Regression Poll September 2022

This page first posted 28 September 2022

Pollster Find Out Now and election experts Electoral Calculus have run a MRP poll on voting intention for Westminster. This was a large-scale poll, involving over 10,400 respondents, carried out from 23-27 September.

The poll asked GB residents whether and how they intend to vote if there were an imminent general election.

The headline voting intention is shown in the highlighted column:

2019 Votes2019 SeatsBasic VIPredicted VotesPredicted SeatsChange

Footnote: the predicted vote share percentages differ slightly from the basic voting intention from the poll, as the regression techniques and models operate differently from classic polling analysis. This modifies the parties' vote shares slightly.

This gives an estimated Labour lead over the Conservatives of 16pc. That is a big gain for Labour since February, when Labour were only 6pc ahead. It represents an overall swing of 15pc from Conservative to Labour since the last general election.

Voting Intention Change from GE 2019 to Sep 2022

The regression techniques of MRP polling allow predictions to be made for each individual seat in GB. The prediction is that the Conservatives would be swept from power and Labour would have a landslide majority of 112 seats in the House of Commons. Keir Starmer would be Prime Minister without needing to depend on support from the SNP or the Liberal Democrats.

Reaction to the mini-budget

We also asked people "What did you think of the mini-budget on Friday which made unfunded tax cuts to try to boost growth?". Most people though the mini-budget was bad or very bad. Responses are shown in the table below.

ResponseAll votersCON voters
in 2019
LAB voters
in 2019
Bad / Very bad34%20%54%
Neutral / don't know52%53%40%
Good / Very good14%27%6%
Net Good minus Bad−20%+7%−48%

Table: Excludes those who refused to say

Overall, 34% of people though the mini-budget was bad or very bad, 52% of people were neutral or weren't sure, and 14% of people thought it was good or very good. Those saying bad out-numbered those who thought it was good by 20%.

Among Conservative voters there was more support for the mini-budget than opposition, though most Conservative voters weren't sure either way. Labour voters were strongly opposed.

Predicted seat changes by MP

Some notable MPs are in danger of losing their seats, including eight cabinet ministers:

Also Boris Johnson (former Prime Minister), Iain Duncan Smith (former party leader), Liam Fox (former cabinet minister), and Grant Shapps (former cabinet minister) are all set to lose their seats as well.

See the appendix for the full list.


Chris Holbrook, CEO of Find Out Now: "Truss and Kwarteng's apparent gamble for growth seems to have alienated another swathe of Tory voters, while Sir Keir's policy of being "boring" quietly amasses a potential majority."

Martin Baxter, CEO of Electoral Calculus: "Our new poll confirms that Liz Truss' government has got off to a dreadful start with the British public. The Conservatives won in 2019 partly because Boris Johnson was an electoral asset and Jeremy Corbyn was an electoral liability. That's all changed, and not to the Conservatives' advantage. On top of that, the mini-budget, with its unfunded tax cuts, has not been any more popular with voters than it has been with the financial markets.

"One glimmer of hope for the Conservatives is that Ed Miliband enjoyed a similar large poll lead and predicted majority back in 2013 without managing to win the subsequent general election, but there can be no guarantees that history will repeat itself again exactly."

Technical Details

Find Out Now polled 10,435 GB adults online between 23-27 September 2022. The sample was weighted to be representative by gender, age, social grade, other demographics and past voting patterns. Regression techniques were used to infer projected seat results.

Find Out Now and Electoral Calculus are both members of the British Polling Council and abide by its rules.

The British Polling Council comments "All polls are subject to a wide range of potential sources of error. On the basis of the historical record of the polls at recent general elections, there is a 9 in 10 chance that the true value of a party's support lies within 4 points of the estimates provided by this poll, and a 2 in 3 chance that they lie within 2 points."

Full Tables (Excel spreadsheet)

Appendix: List of Seats Predicted to Change Hands

There are 193 seats which are predicted to change hands, relative to the election result of 2019. These are listed in the table below.

Seat NameCurrentPredictedMP as at 2019
AldershotCONLABLeo Docherty
Altrincham and Sale WestCONLABGraham Brady
Amber ValleyCONLABNigel Mills
AshfieldCONLABLee Anderson
AylesburyCONLABRob Butler
BanburyCONLABVictoria Prentis
Barrow and FurnessCONLABSimon Fell
BasingstokeCONLABMaria Miller
BassetlawCONLABBrendan Clarke-Smith
BeckenhamCONLABBob Stewart
Bedfordshire South WestCONLABAndrew Selous
Bexleyheath and CrayfordCONLABDavid Evennett
Birmingham NorthfieldCONLABGary Sambrook
Bishop AucklandCONLABDehenna Davison
Blackpool North and CleveleysCONLABPaul Maynard
Blackpool SouthCONLABScott Benton
Blyth ValleyCONLABIan Levy
BolsoverCONLABMark Fletcher
Bolton North EastCONLABMark Logan
Bolton WestCONLABChris Green
Bournemouth EastCONLABTobias Ellwood
Bournemouth WestCONLABConor Burns
Bromley and ChislehurstCONLABBob Neill
BroxtoweCONLABDarren Henry
BurnleyCONLABAntony Higginbotham
BurtonCONLABKate Griffiths
Bury NorthCONLABJames Daly
Bury SouthCONLABChristian Wakeford
Calder ValleyCONLABCraig Whittaker
Camborne and RedruthCONLABGeorge Eustice
Cambridgeshire SouthCONLIBAnthony Browne
CarlisleCONLABJohn Stevenson
Carshalton and WallingtonCONLIBElliot Colburn
CheadleCONLIBMary Robinson
Chelsea and FulhamCONLABGreg Hands
CheltenhamCONLIBAlex Chalk
Chingford and Woodford GreenCONLABIain Duncan Smith
Chipping BarnetCONLABTheresa Villiers
Cities of London and WestminsterCONLABNickie Aiken
ColchesterCONLABWill Quince
Colne ValleyCONLABJason McCartney
CopelandCONLABTrudy Harrison
CorbyCONLABTom Pursglove
CrawleyCONLABHenry Smith
Crewe and NantwichCONLABKieran Mullan
Croydon SouthCONLABChris Philp
DarlingtonCONLABPeter Gibson
DartfordCONLABGareth Johnson
Derby NorthCONLABAmanda Solloway
Derbyshire MidCONLABPauline Latham
Derbyshire North EastCONLABLee Rowley
Devon CentralCONLABMel Stride
DewsburyCONLABMark Eastwood
Don ValleyCONLABNick Fletcher
Dorset SouthCONLABRichard Drax
DoverCONLABNatalie Elphicke
Dudley NorthCONLABMarco Longhi
Durham North WestCONLABRichard Holden
EastbourneCONLIBCaroline Ansell
Elmet and RothwellCONLABAlec Shelbrooke
ErewashCONLABMaggie Throup
Esher and WaltonCONLIBDominic Raab
Filton and Bradley StokeCONLABJack Lopresti
Finchley and Golders GreenCONLABMike Freer
Forest of DeanCONLABMark Harper
GedlingCONLABTom Randall
Gillingham and RainhamCONLABRehman Chishti
GloucesterCONLABRichard Graham
GraveshamCONLABAdam Holloway
Great GrimsbyCONLABLia Nici
GuildfordCONLIBAngela Richardson
Halesowen and Rowley RegisCONLABJames Morris
HarboroughCONLABNeil O'Brien
HarlowCONLABRobert Halfon
Harrow EastCONLABBob Blackman
Hastings and RyeCONLABSally-Ann Hart
Hemel HempsteadCONLABMike Penning
HendonCONLABMatthew Offord
Hertford and StortfordCONLABJulie Marson
Hertfordshire North EastCONLABOliver Heald
HexhamCONLABGuy Opperman
Heywood and MiddletonCONLABChris Clarkson
High PeakCONLABRobert Largan
Hitchin and HarpendenCONLABBim Afolami
HuntingdonCONLABJonathan Djanogly
HyndburnCONLABSara Britcliffe
IpswichCONLABTom Hunt
Isle of WightCONLABBob Seely
KeighleyCONLABRobbie Moore
KensingtonCONLABFelicity Buchan
KetteringCONLABPhilip Hollobone
KingswoodCONLABChris Skidmore
LeighCONLABJames Grundy
LewesCONLIBMaria Caulfield
LincolnCONLABKarl McCartney
LoughboroughCONLABJane Hunt
MacclesfieldCONLABDavid Rutley
MansfieldCONLABBen Bradley
Middlesbrough South and Cleveland EastCONLABSimon Clarke
Milton Keynes NorthCONLABBen Everitt
Milton Keynes SouthCONLABIain Stewart
Morecambe and LunesdaleCONLABDavid Morris
Morley and OutwoodCONLABAndrea Jenkyns
Newcastle-under-LymeCONLABAaron Bell
Northampton NorthCONLABMichael Ellis
Northampton SouthCONLABAndrew Lewer
Norwich NorthCONLABChloe Smith
NuneatonCONLABMarcus Jones
PendleCONLABAndrew Stephenson
Penistone and StocksbridgeCONLABMiriam Cates
PeterboroughCONLABPaul Bristow
Plymouth Moor ViewCONLABJohnny Mercer
Portsmouth NorthCONLABPenny Mordaunt
PudseyCONLABStuart Andrew
Reading WestCONLABAlok Sharma
RedcarCONLABJacob Young
RedditchCONLABRachel Maclean
Ribble SouthCONLABKatherine Fletcher
Rochester and StroodCONLABKelly Tolhurst
Rochford and Southend EastCONLABJames Duddridge
Rossendale and DarwenCONLABJake Berry
Rother ValleyCONLABAlexander Stafford
RugbyCONLABMark Pawsey
Ruislip, Northwood and PinnerCONLABDavid Simmonds
RushcliffeCONLABRuth Edwards
Scarborough and WhitbyCONLABRobert Goodwill
ScunthorpeCONLABHolly Mumby-Croft
SedgefieldCONLABPaul Howell
SherwoodCONLABMark Spencer
ShipleyCONLABPhilip Davies
Shrewsbury and AtchamCONLABDaniel Kawczynski
Somerset NorthCONLABLiam Fox
Somerset North EastCONLABJacob Rees-Mogg
Southampton ItchenCONLABRoyston Smith
Southend WestCONLABDavid Amess
SouthportCONLABDamien Moore
St Austell and NewquayCONLABSteve Double
St IvesCONLIBDerek Thomas
StaffordCONLABTheo Clarke
StevenageCONLABStephen McPartland
Stockton SouthCONLABMatt Vickers
Stoke-on-Trent CentralCONLABJo Gideon
Stoke-on-Trent NorthCONLABJonathan Gullis
Stoke-on-Trent SouthCONLABJack Brereton
StourbridgeCONLABSuzanne Webb
StroudCONLABSiobhan Baillie
Swindon NorthCONLABJustin Tomlinson
Swindon SouthCONLABRobert Buckland
TelfordCONLABLucy Allan
Thanet SouthCONLABCraig Mackinlay
ThurrockCONLABJackie Doyle-Price
Truro and FalmouthCONLABCherilyn Mackrory
Uxbridge and South RuislipCONLABBoris Johnson
WakefieldCONLABImran Ahmad-Khan
Walsall NorthCONLABEddie Hughes
Warrington SouthCONLABAndy Carter
Warwickshire NorthCONLABCraig Tracey
WatfordCONLABDean Russell
WaveneyCONLABPeter Aldous
WellingboroughCONLABPeter Bone
WellsCONLIBJames Heappey
Welwyn HatfieldCONLABGrant Shapps
West Bromwich EastCONLABNicola Richards
West Bromwich WestCONLABShaun Bailey
Weston-Super-MareCONLABJohn Penrose
WimbledonCONLABStephen Hammond
WinchesterCONLIBSteve Brine
WokingCONLABJonathan Lord
Wolverhampton North EastCONLABJane Stevenson
Wolverhampton South WestCONLABStuart Anderson
WorcesterCONLABRobin Walker
WorkingtonCONLABMark Jenkinson
Worthing East and ShorehamCONLABTim Loughton
Worthing WestCONLABPeter Bottomley
WycombeCONLABSteve Baker
York OuterCONLABJulian Sturdy
AberconwyCONLABRobin Millar
BridgendCONLABJamie Wallis
Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire SouthCONLABSimon Hart
Clwyd SouthCONLABSimon Baynes
Clwyd WestCONLABDavid Jones
DelynCONLABRob Roberts
MonmouthCONLABDavid Davies
Preseli PembrokeshireCONLABStephen Crabb
Vale of ClwydCONLABJames Davies
Vale of GlamorganCONLABAlun Cairns
WrexhamCONLABSarah Atherton
Ynys MonCONLABVirginia Crosbie
Aberdeenshire West and KincardineCONSNPAndrew Bowie
Caithness Sutherland and Easter RossLIBSNPJamie Stone
Dumfries and GallowayCONSNPAlister Jack
Kirkcaldy and CowdenbeathSNPLABNeale Hanvey
MorayCONSNPDouglas Ross