Tonbridge: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Tonbridge: Overview

 Projection: CON seat 

Implied MP at 2017: Tom Tugendhat  (CON)
County/Area: Kent (South East)
Electorate: 74,860
Turnout: 76.7%

 Implied 2017 VotesImplied 2017 Share
CON35,66562.1%
LAB13,76824.0%
LIB3,8706.7%
Green2,1823.8%
UKIP1,7723.1%
OTH1740.3%
CON Majority21,89738.1%

See overview of other seats in South East.

Tonbridge : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Tonbridge constituency, the 'South East' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatSouth EastAll GB
Party WinnerCONCONCON
Economic Position7° Right4° Right
National Position4° Nat3° Nat1° Int
EU Leave %52%52%52%
British Identity24%29%29%
Good Health41%49%48%
UK Born91%88%88%
Good Education31%43%39%
Good Job44%56%51%
High SEC43%57%51%
Average Age50.849.248.5
ABC1 Class44%60%53%

Tonbridge ranks #331 for "Leave", #162 for "Right" and #261 for "National" out of 600 new seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Tonbridge: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Tonbridge been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

List of old seats forming part of Tonbridge

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Tonbridge and Malling

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Tonbridge and Malling, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Tonbridge and MallingTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
SevenoaksCowden and Hever1,611Tonbridge8452303051310001,187
SevenoaksEdenbridge North and East3,600Tonbridge1,815519129531370002,653
SevenoaksEdenbridge South and West3,348Tonbridge1,519608761401240002,467
SevenoaksLeigh and Chiddingstone Causeway1,742Tonbridge1,0701302233300001,285
SevenoaksPenshurst, Fordcombe and Chiddingstone1,926Tonbridge8921892577740001,419
Tonbridge and MallingBorough Green and Long Mill5,386Tonbridge2,2701,3031421071460003,968
Tonbridge and MallingCage Green3,576Tonbridge1,747524164791210002,635
Tonbridge and MallingCastle3,882Tonbridge1,785456386162170002,860
Tonbridge and MallingDowns and Mereworth3,288Tonbridge1,82635637841190002,422
Tonbridge and MallingEast Malling3,964Chatham and The Mallings1,333760619140690002,921
Tonbridge and MallingHadlow and East Peckham5,640Tonbridge2,885760952211940004,155
Tonbridge and MallingHigham3,719Tonbridge1,859574131451320002,741
Tonbridge and MallingHildenborough3,847Tonbridge1,904453261841320002,834
Tonbridge and MallingJudd4,036Tonbridge1,4849142951371440002,974
Tonbridge and MallingKings Hill6,058Chatham and The Mallings3,37886465113430004,463
Tonbridge and MallingMedway4,243Tonbridge1,8509161041061490003,125
Tonbridge and MallingTrench3,758Tonbridge1,466879163188730002,769
Tonbridge and MallingVauxhall3,922Tonbridge1,524882304301510002,891
Tonbridge and MallingWateringbury1,631Tonbridge8732391325520001,202
Tonbridge and MallingWest Malling and Leybourne4,564Chatham and The Mallings1,965757439118840003,363
Tonbridge and MallingWrotham, Ightham and Stansted3,493Sevenoaks1,92839854791140002,573
 Total77,234 36,21812,7113,7861,8562,33600056,907

The full details of these calculations are given on the Tonbridge and Malling seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Tunbridge Wells

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Tunbridge Wells, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Tunbridge WellsTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Tunbridge WellsBrenchley and Horsmonden3,805Kent Mid and Ticehurst1,902592124692200382,747
Tunbridge WellsBroadwater3,182Tunbridge Wells and Crowborough1,310637184992900382,297
Tunbridge WellsCapel1,768Tonbridge728250250151700161,276
Tunbridge WellsCulverden5,942Tunbridge Wells and Crowborough2,3301,0454984531700514,286
Tunbridge WellsGoudhurst and Lamberhurst3,574Kent Mid and Ticehurst1,822492153522400352,578
Tunbridge WellsHawkhurst and Sandhurst4,603Kent Mid and Ticehurst2,1386982921143800403,320
Tunbridge WellsPaddock Wood East3,088Kent Mid and Ticehurst1,3705261711221000292,228
Tunbridge WellsPaddock Wood West2,823Kent Mid and Ticehurst1,1965521421031900252,037
Tunbridge WellsPantiles and St Mark's5,049Tunbridge Wells and Crowborough2,3367143053921100383,643
Tunbridge WellsPark5,281Tunbridge Wells and Crowborough2,232986407578300463,811
Tunbridge WellsPembury4,403Tonbridge1,8858312631004800503,177
Tunbridge WellsRusthall3,631Tunbridge Wells and Crowborough1,1749162698913900342,621
Tunbridge WellsSherwood5,007Tunbridge Wells and Crowborough1,8041,2832671763300493,612
Tunbridge WellsSouthborough and High Brooms5,496Tonbridge1,7951,5683411694700463,966
Tunbridge WellsSouthborough North3,165Tonbridge1,430577193313100222,284
Tunbridge WellsSpeldhurst and Bidborough4,353Tonbridge2,213610214511300403,141
Tunbridge WellsSt James'4,536Tunbridge Wells and Crowborough1,2841,068744576200583,273
Tunbridge WellsSt John's5,431Tunbridge Wells and Crowborough1,9051,0485407729900493,918
 Total75,137 30,85414,3935,3571,4651,4420070454,215

The full details of these calculations are given on the Tunbridge Wells seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Tonbridge

The new seat of Tonbridge is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Tonbridge
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old Seat CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
SevenoaksCowden and Hever1,561Tonbridge and Malling8452303051310001,187
SevenoaksEdenbridge North and East3,616Tonbridge and Malling1,815519129531370002,653
SevenoaksEdenbridge South and West3,015Tonbridge and Malling1,519608761401240002,467
SevenoaksLeigh and Chiddingstone Causeway1,690Tonbridge and Malling1,0701302233300001,285
SevenoaksPenshurst, Fordcombe and Chiddingstone1,966Tonbridge and Malling8921892577740001,419
Tonbridge and MallingBorough Green and Long Mill5,258Tonbridge and Malling2,2701,3031421071460003,968
Tonbridge and MallingCage Green3,502Tonbridge and Malling1,747524164791210002,635
Tonbridge and MallingCastle3,287Tonbridge and Malling1,785456386162170002,860
Tonbridge and MallingDowns and Mereworth3,305Tonbridge and Malling1,82635637841190002,422
Tonbridge and MallingHadlow and East Peckham5,371Tonbridge and Malling2,885760952211940004,155
Tonbridge and MallingHigham3,611Tonbridge and Malling1,859574131451320002,741
Tonbridge and MallingHildenborough3,686Tonbridge and Malling1,904453261841320002,834
Tonbridge and MallingJudd3,594Tonbridge and Malling1,4849142951371440002,974
Tonbridge and MallingMedway4,167Tonbridge and Malling1,8509161041061490003,125
Tonbridge and MallingTrench3,516Tonbridge and Malling1,466879163188730002,769
Tonbridge and MallingVauxhall3,693Tonbridge and Malling1,524882304301510002,891
Tonbridge and MallingWateringbury1,540Tonbridge and Malling8732391325520001,202
Tunbridge WellsCapel1,719Tunbridge Wells728250250151700161,276
Tunbridge WellsPembury4,268Tunbridge Wells1,8858312631004800503,177
Tunbridge WellsSouthborough and High Brooms4,981Tunbridge Wells1,7951,5683411694700463,966
Tunbridge WellsSouthborough North3,051Tunbridge Wells1,430577193313100222,284
Tunbridge WellsSpeldhurst and Bidborough4,463Tunbridge Wells2,213610214511300403,141
 Total74,860 35,66513,7683,8701,7722,1820017457,431

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Tonbridge.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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