Foyle: New Boundaries 2023 Calculation

Foyle: Overview

Prediction: SDLP

Implied MP at 2019:Colum Eastwood  (SDLP)
County/Area:Londonderry (Northern Ireland)
Electorate:72,202
Turnout:63.4%
Implied Majority 2019:16,266

PartyPredicted VotesPredicted Share
SDLP25,98356.8%
SF9,71721.2%
DUP4,5069.8%
MIN1,9854.3%
OTH1,3132.9%
Alliance1,2442.7%
UUP1,0162.2%
Green40.0%
LAB Majority16,26635.5%

See overview of other seats in Northern Ireland.

Chance of winning
SDLP
100%
SF
0%
DUP
0%
MIN
0%
OTH
0%
Alliance
0%
UUP
0%
Green
0%

Foyle : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Foyle constituency, the 'Northern Ireland' area and nation.

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat Northern IrelandAll UK
Party Winner 2019SDLPDUPCON
Party Winner 2017SFDUPCON
Party Winner 2015SDLPDUPCON
EU Leave %22%44%52%
British Identity19%40%29%
Good Health48%48%48%
UK Born93%93%87%
Good Education34%36%39%
Good Job46%47%51%
High SEC50%57%51%
Average Age45.647.248.3
ABC1 Class41%46%53%
Average House Price£138,516£148,749£305,492
Indicators: Legend and Descriptions
View the colour scheme used in the table above

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) and 'Average House Price' all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
EU Leave % Very Remain Remain Balanced Leave Very Leave
Census Very Low Low Medium High Very High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1
Average House PriceAverage residential house price around 2019. Sources: Land Registry, Statistics Scotland, NI Department of Finance

Foyle: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2021, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

New seat: Foyle

The new seat of Foyle is made up of the following wards, with the predicted votes shown if there were a general election tomorrow.

New seat: FoyleActualPredicted results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old SeatGE19
Winner
Pred
Winner
UUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
Alliance
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Derry and StrabaneBallymagroarty2,788FoyleSDLPSDLP119945490528103681,767
Derry and StrabaneBrandywell2,542FoyleSDLPSDLP10841478055690591,611
Derry and StrabaneCarn Hill2,299FoyleSDLPSDLP98874526034687571,457
Derry and StrabaneCaw2,921FoyleSDLPSDLP1011,01643583015736241,852
Derry and StrabaneCity Walls2,425FoyleSDLPSDLP108574743043489581,538
Derry and StrabaneClondermot2,851FoyleSDLPSDLP8191125867044230201,809
Derry and StrabaneCreggan2,784FoyleSDLPSDLP11916519061698641,765
Derry and StrabaneCreggan South2,810FoyleSDLPSDLP11925529062299651,783
Derry and StrabaneCulmore3,190FoyleSDLPSDLP111,41356790298100662,023
Derry and StrabaneDrumahoe2,981FoyleSDLPSDLP991,03642481017545301,890
Derry and StrabaneEbrington2,703FoyleSDLPSDLP8691336571022632211,714
Derry and StrabaneEnagh2,894FoyleSDLPSDLP531,01632177027457371,835
Derry and StrabaneFoyle Springs2,595FoyleSDLPSDLP109994813042492601,646
Derry and StrabaneGalliagh2,785FoyleSDLPSDLP111,0195590493107701,764
Derry and StrabaneKilfennan2,972FoyleSDLPSDLP981,00041980025618121,883
Derry and StrabaneLisnagelvin2,466FoyleSDLPSDLP8586036770010348311,564
Derry and StrabaneMadam's Bank2,389FoyleSDLPSDLP99864349029381531,514
Derry and StrabaneNew Buildings2,782FoyleSDLPSDLP1019724388308452341,764
Derry and StrabaneNorthland2,947FoyleSDLPSDLP121,16458820368112731,869
Derry and StrabaneShantallow2,837FoyleSDLPSDLP111,0865490468103681,799
Derry and StrabaneShantallow East3,255FoyleSDLPSDLP121,33859470419114752,064
Derry and StrabaneSheriff's Mountain2,562FoyleSDLPSDLP10855489055292601,626
Derry and StrabaneSkeoge3,447FoyleSDLPSDLP131,37265430485125822,185
Derry and StrabaneSlievekirk1,778FoyleSDLPSDLP596192504809435231,128
Derry and StrabaneSpringtown2,508FoyleSDLPSDLP10922468045689581,589
Derry and StrabaneVictoria2,893FoyleSDLPSDLP5293822871046051331,833
Derry and StrabaneSlievekirk798Tyrone WestDUPDUP3012817361488012496
 Total72,202 SDLPSDLP1,01625,9834,5061,24449,7171,9851,31345,768

And these are the predicted results for the new seat of Foyle if there were an immediate general election. Please note that the wards used are those of 2021+ in order to be consistent with those used by the Boundary Commissions.


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