Vulnerable Seats

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Seats	Pred Votes	Gains	Losses	Net Change	Pred Seats
CON	24.4%	121	19.7%	22	11	+11	132
LAB	34.7%	412	23.9%	5	173	-168	244
LIB	12.6%	72	10.8%	0	2	-2	70
Reform	14.7%	5	23.4%	123	1	+122	127
Green	6.9%	4	11.4%	8	2	+6	10
SNP	2.6%	9	2.9%	36	1	+35	44
PlaidC	0.7%	4	0.7%	0	1	-1	3
Other	3.5%	5	7.3%	1	4	-3	2
SF		7		0	0	+0	7
DUP		5		0	0	+0	5
SDLP		2		0	0	+0	2
UUP		1		0	0	+0	1
Alliance		1		0	0	+0	1
TUV		1		0	0	+0	1
NI Other		1		0	0	+0	1

Seat	County/Area	Predicted Change			MP as at 2024
Aberdeen South	Grampian	CON	gain from	SNP	Stephen Flynn
Airdrie and Shotts	Glasgow area	SNP	gain from	LAB	Kenneth Stevenson
Aldershot	Hampshire	Reform	gain from	LAB	Alex Baker
Alloa and Grangemouth	Central	SNP	gain from	LAB	Brian Leishman
Alyn and Deeside	Clwyd	Reform	gain from	LAB	Mark Tami
Amber Valley	Derbyshire	Reform	gain from	LAB	Linsey Farnsworth
Ashford	Kent	Reform	gain from	LAB	Sojan Joseph
Aylesbury	Buckinghamshire	CON	gain from (TV)	LAB	Laura Elizabeth Kyrke-Smith
Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock	Ayrshire and Lanark	SNP	gain from	LAB	Elaine Stewart
Ayrshire Central	Ayrshire and Lanark	SNP	gain from	LAB	Alan Gemmell
Ayrshire North and Arran	Ayrshire and Lanark	SNP	gain from	LAB	Irene Campbell
Bangor Aberconwy	Clwyd	Reform	gain from	LAB	Claire Hughes
Barnsley South	South Yorkshire	LAB	hold (TV)	LAB	Stephanie Peacock
Basildon and Billericay	Essex	Reform	gain from	CON	Richard John Holden
Bassetlaw	Nottinghamshire	Reform	gain from	LAB	Jo White
Bathgate and Linlithgow	Edinburgh area	SNP	gain from	LAB	Kirsteen Sullivan
Bethnal Green and Stepney	Tower Hamlets	Green	gain from	LAB	Rushanara Ali
Bexhill and Battle	East Sussex	Reform	gain from	CON	Kieran Mullan
Bexleyheath and Crayford	Bexley	Reform	gain from	LAB	Daniel Francis
Birmingham Ladywood	Birmingham	Green	gain from	LAB	Shabana Mahmood
Birmingham Northfield	Birmingham	Reform	gain from	LAB	Laurence Turner
Birmingham Perry Barr	Birmingham	LAB	gain from	MIN	Ayoub Khan
Birmingham Yardley	Birmingham	LAB	hold (TV)	LAB	Jess Phillips
Bishop Auckland	Durham	Reform	gain from	LAB	Sam Rushworth
Blackburn	Lancashire	LAB	gain from	MIN	Adnan Hussain
Blackpool North and Fleetwood	Lancashire	Reform	gain from	LAB	Lorraine Beavers
Blyth and Ashington	Northumberland	Reform	gain from	LAB	Ian Lavery
Bognor Regis and Littlehampton	West Sussex	CON	hold (TV)	CON	Ali Griffiths
Bolsover	Derbyshire	Reform	gain from	LAB	Natalie Fleet
Bolton North East	Western Manchester	LAB	hold (TV)	LAB	Kirith Entwistle
Bolton West	Western Manchester	Reform	gain from	LAB	Phil Brickell
Bournemouth West	Dorset	Reform	gain from	LAB	Jessica Toale
Bracknell	Berkshire	Reform	gain from	LAB	Peter Swallow
Braintree	Essex	CON	hold (TV)	CON	James Cleverly
Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe	Powys	CON	gain from	LIB	David Chadwick
Bridgend	Mid Glamorgan	Reform	gain from (TV)	LAB	Chris Elmore
Bridgwater	Somerset	CON	hold (TV)	CON	Ashley Fox
Bridlington and the Wolds	Humber area	CON	hold (TV)	CON	Charlie Dewhirst
Brigg and Immingham	Humber area	CON	hold (TV)	CON	Martin Vickers
Broadland and Fakenham	Norfolk	CON	hold (TV)	CON	Jerome Mayhew
Buckingham and Bletchley	Buckinghamshire	CON	gain from	LAB	Callum Anderson
Burnley	Lancashire	Reform	gain from	LAB	Oliver Ryan
Burton and Uttoxeter	Staffordshire	Reform	gain from	LAB	Jacob Collier
Bury St Edmunds and Stowmarket	Suffolk	Reform	gain from	LAB	Peter Prinsley
Caerphilly	Gwent	Reform	gain from	LAB	Chris Evans
Camborne and Redruth	Cornwall	Reform	gain from	LAB	Perran Moon
Cambridgeshire North East	Cambridgeshire	CON	hold (TV)	CON	Steve Barclay
Cambridgeshire North West	Cambridgeshire	Reform	gain from	LAB	Sam Carling
Cannock Chase	Staffordshire	Reform	gain from	LAB	Josh Newbury
Carlisle	Cumbria	Reform	gain from	LAB	Julie Minns
Castle Point	Essex	Reform	gain from	CON	Rebecca Harris
Chatham and Aylesford	Kent	Reform	gain from	LAB	Tristan Osborne
Chelsea and Fulham	Hammersmith and Fulham	CON	gain from	LAB	Ben Coleman
Chipping Barnet	Barnet	CON	gain from	LAB	Dan Tomlinson
Christchurch	Dorset	CON	hold (TV)	CON	Christopher Chope
Cities of London and Westminster	City of Westminster	CON	gain from	LAB	Rachel Blake
Clwyd East	Clwyd	Reform	gain from	LAB	Becky Gittins
Clwyd North	Clwyd	CON	gain from	LAB	Gill German
Coatbridge and Bellshill	Glasgow area	SNP	gain from	LAB	Frank McNally
Corby and East Northamptonshire	Northamptonshire	Reform	gain from	LAB	Lee Barron
Cornwall South East	Cornwall	Reform	gain from	LAB	Anna Gelderd
Cowdenbeath and Kirkcaldy	Fife	SNP	gain from	LAB	Melanie Ward
Crawley	West Sussex	Reform	gain from	LAB	Peter Lamb
Cumbernauld and Kirkintilloch	Glasgow area	SNP	gain from	LAB	Katrina Murray
Dagenham and Rainham	Barking and Dagenham	LAB	hold (TV)	LAB	Margaret Mullane
Dartford	Kent	CON	gain from (TV)	LAB	Jim Dickson
Derbyshire Dales	Derbyshire	Reform	gain from	LAB	John Michael Whitby
Derbyshire North East	Derbyshire	Reform	gain from	LAB	Louise Elizabeth Jones
Dewsbury and Batley	West Yorkshire	LAB	gain from	MIN	Iqbal Hussain Mohamed
Doncaster Central	South Yorkshire	Reform	gain from	LAB	Sally Jameson
Doncaster East and the Isle of Axholme	South Yorkshire	Reform	gain from	LAB	Lee Pitcher
Dorset South	Dorset	Reform	gain from	LAB	Lloyd Hatton
Dover and Deal	Kent	Reform	gain from	LAB	Mike Tapp
Dudley	Black Country	Reform	gain from	LAB	Sonia Kumar
Dumfries and Galloway	Dumfries and Galloway	SNP	gain from	CON	John Cooper
Dunbartonshire West	Glasgow area	SNP	gain from	LAB	Douglas McAllister
Dunfermline and Dollar	Fife	SNP	gain from	LAB	Graeme Downie
Dunstable and Leighton Buzzard	Bedfordshire	Reform	gain from	LAB	Alex Mayer
Durham North	Durham	Reform	gain from	LAB	Luke Akehurst
Earley and Woodley	Berkshire	CON	gain from	LAB	Yuan Yang
Easington	Durham	Reform	gain from	LAB	Grahame Morris
East Kilbride and Strathaven	Ayrshire and Lanark	SNP	gain from	LAB	Joani Reid
Edinburgh East and Musselburgh	Edinburgh area	SNP	gain from	LAB	Chris Murray
Edinburgh North and Leith	Edinburgh area	SNP	gain from	LAB	Tracy Gilbert
Edinburgh South West	Edinburgh area	SNP	gain from	LAB	Scott Arthur
Erewash	Derbyshire	Reform	gain from	LAB	Adam Thompson
Falkirk	Central	SNP	gain from	LAB	Euan Stainbank
Faversham and Mid Kent	Kent	Reform	gain from	CON	Helen Whately
Folkestone and Hythe	Kent	Reform	gain from	LAB	Tony Vaughan
Forest of Dean	Gloucestershire	Reform	gain from	LAB	Matt Bishop
Gainsborough	Lincolnshire	CON	hold (TV)	CON	Sir Edward Leigh
Gillingham and Rainham	Kent	Reform	gain from	LAB	Naushabah Khan
Glasgow East	Glasgow area	SNP	gain from	LAB	John Grady
Glasgow North	Glasgow area	SNP	gain from	LAB	Martin Rhodes
Glasgow North East	Glasgow area	SNP	gain from	LAB	Maureen Burke
Glasgow South	Glasgow area	SNP	gain from	LAB	Gordon McKee
Glasgow South West	Glasgow area	SNP	gain from	LAB	Zubir Ahmed
Glasgow West	Glasgow area	SNP	gain from	LAB	Patricia Ferguson
Glenrothes and Mid Fife	Fife	SNP	gain from	LAB	Richard Baker
Gloucester	Gloucestershire	Reform	gain from	LAB	Alex McIntyre
Gordon and Buchan	Grampian	CON	hold (TV)	CON	Harriet Cross
Grantham and Bourne	Lincolnshire	CON	hold (TV)	CON	Gareth Davies
Gravesham	Kent	Reform	gain from	LAB	Lauren Sullivan
Great Grimsby and Cleethorpes	Humber area	Reform	gain from	LAB	Melanie Onn
Great Yarmouth	Norfolk	MIN	gain from	Reform	Rupert Lowe
Hackney South and Shoreditch	Hackney	Green	gain from	LAB	Meg Hillier
Halesowen	Black Country	Reform	gain from	LAB	Alex Ballinger
Hamilton and Clyde Valley	Ayrshire and Lanark	SNP	gain from	LAB	Imogen Walker
Hampshire North East	Hampshire	CON	gain from	LIB	Alex Brewer
Harlow	Essex	Reform	gain from	LAB	Christopher John Vince
Hartlepool	Teesside	Reform	gain from	LAB	Jonathan Brash
Havant	Hampshire	Reform	gain from	CON	Alan Mak
Hemel Hempstead	Hertfordshire	Reform	gain from	LAB	David Taylor
Hendon	Barnet	CON	gain from	LAB	David Pinto-Duschinsky
Hereford and South Herefordshire	Hereford and Worcestershire	CON	hold (TV)	CON	Jesse Norman
Herefordshire North	Hereford and Worcestershire	CON	gain from (TV)	Green	Ellie Chowns
Herne Bay and Sandwich	Kent	CON	hold (TV)	CON	Roger Gale
Hertfordshire North East	Hertfordshire	Reform	gain from	LAB	Chris Hinchliff
Hinckley and Bosworth	Leicestershire	CON	hold (TV)	CON	Luke Evans
Hornchurch and Upminster	Havering	Reform	gain from	CON	Julia Lopez
Hull East	Humber area	Reform	gain from	LAB	Karl Turner
Hull West and Haltemprice	Humber area	Reform	gain from	LAB	Emma Hardy
Hyndburn	Lancashire	Reform	gain from	LAB	Sarah Smith
Inverclyde and Renfrewshire West	Glasgow area	SNP	gain from	LAB	Martin McCluskey
Isle of Wight East	Hampshire	CON	hold (TV)	CON	Joe Robertson
Isle of Wight West	Hampshire	Reform	gain from	LAB	Richard Quigley
Keighley and Ilkley	West Yorkshire	LAB	gain from	CON	Robbie Moore
Kensington and Bayswater	Kensington and Chelsea	CON	gain from	LAB	Joe Powell
Kettering	Northamptonshire	Reform	gain from	LAB	Rosie Wrighting
Kilmarnock and Loudoun	Ayrshire and Lanark	SNP	gain from	LAB	Lillian Jones
Leeds Central and Headingley	West Yorkshire	Green	gain from	LAB	Alex Sobel
Leicester South	Leicestershire	LAB	gain from	MIN	Shockat Adam
Leicestershire North West	Leicestershire	Reform	gain from	LAB	Amanda Hack
Lewisham North	Lewisham	Green	gain from	LAB	Vicky Foxcroft
Lichfield	Staffordshire	Reform	gain from	LAB	Dave Robertson
Livingston	Edinburgh area	SNP	gain from	LAB	Gregor Poynton
Llanelli	Dyfed	Reform	gain from	LAB	Nia Griffith
Louth and Horncastle	Lincolnshire	CON	hold (TV)	CON	Victoria Atkins
Lowestoft	Suffolk	Reform	gain from	LAB	Jessica Asato
Maidenhead	Berkshire	LIB	hold (TV)	LIB	Joshua Peter Reynolds
Maidstone and Malling	Kent	CON	hold (TV)	CON	Helen Grant
Maldon	Essex	CON	hold (TV)	CON	John Whittingdale
Manchester Rusholme	Central Manchester	Green	gain from	LAB	Afzal Khan
Mansfield	Nottinghamshire	Reform	gain from	LAB	Steve Yemm
Melton and Syston	Leicestershire	CON	hold (TV)	CON	Edward Argar
Middlesbrough South and East Cleveland	Teesside	CON	gain from	LAB	Luke Myer
Midlothian	Edinburgh area	SNP	gain from	LAB	Kirsty McNeill
Monmouthshire	Gwent	CON	gain from	LAB	Catherine Fookes
Montgomeryshire and Glyndwr	Powys	Reform	gain from	LAB	Steve Witherden
Morecambe and Lunesdale	Lancashire	Reform	gain from	LAB	Lizzi Collinge
Motherwell, Wishaw and Carluke	Glasgow area	SNP	gain from	LAB	Pamela Nash
Na h-Eileanan An Iar (Western Isles)	Western Isles	SNP	gain from	LAB	Torcuil Crichton
Neath and Swansea East	West Glamorgan	Reform	gain from	LAB	Carolyn Harris
Newcastle-under-Lyme	Staffordshire	Reform	gain from	LAB	Adam Jogee
Newport East	Gwent	Reform	gain from (TV)	LAB	Jessica Morden
Newton Aycliffe and Spennymoor	Durham	Reform	gain from	LAB	Alan Strickland
Norfolk Mid	Norfolk	CON	hold (TV)	CON	George Freeman
Norfolk North West	Norfolk	CON	hold (TV)	CON	James Wild
Norfolk South	Norfolk	Reform	gain from	LAB	Ben Goldsborough
Norfolk South West	Norfolk	Reform	gain from	LAB	Terry Jermy
Northampton South	Northamptonshire	Reform	gain from	LAB	Mike Reader
Northumberland North	Northumberland	Reform	gain from (TV)	LAB	David Smith
Nuneaton	Warwickshire	Reform	gain from	LAB	Jodie Gosling
Ossett and Denby Dale	West Yorkshire	Reform	gain from	LAB	Jade Botterill
Paisley and Renfrewshire North	Glasgow area	SNP	gain from	LAB	Alison Suzanne Watt Taylor
Paisley and Renfrewshire South	Glasgow area	SNP	gain from	LAB	Johanna Baxter
Peckham	Southwark	Green	gain from	LAB	Miatta Fahnbulleh
Pembrokeshire Mid and South	Dyfed	Reform	gain from	LAB	Henry Tufnell
Pendle and Clitheroe	Lancashire	Reform	gain from	LAB	Jonathan James Hinder
Penistone and Stocksbridge	South Yorkshire	Reform	gain from	LAB	Marie Tidball
Peterborough	Cambridgeshire	Reform	gain from	LAB	Andrew Pakes
Plymouth Moor View	Devon	Reform	gain from	LAB	Fred Thomas
Poole	Dorset	Reform	gain from	LAB	Neil John Duncan-Jordan
Portsmouth North	Hampshire	Reform	gain from	LAB	Amanda Martin
Rawmarsh and Conisbrough	South Yorkshire	LAB	hold (TV)	LAB	John Healey
Rayleigh and Wickford	Essex	CON	hold (TV)	CON	Mark Francois
Reading West and Mid Berkshire	Berkshire	CON	gain from	LAB	Olivia Bailey
Redcar	Teesside	Reform	gain from	LAB	Anna Turley
Redditch	Hereford and Worcestershire	Reform	gain from	LAB	Christopher James Bloore
Renfrewshire East	Glasgow area	SNP	gain from	LAB	Blair McDougall
Ribble Valley	Lancashire	CON	gain from	LAB	Maya Ellis
Rochester and Strood	Kent	Reform	gain from	LAB	Lauren Rae Edwards
Rother Valley	South Yorkshire	Reform	gain from	LAB	Jake Richards
Rugby	Warwickshire	Reform	gain from	LAB	John Anthony Slinger
Rutherglen	Ayrshire and Lanark	SNP	gain from	LAB	Michael Shanks
Scarborough and Whitby	North Yorkshire	Reform	gain from	LAB	Alison Hume
Scunthorpe	Humber area	Reform	gain from	LAB	Nicholas Dakin
Sherwood Forest	Nottinghamshire	Reform	gain from	LAB	Michelle Welsh
Shrewsbury	Shropshire	LAB	hold (TV)	LAB	Julia Buckley
Sittingbourne and Sheppey	Kent	Reform	gain from	LAB	Kevin McKenna
Sleaford and North Hykeham	Lincolnshire	CON	hold (TV)	CON	Caroline Johnson
Somerset North East and Hanham	Bristol area	Reform	gain from	LAB	Dan Norris
South Holland and The Deepings	Lincolnshire	CON	hold (TV)	CON	John Hayes
Southampton Itchen	Hampshire	LAB	hold (TV)	LAB	Darren Paffey
Southend East and Rochford	Essex	Reform	gain from	LAB	Bayo Alaba
Southend West and Leigh	Essex	Reform	gain from	LAB	David Edmund Burton-Sampson
Southport	Merseyside	Reform	gain from	LAB	Patrick Brian Hurley
Spen Valley	West Yorkshire	Reform	gain from	LAB	Kim Leadbeater
St Austell and Newquay	Cornwall	Reform	gain from	LAB	Noah Law
Stafford	Staffordshire	Reform	gain from	LAB	Leigh Ingham
Staffordshire Moorlands	Staffordshire	Reform	gain from	CON	Karen Bradley
Stirling and Strathallan	Central	SNP	gain from	LAB	Chris Kane
Stoke-on-Trent Central	Staffordshire	LAB	hold (TV)	LAB	Gareth Snell
Stoke-on-Trent North	Staffordshire	Reform	gain from	LAB	David Williams
Stoke-on-Trent South	Staffordshire	Reform	gain from	LAB	Allison Gardner
Stourbridge	Black Country	Reform	gain from	LAB	Cat Eccles
Suffolk Central and North Ipswich	Suffolk	CON	hold (TV)	CON	Patrick Spencer
Suffolk Coastal	Suffolk	Reform	gain from	LAB	Jenny Riddell-Carpenter
Suffolk South	Suffolk	Reform	gain from	CON	James Cartlidge
Suffolk West	Suffolk	CON	hold (TV)	CON	Nick Timothy
Sunderland Central	Newcastle area	LAB	hold (TV)	LAB	Lewis Atkinson
Sussex Weald	East Sussex	CON	hold (TV)	CON	Nus Ghani
Swindon North	Wiltshire	Reform	gain from	LAB	Will Stone
Tamworth	Staffordshire	Reform	gain from	LAB	Sarah Edwards
Telford	Shropshire	LAB	hold (TV)	LAB	Shaun Davies
Thanet East	Kent	LAB	hold (TV)	LAB	Polly Billington
Thurrock	Essex	Reform	gain from	LAB	Jennifer Craft
Tipton and Wednesbury	Black Country	Reform	gain from	LAB	Antonia Bance
Torfaen	Gwent	Reform	gain from	LAB	Nick Thomas-Symonds
Torridge and Tavistock	Devon	CON	hold (TV)	CON	Geoffrey Cox
Uxbridge and South Ruislip	Hillingdon	CON	gain from	LAB	Danny Boy Beales
Vale of Glamorgan	South Glamorgan	CON	gain from	LAB	Kanishka Narayan
Vauxhall and Camberwell Green	Lambeth	Green	gain from	LAB	Florence Eshalomi
Walsall and Bloxwich	Black Country	Reform	gain from	LAB	Valerie Vaz
Warwickshire North and Bedworth	Warwickshire	Reform	gain from	LAB	Rachel Margaret Taylor
Watford	Hertfordshire	Reform	gain from	LAB	Matt Turmaine
Waveney Valley	Suffolk	Reform	gain from	Green	Adrian Ramsay
Wellingborough and Rushden	Northamptonshire	Reform	gain from	LAB	Gen Kitchen
Welwyn Hatfield	Hertfordshire	CON	gain from	LAB	Andrew Lewin
Weston-super-Mare	Bristol area	Reform	gain from	LAB	Dan Aldridge
Wolverhampton North East	Black Country	Reform	gain from	LAB	Sureena Brackenridge
Worthing West	West Sussex	Reform	gain from	LAB	Beccy Cooper
Wrexham	Clwyd	Reform	gain from	LAB	Andrew Steven Ranger
Wyre Forest	Hereford and Worcestershire	Reform	gain from	CON	Mark Garnier
Ynys Mon (Anglesey)	Gwynedd	CON	gain from	Plaid	Llinos Medi

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2024. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.

Vulnerable Seats

Current Prediction: Labour short 82 of majority

List of predicted seat changes