Surrey Heath: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Surrey Heath: Overview

 Projection: CON seat 

Implied MP at 2017: Michael Gove  (CON)
County/Area: Surrey (South East)
Electorate: 74,329
Turnout: 74.6%

 Implied 2017 VotesImplied 2017 Share
CON Majority23,48042.4%

See overview of other seats in South East.

Surrey Heath : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Surrey Heath constituency, the 'South East' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatSouth EastAll GB
Economic Position9° Right4° Right
National Position4° Nat3° Nat1° Int
EU Leave %52%52%52%
British Identity22%29%29%
Good Health47%49%48%
UK Born84%88%88%
Good Education31%43%39%
Good Job47%56%51%
High SEC48%57%51%
Average Age48.449.248.5
ABC1 Class51%60%53%

Surrey Heath ranks #361 for "Leave", #116 for "Right" and #255 for "National" out of 600 new seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Surrey Heath: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015


This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Surrey Heath been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

List of old seats forming part of Surrey Heath

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Surrey Heath

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Surrey Heath, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Surrey HeathTransfer-adjusted Results
New SeatCON
GuildfordAsh South and Tongham5,867Surrey Heath2,5721,01447201540004,212
GuildfordAsh Vale4,288Surrey Heath1,86152558201100003,078
GuildfordAsh Wharf4,657Surrey Heath1,95159368801120003,344
Surrey HeathBagshot4,266Surrey Heath1,92942830604010003,064
Surrey HeathBisley3,031Surrey Heath1,4964701180920002,176
Surrey HeathChobham2,883Surrey Heath1,1776668501420002,070
Surrey HeathFrimley4,684Surrey Heath2,2678342060560003,363
Surrey HeathFrimley Green4,459Surrey Heath1,79271155801400003,201
Surrey HeathHeatherside4,620Surrey Heath2,30043147901060003,316
Surrey HeathLightwater5,176Surrey Heath2,57151141202220003,716
Surrey HeathMytchett and Deepcut5,306Surrey Heath2,25171370101450003,810
Surrey HeathOld Dean3,572Surrey Heath1,2781,1061430380002,565
Surrey HeathParkside4,712Surrey Heath2,46546333701180003,383
Surrey HeathSt Michaels3,995Surrey Heath1,6219781900790002,868
Surrey HeathSt Pauls4,354Surrey Heath2,5473531680590003,127
Surrey HeathTown3,840Surrey Heath1,78162924701000002,757
Surrey HeathWatchetts3,875Surrey Heath1,7738391340350002,781
Surrey HeathWest End3,620Surrey Heath1,67055826801030002,599
Surrey HeathWindlesham3,333Windsor1,8163541770470002,394
 Total80,538 37,11812,1766,27102,25900057,824

The full details of these calculations are given on the Surrey Heath seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Surrey Heath

The new seat of Surrey Heath is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Surrey Heath
Old Seat CON
GuildfordAsh South and Tongham5,958Surrey Heath2,5721,01447201540004,212
GuildfordAsh Vale4,276Surrey Heath1,86152558201100003,078
GuildfordAsh Wharf4,717Surrey Heath1,95159368801120003,344
Surrey HeathBagshot4,411Surrey Heath1,92942830604010003,064
Surrey HeathBisley2,610Surrey Heath1,4964701180920002,176
Surrey HeathChobham2,895Surrey Heath1,1776668501420002,070
Surrey HeathFrimley4,444Surrey Heath2,2678342060560003,363
Surrey HeathFrimley Green4,249Surrey Heath1,79271155801400003,201
Surrey HeathHeatherside4,479Surrey Heath2,30043147901060003,316
Surrey HeathLightwater5,260Surrey Heath2,57151141202220003,716
Surrey HeathMytchett and Deepcut4,929Surrey Heath2,25171370101450003,810
Surrey HeathOld Dean3,012Surrey Heath1,2781,1061430380002,565
Surrey HeathParkside4,791Surrey Heath2,46546333701180003,383
Surrey HeathSt Michaels3,508Surrey Heath1,6219781900790002,868
Surrey HeathSt Pauls4,452Surrey Heath2,5473531680590003,127
Surrey HeathTown3,378Surrey Heath1,78162924701000002,757
Surrey HeathWatchetts3,652Surrey Heath1,7738391340350002,781
Surrey HeathWest End3,308Surrey Heath1,67055826801030002,599
 Total74,329 35,30211,8226,09402,21200055,430

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Surrey Heath.

© 2018 Martin Baxter
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