Upper Bann and Blackwater: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Upper Bann and Blackwater: Overview

 Projection: NAT seat 

Implied MP at 2017: Unknown (changed seat)  (NAT)
County/Area: Armagh (Northern Ireland)
Electorate: 73,405
Turnout: 71.8%

 Implied 2017 VotesImplied 2017 Share
NAT20,58039.1%
LIB15,20128.8%
CON10,29219.5%
LAB4,7138.9%
MIN1,8123.4%
Green950.2%
NAT Majority5,37910.2%

See overview of other seats in Northern Ireland.

Upper Bann and Blackwater: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Upper Bann and Blackwater been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

List of old seats forming part of Upper Bann and Blackwater

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Fermanagh and South Tyrone

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Fermanagh and South Tyrone, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Fermanagh and South TyroneTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatUUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonLoughgall513Upper Bann and Blackwater2001400416470389
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonThe Birches377Upper Bann and Blackwater1471000312150286
Fermanagh and OmaghBallinamallard2,144Fermanagh and South Tyrone8861070086101401,625
Fermanagh and OmaghBelcoo and Garrison1,705Fermanagh and South Tyrone513710066762601,292
Fermanagh and OmaghBelleek and Boa1,896Fermanagh and South Tyrone783950075411201,438
Fermanagh and OmaghBoho, Cleenish and Letterbreen2,059Fermanagh and South Tyrone620860078173101,561
Fermanagh and OmaghBrookeborough1,476Fermanagh and South Tyrone34957005707001,118
Fermanagh and OmaghCastlecoole2,339Fermanagh and South Tyrone8806700327435001,772
Fermanagh and OmaghDerrygonnelly1,910Fermanagh and South Tyrone575800077572901,448
Fermanagh and OmaghDerrylin1,744Fermanagh and South Tyrone524730066912701,321
Fermanagh and OmaghDonagh1,458Fermanagh and South Tyrone34557005699001,106
Fermanagh and OmaghEderney and Kesh1,839Fermanagh and South Tyrone759920065241201,393
Fermanagh and OmaghErne2,190Fermanagh and South Tyrone8256300296964701,660
Fermanagh and OmaghFlorence Court and Kinawley1,684Fermanagh and South Tyrone506700066682601,276
Fermanagh and OmaghIrvinestown2,301Fermanagh and South Tyrone9491150086561501,743
Fermanagh and OmaghLisbellaw2,150Fermanagh and South Tyrone8096200296834701,630
Fermanagh and OmaghLisnarrick2,177Fermanagh and South Tyrone8196200296934701,650
Fermanagh and OmaghLisnaskea1,941Fermanagh and South Tyrone45975006929001,469
Fermanagh and OmaghMaguiresbridge2,063Fermanagh and South Tyrone48880007987001,562
Fermanagh and OmaghNewtownbutler1,602Fermanagh and South Tyrone38062005767001,214
Fermanagh and OmaghPortora2,191Fermanagh and South Tyrone8256300296964701,660
Fermanagh and OmaghRosslea1,359Fermanagh and South Tyrone32253004650001,029
Fermanagh and OmaghRossorry1,705Fermanagh and South Tyrone6424900225413701,291
Fermanagh and OmaghTempo1,746Fermanagh and South Tyrone722870064971101,323
Mid UlsterAugher and Clogher2,240Fermanagh and South Tyrone765910010831001,697
Mid UlsterAughnacloy2,368Fermanagh and South Tyrone809960010878001,793
Mid UlsterBallygawley1,965Fermanagh and South Tyrone67180008729001,488
Mid UlsterBallysaggart3,128Upper Bann and Blackwater1,1618600191,0218102,368
Mid UlsterCaledon2,434Upper Bann and Blackwater832990010903001,844
Mid UlsterCastlecaulfield1,606Fermanagh and South Tyrone54865007595001,215
Mid UlsterFivemiletown2,136Fermanagh and South Tyrone72987009792001,617
Mid UlsterKillyman1,885Upper Bann and Blackwater7005200126164901,429
Mid UlsterKillymeal2,636Upper Bann and Blackwater9807300168606901,998
Mid UlsterMoy2,522Upper Bann and Blackwater9366900168246501,910
Mid UlsterMoygashel2,429Upper Bann and Blackwater9026700157946301,841
Mid UlsterMullaghmore2,681Tyrone North9957400168767002,031
 Total70,599 24,3552,5890042425,232887053,487

The full details of these calculations are given on the Fermanagh and South Tyrone seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Newry and Armagh

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Newry and Armagh, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Newry and ArmaghTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatUUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonBlackwatertown3,626Upper Bann and Blackwater218489539001,229602,481
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonCathedral3,505Newry and Armagh211473522001,188602,400
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonDemesne3,531Newry and Armagh212476526001,198602,418
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonHamiltonsbawn3,121Newry and Armagh372180953005498302,137
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonKeady3,502Newry and Armagh210473521001,187602,397
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonLoughbrickland538Down South6939159009570369
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonLoughgall2,951Upper Bann and Blackwater1781301,043006066302,020
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonMahon91Newry and Armagh543200182061
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonMarkethill3,404Newry and Armagh4071961,040005989002,331
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonNavan3,165Newry and Armagh190427471001,073602,167
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonRichhill3,449Newry and Armagh4121991,053006069202,362
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonSeagahan3,423Newry and Armagh4091971,044006019102,342
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonTandragee3,531Newry and Armagh4212031,078006209402,416
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonThe Mall3,449Newry and Armagh207465514001,169602,361
Newry, Mourne and DownAbbey2,623Newry and Armagh354173380090210301,795
Newry, Mourne and DownBallybot3,559Newry and Armagh48567458001,22414002,437
Newry, Mourne and DownBessbrook3,285Newry and Armagh113385237001,513002,248
Newry, Mourne and DownCamlough2,589Newry and Armagh89303187001,192001,771
Newry, Mourne and DownCrossmaglen2,518Newry and Armagh87295182001,160001,724
Newry, Mourne and DownDamolly2,622Newry and Armagh364173380090110301,795
Newry, Mourne and DownDrumalane3,322Newry and Armagh44529428001,14213002,273
Newry, Mourne and DownFathom2,822Newry and Armagh384493640097111101,933
Newry, Mourne and DownForkhill2,555Newry and Armagh88300184001,176001,748
Newry, Mourne and DownMayobridge297Down South96534009140203
Newry, Mourne and DownMullaghbane2,777Newry and Armagh96325200001,279001,900
Newry, Mourne and DownNewtownhamilton2,574Newry and Armagh89302186001,185001,762
Newry, Mourne and DownSt Patrick's2,695Newry and Armagh364293470092610601,844
Newry, Mourne and DownWhitecross2,742Newry and Armagh95322198001,263001,878
 Total78,266 4,4249,05613,1760025,6621,255053,573

The full details of these calculations are given on the Newry and Armagh seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Ulster Mid

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Ulster Mid, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Ulster MidTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatUUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Mid UlsterArdboe2,508Tyrone North96206372009993801,711
Mid UlsterBallygawley406Fermanagh and South Tyrone29251090011300276
Mid UlsterBallymaguigan2,687Glenshane130166490001,046001,832
Mid UlsterBellaghy2,442Glenshane11815044700951001,666
Mid UlsterCastlecaulfield694Fermanagh and South Tyrone50431860019400473
Mid UlsterCastledawson2,466Glenshane11915245100960001,682
Mid UlsterCoagh2,216Tyrone North149120415007913501,510
Mid UlsterCoalisland North2,414Upper Bann and Blackwater92199357009613701,646
Mid UlsterCoalisland South2,791Upper Bann and Blackwater107229414001,1104301,903
Mid UlsterCookstown East2,137Tyrone North144116400007633301,456
Mid UlsterCookstown South2,443Tyrone North165132458008723801,665
Mid UlsterCookstown West2,430Tyrone North164132456008673801,657
Mid UlsterCoolshinny2,371Glenshane76166638006538401,617
Mid UlsterDonaghmore2,507Tyrone North96206370009983801,708
Mid UlsterDraperstown2,031Glenshane9812537100791001,385
Mid UlsterGlebe2,543Glenshane81179684007009001,734
Mid UlsterKillyman413Upper Bann and Blackwater241711700100230281
Mid UlsterKillymeal230Upper Bann and Blackwater139660056130157
Mid UlsterLissan2,441Glenshane78172657006728701,666
Mid UlsterLoughry1,951Tyrone North132106365006963101,330
Mid UlsterLower Glenshane1,974Glenshane49132236009042501,346
Mid UlsterMaghera2,543Glenshane63172304001,1653201,736
Mid UlsterOaklands2,098Tyrone North141114394007493301,431
Mid UlsterPomeroy2,592Tyrone North175140486009244101,766
Mid UlsterStewartstown2,117Tyrone North81174314008423301,444
Mid UlsterSwatragh2,301Glenshane57155275001,0542901,570
Mid UlsterTamlaght O'Crilly2,430Glenshane60164290001,1133001,657
Mid UlsterThe Loup2,512Glenshane81176675006928901,713
Mid UlsterTobermore2,426Glenshane11714944400944001,654
Mid UlsterTown Parks East2,487Glenshane80175668006858801,696
Mid UlsterValley2,447Glenshane60165292001,1203001,667
Mid UlsterWashing Bay2,434Upper Bann and Blackwater93200360009683701,658
 Total68,482 3,0184,56612,5610025,4531,095046,693

The full details of these calculations are given on the Ulster Mid seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Upper Bann

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Upper Bann, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Upper BannTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatUUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonAghagallon3,289Upper Bann and Blackwater246298592009551202,103
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonBallybay3,068Upper Bann and Blackwater231901,0780043213001,961
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonBanbridge East2,172Down West346106639002455201,388
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonBanbridge North2,885Down West459141849003266901,844
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonBanbridge South3,166Down West504155931003577602,023
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonBanbridge West3,704Down West5901821,090004188902,369
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonBleary3,054Down West2571568750053113401,953
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonBrownlow4,257Upper Bann and Blackwater3582181,2190073918702,721
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonCorcrain3,548Upper Bann and Blackwater2671051,2460049915102,268
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonCraigavon Centre3,710Upper Bann and Blackwater3121901,0620064416402,372
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonDerrytrasna3,179Upper Bann and Blackwater2671639100055214002,032
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonDonaghcloney2,959Down West361381,1610015517801,893
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonGilford3,251Down West518159957003677802,079
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonKernan3,233Upper Bann and Blackwater2721659250056114202,065
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonKillycomain3,016Upper Bann and Blackwater227891,0600042412801,928
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonKnocknashane2,836Upper Bann and Blackwater212257510008231001,812
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonLough Road3,334Upper Bann and Blackwater250303600009691202,134
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonLoughbrickland1,741Down South27785512001964201,112
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonMagheralin2,952Down West221268530008581101,888
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonMahon3,151Newry and Armagh237931,1070044413402,015
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonMourneview3,375Upper Bann and Blackwater253306607009801202,158
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonParklake3,558Upper Bann and Blackwater267323639001,0341302,276
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonShankill4,072Upper Bann and Blackwater306369731001,1831402,603
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonThe Birches3,206Upper Bann and Blackwater241941,1260045213602,049
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonWaringstown3,452Down West420441,3540018120702,206
 Total80,168 7,8994,39722,3100014,3252,321051,252

The full details of these calculations are given on the Upper Bann seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Upper Bann and Blackwater

The new seat of Upper Bann and Blackwater is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Upper Bann and Blackwater
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old Seat UUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonAghagallon3,401Upper Bann246298592009551202,103
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonBallybay3,002Upper Bann231901,0780043213001,961
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonBlackwatertown3,802Newry and Armagh218489539001,229602,481
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonBrownlow3,674Upper Bann3582181,2190073918702,721
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonCorcrain2,940Upper Bann2671051,2460049915102,268
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonCraigavon Centre3,342Upper Bann3121901,0620064416402,372
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonDerrytrasna3,360Upper Bann2671639100055214002,032
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonKernan3,250Upper Bann2721659250056114202,065
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonKillycomain2,767Upper Bann227891,0600042412801,928
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonKnocknashane2,966Upper Bann212257510008231001,812
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonLough Road3,321Upper Bann250303600009691202,134
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonLoughgall3,112Newry and Armagh322123888036566002,052
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonLoughgall543Fermanagh and South Tyrone562115501114100357
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonMourneview3,249Upper Bann253306607009801202,158
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonParklake3,387Upper Bann267323639001,0341302,276
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonShankill3,752Upper Bann306369731001,1831402,603
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonThe Birches3,345Upper Bann347931,0080351312602,090
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonThe Birches390Fermanagh and South Tyrone41111180060150245
Mid UlsterBallysaggart1,941Fermanagh and South Tyrone1,1618600191,0218102,368
Mid UlsterCaledon2,459Fermanagh and South Tyrone832990010903001,844
Mid UlsterCoalisland North2,366Ulster Mid92199357009613701,646
Mid UlsterCoalisland South2,458Ulster Mid107229414001,1104301,903
Mid UlsterKillyman384Ulster Mid129122102128130305
Mid UlsterKillyman1,764Fermanagh and South Tyrone59557960105885901,405
Mid UlsterKillymeal1,882Fermanagh and South Tyrone91475610158437501,983
Mid UlsterKillymeal163Ulster Mid7975017370172
Mid UlsterMoy2,118Fermanagh and South Tyrone9366900168246501,910
Mid UlsterMoygashel1,868Fermanagh and South Tyrone9026700157946301,841
Mid UlsterWashing Bay2,399Ulster Mid93200360009683701,658
 Total73,405 10,2924,71315,20109520,5801,812052,693

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Upper Bann and Blackwater.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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