrokeshire South and Mid56622492003500854
PembrokeshireLamphey1,274Pembrokeshire South and Mid532327351301300920
PembrokeshireManorbier1,581Pembrokeshire South and Mid5974731736018001,141
PembrokeshireMartletwy1,060Pembrokeshire South and Mid517190241502000766
PembrokeshireNarberth1,445Pembrokeshire South and Mid5254441019045001,043
PembrokeshireNarberth Rural1,167Pembrokeshire South and Mid497274191803300841
PembrokeshirePembroke Dock: Central1,346Pembrokeshire South and Mid34758491102000971
PembrokeshirePembroke Dock: Llanion2,126Pembrokeshire South and Mid4989481342032001,533
PembrokeshirePembroke Dock: Market1,359Pembrokeshire South and Mid36556672601800982
PembrokeshirePembroke Dock: Pennar2,539Pembrokeshire South and Mid3321,403236059001,832
PembrokeshirePembroke: Monkton1,256Pembrokeshire South and Mid39043374802700905
PembrokeshirePembroke: St Mary North1,568Pembrokeshire South and Mid585463860016001,132
PembrokeshirePembroke: St Mary South1,086Pembrokeshire South and Mid41028891705800782
PembrokeshirePembroke: St Michael1,813Pembrokeshire South and Mid8433911338022001,307
PembrokeshirePenally1,318Pembrokeshire South and Mid5722081612014200950
PembrokeshireSaundersfoot1,982Pembrokeshire South and Mid9693464245027001,429
PembrokeshireTenby: North1,580Pembrokeshire South and Mid58430021100225001,140
PembrokeshireTenby: South1,956Pembrokeshire South and Mid7175487532039001,411
 Total58,548 19,77316,66195590503,9330042,227

The full details of these calculations are given on the Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Preseli Pembrokeshire

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Preseli Pembrokeshire, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Preseli PembrokeshireTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Plaid
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
PembrokeshireBurton1,405Pembrokeshire South and Mid4964461200133621,014
PembrokeshireCamrose1,907Pembrokeshire South and Mid6965686290205511,375
PembrokeshireCilgerran1,551Ceredigion and Pembrokeshire North52642923180794111,117
PembrokeshireClydau1,098Ceredigion and Pembrokeshire North273187218030380791
PembrokeshireCrymych1,916Ceredigion and Pembrokeshire North57443072003094011,381
PembrokeshireDinas Cross1,295Ceredigion and Pembrokeshire North2561734378046140934
PembrokeshireFishguard North East1,420Ceredigion and Pembrokeshire North50636025400573521,025
PembrokeshireFishguard North West1,189Ceredigion and Pembrokeshire North2664496211056121857
PembrokeshireGoodwick1,535Ceredigion and Pembrokeshire North3724741141901151101,105
PembrokeshireHaverfordwest: Castle1,795Pembrokeshire South and Mid4717522930261301,294
PembrokeshireHaverfordwest: Garth2,072Pembrokeshire South and Mid64769539340354411,495
PembrokeshireHaverfordwest: Portfield1,840Pembrokeshire South and Mid6855379280185011,328
PembrokeshireHaverfordwest: Prendergast1,538Pembrokeshire South and Mid53845411320294411,109
PembrokeshireHaverfordwest: Priory1,881Pembrokeshire South and Mid6066269380294721,357
PembrokeshireJohnston1,916Pembrokeshire South and Mid58464419380465011,382
PembrokeshireLetterston1,769Pembrokeshire South and Mid77233525210823811,274
PembrokeshireLlangwm1,781Pembrokeshire South and Mid57160910310174511,284
PembrokeshireLlanrhian1,118Pembrokeshire South and Mid3893112814032302806
PembrokeshireMaenclochog2,380Pembrokeshire South and Mid697589112503405311,716
PembrokeshireMartletwy423 18991650590305
PembrokeshireMerlin's Bridge1,690Pembrokeshire South and Mid3987409130243311,218
PembrokeshireMilford: Central1,533Pembrokeshire South and Mid39245303502022121,105
PembrokeshireMilford: East1,641Pembrokeshire South and Mid4496610410121901,182
PembrokeshireMilford: Hakin1,712Pembrokeshire South and Mid5735421420274911,235
PembrokeshireMilford: Hubberston1,903Pembrokeshire South and Mid3848750610173411,372
PembrokeshireMilford: North2,110Pembrokeshire South and Mid861586029063911,522
PembrokeshireMilford: West1,723Pembrokeshire South and Mid32546113204012301,243
PembrokeshireNewport878Ceredigion and Pembrokeshire North267225449063231632
PembrokeshireNeyland: East1,657Pembrokeshire South and Mid209952010081411,194
PembrokeshireNeyland: West1,678Pembrokeshire South and Mid3677510370213121,209
PembrokeshireRudbaxton708Pembrokeshire South and Mid33414251105140511
PembrokeshireScleddau1,130Ceredigion and Pembrokeshire North482232147062180815
PembrokeshireSolva1,445Pembrokeshire South and Mid41150624130187011,043
PembrokeshireSt David's1,408Pembrokeshire South and Mid43945339120422911,015
PembrokeshireSt Dogmaels1,727Ceredigion and Pembrokeshire North53847066230984811,244
PembrokeshireSt Ishmael's1,078Pembrokeshire South and Mid442279513013241777
PembrokeshireThe Havens1,169Pembrokeshire South and Mid44734321404331844
PembrokeshireWiston1,521Pembrokeshire South and Mid8691592210301411,096
 Total58,540 18,30117,9891,10585502,7101,2113542,206

The full details of these calculations are given on the Preseli Pembrokeshire seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Pembrokeshire South and Mid

The new seat of Pembrokeshire South and Mid is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Pembrokeshire South and Mid
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old Seat CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Plaid
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
PembrokeshireAmroth909Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South436199111401800678
PembrokeshireBurton1,401Preseli Pembrokeshire4964461200133621,014
PembrokeshireCamrose1,992Preseli Pembrokeshire6965686290205511,375
PembrokeshireCarew1,106Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South43134372702300831
PembrokeshireEast Williamston1,816Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South7185261048043001,345
PembrokeshireHaverfordwest: Castle1,466Preseli Pembrokeshire4717522930261301,294
PembrokeshireHaverfordwest: Garth1,539Preseli Pembrokeshire64769539340354411,495
PembrokeshireHaverfordwest: Portfield1,642Preseli Pembrokeshire6855379280185011,328
PembrokeshireHaverfordwest: Prendergast1,467Preseli Pembrokeshire53845411320294411,109
PembrokeshireHaverfordwest: Priory1,731Preseli Pembrokeshire6066269380294721,357
PembrokeshireHundleton1,346Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South535436826020001,025
PembrokeshireJohnston1,867Preseli Pembrokeshire58464419380465011,382
PembrokeshireKilgetty / Begelly1,563Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South6754571922034001,207
PembrokeshireLampeter Velfrey1,211Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South56622492003500854
PembrokeshireLamphey1,318Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South532327351301300920
PembrokeshireLetterston1,706Preseli Pembrokeshire77233525210823811,274
PembrokeshireLlangwm1,724Preseli Pembrokeshire57160910310174511,284
PembrokeshireLlanrhian1,155Preseli Pembrokeshire3893112814032302806
PembrokeshireMaenclochog2,248Preseli Pembrokeshire697589112503405311,716
PembrokeshireManorbier1,568Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South5974731736018001,141
PembrokeshireMartletwy1,510Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South7062813020025901,071
PembrokeshireMerlin's Bridge1,478Preseli Pembrokeshire3987409130243311,218
PembrokeshireMilford: Central1,389Preseli Pembrokeshire39245303502022121,105
PembrokeshireMilford: East1,436Preseli Pembrokeshire4496610410121901,182
PembrokeshireMilford: Hakin1,672Preseli Pembrokeshire5735421420274911,235
PembrokeshireMilford: Hubberston1,738Preseli Pembrokeshire3848750610173411,372
PembrokeshireMilford: North1,854Preseli Pembrokeshire861586029063911,522
PembrokeshireMilford: West1,441Preseli Pembrokeshire32546113204012301,243
PembrokeshireNarberth1,483Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South5254441019045001,043
PembrokeshireNarberth Rural1,143Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South497274191803300841
PembrokeshireNeyland: East1,697Preseli Pembrokeshire209952010081411,194
PembrokeshireNeyland: West1,511Preseli Pembrokeshire3677510370213121,209
PembrokeshirePembroke Dock: Central1,007Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South34758491102000971
PembrokeshirePembroke Dock: Llanion1,853Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South4989481342032001,533
PembrokeshirePembroke Dock: Market1,216Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South36556672601800982
PembrokeshirePembroke Dock: Pennar2,257Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South3321,403236059001,832
PembrokeshirePembroke: Monkton962Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South39043374802700905
PembrokeshirePembroke: St Mary North1,380Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South585463860016001,132
PembrokeshirePembroke: St Mary South946Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South41028891705800782
PembrokeshirePembroke: St Michael1,998Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South8433911338022001,307
PembrokeshirePenally1,188Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South5722081612014200950
PembrokeshireRudbaxton816Preseli Pembrokeshire33414251105140511
PembrokeshireSaundersfoot1,867Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South9693464245027001,429
PembrokeshireSolva1,144Preseli Pembrokeshire41150624130187011,043
PembrokeshireSt David's1,413Preseli Pembrokeshire43945339120422911,015
PembrokeshireSt Ishmael's1,049Preseli Pembrokeshire442279513013241777
PembrokeshireTenby: North1,574Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South58430021100225001,140
PembrokeshireTenby: South1,661Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South7175487532039001,411
PembrokeshireThe Havens1,118Preseli Pembrokeshire44734321404331844
PembrokeshireWiston1,494Preseli Pembrokeshire8691592210301411,096
 Total74,070 26,88224,9317021,31702,5099612857,330

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Pembrokeshire South and Mid.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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