Shropshire North: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Shropshire North: Overview

 Projection: CON seat 

Implied MP at 2017: Owen Paterson  (CON)
County/Area: Shropshire (West Midlands)
Electorate: 77,768
Turnout: 71.5%

 Implied 2017 VotesImplied 2017 Share
CON33,64360.5%
LAB17,29031.1%
LIB2,9475.3%
Green1,7223.1%
CON Majority16,35329.4%

See overview of other seats in West Midlands.

Shropshire North : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Shropshire North constituency, the 'West Midlands' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatWest MidlandsAll GB
Party WinnerCONCONCON
Economic Position9° Right2° Right
National Position13° Nat9° Nat1° Int
EU Leave %60%59%52%
British Identity23%28%29%
Good Health43%45%48%
UK Born95%89%88%
Good Education29%35%39%
Good Job44%48%51%
High SEC40%46%51%
Average Age49.348.748.5
ABC1 Class43%49%53%

Shropshire North ranks #155 for "Leave", #113 for "Right" and #75 for "National" out of 600 new seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Shropshire North: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Shropshire North been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

List of old seats forming part of Shropshire North

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Shropshire North

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Shropshire North, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Shropshire NorthTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
ShropshireCheswardine3,263Shropshire North1,608591390140002,252
ShropshireEllesmere Urban2,964Shropshire North1,1203904880480002,046
ShropshireGobowen, Selattyn and Weston Rhyn5,451Shropshire North2,3421,266570990003,764
ShropshireHodnet3,395Shropshire North1,54274970460002,344
ShropshireLlanymynech3,115Shropshire North1,405606700690002,150
ShropshireMarket Drayton East3,465Shropshire North1,2881,010280660002,392
ShropshireMarket Drayton West6,916Shropshire North2,2282,30212701180004,775
ShropshireOswestry East6,975Shropshire North2,1522,37116401280004,815
ShropshireOswestry South3,286Shropshire North1,14249919804310002,270
ShropshireOswestry West2,935Shropshire North1,2595901190570002,025
ShropshirePrees3,323Shropshire North1,47674180700002,295
ShropshireRuyton and Baschurch3,148Shropshire North1,0686623990440002,173
ShropshireShawbury3,598Shropshire North2,026402250320002,485
ShropshireSt Martin's3,328Shropshire North1,223990370490002,299
ShropshireSt Oswald3,280Shropshire North1,777414350400002,266
ShropshireThe Meres3,605Shropshire North2,103260790460002,488
ShropshireWem6,448Shropshire North1,8681,55086101730004,452
ShropshireWhitchurch North5,622Shropshire North2,9696771490860003,881
ShropshireWhitchurch South3,189Shropshire North1,757376290400002,202
ShropshireWhittington3,228Shropshire North1,290844280660002,228
 Total80,534 33,64317,2902,94701,72200055,602

The full details of these calculations are given on the Shropshire North seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Shropshire North

The new seat of Shropshire North is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Shropshire North
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old Seat CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
ShropshireCheswardine3,135Shropshire North1,608591390140002,252
ShropshireEllesmere Urban3,060Shropshire North1,1203904880480002,046
ShropshireGobowen, Selattyn and Weston Rhyn5,457Shropshire North2,3421,266570990003,764
ShropshireHodnet2,780Shropshire North1,54274970460002,344
ShropshireLlanymynech3,291Shropshire North1,405606700690002,150
ShropshireMarket Drayton East3,589Shropshire North1,2881,010280660002,392
ShropshireMarket Drayton West6,500Shropshire North2,2282,30212701180004,775
ShropshireOswestry East6,665Shropshire North2,1522,37116401280004,815
ShropshireOswestry South3,082Shropshire North1,14249919804310002,270
ShropshireOswestry West2,599Shropshire North1,2595901190570002,025
ShropshirePrees3,347Shropshire North1,47674180700002,295
ShropshireRuyton and Baschurch2,992Shropshire North1,0686623990440002,173
ShropshireShawbury3,383Shropshire North2,026402250320002,485
ShropshireSt Martin's3,428Shropshire North1,223990370490002,299
ShropshireSt Oswald3,186Shropshire North1,777414350400002,266
ShropshireThe Meres3,500Shropshire North2,103260790460002,488
ShropshireWem6,233Shropshire North1,8681,55086101730004,452
ShropshireWhitchurch North5,232Shropshire North2,9696771490860003,881
ShropshireWhitchurch South3,146Shropshire North1,757376290400002,202
ShropshireWhittington3,163Shropshire North1,290844280660002,228
 Total77,768 33,64317,2902,94701,72200055,602

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Shropshire North.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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