Upper Bann and Blackwater: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Upper Bann and Blackwater: Overview

 Projection: NAT seat 

Implied MP at 2015: Unknown (changed seat)  (NAT)
County/Area: Armagh (Northern Ireland)
Electorate: 73,405
Turnout: 66.3%

 Implied 2015 VotesImplied 2015 Share
NAT17,38335.7%
CON14,58830.0%
LIB9,23119.0%
LAB4,94410.2%
MIN1,2262.5%
OTH1,0472.1%
Green2040.4%
UKIP810.2%
NAT Majority2,7955.7%

See overview of other seats in Northern Ireland.

Upper Bann and Blackwater: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2015 had the new boundaries for Upper Bann and Blackwater been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2015. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

List of old seats forming part of Upper Bann and Blackwater

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Fermanagh and South Tyrone

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Fermanagh and South Tyrone, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Fermanagh and South TyroneTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2015
New SeatUUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonLoughgall509Upper Bann and Blackwater1961400814705370
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonThe Birches374Upper Bann and Blackwater1451100610804274
Fermanagh and OmaghBallinamallard2,129Fermanagh and South Tyrone84811300165570101,544
Fermanagh and OmaghBelcoo and Garrison1,693Fermanagh and South Tyrone4967500136250191,228
Fermanagh and OmaghBelleek and Boa1,883Fermanagh and South Tyrone7501000014493091,366
Fermanagh and OmaghBoho, Cleenish and Letterbreen2,045Fermanagh and South Tyrone5999100157560231,484
Fermanagh and OmaghBrookeborough1,466Fermanagh and South Tyrone337600010657001,064
Fermanagh and OmaghCastlecoole2,323Fermanagh and South Tyrone8587100466730371,685
Fermanagh and OmaghDerrygonnelly1,897Fermanagh and South Tyrone5558400147000221,375
Fermanagh and OmaghDerrylin1,732Fermanagh and South Tyrone5077700136400201,257
Fermanagh and OmaghDonagh1,448Fermanagh and South Tyrone332600010649001,051
Fermanagh and OmaghEderney and Kesh1,826Fermanagh and South Tyrone728970014478091,326
Fermanagh and OmaghErne2,175Fermanagh and South Tyrone8046600426300351,577
Fermanagh and OmaghFlorence Court and Kinawley1,672Fermanagh and South Tyrone4897500136180191,214
Fermanagh and OmaghIrvinestown2,285Fermanagh and South Tyrone91112100175980111,658
Fermanagh and OmaghLisbellaw2,135Fermanagh and South Tyrone7896500416180341,547
Fermanagh and OmaghLisnarrick2,162Fermanagh and South Tyrone7996600426280351,570
Fermanagh and OmaghLisnaskea1,927Fermanagh and South Tyrone442800013864001,399
Fermanagh and OmaghMaguiresbridge2,048Fermanagh and South Tyrone470850014917001,486
Fermanagh and OmaghNewtownbutler1,591Fermanagh and South Tyrone365660011712001,154
Fermanagh and OmaghPortora2,176Fermanagh and South Tyrone8046600426310351,578
Fermanagh and OmaghRosslea1,349Fermanagh and South Tyrone3095600960400978
Fermanagh and OmaghRossorry1,693Fermanagh and South Tyrone6265200324900271,227
Fermanagh and OmaghTempo1,734Fermanagh and South Tyrone691920013453081,257
Mid UlsterAugher and Clogher2,224Fermanagh and South Tyrone737960020760001,613
Mid UlsterAughnacloy2,351Fermanagh and South Tyrone7791010022804001,706
Mid UlsterBallygawley1,951Fermanagh and South Tyrone647840018667001,416
Mid UlsterBallysaggart3,106Upper Bann and Blackwater1,1399100429230602,255
Mid UlsterCaledon2,417Upper Bann and Blackwater8011040022826001,753
Mid UlsterCastlecaulfield1,595Fermanagh and South Tyrone529690015545001,158
Mid UlsterFivemiletown2,121Fermanagh and South Tyrone703920019725001,539
Mid UlsterKillyman1,872Upper Bann and Blackwater6855500255550361,356
Mid UlsterKillymeal2,617Upper Bann and Blackwater9607700357760511,899
Mid UlsterMoy2,504Upper Bann and Blackwater9187300347440491,818
Mid UlsterMoygashel2,412Upper Bann and Blackwater8847100327170471,751
Mid UlsterMullaghmore2,662Tyrone North9767800367910521,933
 Total70,104 23,6082,7340078823,079065750,866

The full details of these calculations are given on the Fermanagh and South Tyrone seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Newry and Armagh

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Newry and Armagh, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Newry and ArmaghTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2015
New SeatUUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonBlackwatertown3,596Upper Bann and Blackwater6676360001,004052,312
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonCathedral3,476Newry and Armagh644615000970052,234
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonDemesne3,502Newry and Armagh649619000977052,250
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonHamiltonsbawn3,095Newry and Armagh1,3122700003360691,987
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonKeady3,473Newry and Armagh643614000969052,231
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonLoughbrickland534Down South220560006206344
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonLoughgall2,927Upper Bann and Blackwater1,1012220005050531,881
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonMahon90Newry and Armagh347000160259
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonMarkethill3,376Newry and Armagh1,4322950003670762,170
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonNavan3,139Newry and Armagh582555000876052,018
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonRichhill3,421Newry and Armagh1,4513000003710772,199
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonSeagahan3,395Newry and Armagh1,4392980003690762,182
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonTandragee3,502Newry and Armagh1,4863060003800792,251
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonThe Mall3,421Newry and Armagh633604000955052,197
Newry, Mourne and DownAbbey2,601Newry and Armagh3465500006890861,671
Newry, Mourne and DownBallybot3,530Newry and Armagh47174600093501172,269
Newry, Mourne and DownBessbrook3,258Newry and Armagh2864910001,317002,094
Newry, Mourne and DownCamlough2,568Newry and Armagh2253870001,038001,650
Newry, Mourne and DownCrossmaglen2,497Newry and Armagh2183760001,009001,603
Newry, Mourne and DownDamolly2,600Newry and Armagh3475500006880861,671
Newry, Mourne and DownDrumalane3,295Newry and Armagh43969600087301092,117
Newry, Mourne and DownFathom2,799Newry and Armagh3735910007410931,798
Newry, Mourne and DownForkhill2,534Newry and Armagh2223820001,023001,627
Newry, Mourne and DownMayobridge295Down South32830006904188
Newry, Mourne and DownMullaghbane2,754Newry and Armagh2424150001,113001,770
Newry, Mourne and DownNewtownhamilton2,553Newry and Armagh2243850001,031001,640
Newry, Mourne and DownSt Patrick's2,673Newry and Armagh3565650007080881,717
Newry, Mourne and DownWhitecross2,720Newry and Armagh2394100001,099001,748
 Total77,624 16,31312,02400020,49001,05149,878

The full details of these calculations are given on the Newry and Armagh seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Ulster Mid

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Ulster Mid, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Ulster MidTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2015
New SeatUUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Mid UlsterArdboe2,484Tyrone North20122813824079466491,500
Mid UlsterBallygawley402Fermanagh and South Tyrone612861508800243
Mid UlsterBallymaguigan2,661Glenshane272183263250863001,606
Mid UlsterBellaghy2,419Glenshane247166240220784001,459
Mid UlsterCastlecaulfield687Fermanagh and South Tyrone104471058015100415
Mid UlsterCastledawson2,442Glenshane250167241220792001,472
Mid UlsterCoagh2,195Tyrone North31213414746058160441,324
Mid UlsterCoalisland North2,391Upper Bann and Blackwater19322013223076364471,442
Mid UlsterCoalisland South2,764Upper Bann and Blackwater22425415327088274541,668
Mid UlsterCookstown East2,117Tyrone North30212814244056058431,277
Mid UlsterCookstown South2,420Tyrone North34514616252064067491,461
Mid UlsterCookstown West2,407Tyrone North34314616152063666491,453
Mid UlsterCoolshinny2,348Glenshane1601843123204771451071,417
Mid UlsterDonaghmore2,483Tyrone North20122813824079466491,500
Mid UlsterDraperstown2,012Glenshane206138200190652001,215
Mid UlsterGlebe2,519Glenshane1711983343405121561151,520
Mid UlsterKillyman409Upper Bann and Blackwater50194550594029247
Mid UlsterKillymeal228Upper Bann and Blackwater28112630332216139
Mid UlsterLissan2,418Glenshane1641903213304911501101,459
Mid UlsterLoughry1,932Tyrone North27611813041051153391,168
Mid UlsterLower Glenshane1,955Glenshane1021479416074743311,180
Mid UlsterMaghera2,519Glenshane13219012220096255401,521
Mid UlsterOaklands2,078Tyrone North29512613944054957421,252
Mid UlsterPomeroy2,567Tyrone North36615517255067870521,548
Mid UlsterStewartstown2,097Tyrone North17019311620066956411,265
Mid UlsterSwatragh2,279Glenshane11917111018087050371,375
Mid UlsterTamlaght O'Crilly2,407Glenshane12618111519092052391,452
Mid UlsterThe Loup2,488Glenshane1691963303405061541131,502
Mid UlsterTobermore2,403Glenshane246165238220779001,450
Mid UlsterTown Parks East2,463Glenshane1671933273305011521121,485
Mid UlsterValley2,424Glenshane12618311620092653391,463
Mid UlsterWashing Bay2,411Upper Bann and Blackwater19522213323076964471,453
 Total67,829 6,3235,0555,463865019,9391,8931,39340,931

The full details of these calculations are given on the Ulster Mid seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Upper Bann

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Upper Bann, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Upper BannTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2015
New SeatUUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonAghagallon3,284Upper Bann and Blackwater42628738500824951,936
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonBallybay3,064Upper Bann and Blackwater4108781700338100571,809
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonBanbridge East2,169Down West5481033940017240231,280
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonBanbridge North2,881Down West7281365240022953301,700
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonBanbridge South3,161Down West7991505740025058331,864
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonBanbridge West3,699Down West9361756720029368392,183
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonBleary3,050Down West43215162200431103591,798
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonBrownlow4,251Upper Bann and Blackwater60321186800600144822,508
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonCorcrain3,543Upper Bann and Blackwater47410194400389116662,090
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonCraigavon Centre3,705Upper Bann and Blackwater52518375600524126712,185
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonDerrytrasna3,174Upper Bann and Blackwater45015764900448108611,873
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonDonaghcloney2,955Down West581378360076136771,743
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonGilford3,246Down West8211535900025760341,915
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonKernan3,228Upper Bann and Blackwater45916065800456109621,904
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonKillycomain3,012Upper Bann and Blackwater403868030033199561,778
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonKnocknashane2,832Upper Bann and Blackwater36824833200711841,671
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonLough Road3,329Upper Bann and Blackwater43129139000837951,963
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonLoughbrickland1,739Down South440833170013732181,027
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonMagheralin2,948Down West38225834500741851,739
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonMahon3,146Newry and Armagh4208983900346103581,855
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonMourneview3,370Upper Bann and Blackwater43729539500846951,987
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonParklake3,553Upper Bann and Blackwater46131141600894952,096
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonShankill4,066Upper Bann and Blackwater528356476001,0221162,399
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonThe Birches3,201Upper Bann and Blackwater4279185300352105591,887
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonWaringstown3,447Down West677429750089159902,032
 Total80,053 13,1664,24115,4300011,5931,7821,01047,222

The full details of these calculations are given on the Upper Bann seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Upper Bann and Blackwater

The new seat of Upper Bann and Blackwater is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Upper Bann and Blackwater
DistrictWardElectorate
2015
Old Seat UUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonAghagallon3,401Upper Bann42628738500824951,936
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonBallybay3,002Upper Bann4108781700338100571,809
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonBlackwatertown3,802Newry and Armagh6676360001,004052,312
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonBrownlow3,674Upper Bann60321186800600144822,508
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonCorcrain2,940Upper Bann47410194400389116662,090
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonCraigavon Centre3,342Upper Bann52518375600524126712,185
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonDerrytrasna3,360Upper Bann45015764900448108611,873
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonKernan3,250Upper Bann45916065800456109621,904
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonKillycomain2,767Upper Bann403868030033199561,778
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonKnocknashane2,966Upper Bann36824833200711841,671
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonLough Road3,321Upper Bann43129139000837951,963
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonLoughgall3,112Newry and Armagh1,1042010075550491,916
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonLoughgall543Fermanagh and South Tyrone193350019709335
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonMourneview3,249Upper Bann43729539500846951,987
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonParklake3,387Upper Bann46131141600894952,096
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonShankill3,752Upper Bann528356476001,0221162,399
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonThe Birches3,345Upper Bann512917640541294561,934
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonThe Birches390Fermanagh and South Tyrone6011890148117227
Mid UlsterBallysaggart1,941Fermanagh and South Tyrone1,1399100429230602,255
Mid UlsterCaledon2,459Fermanagh and South Tyrone8011040022826001,753
Mid UlsterCoalisland North2,366Ulster Mid19322013223076364471,442
Mid UlsterCoalisland South2,458Ulster Mid22425415327088274541,668
Mid UlsterKillyman384Ulster Mid13113814110712286
Mid UlsterKillyman1,764Fermanagh and South Tyrone604613742150433531,317
Mid UlsterKillymeal1,882Fermanagh and South Tyrone909812433274520621,876
Mid UlsterKillymeal163Ulster Mid7972036425162
Mid UlsterMoy2,118Fermanagh and South Tyrone9187300347440491,818
Mid UlsterMoygashel1,868Fermanagh and South Tyrone8847100327170471,751
Mid UlsterWashing Bay2,399Ulster Mid19522213323076964471,453
 Total73,405 14,5884,9449,2318120417,3831,2261,04748,704

And these are the implied results for 2015 for the new seat of Upper Bann and Blackwater.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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