On behalf of PLMR, Electoral Calculus has conducted a new MRP poll. Polling using MRP, which stands for Multi-level Regression and Post-stratification, is a relatively recent innovation in polling science which have been used to successfully predict the last three British general elections, and gives the estimated result in each Westminster constituency.
Fieldwork was conducted from 10-17 June 2025, with a sample size of over 5,400 people.
More details at the PLMR website.
The poll puts Reform UK on 31pc, ahead of Labour on 22pc and the Conservatives trailing on 19pc. In terms of the number of seats won, Reform are predicted to win an outright majority with 377 seats (104 seat majority), with Labour winning 118 seats and the Liberal Democrats winning 69.
The table below gives the prediction in numerical form:
| Party | GE 2024 | Predicted Election Result | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Votes | Seats | MRP Votes | MRP Seats | |||
| Reform | 15% | 5 | 31% | 377 | ||
| LAB | 35% | 412 | 22% | 118 | ||
| LIB | 13% | 72 | 13% | 69 | ||
| CON | 24% | 121 | 19% | 29 | ||
| SNP | 3% | 9 | 3% | 26 | ||
| MIN | 3% | 5 | 4% | 5 | ||
| Green | 7% | 4 | 9% | 4 | ||
| Plaid | 1% | 4 | 1% | 4 | ||
This would see Nigel Farage become Prime Minister without the need for any parliamentary coalition or alliances. Even if all the other parties joined forces, they would not have enough seats to prevent Farage walking into Number Ten.
Map: Predicted winners by seat
The following Labour cabinet ministers are at risk of losing their seats (all to Reform) under our calculations:
And the following prominent Conservatives are also at risk (to Reform unless indicated):
The poll also asked voters what are the most important issues that will influence how you vote in the next General Election. Responsents could pick up to three options.
| Response | All Voters | CON voters | LAB voters | Reform voters | LIB voters |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The cost of living and the economy | 54% | 61% | 60% | 57% | 55% |
| The National Health Service (NHS) waiting times, staffing and funding | 46% | 48% | 60% | 39% | 52% |
| Immigration and border control | 38% | 60% | 20% | 83% | 24% |
| Crime, policing, and justice | 24% | 36% | 21% | 43% | 20% |
| Trust in politicians and government integrity | 21% | 21% | 22% | 26% | 23% |
| Social care and support for the elderly / vulnerable | 20% | 24% | 21% | 15% | 22% |
| Brexit and the UK's relationship with Europe | 17% | 18% | 21% | 20% | 26% |
| Housing affordability and home ownership | 14% | 8% | 17% | 11% | 18% |
| Climate change and the environment | 15% | 9% | 23% | 3% | 27% |
| Education and schools | 12% | 9% | 17% | 3% | 18% |
| Other | 4% | 3% | 3% | 2% | 4% |
| Don't know | 15% | 4% | 8% | 3% | 6% |
The economy tops the agenda for most voters, with a majority placing it in their top three issues. No other issue got over 50pc, but the NHS came closest with 46pc naming it. Immigration was named by over a third of voters, and was the third-placed issue. The top three issues (economy, health and immigration) have remained the most important to voters in recent months, though their ranking has varied over time.
Issues vary depending on party preference. Labour voters are very concerned about the NHS (60pc), but much less worried about immigration (20pc). Among Reform voters, the ranking is reversed. Immigration is a top issue for 83pc, while just 39pc mention health.
Following polling errors in 2024, Electoral Calculus took part in investigations into possible causes, co-ordinated by the British Polling Council. Our findings are available here. In summary,
To incorporate these findings into our post-election polling, we have made two assumptions about those who answer "don't know" to either the turnout or voting intention questions.
Kevin Craig, founder of PLMR, who commissioned the poll said:
"This is a watershed moment for British politics. Reform UK's projected majority shows that deep disillusionment with both major parties is turning into a wholesale rejection of the old political order.
"Voters want someone to deliver on their economic concerns, but they also want to feel heard on issues including immigration, crime, and political trust. Reform is cutting through at the convergences of economic insecurity and cultural discontent, and if Labour or the Conservatives are unable to bridge that divide, we are heading for one of the most dramatic elections in British history."
Martin Baxter, founder of Electoral Calculus, said "This is our first MRP poll to show Reform could have an outright parliamentary majority if there were an election soon. The 'big two' established parties now only command the support of 41pc of the public, which is unprecedented in the last hundred years. If Labour could bring back disaffected centre-left voters from the Liberal Democrats and the Greens, then they could easily beat Reform. As it stands, Reform is firmly out in front."
Find Out Now polled 5,444 GB adults online between 10-17 June 2025. The sample was weighted to be representative by gender, age, social grade, other demographics and past voting patterns. Regression techniques were used to infer projected seat results.
Find Out Now and Electoral Calculus are both members of the British Polling Council and abide by its rules.
Data tables are available here, including full list of seats.
PLMR is an award-winning integrated communications agency founded in 2006, ranked in the Top 50 PR Firms in the UK by PR Week. Our purpose is to make a positive and sustainable difference for our clients, our people and society. Our services include PR, strategic communications, corporate communications, crisis communications and reputation management, public affairs, film and digital, social media, design, media training and more. We are proud to work with organisations across a range of sectors such as technology, health and social care, education and training, energy and sustainability, the built environment and the third sector.
Electoral Calculus is a pollster and political consultancy specialising in quantitative analysis and modelling for electoral and other market research projects. Its pre-poll prediction for the 2019 general election was the most accurate published forecast. It was founded by Martin Baxter, its CEO.
Electoral Calculus is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules.
Find Out Now is a polling and market research panel with 2.8 million members. Highly profiled respondents can be targeted instantly, with over 100,000 daily responses allowing the delivery of same-day nationally representative sampling.
Find Out Now are members of the British Polling Council and Market Research Society, and abide by their rules.
Modern polling analysis often uses statistical regression techniques to get more accurate and geographically detailed results. Also called MRP (multi-level regression and post stratification) they have been used successfully by Electoral Calculus and other pollsters to predict general elections, local elections and the 2019 European elections.