Regression Poll September 2022

This page first posted 28 September 2022

Pollster Find Out Now and election experts Electoral Calculus have run a MRP poll on voting intention for Westminster. This was a large-scale poll, involving over 10,400 respondents, carried out from 23-27 September.

The poll asked GB residents whether and how they intend to vote if there were an imminent general election.

The headline voting intention is shown in the highlighted column:

Footnote: the predicted vote share percentages differ slightly from the basic voting intention from the poll, as the regression techniques and models operate differently from classic polling analysis. This modifies the parties' vote shares slightly.

This gives an estimated Labour lead over the Conservatives of 16pc. That is a big gain for Labour since February, when Labour were only 6pc ahead. It represents an overall swing of 15pc from Conservative to Labour since the last general election.

The regression techniques of MRP polling allow predictions to be made for each individual seat in GB. The prediction is that the Conservatives would be swept from power and Labour would have a landslide majority of 112 seats in the House of Commons. Keir Starmer would be Prime Minister without needing to depend on support from the SNP or the Liberal Democrats.

Reaction to the mini-budget

We also asked people "What did you think of the mini-budget on Friday which made unfunded tax cuts to try to boost growth?". Most people though the mini-budget was bad or very bad. Responses are shown in the table below.

Table: Excludes those who refused to say

Overall, 34% of people though the mini-budget was bad or very bad, 52% of people were neutral or weren't sure, and 14% of people thought it was good or very good. Those saying bad out-numbered those who thought it was good by 20%.

Among Conservative voters there was more support for the mini-budget than opposition, though most Conservative voters weren't sure either way. Labour voters were strongly opposed.

Predicted seat changes by MP

Some notable MPs are in danger of losing their seats, including eight cabinet ministers:

• Simon Clarke (Middlesbrough South and Cleveland East), Levelling Up
• Jacob Rees-Mogg (Somerset North East), Business
• Alok Sharma (Reading West), Minister of State COP26
• Chloe Smith (Norwich North), Work and Pensions
• Alister Jack (Dumfries and Galloway), Scottish Secretary
• Robert Buckland (Swindon South), Welsh Secretary
• Penny Mordaunt (Portsmouth North), Leader of the House
• Jake Berry (Rossendale and Darwen), Party Chairman

Also Boris Johnson (former Prime Minister), Iain Duncan Smith (former party leader), Liam Fox (former cabinet minister), and Grant Shapps (former cabinet minister) are all set to lose their seats as well.

See the appendix for the full list.

Quotes

Chris Holbrook, CEO of Find Out Now: "Truss and Kwarteng's apparent gamble for growth seems to have alienated another swathe of Tory voters, while Sir Keir's policy of being "boring" quietly amasses a potential majority."

Martin Baxter, CEO of Electoral Calculus: "Our new poll confirms that Liz Truss' government has got off to a dreadful start with the British public. The Conservatives won in 2019 partly because Boris Johnson was an electoral asset and Jeremy Corbyn was an electoral liability. That's all changed, and not to the Conservatives' advantage. On top of that, the mini-budget, with its unfunded tax cuts, has not been any more popular with voters than it has been with the financial markets.

Technical Details

Find Out Now polled 10,435 GB adults online between 23-27 September 2022. The sample was weighted to be representative by gender, age, social grade, other demographics and past voting patterns. Regression techniques were used to infer projected seat results.

Find Out Now and Electoral Calculus are both members of the British Polling Council and abide by its rules.

The British Polling Council comments "All polls are subject to a wide range of potential sources of error. On the basis of the historical record of the polls at recent general elections, there is a 9 in 10 chance that the true value of a party's support lies within 4 points of the estimates provided by this poll, and a 2 in 3 chance that they lie within 2 points."

Full Tables (Excel spreadsheet)

Appendix: List of Seats Predicted to Change Hands

There are 193 seats which are predicted to change hands, relative to the election result of 2019. These are listed in the table below.