User-defined Regional Poll

This page lets you make a prediction for the whole country that not only uses the national support figures, but also allows for regional variation.

Firstly, enter the national support figures in the first line of the table below to set the overall national swing. Our current national support figures are shown, but you can override them. As you enter national support figures, the national trend values to the right will update.

Then, region-by-region, please enter the support for each party in each region. (Area definitions) This allows different regions to have different swings from the national trend. For reference, the national trend figures on the right give a helpful indication of the expected regional support if there were no differences in swing between regions. As a starting point, you can use the uniform national trend figures (press "Use Trend Values").

Current Regional Support   National trend
Area  Con %  Lab %  Lib %  UKIP %   Green %  Nat %     Con %  Lab %  Lib %  UKIP %   Green %  Nat % 
National support
Scotland 000000
The North 00000
North West 00000
Yorks/Humber 00000
Wales 000000
West Midlands 00000
East Midlands 00000
Anglia 00000
South West 00000
London 00000
South East 00000
National average 00000 00000
    
   
 
 
   
 
What to display
 
Region/seat to display
 
Seat Boundaries to use
 

Notes and Guidance

You should try to ensure that the average of the regional support figures is approximately equal to the national support. The algorithm will correct for any difference, but a large gap may cause accuracy problems.

You can display just the seats predicted to change hands ("All GB changed seats"), or see a majority-sorted list of all GB seats ("All GB seats majority-sorted"), or study any region in detail. If a region is selected, the 'Individual seat' menu list allows you to see all the region's seats majority-sorted, or to examine a particular single constituency.

Opportunities in which this page can be used:

  1. You may have your own intuition or data implying differences in swing between regions. In this case, enter the national support figures from recent polling, and the "National Trend" entries will update. Then apply your swing differences to those trends to infer regional support levels. For instance, if you think that the Conservatives will have 5% less gain in the North than nationally, just subtract 5% from the "National Trend" figure for Con in "The North" to get their regional support there.
  2. Incorporating a Scotland or Wales poll with national polls. Just press the "Use Trend Values" button to set the support in the English regions, then enter the results of the Scottish and/or Welsh poll as the region support levels there. Then press "Predict Election".
  3. Using a large-scale poll which provides regional breakdown. The results of such a poll can be entered directly into the cells above.

Predictions can be made on the basis of the existing 2010 constituency boundaries (650 seats), the proposed new 2018 boundaries (600 seats), or any historic election since 1983.


Areas

The areas shown are made up of Electoral Calculus regions (large map) in the following way.

AreaRegionsCounties (historic)
ScotlandEast Scotland
West Scotland
All Scotland
The NorthNorthCumbria, Northumberland, Newcastle area, Durham, Teesside
North WestLancashire
Greater Manchester
Lancashire, Merseyside
Manchester boroughs
Yorks/HumberYorkshire
Humberside
North Yorkshire, West Yorkshire
South Yorkshire, Humber area, Lincolnshire
WalesWalesAll Wales
West MidlandsSevern
West Midlands
Cheshire, Shropshire, Staffordshire, Hereford & Worcestershire
Birmingham, Black Country, Coventry and Solihull
East MidlandsEast MidlandsDerbyshire, Nottinghamshire, Leicestershire, Warwickshire
AngliaEast Anglia
Essex
Northamptonshire, Bedfordshire, Cambridgeshire, Norfolk, Suffolk
Buckinghamshire, Essex, Hertfordshire
South WestSouth West
West
Cornwall, Devon, Somerset, Dorset
Bristol Area, Gloucestershire, Wiltshire, Oxfordshire
LondonNorth London
South London
All London Boroughs
South EastSouth
South East
Berkshire, Hampshire, Surrey
West Sussex, East Sussex, Kent

These are similar, but not identical, to current adminstrative regional definitions.



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