Wiltshire North: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Wiltshire North: Overview

 Projection: CON seat 

Implied MP at 2017: James Gray  (CON)
County/Area: Wiltshire (South West)
Electorate: 73,782
Turnout: 80.6%

 Implied 2017 VotesImplied 2017 Share
CON Majority22,70038.2%

See overview of other seats in South West.

Wiltshire North : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Wiltshire North constituency, the 'South West' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatSouth WestAll GB
Economic Position6° Right1° Right
National Position1° Int1° Nat1° Int
EU Leave %49%53%52%
British Identity31%27%29%
Good Health52%47%48%
UK Born93%92%88%
Good Education45%40%39%
Good Job58%50%51%
High SEC61%52%51%
Average Age50.050.548.5
ABC1 Class63%54%53%

Wiltshire North ranks #408 for "Leave", #188 for "Right" and #383 for "National" out of 600 new seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Wiltshire North: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015


This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Wiltshire North been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

List of old seats forming part of Wiltshire North

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Chippenham

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Chippenham, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: ChippenhamTransfer-adjusted Results
New SeatCON
WiltshireBradford-on-Avon North3,735Wiltshire West1,297514980000002,791
WiltshireBradford-on-Avon South3,750Wiltshire West1,2764991,029000002,804
WiltshireChippenham Cepen Park and Derriads3,513Wiltshire North1,629567430000002,626
WiltshireChippenham Cepen Park and Redlands3,875Wiltshire North1,835633428000002,896
WiltshireChippenham Hardenhuish3,801Wiltshire North1,470623749000002,842
WiltshireChippenham Hardens and England3,419Wiltshire North1,153618786000002,557
WiltshireChippenham Lowden and Rowden3,702Wiltshire North1,425654690000002,769
WiltshireChippenham Monkton2,964Wiltshire North964309943000002,216
WiltshireChippenham Pewsham3,628Wiltshire North1,317465931000002,713
WiltshireChippenham Queens and Sheldon3,587Wiltshire North1,381533767000002,681
WiltshireCorsham Pickwick3,943Wiltshire West1,658712577000002,947
WiltshireCorsham Town3,727Wiltshire West1,564474748000002,786
WiltshireCorsham Without and Box Hill2,548Wiltshire West1,300289316000001,905
WiltshireHilperton3,877Wiltshire West1,897681320000002,898
WiltshireHolt and Staverton3,585Wiltshire West1,361478840000002,679
WiltshireMelksham Central4,010Wiltshire West1,485772741000002,998
WiltshireMelksham North3,675Wiltshire West1,408604736000002,748
WiltshireMelksham South3,989Wiltshire West1,4414951,046000002,982
WiltshireMelksham Without North3,505Wiltshire West1,818477325000002,620
WiltshireMelksham Without South3,956Wiltshire West1,954508496000002,958
WiltshireSummerham and Seend747Wiltshire West446575500000558
WiltshireWinsley and Westwood2,899Wiltshire West1,190273704000002,167
 Total76,435 31,26911,23514,6370000057,141

The full details of these calculations are given on the Chippenham seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Wiltshire North

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Wiltshire North, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Wiltshire NorthTransfer-adjusted Results
New SeatCON
WiltshireBox and Colerne4,211Wiltshire North1,73154075259200483,168
WiltshireBrinkworth3,608Wiltshire North1,85440835831580052,714
WiltshireBy Brook3,642Wiltshire North1,919379347295400102,738
WiltshireCalne Central3,364Devizes1,239559582865100132,530
WiltshireCalne Chilvester and Abberd4,096Devizes1,773520586111810093,080
WiltshireCalne North3,862Devizes1,325752665796900142,904
WiltshireCalne Rural3,525Devizes1,660506319276400752,651
WiltshireCalne South and Cherhill3,800Devizes1,636512567607200112,858
WiltshireChippenham Cepen Park and Redlands64Wiltshire North271361100048
WiltshireChippenham Hardens and England21Wiltshire North6540000015
WiltshireCorsham Pickwick219Wiltshire West77512736000164
WiltshireCorsham Without and Box Hill1,828Wiltshire West85428018712350071,375
WiltshireCricklade and Latton4,020Wiltshire North1,69140484520560083,024
WiltshireKington3,975Wiltshire North2,03448437637550052,991
WiltshireLyneham4,412Wiltshire North2,3114053891166800293,318
WiltshireMalmesbury4,364Wiltshire North1,463762909261150093,284
WiltshireMinety3,827Wiltshire North1,916557291436000122,879
WiltshirePurton3,437Wiltshire North1,837372220294300852,586
WiltshireRoyal Wootton Bassett East3,562Wiltshire North1,9102404978170072,679
WiltshireRoyal Wootton Bassett North3,583Wiltshire North1,492538516944400112,695
WiltshireRoyal Wootton Bassett South4,152Wiltshire North1,601693695546700133,123
WiltshireSherston3,836Wiltshire North2,0454193821340052,886
 Total71,408 32,4019,3999,5208721,1420037653,710

The full details of these calculations are given on the Wiltshire North seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Wiltshire North

The new seat of Wiltshire North is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Wiltshire North
Old Seat CON
WiltshireBox and Colerne3,670Wiltshire North1,73154075259200483,168
WiltshireBrinkworth3,687Wiltshire North1,85440835831580052,714
WiltshireBy Brook3,475Wiltshire North1,919379347295400102,738
WiltshireChippenham Cepen Park and Derriads3,326Chippenham1,629567430000002,626
WiltshireChippenham Cepen Park and Redlands3,300Chippenham1,831635427110002,895
WiltshireChippenham Cepen Park and Redlands55Wiltshire North311170000049
WiltshireChippenham Hardenhuish3,210Chippenham1,470623749000002,842
WiltshireChippenham Hardens and England2,987Chippenham1,152619785000002,556
WiltshireChippenham Hardens and England18Wiltshire North7450000016
WiltshireChippenham Lowden and Rowden3,430Chippenham1,425654690000002,769
WiltshireChippenham Monkton2,921Chippenham964309943000002,216
WiltshireChippenham Pewsham3,266Chippenham1,317465931000002,713
WiltshireChippenham Queens and Sheldon3,244Chippenham1,381533767000002,681
WiltshireCricklade and Latton3,816Wiltshire North1,69140484520560083,024
WiltshireKington3,822Wiltshire North2,03448437637550052,991
WiltshireLyneham2,876Wiltshire North2,3114053891166800293,318
WiltshireMalmesbury3,790Wiltshire North1,463762909261150093,284
WiltshireMinety3,700Wiltshire North1,916557291436000122,879
WiltshirePurton3,637Wiltshire North1,837372220294300852,586
WiltshireRoyal Wootton Bassett East3,654Wiltshire North1,9102404978170072,679
WiltshireRoyal Wootton Bassett North3,395Wiltshire North1,492538516944400112,695
WiltshireRoyal Wootton Bassett South4,612Wiltshire North1,601693695546700133,123
WiltshireSherston3,891Wiltshire North2,0454193821340052,886
 Total73,782 35,01110,62112,3114947640024759,448

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Wiltshire North.

© 2018 Electoral Calculus Ltd
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