Ribble South: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Ribble South: Overview

 Projection: CON seat 

Implied MP at 2017: Seema Kennedy  (CON)
County/Area: Lancashire (North West)
Electorate: 78,502
Turnout: 76.9%

 Implied 2017 VotesImplied 2017 Share
CON30,05549.8%
LAB25,95043.0%
LIB2,4924.1%
UKIP9971.7%
Green7521.2%
OTH1330.2%
CON Majority4,1056.8%

See overview of other seats in North West.

Ribble South : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Ribble South constituency, the 'North West' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatNorth WestAll GB
Party WinnerCONLABCON
Economic Position3° Right6° Left
National Position8° Nat2° Nat1° Int
EU Leave %59%54%52%
British Identity33%28%29%
Good Health52%46%48%
UK Born76%92%88%
Good Education54%37%39%
Good Job61%49%51%
High SEC59%48%51%
Average Age43.248.648.5
ABC1 Class68%50%53%

Ribble South ranks #177 for "Leave", #263 for "Right" and #174 for "National" out of 600 new seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Ribble South: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Ribble South been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

List of old seats forming part of Ribble South

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Ribble South

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Ribble South, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Ribble SouthTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
ChorleyEccleston and Mawdesley4,600Chorley1,9471,22437102800123,330
ChorleyLostock4,887Ribble South2,1691,2383059340073,537
South RibbleBroad Oak3,353Ribble South1,2967853136190082,427
South RibbleBroadfield3,909Ribble South9961,685419350092,829
South RibbleBuckshaw and Worden3,232Ribble South1,37186192750032,339
South RibbleCharnock2,867Ribble South9121,025923820052,074
South RibbleEarnshaw Bridge3,767Ribble South1,2471,25046167700102,727
South RibbleFarington East297Ribble South97105840001215
South RibbleHoole3,165Ribble South1,43065360126140072,290
South RibbleHowick and Priory5,596Ribble South2,1511,1345625413400174,052
South RibbleLeyland Central3,802Ribble South1,1521,3301262311000122,753
South RibbleLongton and Hutton West4,390Ribble South2,043899153591200103,176
South RibbleMiddleforth5,997Ribble South1,7222,2861561412500124,342
South RibbleMoss Side3,224Ribble South1,277936268470032,333
South RibbleNew Longton and Hutton East3,347Ribble South1,5516678343710082,423
South RibbleSeven Stars3,454Ribble South9641,3933980150092,500
South RibbleSt Ambrose3,490Ribble South9631,40912413500122,526
West LancashireHesketh-with-Becconsall3,179Southport1,5407171016110062,300
West LancashireNorth Meols3,219Southport1,3217935315160062,330
West LancashireRufford1,603Lancashire West742306413000951,160
West LancashireTarleton4,372Southport2,08886216107300883,164
 Total75,750 28,97921,5582,0711,3864930034054,827

The full details of these calculations are given on the Ribble South seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Ribble Valley

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Ribble Valley, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Ribble ValleyTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Ribble ValleyAighton, Bailey and Chaigley1,424Lancashire North661241570500001,009
Ribble ValleyAlston and Hothersall2,115Lancashire North1,024378710240001,497
Ribble ValleyBillington and Old Langho2,536Pendle and Ribble Valley1,229452910240001,796
Ribble ValleyBowland, Newton and Slaidburn1,115Lancashire North6501198013000790
Ribble ValleyChatburn1,053Lancashire North48321925019000746
Ribble ValleyChipping1,068Lancashire North56916011016000756
Ribble ValleyClayton-le-Dale with Ramsgreave2,167Pendle and Ribble Valley1,129341360280001,534
Ribble ValleyDerby and Thornley2,405Lancashire North9186031360470001,704
Ribble ValleyDilworth2,090Lancashire North914463800230001,480
Ribble ValleyEdisford and Low Moor2,220Pendle and Ribble Valley6146542630410001,572
Ribble ValleyGisburn, Rimington1,137Lancashire North55820729010000804
Ribble ValleyLangho1,781Pendle and Ribble Valley832370450140001,261
Ribble ValleyLittlemoor2,414Pendle and Ribble Valley6146354010590001,709
Ribble ValleyMellor2,228Pendle and Ribble Valley1,162346390300001,577
Ribble ValleyPrimrose2,457Pendle and Ribble Valley4996495390520001,739
Ribble ValleyRead and Simonstone2,069Pendle and Ribble Valley1,099324190230001,465
Ribble ValleyRibchester1,267Lancashire North59221761028000898
Ribble ValleySabden1,152Pendle and Ribble Valley46731910020000816
Ribble ValleySalthill2,477Pendle and Ribble Valley8904723320600001,754
Ribble ValleySt Mary's2,305Pendle and Ribble Valley8294902570550001,631
Ribble ValleyWaddington and West Bradford2,333Lancashire North1,408178200470001,653
Ribble ValleyWhalley3,163Pendle and Ribble Valley1,645516310470002,239
Ribble ValleyWilpshire2,074Pendle and Ribble Valley1,080336210300001,467
Ribble ValleyWiswell and Pendleton1,048Pendle and Ribble Valley49620332011000742
South RibbleBamber Bridge East3,732Ribble South1,1571,377660420002,642
South RibbleBamber Bridge West3,500Ribble South1,0471,352480320002,479
South RibbleCoupe Green and Gregson Lane3,498Pendle and Ribble Valley1,5126914802250002,476
South RibbleFarington East2,422Ribble South7688071160240001,715
South RibbleFarington West3,090Ribble South1,2108111370300002,188
South RibbleLostock Hall5,412Ribble South1,8861,805770620003,830
South RibbleNew Longton and Hutton East236Ribble South107431008000168
South RibbleSamlesbury and Walton3,183Pendle and Ribble Valley1,333843450330002,254
South RibbleWalton-le-Dale East3,290Ribble South1,1651,066550430002,329
South RibbleWalton-le-Dale West3,509Ribble South1,3741,033320460002,485
 Total77,970 31,92118,7203,24801,31600055,205

The full details of these calculations are given on the Ribble Valley seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Ribble South

The new seat of Ribble South is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Ribble South
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old Seat CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
ChorleyLostock3,381Ribble South2,1691,2383059340073,537
South RibbleBamber Bridge East3,184Ribble Valley1,1571,377660420002,642
South RibbleBamber Bridge West3,006Ribble Valley1,0471,352480320002,479
South RibbleBroad Oak3,534Ribble South1,2967853136190082,427
South RibbleBroadfield3,573Ribble South9961,685419350092,829
South RibbleBuckshaw and Worden3,642Ribble South1,37186192750032,339
South RibbleCharnock2,785Ribble South9121,025923820052,074
South RibbleEarnshaw Bridge3,438Ribble South1,2471,25046167700102,727
South RibbleFarington East305Ribble South951001403000212
South RibbleFarington East2,486Ribble Valley7708121104210011,718
South RibbleFarington West2,844Ribble Valley1,2108111370300002,188
South RibbleHoole3,237Ribble South1,43065360126140072,290
South RibbleHowick and Priory5,486Ribble South2,1511,1345625413400174,052
South RibbleLeyland Central3,437Ribble South1,1521,3301262311000122,753
South RibbleLongton and Hutton West4,550Ribble South2,043899153591200103,176
South RibbleLostock Hall4,913Ribble Valley1,8861,805770620003,830
South RibbleMiddleforth5,370Ribble South1,7222,2861561412500124,342
South RibbleMoss Side3,082Ribble South1,277936268470032,333
South RibbleNew Longton and Hutton East3,390Ribble South1,5496638740740072,420
South RibbleNew Longton and Hutton East239Ribble Valley10947635001171
South RibbleSeven Stars2,998Ribble South9641,3933980150092,500
South RibbleSt Ambrose3,167Ribble South9631,40912413500122,526
South RibbleWalton-le-Dale East3,172Ribble Valley1,1651,066550430002,329
South RibbleWalton-le-Dale West3,283Ribble Valley1,3741,033320460002,485
 Total78,502 30,05525,9502,4929977520013360,379

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Ribble South.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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