On behalf of the National newspaper, Electoral Calculus and Find Out Now have conducted an MRP poll for Holyrood voting intention in Scotland. Polling using MRP, which stands for Multi-level Regression and Post-stratification, is a relatively recent innovation in polling science which have been used to successfully predict the last three British general elections, and gives the estimated result in each constituency.
Fieldwork was conducted from 13-31 March 2026, with a sample size of over 4,000 people.
The MRP poll, one of the first to be done for Holyrood elections, points to a narrow but outright majority for the SNP with 34pc of the vote and 67 seats. This would allow the party to govern Scotland without the need for a coalition partner.
Labour would drop to 17 seats, holding only one constituency seat, but replacing the Conservatives as the official opposition who are predicted to slide into fourth place on just 9 seats.
Reform could potentially gain 14 regional seats, but no constituency seats. In fact, according to the figures, they will tie with the Greens for third place who may also win 14 regional seats. The Liberal Democrats, meanwhile, are in sixth place with 8 seats.
With 67 seats, the SNP would secure its first outright majority since Alex Salmond's 2011 landslide victory, when the party won 69 seats. The gains come entirely through constituency seats where the SNP is expected to dominate while returning no regional MSPs under Holyrood's Additional Member System (AMS).
First Minister John Swinney has made clear that an outright majority would be treated as a mandate to pursue a second independence referendum.
The SNP is expected to take seats from both Labour and the Conservatives.From Labour:
From the Conservatives:
Even if the SNP falls slightly short of the predicted 67 seats, they would still likely continue to be in government supported by the Scottish Greens.
The overall predicted of constituency and regional seats won by each party are shown in the table below.
| Party | Const Vote | Const Seats | Reg Vote | Reg Seats | Total Seats |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SNP | 34% | 67 | 29% | 0 | 67 |
| LAB | 18% | 1 | 17% | 16 | 17 |
| Reform | 15% | 0 | 16% | 14 | 14 |
| Green | 9% | 0 | 14% | 14 | 14 |
| CON | 10% | 0 | 10% | 9 | 9 |
| LIB | 10% | 5 | 10% | 3 | 8 |
| OTH | 4% | 0 | 4% | 0 | 0 |
| Total | 100% | 73 | 100% | 56 | 129 |
The first table show constituency seats by region. The SNP win the vast majority of these, with the Lib Dems winning 5 in the Highlands and Islands, Edinburgh and Fife. Labour win one seat in Edinburgh.
| Region | CON | LAB | LIB | Reform | Green | SNP | OTH | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Central Scotland and Lothians West | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 9 |
| Edinburgh and Lothians East | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 9 |
| Glasgow | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 8 |
| Highlands and Islands | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 8 |
| Mid Scotland and Fife | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 9 |
| North East Scotland | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 10 |
| South Scotland | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 10 |
| West Scotland | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 10 |
| Total | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 67 | 0 | 73 |
The second table shows the total number of seats won, after adding in the proportional representation seats.
| Region | CON | LAB | LIB | Reform | Green | SNP | OTH | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Central Scotland and Lothians West | 1 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 16 |
| Edinburgh and Lothians East | 1 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 16 |
| Glasgow | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 0 | 15 |
| Highlands and Islands | 1 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 15 |
| Mid Scotland and Fife | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 16 |
| North East Scotland | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 0 | 17 |
| South Scotland | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 0 | 17 |
| West Scotland | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 0 | 17 |
| Total | 9 | 17 | 8 | 14 | 14 | 67 | 0 | 129 |
The political landscape in Scotland is undergoing a dramatic shift as support for the establishment parties collapses. Both Labour and the Conservatives are facing their worst ever electoral results.
The outcome would be a disaster for Anas Sarwar and especially Keir Starmer's leadership. Although Labour would be the official opposition they would drop to 17 seats, its lowest result in a Scottish election since 1999. According to the figures, the only constituency seat that Labour would retain is Edinburgh Southern, held by Daniel Johnson. An even more staggering blow for Labour is that almost half of their 2024 voters are abandoning them, with 17pc backing Reform, 9pc the SNP, and 7pc the Greens.
The Conservatives are performing even worse. In 2021 they won 31 seats, but are expected to fall to just 9, plummeting to fourth place. The collapse of the two traditional parties has opened the door for the Greens and Reform to gain ground, making a comeback for Labour and the Conservatives increasingly difficult.
While Reform remains relatively unpopular in Scotland, its estimated 15pc vote share and expected gains on the regional list show a significant breakthrough. The party is unlikely to win any constituency seats, but could secure around 14 regional MSPs and move into third place, drawing support from former Conservative Party voters. Nearly a third of those who backed the Conservatives in 2024 now expected to switch to Reform. Reform is now on route to overtake the Conservatives as the main party on the right.
Despite this momentum, Reform will likely fall short of its ambition to become the main opposition in Holyrood.
Reform is reshaping the right in Scotland, while the Greens are confidently building momentum on the left. They are positioning themselves as the clear alternative for disillusioned Labour voters, particularly in urban and central-belt areas and will benefit from tactical voting on the regional list. They are expected to double their current representation from 7 to 14 regional MSPs.
Martin Baxter, CEO of Electoral Calculus, said "The SNP's hold on Scotland was looking fragile, following the departure of Nicola Sturgeon and their poor general election result in 2024, when they were reduced to just nine Westminster seats. But Labour's victory then has turned sour in voters' mouths, and the SNP are back as the most popular party in Scotland by some margin. In terms of seats, this support should see the SNP continue in government, either with an overall majority, or in partnership with a smaller party. Labour look likely to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory, and Sir Keir Starmer's woes are resonating loud and clear in Scotland."
Find Out Now polled 4,105 Scottish adults online between 13-31 March 2026. The sample was weighted to be representative by gender, age, social grade, other demographics and past voting patterns. Regression techniques were used to infer projected seat results.
Find Out Now and Electoral Calculus are both members of the British Polling Council and abide by its rules.
Data tables are available here, including full list of seats.
Electoral Calculus is a pollster and political consultancy specialising in quantitative analysis and modelling for electoral and other market research projects. Its pre-poll prediction for the 2019 general election was the most accurate published forecast. It was founded by Martin Baxter, its CEO.
Electoral Calculus is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules.
Find Out Now is a polling and market research panel with 2.8 million members. Highly profiled respondents can be targeted instantly, with over 100,000 daily responses allowing the delivery of same-day nationally representative sampling.
Find Out Now are members of the British Polling Council and Market Research Society, and abide by their rules.
Modern polling analysis often uses statistical regression techniques to get more accurate and geographically detailed results. Also called MRP (multi-level regression and post stratification) they have been used successfully by Electoral Calculus and other pollsters to predict general elections, local elections and the 2019 European elections.