Regression Poll August 2023

This page first posted 9 August 2023

Pollster Find Out Now and election experts Electoral Calculus have run a MRP poll for Channel 4 News on voting intention for Westminster. This was a large-scale poll, involving over 11,000 respondents, carried out from 31 July – 4 August.

The poll asked GB residents whether and how they intend to vote if there were an imminent general election.

The headline voting intention is shown in the highlighted column:
PartyVote share at GE 2019Previous poll Sep 2022Previous poll Feb 2023Current Estimated Vote Share (pc)Estimated Change (pc)

Footnote: the predicted vote share percentages differ from the basic voting intention from the poll, as the regression techniques and models operate differently from classic polling analysis. This modifies the parties' vote shares slightly. See below for analysis of don't knows and refuseds.

This gives an estimated Labour lead over the Conservatives of 22pc. That is very significant lead, which would lead to a Labour landslide in a general election.

The regression techniques of MRP polling allow predictions to be made for each individual seat in GB. The number of seats predicted to be won by each party is shown in the next table.

PartyNumber of Seats
at GE 2019
Number of Seats

The prediction is that the Conservatives would lose about three-quarters of the existing seats and be reduced to fewer than one hundred MPs. The SNP and the Liberal Democrats would be in a tight battle for third place in Westminster.

Conservative losses worse in stronger seats

One reason that the Conservatives are doing so badly, is that the poll shows that Conservative losses are worse in stronger seats.

To show this, we looked at voting intention of those voters who lived in either very strong or quite strong Conservative seats (see Technical Details below for these definitions). There were around 1,800 respondents in each of these smaller groups.

Con vote share at GE 2019Current Con vote share from pollAdditive changeMultiplicative change
All GB seats45%24%−21%−47%
Quite Strong Conservative seats57%30%−27%−47%
Very Strong Conservative seats64%37%−27%−42%

Across the whole country, the Conservatives are predicted to lose 21% support, as they decline from 45% at the last general election to 24% today. But in quite strong seats, they lose 27% which is more than the national average. And it's the same figure for very strong seats. The Conservative losses are worse in their stronger seats, which helps explain why they are predicted to lose so many seats.

Another way of seeing this is to look at the multiplicative change, which is the fraction of former Conservative voters who are deserting the party. (For example, nationally that fraction is 22%/45% which is 47%). That's the same figure for the quite strong seats, but a bit lower for the very strong seats.

That could be even worse for the Conservatives than 1997. Even in Tony Blair's Labour landslide, Conservative support held up better in their stronger seats.

Predicted seat changes by MP

Some notable MPs are in danger of losing their seats, including the Prime Minister and seventeen other cabinet ministers:


Chris Holbrook, CEO of Find Out Now: "Our poll of 11,142 GB adults demonstrates the scale of the swing from Conservative to Labour, showing the likelihood of a Labour landslide. This swing should not overshadow the apparent re-establishment of the Liberal Democrats as a credible third party after nearly a decade in the political wilderness."

Martin Baxter, CEO of Electoral Calculus: "With every month that goes by, Labour are edging towards a grudging landslide victory at the next general election. Without overmuch enthusiasm, the public look likely to reject the Conservatives and are mostly embracing Labour."

Technical Details

Find Out Now polled 11,142 GB adults online between 31 July – 4 August 2023. Of those 10,599 answered all the demographic questions, and 8,783 had a definite voting intention. The sample was weighted to be representative by gender, age, social grade, other demographics and past voting patterns. Regression techniques were used to infer projected seat results.

The "Very strong" Conservative seats were defined as the top 120 seats by Conservative vote share at the last general election. The sample size of this sub-group was 1,891. The "Quite strong" Conservative seats were defined as the next 120 seats ranked by Conservative vote share at the last general election. The sample size of this sub-group was 1,879. Find Out Now and Electoral Calculus are both members of the British Polling Council and abide by its rules.

Full Data Tables are available for download as an Excel spreadsheet.

Treatment of Don't Knows and Refuseds

We continue to use the "late quota" method for analysing the poll using classic polling weights. See May 2023 poll for details. Currently this effect is smaller than it was, and the lead between the two parties is the same over the two methods.

Electoral Calculus

Electoral Calculus is a political consultancy specialising in quantitative analysis and modelling for electoral and other market research projects. Its pre-poll prediction for the 2019 general election was the most accurate published forecast. It was founded by Martin Baxter, its CEO.

Electoral Calculus is a member of the British Polling Council.

Find Out Now

Find Out Now gathers poll responses from Pick My Postcode, a daily panel from 2.8 million members. Highly profiled respondents can be targeted instantly, and at scale to deliver reliable results fast.

More than 124 million responses have been received to Find Out Now's polls since it launched in November 2018. Find Out Now are Market Research Society Company Partners and a member of the British Polling Council.

Regression Polling

Modern polling analysis often uses statistical regression techniques to get more accurate and geographically detailed results. Also called MRP (multi-level regression and post stratification) they have been used successfully by Electoral Calculus and other pollsters to predict general elections, local elections and the 2019 European elections.

These techniques work by spotting patterns between people's demographic characteristics and their likelihood to vote for various parties.

Appendix : List of vulnerable seats

The following seats are predicted to change hands according to our poll.

Seat NameWinner 2019Pred WinnerMP as at 2019
AldershotCONLABLeo Docherty
Altrincham and Sale WestCONLABGraham Brady
Amber ValleyCONLABNigel Mills
AshfieldCONLABLee Anderson
AshfordCONLABDamian Green
AylesburyCONLABRob Butler
BanburyCONLABVictoria Prentis
Barrow and FurnessCONLABSimon Fell
Basildon South and East ThurrockCONLABStephen Metcalfe
BasingstokeCONLABMaria Miller
BassetlawCONLABBrendan Clarke-Smith
BeckenhamCONLABBob Stewart
Bedfordshire MidCONLABNadine Dorries
Bedfordshire North EastCONLABRichard Fuller
Bedfordshire South WestCONLABAndrew Selous
Berwick-upon-TweedCONLABAnne-Marie Trevelyan
Beverley and HoldernessCONLABGraham Stuart
Bexleyheath and CrayfordCONLABDavid Evennett
Birmingham NorthfieldCONLABGary Sambrook
Bishop AucklandCONLABDehenna Davison
Blackpool North and CleveleysCONLABPaul Maynard
Blackpool SouthCONLABScott Benton
Blyth ValleyCONLABIan Levy
BolsoverCONLABMark Fletcher
Bolton North EastCONLABMark Logan
Bolton WestCONLABChris Green
BosworthCONLABLuke Evans
Bournemouth EastCONLABTobias Ellwood
Bournemouth WestCONLABConor Burns
BracknellCONLABJames Sunderland
Brigg and GooleCONLABAndrew Percy
BroadlandCONLABJerome Mayhew
Bromley and ChislehurstCONLABBob Neill
BroxbourneCONLABCharles Walker
BroxtoweCONLABDarren Henry
BurnleyCONLABAntony Higginbotham
BurtonCONLABKate Griffiths
Bury NorthCONLABJames Daly
Bury SouthCONLABChristian Wakeford
Bury St EdmundsCONLABJo Churchill
Calder ValleyCONLABCraig Whittaker
Camborne and RedruthCONLABGeorge Eustice
Cambridgeshire North WestCONLABShailesh Vara
Cambridgeshire SouthCONLIBAnthony Browne
Cambridgeshire South EastCONLABLucy Frazer
Cannock ChaseCONLABAmanda Milling
CarlisleCONLABJohn Stevenson
Carshalton and WallingtonCONLIBElliot Colburn
CharnwoodCONLABEdward Argar
Chatham and AylesfordCONLABTracey Crouch
CheadleCONLIBMary Robinson
ChelmsfordCONLABVicky Ford
Chelsea and FulhamCONLABGreg Hands
CheltenhamCONLIBAlex Chalk
Chesham and AmershamCONLIBCheryl Gillan
Chingford and Woodford GreenCONLABIain Duncan Smith
ChippenhamCONLIBMichelle Donelan
Chipping BarnetCONLABTheresa Villiers
Cities of London and WestminsterCONLABNickie Aiken
CleethorpesCONLABMartin Vickers
ColchesterCONLABWill Quince
Colne ValleyCONLABJason McCartney
CongletonCONLABFiona Bruce
CopelandCONLABTrudy Harrison
CorbyCONLABTom Pursglove
Cornwall NorthCONLIBScott Mann
CrawleyCONLABHenry Smith
Crewe and NantwichCONLABKieran Mullan
Croydon SouthCONLABChris Philp
DarlingtonCONLABPeter Gibson
DartfordCONLABGareth Johnson
DaventryCONLABChris Heaton-Harris
Derby NorthCONLABAmanda Solloway
Derbyshire DalesCONLABSarah Dines
Derbyshire MidCONLABPauline Latham
Derbyshire North EastCONLABLee Rowley
Derbyshire SouthCONLABHeather Wheeler
Devon CentralCONLABMel Stride
Devon EastCONMINSimon Jupp
Devon NorthCONLIBSelaine Saxby
DewsburyCONLABMark Eastwood
Don ValleyCONLABNick Fletcher
Dorset SouthCONLABRichard Drax
Dorset WestCONLIBChris Loder
DoverCONLABNatalie Elphicke
Dudley NorthCONLABMarco Longhi
Dudley SouthCONLABMike Wood
Durham North WestCONLABRichard Holden
EastbourneCONLIBCaroline Ansell
EastleighCONLIBPaul Holmes
EddisburyCONLABEdward Timpson
Elmet and RothwellCONLABAlec Shelbrooke
ErewashCONLABMaggie Throup
Esher and WaltonCONLIBDominic Raab
Filton and Bradley StokeCONLABJack Lopresti
Finchley and Golders GreenCONLABMike Freer
Folkestone and HytheCONLABDamian Collins
Forest of DeanCONLABMark Harper
FyldeCONLABMark Menzies
GainsboroughCONLABEdward Leigh
GedlingCONLABTom Randall
Gillingham and RainhamCONLABRehman Chishti
GloucesterCONLABRichard Graham
Grantham and StamfordCONLABGareth Davies
GraveshamCONLABAdam Holloway
Great GrimsbyCONLABLia Nici
Great YarmouthCONLABBrandon Lewis
GuildfordCONLIBAngela Richardson
Halesowen and Rowley RegisCONLABJames Morris
Haltemprice and HowdenCONLABDavid Davis
HarboroughCONLABNeil O'Brien
HarlowCONLABRobert Halfon
Harrow EastCONLABBob Blackman
Harwich and North EssexCONLABBernard Jenkin
Hastings and RyeCONLABSally-Ann Hart
Hazel GroveCONLIBWilliam Wragg
Hemel HempsteadCONLABMike Penning
HendonCONLABMatthew Offord
Hereford and South HerefordshireCONLABJesse Norman
Hertford and StortfordCONLABJulie Marson
Hertfordshire North EastCONLABOliver Heald
HertsmereCONLABOliver Dowden
HexhamCONLABGuy Opperman
Heywood and MiddletonCONLABChris Clarkson
High PeakCONLABRobert Largan
Hitchin and HarpendenCONLABBim Afolami
HuntingdonCONLABJonathan Djanogly
HyndburnCONLABSara Britcliffe
IpswichCONLABTom Hunt
Isle of WightCONLABBob Seely
KeighleyCONLABRobbie Moore
KensingtonCONLABFelicity Buchan
KetteringCONLABPhilip Hollobone
KingswoodCONLABChris Skidmore
Leicestershire North WestCONLABAndrew Bridgen
Leicestershire SouthCONLABAlberto Costa
LeighCONLABJames Grundy
LewesCONLIBMaria Caulfield
LincolnCONLABKarl McCartney
LoughboroughCONLABJane Hunt
MacclesfieldCONLABDavid Rutley
MansfieldCONLABBen Bradley
MeridenCONLABSaqib Bhatti
Middlesbrough South and Cleveland EastCONLABSimon Clarke
Milton Keynes NorthCONLABBen Everitt
Milton Keynes SouthCONLABIain Stewart
Morecambe and LunesdaleCONLABDavid Morris
Morley and OutwoodCONLABAndrea Jenkyns
NewarkCONLABRobert Jenrick
Newcastle-under-LymeCONLABAaron Bell
Norfolk MidCONLABGeorge Freeman
Norfolk NorthCONLIBDuncan Baker
Norfolk SouthCONLABRichard Bacon
Northampton NorthCONLABMichael Ellis
Northampton SouthCONLABAndrew Lewer
Northamptonshire SouthCONLABAndrea Leadsom
Norwich NorthCONLABChloe Smith
NuneatonCONLABMarcus Jones
PendleCONLABAndrew Stephenson
Penistone and StocksbridgeCONLABMiriam Cates
Penrith and The BorderCONLABNeil Hudson
PeterboroughCONLABPaul Bristow
Plymouth Moor ViewCONLABJohnny Mercer
PooleCONLABRobert Syms
Portsmouth NorthCONLABPenny Mordaunt
PudseyCONLABStuart Andrew
Reading WestCONLABAlok Sharma
RedcarCONLABJacob Young
RedditchCONLABRachel Maclean
ReigateCONLABCrispin Blunt
Ribble SouthCONLABKatherine Fletcher
Ribble ValleyCONLABNigel Evans
RichmondCONLABRishi Sunak
Rochester and StroodCONLABKelly Tolhurst
Rochford and Southend EastCONLABJames Duddridge
RomfordCONLABAndrew Rosindell
Rossendale and DarwenCONLABJake Berry
Rother ValleyCONLABAlexander Stafford
RugbyCONLABMark Pawsey
Ruislip, Northwood and PinnerCONLABDavid Simmonds
Runnymede and WeybridgeCONLABBen Spencer
RushcliffeCONLABRuth Edwards
Rutland and MeltonCONLABAlicia Kearns
SalisburyCONLABJohn Glen
Scarborough and WhitbyCONLABRobert Goodwill
ScunthorpeCONLABHolly Mumby-Croft
SedgefieldCONLABPaul Howell
Selby and AinstyCONLABNigel Adams
SherwoodCONLABMark Spencer
ShipleyCONLABPhilip Davies
Shrewsbury and AtchamCONLABDaniel Kawczynski
Sittingbourne and SheppeyCONLABGordon Henderson
Skipton and RiponCONLABJulian Smith
Sleaford and North HykehamCONLABCaroline Johnson
Somerset NorthCONLABLiam Fox
Somerset North EastCONLABJacob Rees-Mogg
Somerton and FromeCONLIBDavid Warburton
Southampton ItchenCONLABRoyston Smith
SouthportCONLABDamien Moore
SpelthorneCONLABKwasi Kwarteng
St Austell and NewquayCONLABSteve Double
St IvesCONLIBDerek Thomas
StaffordCONLABTheo Clarke
Staffordshire MoorlandsCONLABKaren Bradley
StevenageCONLABStephen McPartland
Stockton SouthCONLABMatt Vickers
Stoke-on-Trent CentralCONLABJo Gideon
Stoke-on-Trent NorthCONLABJonathan Gullis
Stoke-on-Trent SouthCONLABJack Brereton
StourbridgeCONLABSuzanne Webb
StroudCONLABSiobhan Baillie
Suffolk Central and Ipswich NorthCONLABDan Poulter
Suffolk CoastalCONLABTherese Coffey
Suffolk WestCONLABMatt Hancock
Sussex MidCONLABMims Davies
Sutton and CheamCONLIBPaul Scully
Sutton ColdfieldCONLABAndrew Mitchell
Swindon NorthCONLABJustin Tomlinson
Swindon SouthCONLABRobert Buckland
TamworthCONLABChristopher Pincher
TattonCONLABEsther McVey
Taunton DeaneCONLIBRebecca Pow
TelfordCONLABLucy Allan
Thanet NorthCONLABRoger Gale
Thanet SouthCONLABCraig Mackinlay
Thirsk and MaltonCONLABKevin Hollinrake
Thornbury and YateCONLIBLuke Hall
ThurrockCONLABJackie Doyle-Price
Truro and FalmouthCONLABCherilyn Mackrory
Uxbridge and South RuislipCONLABBoris Johnson
WakefieldCONLABImran Ahmad-Khan
Walsall NorthCONLABEddie Hughes
WantageCONLABDavid Johnston
Warrington SouthCONLABAndy Carter
Warwickshire NorthCONLABCraig Tracey
WatfordCONLABDean Russell
WaveneyCONLABPeter Aldous
WellingboroughCONLABPeter Bone
WellsCONLIBJames Heappey
Welwyn HatfieldCONLABGrant Shapps
West Bromwich EastCONLABNicola Richards
West Bromwich WestCONLABShaun Bailey
Weston-Super-MareCONLABJohn Penrose
Wiltshire South WestCONLABAndrew Murrison
WimbledonCONLABStephen Hammond
WinchesterCONLIBSteve Brine
WokingCONLABJonathan Lord
WokinghamCONLIBJohn Redwood
Wolverhampton North EastCONLABJane Stevenson
Wolverhampton South WestCONLABStuart Anderson
WorcesterCONLABRobin Walker
WorkingtonCONLABMark Jenkinson
Worthing East and ShorehamCONLABTim Loughton
Worthing WestCONLABPeter Bottomley
Wrekin, TheCONLABMark Pritchard
WycombeCONLABSteve Baker
Wyre and Preston NorthCONLABBen Wallace
Wyre ForestCONLABMark Garnier
YeovilCONLIBMarcus Fysh
York OuterCONLABJulian Sturdy
Yorkshire EastCONLABGreg Knight
AberconwyCONLABRobin Millar
BridgendCONLABJamie Wallis
Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire SouthCONLABSimon Hart
Clwyd SouthCONLABSimon Baynes
Clwyd WestCONLABDavid Jones
DelynCONLABRob Roberts
MonmouthCONLABDavid Davies
Preseli PembrokeshireCONLABStephen Crabb
Vale of ClwydCONLABJames Davies
Vale of GlamorganCONLABAlun Cairns
WrexhamCONLABSarah Atherton
Ynys MonCONLABVirginia Crosbie
Aberdeenshire West and KincardineCONSNPAndrew Bowie
Coatbridge, Chryston and BellshillSNPLABSteven Bonnar
Dumfries and GallowayCONSNPAlister Jack
Dunbartonshire EastSNPLIBAmy Callaghan
East LothianSNPLABKenny MacAskill
Glasgow CentralSNPLABAlison Thewliss
Glasgow EastSNPLABDavid Linden
Glasgow NorthSNPLABPatrick Grady
Glasgow North EastSNPLABAnne McLaughlin
Glasgow South WestSNPLABChris Stephens
Kirkcaldy and CowdenbeathSNPLABNeale Hanvey
MidlothianSNPLABOwen Thompson
MorayCONSNPDouglas Ross
Motherwell and WishawSNPLABMarion Fellows
Na h-Eileanan An Iar (Western Isles)SNPLABAngus MacNeil
Rutherglen and Hamilton WestSNPLABMargaret Ferrier