Tiverton and Honiton: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Tiverton and Honiton: Overview

 Projection: CON seat 

Implied MP at 2017: Neil Parish  (CON)
County/Area: Devon (South West)
Electorate: 75,818
Turnout: 76.3%

 Implied 2017 VotesImplied 2017 Share
CON35,48061.3%
LAB15,67127.1%
LIB4,6398.0%
Green2,0343.5%
MIN140.0%
UKIP10.0%
CON Majority19,80934.2%

See overview of other seats in South West.

Tiverton and Honiton : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Tiverton and Honiton constituency, the 'South West' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatSouth WestAll GB
Party WinnerCONCONCON
Economic Position5° Right1° Right
National Position7° Nat1° Nat1° Int
EU Leave %58%53%52%
British Identity28%27%29%
Good Health47%47%48%
UK Born93%92%88%
Good Education41%40%39%
Good Job54%50%51%
High SEC57%52%51%
Average Age50.950.548.5
ABC1 Class58%54%53%

Tiverton and Honiton ranks #195 for "Leave", #215 for "Right" and #210 for "National" out of 600 new seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Tiverton and Honiton: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Tiverton and Honiton been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

List of old seats forming part of Tiverton and Honiton

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Devon East

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Devon East, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Devon EastTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
East DevonBroadclyst4,245Devon East1,6842616647001,041123,111
East DevonBudleigh5,243Devon East2,33116210446001,190103,843
East DevonClyst Valley2,007Devon East1,14878160023621,471
East DevonExmouth Brixington5,539Devon East2,26847666101001,137114,059
East DevonExmouth Halsdon5,910Devon East2,11261915680001,342224,331
East DevonExmouth Littleham6,311Devon East2,349408122336001,392184,625
East DevonExmouth Town6,097Devon East1,83299121845001,357244,467
East DevonExmouth Withycombe Raleigh6,357Devon East2,066741265119001,444244,659
East DevonFeniton and Buckerell34Tiverton and Honiton81010014024
East DevonNewton Poppleford and Harpford1,837Devon East646401700641101,345
East DevonOttery St Mary Rural3,568Devon East1,36840189001,167132,615
East DevonOttery St Mary Town4,317Devon East1,2323461117001,532273,165
East DevonRaleigh1,864Devon East607772200665121,365
East DevonSidmouth Rural1,916Devon East67955940064981,404
East DevonSidmouth Sidford5,589Devon East1,90313614453001,841204,097
East DevonSidmouth Town4,546Devon East1,557441172001,595183,333
East DevonWhimple2,062Devon East85817263100040361,512
East DevonWoodbury and Lympstone4,623Devon East1,1831381324002,010213,389
ExeterSt Loyes5,443Exeter1,7351,0974227800822153,989
ExeterTopsham4,872Devon East1,73697350170079063,572
 Total82,380 29,3026,8551,4681,2040021,26827960,376

The full details of these calculations are given on the Devon East seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Tiverton and Honiton

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Tiverton and Honiton, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Tiverton and HonitonTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
East DevonAxminster Rural2,142Tiverton and Honiton1,066358820280001,534
East DevonAxminster Town3,756Tiverton and Honiton1,4595855870590002,690
East DevonBeer and Branscombe1,508Tiverton and Honiton4484781140400001,080
East DevonColy Valley3,710Tiverton and Honiton1,7576112210680002,657
East DevonDunkeswell1,658Tiverton and Honiton821275630280001,187
East DevonFeniton and Buckerell1,868Tiverton and Honiton6515281160430001,338
East DevonHoniton St Michael's5,626Tiverton and Honiton2,4801,1503250740004,029
East DevonHoniton St Paul's3,857Tiverton and Honiton1,4921,0501670530002,762
East DevonNewbridges1,931Tiverton and Honiton8711453420250001,383
East DevonOtterhead1,860Tiverton and Honiton964274600350001,333
East DevonSeaton5,853Tiverton and Honiton2,4297909070670004,193
East DevonTale Vale2,062Tiverton and Honiton1,060329630250001,477
East DevonTrinity2,044Tiverton and Honiton1,246100660520001,464
East DevonYarty1,925Tiverton and Honiton89222813901190001,378
Mid DevonCanonsleigh2,678Tiverton and Honiton1,3132734702840001,917
Mid DevonCastle3,476Tiverton and Honiton1,3277813310500002,489
Mid DevonClare and Shuttern2,798Tiverton and Honiton1,452397970570002,003
Mid DevonCranmore4,164Tiverton and Honiton1,6771,1141340570002,982
Mid DevonCullompton North3,329Tiverton and Honiton1,5047331050420002,384
Mid DevonCullompton Outer1,712Tiverton and Honiton808333600240001,225
Mid DevonCullompton South3,016Tiverton and Honiton1,1338541390340002,160
Mid DevonHalberton1,654Tiverton and Honiton8241391002120001,185
Mid DevonLower Culm4,892Tiverton and Honiton2,828553680550003,504
Mid DevonLowman5,558Tiverton and Honiton2,2141,36613302670003,980
Mid DevonUpper Culm3,288Tiverton and Honiton1,4667261110520002,355
Mid DevonWestexe4,366Tiverton and Honiton1,2901,50015201840003,126
 Total80,731 35,47215,6704,63902,03400057,815

The full details of these calculations are given on the Tiverton and Honiton seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Tiverton and Honiton

The new seat of Tiverton and Honiton is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Tiverton and Honiton
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old Seat CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
East DevonAxminster Rural2,165Tiverton and Honiton1,066358820280001,534
East DevonAxminster Town3,595Tiverton and Honiton1,4595855870590002,690
East DevonBeer and Branscombe1,517Tiverton and Honiton4484781140400001,080
East DevonColy Valley3,774Tiverton and Honiton1,7576112210680002,657
East DevonDunkeswell1,675Tiverton and Honiton821275630280001,187
East DevonFeniton and Buckerell33Devon East12920100024
East DevonFeniton and Buckerell1,808Tiverton and Honiton64752011414201401,338
East DevonHoniton St Michael's5,232Tiverton and Honiton2,4801,1503250740004,029
East DevonHoniton St Paul's3,782Tiverton and Honiton1,4921,0501670530002,762
East DevonNewbridges2,007Tiverton and Honiton8711453420250001,383
East DevonOtterhead1,798Tiverton and Honiton964274600350001,333
East DevonSeaton5,920Tiverton and Honiton2,4297909070670004,193
East DevonTale Vale1,970Tiverton and Honiton1,060329630250001,477
East DevonTrinity2,066Tiverton and Honiton1,246100660520001,464
East DevonYarty1,982Tiverton and Honiton89222813901190001,378
Mid DevonCanonsleigh2,520Tiverton and Honiton1,3132734702840001,917
Mid DevonCastle2,924Tiverton and Honiton1,3277813310500002,489
Mid DevonClare and Shuttern2,720Tiverton and Honiton1,452397970570002,003
Mid DevonCranmore3,784Tiverton and Honiton1,6771,1141340570002,982
Mid DevonCullompton North2,924Tiverton and Honiton1,5047331050420002,384
Mid DevonCullompton Outer1,440Tiverton and Honiton808333600240001,225
Mid DevonCullompton South3,001Tiverton and Honiton1,1338541390340002,160
Mid DevonHalberton1,504Tiverton and Honiton8241391002120001,185
Mid DevonLower Culm4,354Tiverton and Honiton2,828553680550003,504
Mid DevonLowman4,380Tiverton and Honiton2,2141,36613302670003,980
Mid DevonUpper Culm3,194Tiverton and Honiton1,4667261110520002,355
Mid DevonWestexe3,749Tiverton and Honiton1,2901,50015201840003,126
 Total75,818 35,48015,6714,63912,034014057,839

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Tiverton and Honiton.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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