Northern Ireland: New Constituency Boundaries 2023

Each new seat can be described as a combination of parts of old seats. These tables show this decomposition. The winner of the old seat at the 2019 election is shown by party colour, as is the implied winner of the new seat.

The implied results are calculated using the local election results for the wards which make up each old seat. This should give the most accurate projection, since it reflects varying political behaviour across the seat.

Northern Ireland Change Table

PartyOld SeatsNew SeatsChangeDisappearSwitch OutSwitch InFresh
UUP0000000
SDLP2200000
DUP8800000
Alliance1100000
Green0000000
SF7700000
MIN0000000
Total181800000

The table shows how the various changes affect each party in this area. The total old and new seats are shown for each party, as well as their difference ('Change'). The change in seats is also explained through the four explanations:

Antrim

New seatPrimary componentSecondary component(s)
Antrim East 97.1% of Antrim East 8.8% of Antrim North
1.1% of Belfast North
0.5% of Antrim South
Antrim North 91.2% of Antrim North 1.2% of Antrim East
Antrim South 97.2% of Antrim South 1.3% of Antrim East
0.9% of Belfast North
0.4% of Lagan Valley
0.3% of Belfast West
Belfast East 94.9% of Belfast East 10.1% of Belfast South
Belfast North 91.5% of Belfast North 3.8% of Belfast West
2.3% of Antrim South
0.4% of Antrim East
Belfast South and Mid Down 89.8% of Belfast South 9.2% of Strangford
3.5% of Lagan Valley
0.9% of Belfast West
Belfast West 95.1% of Belfast West 6.5% of Belfast North
4.9% of Lagan Valley
0.1% of Belfast South

Armagh

New seatPrimary componentSecondary component(s)
Upper Bann 88.7% of Upper Bann 1.8% of Down South
0.6% of Fermanagh and South Tyrone
0.2% of Newry and Armagh
0.1% of Lagan Valley

Down

New seatPrimary componentSecondary component(s)
Down North 100% of Down North 5.1% of Belfast East
Down South 76.8% of Down South 8.9% of Strangford
3.3% of Lagan Valley
2.4% of Upper Bann
0.8% of Newry and Armagh
Lagan Valley 87.8% of Lagan Valley 8.9% of Upper Bann
0.0% of Down South
Newry and Armagh 90.1% of Newry and Armagh 0.8% of Down South
Strangford and Quoile 81.9% of Strangford 20.6% of Down South

Fermanagh

New seatPrimary componentSecondary component(s)
Fermanagh and South Tyrone 86.0% of Fermanagh and South Tyrone 8.9% of Newry and Armagh
1.6% of Ulster Mid
Tyrone West 98.6% of Tyrone West 7.4% of Ulster Mid

Londonderry

New seatPrimary componentSecondary component(s)
Foyle 96.2% of Foyle 1.4% of Tyrone West
Londonderry East 100% of Londonderry East 3.8% of Foyle

Tyrone

New seatPrimary componentSecondary component(s)
Ulster Mid 91.0% of Ulster Mid 13.4% of Fermanagh and South Tyrone