Surrey East: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Surrey East: Overview

 Projection: CON seat 

Implied MP at 2017: Sam Gyimah  (CON)
County/Area: Surrey (South East)
Electorate: 77,146
Turnout: 76.7%

 Implied 2017 VotesImplied 2017 Share
CON35,31359.6%
LAB11,39519.2%
LIB6,19610.5%
MIN2,9745.0%
UKIP2,2273.8%
Green1,0991.9%
CON Majority23,91840.4%

See overview of other seats in South East.

Surrey East : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Surrey East constituency, the 'South East' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatSouth EastAll GB
Party WinnerCONCONCON
Economic Position9° Right4° Right
National Position7° Nat3° Nat1° Int
EU Leave %54%52%52%
British Identity26%29%29%
Good Health47%49%48%
UK Born95%88%88%
Good Education38%43%39%
Good Job52%56%51%
High SEC54%57%51%
Average Age52.849.248.5
ABC1 Class55%60%53%

Surrey East ranks #276 for "Leave", #123 for "Right" and #209 for "National" out of 600 new seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Surrey East: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Surrey East been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

List of old seats forming part of Surrey East

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Surrey East

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Surrey East, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Surrey EastTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Reigate and BansteadHorley Central6,483Surrey East2,5281,273220218249019204,680
Reigate and BansteadHorley East4,629Surrey East2,030651224139149014903,342
Reigate and BansteadHorley West6,114Surrey East2,4541,041329242144020504,415
TandridgeBletchingley and Nutfield4,370Surrey East2,0136122579254012703,155
TandridgeBurstow, Horne and Outwood4,617Surrey East2,17066517815513015303,334
TandridgeChaldon1,356Surrey East72995882470350978
TandridgeDormansland and Felcourt3,163Surrey East1,5212612573911808702,283
TandridgeFelbridge1,633Surrey East972133306803001,179
TandridgeGodstone4,664Surrey East2,05957333218848016803,368
TandridgeHarestone3,256Surrey East1,4604192896216010502,351
TandridgeLimpsfield2,795Surrey East1,418254226262007502,019
TandridgeLingfield and Crowhurst3,296Surrey East1,4444082999024011302,378
TandridgeOxted North and Tandridge4,534Surrey East2,0335414695836013803,275
TandridgeOxted South4,781Surrey East1,8739943527822013303,452
TandridgePortley3,657Surrey East1,553468397918012302,640
TandridgeQueens Park2,928Surrey East1,1274343606614011202,113
TandridgeTatsfield and Titsey1,443Surrey East453128542113037301,042
TandridgeValley3,279Surrey East1,1375314409846011502,367
TandridgeWarlingham East and Chelsham and Farleigh4,336Surrey East1,80851741720611017103,130
TandridgeWarlingham West2,626Surrey East1,23122520710421010801,896
TandridgeWestway3,327Surrey East1,13064835012721012802,404
TandridgeWhyteleafe3,032Surrey East1,1704533149650010602,189
TandridgeWoldingham1,683Surrey East1,000711071702801,214
 Total82,002 35,31311,3956,1962,2271,09902,974059,204

The full details of these calculations are given on the Surrey East seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Surrey East

The new seat of Surrey East is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Surrey East
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old Seat CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Reigate and BansteadHorley Central5,851Surrey East2,5281,273220218249019204,680
Reigate and BansteadHorley East5,145Surrey East2,030651224139149014903,342
Reigate and BansteadHorley West5,645Surrey East2,4541,041329242144020504,415
TandridgeBletchingley and Nutfield4,155Surrey East2,0136122579254012703,155
TandridgeBurstow, Horne and Outwood4,399Surrey East2,17066517815513015303,334
TandridgeChaldon1,379Surrey East72995882470350978
TandridgeDormansland and Felcourt2,894Surrey East1,5212612573911808702,283
TandridgeFelbridge1,671Surrey East972133306803001,179
TandridgeGodstone4,193Surrey East2,05957333218848016803,368
TandridgeHarestone2,978Surrey East1,4604192896216010502,351
TandridgeLimpsfield2,739Surrey East1,418254226262007502,019
TandridgeLingfield and Crowhurst3,124Surrey East1,4444082999024011302,378
TandridgeOxted North and Tandridge4,197Surrey East2,0335414695836013803,275
TandridgeOxted South4,351Surrey East1,8739943527822013303,452
TandridgePortley3,208Surrey East1,553468397918012302,640
TandridgeQueens Park2,793Surrey East1,1274343606614011202,113
TandridgeTatsfield and Titsey1,488Surrey East453128542113037301,042
TandridgeValley2,863Surrey East1,1375314409846011502,367
TandridgeWarlingham East and Chelsham and Farleigh4,147Surrey East1,80851741720611017103,130
TandridgeWarlingham West2,636Surrey East1,23122520710421010801,896
TandridgeWestway3,078Surrey East1,13064835012721012802,404
TandridgeWhyteleafe2,775Surrey East1,1704533149650010602,189
TandridgeWoldingham1,437Surrey East1,000711071702801,214
 Total77,146 35,31311,3956,1962,2271,09902,974059,204

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Surrey East.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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