Selby and Ainsty: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Selby and Ainsty: Overview

 Projection: CON seat 

Implied MP at 2017: Nigel Adams  (CON)
County/Area: North Yorkshire (Yorks/Humber)
Electorate: 72,685
Turnout: 77.1%

 Implied 2017 VotesImplied 2017 Share
CON Majority13,77024.6%

See overview of other seats in Yorks/Humber.

Selby and Ainsty : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Selby and Ainsty constituency, the 'Yorks/Humber' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatYorks/HumberAll GB
Economic Position9° Right3° Left
National Position9° Nat6° Nat1° Int
EU Leave %58%58%52%
British Identity27%28%29%
Good Health49%46%48%
UK Born95%92%88%
Good Education40%36%39%
Good Job53%47%51%
High SEC55%46%51%
Average Age50.348.548.5
ABC1 Class55%49%53%

Selby and Ainsty ranks #189 for "Leave", #126 for "Right" and #135 for "National" out of 600 new seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Selby and Ainsty: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015


This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Selby and Ainsty been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

List of old seats forming part of Selby and Ainsty

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Selby and Ainsty

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Selby and Ainsty, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Selby and AinstyTransfer-adjusted Results
New SeatCON
HarrogateMarston Moor2,273Selby and Ainsty949223505500001,682
HarrogateOuseburn2,905Selby and Ainsty1,5105181091300002,150
HarrogateRibston2,367Selby and Ainsty1,159293298200001,752
HarrogateSpofforth with Lower Wharfedale2,445Selby and Ainsty1,3033071089100001,809
SelbyAppleton Roebuck and Church Fenton4,551Selby and Ainsty2,352897115500003,369
SelbyBarlby Village2,272Selby and Ainsty830794183900001,681
SelbyBrayton4,905Selby and Ainsty2,3071,176905700003,630
SelbyByram and Brotherton2,354Selby and Ainsty6947762424800001,742
SelbyCamblesforth and Carlton4,700Selby and Ainsty2,0469563943700003,478
SelbyCawood and Wistow2,387Selby and Ainsty1,21253221100001,766
SelbyDerwent4,281Selby and Ainsty2,101939794900003,168
SelbyEggborough2,335Selby and Ainsty903691924300001,729
SelbyEscrick2,028Selby and Ainsty1,07933484400001,501
SelbyHambleton2,030Selby and Ainsty986475192100001,501
SelbyMonk Fryston2,380Selby and Ainsty1,142585241000001,761
SelbyRiccall1,839Selby and Ainsty77249491400001,361
SelbySelby East5,225Selby and Ainsty1,5662,07510312300003,867
SelbySelby West7,357Selby and Ainsty2,4102,5617140400005,446
SelbySherburn in Elmet5,305Selby and Ainsty2,0571,6681316900003,925
SelbySouth Milford1,811Selby and Ainsty89641622700001,341
SelbyTadcaster5,655Selby and Ainsty2,6731,3191742000004,186
SelbyThorpe Willoughby2,144Selby and Ainsty908628232800001,587
SelbyWhitley2,216Selby and Ainsty1,064492533100001,640
 Total75,765 32,91919,1492,2931,711000056,072

The full details of these calculations are given on the Selby and Ainsty seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Selby and Ainsty

The new seat of Selby and Ainsty is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Selby and Ainsty
Old Seat CON
HarrogateMarston Moor2,251Selby and Ainsty949223505500001,682
HarrogateOuseburn2,478Selby and Ainsty1,5105181091300002,150
HarrogateRibston2,362Selby and Ainsty1,159293298200001,752
HarrogateSpofforth with Lower Wharfedale2,443Selby and Ainsty1,3033071089100001,809
SelbyAppleton Roebuck and Church Fenton4,422Selby and Ainsty2,352897115500003,369
SelbyBarlby Village2,072Selby and Ainsty830794183900001,681
SelbyBrayton4,721Selby and Ainsty2,3071,176905700003,630
SelbyByram and Brotherton2,196Selby and Ainsty6947762424800001,742
SelbyCamblesforth and Carlton4,498Selby and Ainsty2,0469563943700003,478
SelbyCawood and Wistow2,404Selby and Ainsty1,21253221100001,766
SelbyDerwent4,270Selby and Ainsty2,101939794900003,168
SelbyEggborough2,153Selby and Ainsty903691924300001,729
SelbyEscrick1,903Selby and Ainsty1,07933484400001,501
SelbyHambleton2,090Selby and Ainsty986475192100001,501
SelbyMonk Fryston2,322Selby and Ainsty1,142585241000001,761
SelbyRiccall1,896Selby and Ainsty77249491400001,361
SelbySelby East4,450Selby and Ainsty1,5662,07510312300003,867
SelbySelby West6,581Selby and Ainsty2,4102,5617140400005,446
SelbySherburn in Elmet5,023Selby and Ainsty2,0571,6681316900003,925
SelbySouth Milford2,045Selby and Ainsty89641622700001,341
SelbyTadcaster5,677Selby and Ainsty2,6731,3191742000004,186
SelbyThorpe Willoughby2,188Selby and Ainsty908628232800001,587
SelbyWhitley2,240Selby and Ainsty1,064492533100001,640
 Total72,685 32,91919,1492,2931,711000056,072

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Selby and Ainsty.

© 2018 Electoral Calculus Ltd
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