Sussex Mid: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Sussex Mid: Overview

 Projection: CON seat 

Implied MP at 2017: Nicholas Soames  (CON)
County/Area: West Sussex (South East)
Electorate: 77,031
Turnout: 77.9%

 Implied 2017 VotesImplied 2017 Share
CON34,07156.8%
LAB15,09225.2%
LIB7,58712.7%
Green1,5552.6%
UKIP1,2152.0%
OTH4530.8%
CON Majority18,97931.6%

See overview of other seats in South East.

Sussex Mid : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Sussex Mid constituency, the 'South East' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatSouth EastAll GB
Party WinnerCONCONCON
Economic Position5° Right4° Right
National Position3° Nat1° Int
EU Leave %47%52%52%
British Identity24%29%29%
Good Health43%49%48%
UK Born97%88%88%
Good Education29%43%39%
Good Job44%56%51%
High SEC42%57%51%
Average Age49.649.248.5
ABC1 Class43%60%53%

Sussex Mid ranks #427 for "Leave", #196 for "Right" and #376 for "National" out of 600 new seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Sussex Mid: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Sussex Mid been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

List of old seats forming part of Sussex Mid

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Sussex Mid

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Sussex Mid, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Sussex MidTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Mid SussexAshurst Wood2,246Sussex Mid1,13333299245400111,653
Mid SussexBolney2,256Arundel and South Downs1,011318268341600121,659
Mid SussexBurgess Hill Dunstall4,145Sussex Mid1,755747418644500233,052
Mid SussexBurgess Hill Franklands3,902Sussex Mid1,683557485695800202,872
Mid SussexBurgess Hill Leylands3,832Sussex Mid1,477676530636400112,821
Mid SussexBurgess Hill Meeds3,714Sussex Mid1,182853554894000152,733
Mid SussexBurgess Hill St Andrews3,646Sussex Mid1,258756509806200182,683
Mid SussexBurgess Hill Victoria4,562Sussex Mid1,5621,047560857800253,357
Mid SussexCuckfield4,165Sussex Mid1,956639328911100233,066
Mid SussexEast Grinstead Ashplats4,457Sussex Mid2,0438081881377600293,281
Mid SussexEast Grinstead Baldwins4,195Sussex Mid1,9746362409611000303,086
Mid SussexEast Grinstead Herontye3,888Sussex Mid1,9595451655410600322,861
Mid SussexEast Grinstead Imberhorne3,469Sussex Mid1,825512117513400132,552
Mid SussexEast Grinstead Town4,101Sussex Mid1,6347753856912900273,019
Mid SussexHaywards Heath Ashenground4,398Sussex Mid1,4451,108527606600303,236
Mid SussexHaywards Heath Bentswood4,512Sussex Mid1,4081,3413571018600283,321
Mid SussexHaywards Heath Franklands3,797Sussex Mid1,641646412413600192,795
Mid SussexHaywards Heath Heath4,349Sussex Mid1,772853474335300153,200
Mid SussexHaywards Heath Lucastes4,414Sussex Mid1,886691597322700153,248
Mid SussexHigh Weald4,181Sussex Mid1,9377211735115600393,077
Mid SussexLindfield5,517Sussex Mid2,541849469716400304,060
 Total83,746 35,08215,4107,8551,2491,5710046561,632

The full details of these calculations are given on the Sussex Mid seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Sussex Mid

The new seat of Sussex Mid is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Sussex Mid
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old Seat CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Mid SussexAshurst Wood2,023Sussex Mid1,13333299245400111,653
Mid SussexBurgess Hill Dunstall3,812Sussex Mid1,755747418644500233,052
Mid SussexBurgess Hill Franklands3,903Sussex Mid1,683557485695800202,872
Mid SussexBurgess Hill Leylands3,650Sussex Mid1,477676530636400112,821
Mid SussexBurgess Hill Meeds3,560Sussex Mid1,182853554894000152,733
Mid SussexBurgess Hill St Andrews3,676Sussex Mid1,258756509806200182,683
Mid SussexBurgess Hill Victoria4,141Sussex Mid1,5621,047560857800253,357
Mid SussexCuckfield3,973Sussex Mid1,956639328911100233,066
Mid SussexEast Grinstead Ashplats4,164Sussex Mid2,0438081881377600293,281
Mid SussexEast Grinstead Baldwins3,766Sussex Mid1,9746362409611000303,086
Mid SussexEast Grinstead Herontye3,741Sussex Mid1,9595451655410600322,861
Mid SussexEast Grinstead Imberhorne3,538Sussex Mid1,825512117513400132,552
Mid SussexEast Grinstead Town3,514Sussex Mid1,6347753856912900273,019
Mid SussexHaywards Heath Ashenground3,894Sussex Mid1,4451,108527606600303,236
Mid SussexHaywards Heath Bentswood4,215Sussex Mid1,4081,3413571018600283,321
Mid SussexHaywards Heath Franklands3,739Sussex Mid1,641646412413600192,795
Mid SussexHaywards Heath Heath3,973Sussex Mid1,772853474335300153,200
Mid SussexHaywards Heath Lucastes4,280Sussex Mid1,886691597322700153,248
Mid SussexHigh Weald3,834Sussex Mid1,9377211735115600393,077
Mid SussexLindfield5,635Sussex Mid2,541849469716400304,060
 Total77,031 34,07115,0927,5871,2151,5550045359,973

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Sussex Mid.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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