Sevenoaks: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Sevenoaks: Overview

 Projection: CON seat 

Implied MP at 2017: Michael Fallon  (CON)
County/Area: Kent (South East)
Electorate: 72,561
Turnout: 74.1%

 Implied 2017 VotesImplied 2017 Share
CON34,57364.3%
LAB11,12420.7%
LIB4,3338.1%
UKIP1,9743.7%
Green1,7873.3%
CON Majority23,44943.6%

See overview of other seats in South East.

Sevenoaks : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Sevenoaks constituency, the 'South East' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatSouth EastAll GB
Party WinnerCONCONCON
Economic Position8° Right4° Right
National Position7° Nat3° Nat1° Int
EU Leave %54%52%52%
British Identity24%29%29%
Good Health45%49%48%
UK Born86%88%88%
Good Education38%43%39%
Good Job50%56%51%
High SEC45%57%51%
Average Age44.249.248.5
ABC1 Class52%60%53%

Sevenoaks ranks #282 for "Leave", #138 for "Right" and #205 for "National" out of 600 new seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Sevenoaks: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Sevenoaks been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

List of old seats forming part of Sevenoaks

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Sevenoaks

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Sevenoaks, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: SevenoaksTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
SevenoaksAsh and New Ash Green4,688Sevenoaks2,261646225711750003,378
SevenoaksBrasted, Chevening and Sundridge4,786Sevenoaks2,477443320271830003,450
SevenoaksCrockenhill and Well Hill1,471Sevenoaks46725587222280001,059
SevenoaksDunton Green and Riverhead3,862Sevenoaks1,75860032621790002,784
SevenoaksEynsford1,379Sevenoaks71115791629000994
SevenoaksFarningham, Horton Kirby and South Darenth3,662Sevenoaks1,6877326874810002,642
SevenoaksFawkham and West Kingsdown4,612Sevenoaks2,342653831331120003,323
SevenoaksHalstead, Knockholt and Badgers Mount2,656Sevenoaks1,6911264822270001,914
SevenoaksHextable3,119Sevenoaks1,41062051112560002,249
SevenoaksKemsing3,216Sevenoaks1,475263345208280002,319
SevenoaksOtford and Shoreham3,471Sevenoaks1,6064232261451010002,501
SevenoaksSeal and Weald3,162Sevenoaks1,64329226215670002,279
SevenoaksSevenoaks Eastern3,135Sevenoaks1,110454563211120002,260
SevenoaksSevenoaks Kippington3,696Sevenoaks2,0244567912920002,663
SevenoaksSevenoaks Northern3,395Sevenoaks1,38736259841590002,447
SevenoaksSevenoaks Town and St John's4,986Sevenoaks2,2435046011061400003,594
SevenoaksSwanley Christchurch and Swanley Village4,366Sevenoaks2,04882593124560003,146
SevenoaksSwanley St Mary's3,324Sevenoaks1,0991,07760127330002,396
SevenoaksSwanley White Oak4,635Sevenoaks1,6441,303971821150003,341
SevenoaksWesterham and Crockham Hill3,439Sevenoaks1,562535562261000002,479
 Total71,060 32,64510,7264,2791,8951,67300051,218

The full details of these calculations are given on the Sevenoaks seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Tonbridge and Malling

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Tonbridge and Malling, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Tonbridge and MallingTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
SevenoaksCowden and Hever1,611Tonbridge8452303051310001,187
SevenoaksEdenbridge North and East3,600Tonbridge1,815519129531370002,653
SevenoaksEdenbridge South and West3,348Tonbridge1,519608761401240002,467
SevenoaksLeigh and Chiddingstone Causeway1,742Tonbridge1,0701302233300001,285
SevenoaksPenshurst, Fordcombe and Chiddingstone1,926Tonbridge8921892577740001,419
Tonbridge and MallingBorough Green and Long Mill5,386Tonbridge2,2701,3031421071460003,968
Tonbridge and MallingCage Green3,576Tonbridge1,747524164791210002,635
Tonbridge and MallingCastle3,882Tonbridge1,785456386162170002,860
Tonbridge and MallingDowns and Mereworth3,288Tonbridge1,82635637841190002,422
Tonbridge and MallingEast Malling3,964Chatham and The Mallings1,333760619140690002,921
Tonbridge and MallingHadlow and East Peckham5,640Tonbridge2,885760952211940004,155
Tonbridge and MallingHigham3,719Tonbridge1,859574131451320002,741
Tonbridge and MallingHildenborough3,847Tonbridge1,904453261841320002,834
Tonbridge and MallingJudd4,036Tonbridge1,4849142951371440002,974
Tonbridge and MallingKings Hill6,058Chatham and The Mallings3,37886465113430004,463
Tonbridge and MallingMedway4,243Tonbridge1,8509161041061490003,125
Tonbridge and MallingTrench3,758Tonbridge1,466879163188730002,769
Tonbridge and MallingVauxhall3,922Tonbridge1,524882304301510002,891
Tonbridge and MallingWateringbury1,631Tonbridge8732391325520001,202
Tonbridge and MallingWest Malling and Leybourne4,564Chatham and The Mallings1,965757439118840003,363
Tonbridge and MallingWrotham, Ightham and Stansted3,493Sevenoaks1,92839854791140002,573
 Total77,234 36,21812,7113,7861,8562,33600056,907

The full details of these calculations are given on the Tonbridge and Malling seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Sevenoaks

The new seat of Sevenoaks is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Sevenoaks
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old Seat CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
SevenoaksAsh and New Ash Green4,513Sevenoaks2,261646225711750003,378
SevenoaksBrasted, Chevening and Sundridge4,861Sevenoaks2,477443320271830003,450
SevenoaksCrockenhill and Well Hill1,513Sevenoaks46725587222280001,059
SevenoaksDunton Green and Riverhead3,589Sevenoaks1,75860032621790002,784
SevenoaksEynsford1,498Sevenoaks71115791629000994
SevenoaksFarningham, Horton Kirby and South Darenth3,724Sevenoaks1,6877326874810002,642
SevenoaksFawkham and West Kingsdown4,801Sevenoaks2,342653831331120003,323
SevenoaksHalstead, Knockholt and Badgers Mount2,675Sevenoaks1,6911264822270001,914
SevenoaksHextable3,287Sevenoaks1,41062051112560002,249
SevenoaksKemsing3,241Sevenoaks1,475263345208280002,319
SevenoaksOtford and Shoreham3,485Sevenoaks1,6064232261451010002,501
SevenoaksSeal and Weald3,045Sevenoaks1,64329226215670002,279
SevenoaksSevenoaks Eastern2,924Sevenoaks1,110454563211120002,260
SevenoaksSevenoaks Kippington3,561Sevenoaks2,0244567912920002,663
SevenoaksSevenoaks Northern3,030Sevenoaks1,38736259841590002,447
SevenoaksSevenoaks Town and St John's4,351Sevenoaks2,2435046011061400003,594
SevenoaksSwanley Christchurch and Swanley Village4,299Sevenoaks2,04882593124560003,146
SevenoaksSwanley St Mary's3,004Sevenoaks1,0991,07760127330002,396
SevenoaksSwanley White Oak4,603Sevenoaks1,6441,303971821150003,341
SevenoaksWesterham and Crockham Hill3,284Sevenoaks1,562535562261000002,479
Tonbridge and MallingWrotham, Ightham and Stansted3,273Tonbridge and Malling1,92839854791140002,573
 Total72,561 34,57311,1244,3331,9741,78700053,791

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Sevenoaks.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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