User-defined Poll

This page allows you to make your own predictions both for the entire country and for any particular Westminster constituency in England, Scotland and Wales. All you need is your own estimate (or guess) of national opinion support for the three major parties. This may come from:

To specify non-uniform regional swings, use the Regional Predictor.


To make your prediction, enter the national (GB) support levels for the three major parties. (The actual election results are shown for reference.)
Advanced options: you can also enter tactical fractions (usually between 0% and 50%).

Tactical voting
 CONLABLIBUKIPSNP
2010 Votes36.97%29.66%23.56%3.17% 
Predicted
GB support
% % % %  
Tactical
Fraction
% % % %  
Scotland
GE Votes
16.75%42.00%18.88%0.70%19.93%
Scotland
Support
% % % % %

What to display
Region/seat to display
Seat Boundaries to use
 

Notes The usual display is of all the seats predicted to change hands ("All GB changed seats"). You can select other displays from the 'What to display' menu list, which includes a majority-sorted list of all GB seats, and the option to study any region or seat in detail. If studying a region or seat is selected, then use the 'Region/seat to display' menu to choose the particular region or seat to display. A map of regions can help.

Tactical voting The "tactical fraction" of voters who will switch parties if their preferred party is unlikely to win can be entered if you tick the "Tactical voting" box. Typical values are between 0% (no tactical voting) and 50% (half of voters might vote tactically).

Boundaries Predictions can be made on the basis of the existing 2010 constituency boundaries (650 seats), the proposed new boundaries (600 seats), or any historic election since 1983.



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