Welwyn Hatfield: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Welwyn Hatfield: Overview

 Projection: CON seat 

Implied MP at 2017: Grant Shapps  (CON)
County/Area: Hertfordshire (Anglia)
Electorate: 72,763
Turnout: 74.8%

 Implied 2017 VotesImplied 2017 Share
CON28,39952.1%
LAB19,53035.9%
LIB3,9837.3%
UKIP1,4392.6%
Green9281.7%
OTH1780.3%
CON Majority8,86916.3%

See overview of other seats in Anglia.

Welwyn Hatfield : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Welwyn Hatfield constituency, the 'Anglia' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatAngliaAll GB
Party WinnerCONCONCON
Economic Position10° Right8° Right
National Position7° Nat10° Nat1° Int
EU Leave %53%57%52%
British Identity28%27%29%
Good Health51%47%48%
UK Born83%89%88%
Good Education46%37%39%
Good Job55%53%51%
High SEC55%53%51%
Average Age46.149.448.5
ABC1 Class61%55%53%

Welwyn Hatfield ranks #309 for "Leave", #92 for "Right" and #200 for "National" out of 600 new seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Welwyn Hatfield: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Welwyn Hatfield been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

List of old seats forming part of Welwyn Hatfield

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Hertfordshire North East

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Hertfordshire North East, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Hertfordshire North EastTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
East HertfordshireBraughing2,032Hertfordshire North East1,0432727101010001,487
East HertfordshireBuntingford4,291Hertfordshire North East2,11774512101560003,139
East HertfordshireHertford Rural North1,826Welwyn Hatfield1,009215440680001,336
East HertfordshireHertford Rural South2,024Welwyn Hatfield1,0323181070250001,482
East HertfordshireLittle Hadham1,973Hertfordshire North East1,0761933701380001,444
East HertfordshireMundens and Cottered1,983Hertfordshire North East1,148246280290001,451
East HertfordshirePuckeridge2,110Hertfordshire North East1,072308720910001,543
East HertfordshireThundridge and Standon2,457Hertfordshire North East1,343355680320001,798
East HertfordshireWalkern2,204Stevenage1,168374260450001,613
East HertfordshireWatton-at-Stone1,857Stevenage912308580800001,358
North HertfordshireArbury2,172Hertfordshire North East1,07122815901310001,589
North HertfordshireBaldock East2,300Hertfordshire North East8543184420690001,683
North HertfordshireBaldock Town5,870Hertfordshire North East2,4601,33224602570004,295
North HertfordshireErmine2,076Hertfordshire North East1,0782216001610001,520
North HertfordshireLetchworth East4,402Hertfordshire North East1,2901,54216902190003,220
North HertfordshireLetchworth Grange5,818Hertfordshire North East2,0181,68834502050004,256
North HertfordshireLetchworth South East5,824Hertfordshire North East2,2391,65817901860004,262
North HertfordshireLetchworth South West6,266Hertfordshire North East2,6021,21046603060004,584
North HertfordshireLetchworth Wilbury4,219Hertfordshire North East1,2871,5419901590003,086
North HertfordshireRoyston Heath4,160Hertfordshire North East1,71378040001500003,043
North HertfordshireRoyston Meridian4,289Hertfordshire North East1,93767537301530003,138
North HertfordshireRoyston Palace4,151Hertfordshire North East1,5041,07632001380003,038
North HertfordshireWeston and Sandon1,662Hertfordshire North East6151473870660001,215
 Total75,966 32,58815,7504,27702,96500055,580

The full details of these calculations are given on the Hertfordshire North East seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Welwyn Hatfield

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Welwyn Hatfield, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Welwyn HatfieldTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
St AlbansColney Heath40St Albans14860000028
Welwyn HatfieldBrookmans Park and Little Heath4,083Welwyn Hatfield2,1984971514380062,894
Welwyn HatfieldHaldens4,426Welwyn Hatfield1,4661,287205127490043,138
Welwyn HatfieldHandside4,709Welwyn Hatfield1,8048495988740043,337
Welwyn HatfieldHatfield Central4,904Welwyn Hatfield1,4421,5631982045600133,476
Welwyn HatfieldHatfield East4,689Welwyn Hatfield1,6651,32218367770093,323
Welwyn HatfieldHatfield South5,263Welwyn Hatfield1,3181,860342144580093,731
Welwyn HatfieldHatfield Villages5,781Welwyn Hatfield2,0801,65320260950074,097
Welwyn HatfieldHatfield West6,394Welwyn Hatfield1,9931,9703201411010084,533
Welwyn HatfieldHollybush5,024Welwyn Hatfield1,7971,451133147280073,563
Welwyn HatfieldHowlands4,180Welwyn Hatfield1,3961,231162137340042,964
Welwyn HatfieldPanshanger4,557Welwyn Hatfield1,7691,133181832300403,229
Welwyn HatfieldPeartree5,267Welwyn Hatfield1,4581,641405191350033,733
Welwyn HatfieldSherrards4,098Welwyn Hatfield1,67090122831730032,906
Welwyn HatfieldWelham Green2,581Welwyn Hatfield96246230578180041,829
Welwyn HatfieldWelwyn East4,119Welwyn Hatfield2,0936291537360022,920
Welwyn HatfieldWelwyn West2,774Welwyn Hatfield1,24754866104000551,966
 Total72,889 26,37219,0053,8381,4398350017851,667

The full details of these calculations are given on the Welwyn Hatfield seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Welwyn Hatfield

The new seat of Welwyn Hatfield is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Welwyn Hatfield
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old Seat CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
East HertfordshireHertford Rural North1,769Hertfordshire North East1,009215440680001,336
East HertfordshireHertford Rural South1,968Hertfordshire North East1,0323181070250001,482
Welwyn HatfieldBrookmans Park and Little Heath4,516Welwyn Hatfield2,1984971514380062,894
Welwyn HatfieldHaldens4,667Welwyn Hatfield1,4661,287205127490043,138
Welwyn HatfieldHandside5,130Welwyn Hatfield1,8048495988740043,337
Welwyn HatfieldHatfield Central4,137Welwyn Hatfield1,4421,5631982045600133,476
Welwyn HatfieldHatfield East4,501Welwyn Hatfield1,6651,32218367770093,323
Welwyn HatfieldHatfield South3,036Welwyn Hatfield1,3181,860342144580093,731
Welwyn HatfieldHatfield Villages3,522Welwyn Hatfield2,0801,65320260950074,097
Welwyn HatfieldHatfield West5,218Welwyn Hatfield1,9931,9703201411010084,533
Welwyn HatfieldHollybush4,985Welwyn Hatfield1,7971,451133147280073,563
Welwyn HatfieldHowlands4,398Welwyn Hatfield1,3961,231162137340042,964
Welwyn HatfieldPanshanger4,671Welwyn Hatfield1,7691,133181832300403,229
Welwyn HatfieldPeartree5,135Welwyn Hatfield1,4581,641405191350033,733
Welwyn HatfieldSherrards4,319Welwyn Hatfield1,67090122831730032,906
Welwyn HatfieldWelham Green2,788Welwyn Hatfield96246230578180041,829
Welwyn HatfieldWelwyn East4,787Welwyn Hatfield2,0936291537360022,920
Welwyn HatfieldWelwyn West3,216Welwyn Hatfield1,24754866104000551,966
 Total72,763 28,39919,5303,9831,4399280017854,457

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Welwyn Hatfield.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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