Regression Poll February 2022

This page first posted 25 February 2022

Pollster Find Out Now and election experts Electoral Calculus have run a MRP poll on voting intention for Westminster. This was a large-scale poll, involving over 12,500 respondents, carried out from 14-18 February.

The poll asked GB residents whether and how they intend to vote if there were an imminent general election.

The headline voting intention is shown in the highlighted column:

2019 Votes2019 SeatsBasic VIPredicted VotesPredicted SeatsChange

Footnote: the predicted vote share percentages differ slightly from the basic voting intention from the poll, as the regression techniques and models operate differently from classic polling analysis. This modifies the parties' vote shares slightly.

This gives an estimated Labour lead over the Conservatives of 6pc. That is a big gain for Labour since December, when they were one point behind the Conservatives. Overall it represents a swing of 9pc from Conservative to Labour since the last general election.

Voting Intention Change from GE 2019 to Feb 2022

The regression techniques of MRP polling allow predictions to be made for each individual seat in GB. The prediction is that the Conservatives would lose power and Labour would be the largest party in the House of Commons. Labour would be short of an overall majority, but could form a minority government with the support of either the SNP or a LibDem/Plaid three-way alliance. Keir Starmer would likely be Prime Minister.

Changes by Region

The Conservatives are predicted to lose seats particularly in the North West, East Midlands, Wales and Yorks/Humber with Labour as the main beneficiary.

The SNP are predicted to gain 11 seats in Scotland. This might be reduced if there is pro-Unionist tactical voting, which is not included in the MRP model.

Changes by MP

Some notable MPs are in danger of losing their seats:

Seats Predicted to Change Hands

See the appendix for the full list.


Chris Holbrook, CEO of Find Out Now: "This poll shows a marked improvement in the Conservative situation, perhaps showing a willingness to forgive, and if not, the healing power of a geopolitical crisis. The gap has waxed and waned of late, so it will be interesting to see what happens when Sue Gray and the Met release their full reports."

Martin Baxter, CEO of Electoral Calculus: "As Labour’s lead over the Conservatives has shrunk back from its partygate peak, the Conservatives will be wondering if they can recover more of their lost ground. The upcoming local elections may give a sign of whether the electorate is prepared to give their trust to the Conservatives again."

Technical Details

Find Out Now polled 12,700 GB adults online between 14-18 February 2022. The sample was weighted to be representative by gender, age, social grade, other demographics and past voting patterns. Regression techniques were used to infer projected seat results.

Find Out Now and Electoral Calculus are both members of the British Polling Council and abide by its rules.

The British Polling Council comments "All polls are subject to a wide range of potential sources of error. On the basis of the historical record of the polls at recent general elections, there is a 9 in 10 chance that the true value of a party's support lies within 4 points of the estimates provided by this poll, and a 2 in 3 chance that they lie within 2 points."

Full Tables (Excel spreadsheet)

Appendix: List of Seats Predicted to Change Hands

There are 127 seats which are predicted to change hands, relative to the election result of 2019. These are listed in the table below.

Seat NameCurrentPredictedMP as at 2019
Altrincham and Sale WestCONLABGraham Brady
AshfieldCONLABLee Anderson
Barrow and FurnessCONLABSimon Fell
Birmingham NorthfieldCONLABGary Sambrook
Bishop AucklandCONLABDehenna Davison
Blackpool North and CleveleysCONLABPaul Maynard
Blackpool SouthCONLABScott Benton
Blyth ValleyCONLABIan Levy
BolsoverCONLABMark Fletcher
Bolton North EastCONLABMark Logan
Bolton WestCONLABChris Green
Bournemouth EastCONLABTobias Ellwood
BroxtoweCONLABDarren Henry
BurnleyCONLABAntony Higginbotham
Bury NorthCONLABJames Daly
Bury SouthCONLABChristian Wakeford
Calder ValleyCONLABCraig Whittaker
Cambridgeshire SouthCONLIBAnthony Browne
CarlisleCONLABJohn Stevenson
Carshalton and WallingtonCONLIBElliot Colburn
Chelsea and FulhamCONLABGreg Hands
CheltenhamCONLIBAlex Chalk
Chingford and Woodford GreenCONLABIain Duncan Smith
Chipping BarnetCONLABTheresa Villiers
Cities of London and WestminsterCONLABNickie Aiken
ColchesterCONLABWill Quince
Colne ValleyCONLABJason McCartney
CopelandCONLABTrudy Harrison
CorbyCONLABTom Pursglove
CrawleyCONLABHenry Smith
Crewe and NantwichCONLABKieran Mullan
DarlingtonCONLABPeter Gibson
Derby NorthCONLABAmanda Solloway
DewsburyCONLABMark Eastwood
Don ValleyCONLABNick Fletcher
Durham North WestCONLABRichard Holden
EastbourneCONLIBCaroline Ansell
ErewashCONLABMaggie Throup
Esher and WaltonCONLIBDominic Raab
Filton and Bradley StokeCONLABJack Lopresti
Finchley and Golders GreenCONLABMike Freer
GedlingCONLABTom Randall
Great GrimsbyCONLABLia Nici
GuildfordCONLIBAngela Richardson
Harrow EastCONLABBob Blackman
Hastings and RyeCONLABSally-Ann Hart
HendonCONLABMatthew Offord
HexhamCONLABGuy Opperman
Heywood and MiddletonCONLABChris Clarkson
High PeakCONLABRobert Largan
HyndburnCONLABSara Britcliffe
IpswichCONLABTom Hunt
KeighleyCONLABRobbie Moore
KensingtonCONLABFelicity Buchan
LeighCONLABJames Grundy
LewesCONLIBMaria Caulfield
LincolnCONLABKarl McCartney
LoughboroughCONLABJane Hunt
MacclesfieldCONLABDavid Rutley
Milton Keynes NorthCONLABBen Everitt
Milton Keynes SouthCONLABIain Stewart
Morecambe and LunesdaleCONLABDavid Morris
Morley and OutwoodCONLABAndrea Jenkyns
Northampton NorthCONLABMichael Ellis
Northampton SouthCONLABAndrew Lewer
Norwich NorthCONLABChloe Smith
PendleCONLABAndrew Stephenson
Penistone and StocksbridgeCONLABMiriam Cates
PeterboroughCONLABPaul Bristow
PudseyCONLABStuart Andrew
Reading WestCONLABAlok Sharma
RedcarCONLABJacob Young
Ribble SouthCONLABKatherine Fletcher
Rossendale and DarwenCONLABJake Berry
Rother ValleyCONLABAlexander Stafford
RushcliffeCONLABRuth Edwards
Scarborough and WhitbyCONLABRobert Goodwill
ScunthorpeCONLABHolly Mumby-Croft
SedgefieldCONLABPaul Howell
ShipleyCONLABPhilip Davies
Southampton ItchenCONLABRoyston Smith
SouthportCONLABDamien Moore
St IvesCONLIBDerek Thomas
StevenageCONLABStephen McPartland
Stockton SouthCONLABMatt Vickers
Stoke-on-Trent CentralCONLABJo Gideon
StroudCONLABSiobhan Baillie
Swindon SouthCONLABRobert Buckland
Truro and FalmouthCONLABCherilyn Mackrory
Uxbridge and South RuislipCONLABBoris Johnson
WakefieldCONLABImran Ahmad-Khan
Warrington SouthCONLABAndy Carter
WatfordCONLABDean Russell
West Bromwich EastCONLABNicola Richards
West Bromwich WestCONLABShaun Bailey
WimbledonCONLABStephen Hammond
WinchesterCONLIBSteve Brine
Wolverhampton North EastCONLABJane Stevenson
Wolverhampton South WestCONLABStuart Anderson
WorcesterCONLABRobin Walker
WorkingtonCONLABMark Jenkinson
Worthing East and ShorehamCONLABTim Loughton
WycombeCONLABSteve Baker
York OuterCONLABJulian Sturdy
AberconwyCONLABRobin Millar
BridgendCONLABJamie Wallis
Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire SouthCONLABSimon Hart
Clwyd SouthCONLABSimon Baynes
Clwyd WestCONLABDavid Jones
DelynCONLABRob Roberts
MonmouthCONLABDavid Davies
Preseli PembrokeshireCONLABStephen Crabb
Vale of ClwydCONLABJames Davies
Vale of GlamorganCONLABAlun Cairns
WrexhamCONLABSarah Atherton
Ynys MonCONPlaidVirginia Crosbie
Aberdeenshire West and KincardineCONSNPAndrew Bowie
Banff and BuchanCONSNPDavid Duguid
Berwickshire, Roxburgh and SelkirkCONSNPJohn Lamont
Caithness Sutherland and Easter RossLIBSNPJamie Stone
Dumfries and GallowayCONSNPAlister Jack
Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and TweeddaleCONSNPDavid Mundell
Edinburgh SouthLABSNPIan Murray
Edinburgh WestLIBSNPChristine Jardine
Fife North EastLIBSNPWendy Chamberlain
MorayCONSNPDouglas Ross
Orkney and ShetlandLIBSNPAlistair Carmichael