On behalf of PLMR, Electoral Calculus has conducted a new MRP poll. Polling using MRP, which stands for Multi-level Regression and Post-stratification, is a relatively recent innovation in polling science which have been used to successfully predict the last three British general elections, and gives the estimated result in each Westminster constituency.
Fieldwork was conducted from 10-18 September 2025, with a sample size of over 7,400 people.
More details at the PLMR website.
The poll places Reform UK on 36pc, ahead of Labour on 21pc and with the Conservatives trailing on just 15pc. On these figures, Reform is predicted to secure 367 seats with an outright majority of 84, leaving Labour on 117 seats and the Liberal Democrats on 58.
The table below gives the prediction in numerical form:
| Party | GE 2024 | Predicted Election Result | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Votes | Seats | MRP Votes | MRP Seats | |
| Reform | 15% | 5 | 36% | 367 |
| LAB | 35% | 412 | 21% | 117 |
| LIB | 13% | 72 | 10% | 58 |
| SNP | 3% | 9 | 3% | 42 |
| CON | 24% | 121 | 15% | 24 |
| YP | 0% | 0 | 4% | 13 |
| Green | 7% | 4 | 7% | 6 |
| Plaid | 1% | 4 | 1% | 5 |
| MIN | 3% | 5 | 3% | 0 |
Based on the numbers, if a general election were held now, Nigel Farage could walk into Number 10 with an overall majority, removing any need for a coalition. The new 'Your Party', likely led by Jeremy Corbyn, would win 4pc of the votes and 13 seats, but is also poised to spoil Labour's chances – if Your Party supporters were all to vote Labour, then Labour would win 44 more seats.
Map: Predicted winners by seat
The following Labour cabinet ministers are at risk of losing their seats (to Reform unless indicated) under our calculations:
And the following prominent Conservatives are also at risk (to Reform unless indicated):
Following a major polling project on tactical voting (TV) by Electoral Calculus and Find Out Now, we are able to estimate the effect of tactical voting on the predicted election result. Our TV analysis shows that:
The table shows the predicted vote share and seats won both without tactical voting and with tactical voting.
| Party | GE 2024 | Predicted Election Result (No TV) | Predicted Election Result (With TV) | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Votes | Seats | MRP Votes | MRP Seats | MRP Votes | MRP Seats | |
| Reform | 15% | 5 | 33% | 445 | 36% | 367 |
| LAB | 35% | 412 | 19% | 73 | 21% | 117 |
| LIB | 13% | 72 | 11% | 42 | 10% | 58 |
| SNP | 3% | 9 | 3% | 41 | 3% | 42 |
| CON | 24% | 121 | 16% | 7 | 15% | 24 |
| YP | 0% | 0 | 5% | 13 | 4% | 13 |
| Green | 7% | 4 | 9% | 6 | 7% | 6 |
| Plaid | 1% | 4 | 1% | 5 | 1% | 5 |
| MIN | 3% | 5 | 3% | 0 | 3% | 0 |
Without tactical voting, Reform UK would gain a massive majority of 240. When tactical voting is factored in, however, the party would lose over 75 seats benefiting Labour, the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats.
The poll also asked voters what are the most important issues that they would like the government to prioritise in the upcoming Autumn Budget. Respondents could pick up to three options.
| Response | All Voters | CON voters | LAB voters | Reform voters | LIB voters |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The cost of living and the economy | 59% | 59% | 68% | 58% | 57% |
| Immigration and border control | 51% | 74% | 30% | 90% | 36% |
| The National Health Service (NHS) | 45% | 39% | 62% | 34% | 59% |
| Crime, policing, and justice | 23% | 30% | 19% | 37% | 20% |
| Social care and support for the elderly / vulnerable | 18% | 18% | 25% | 14% | 22% |
| Climate change and the environment | 12% | 6% | 19% | 2% | 25% |
| Cutting taxes | 13% | 21% | 7% | 20% | 8% |
| Education and schools | 8% | 5% | 13% | 3% | 13% |
| Public health and illness prevention | 7% | 4% | 12% | 3% | 10% |
| Reducing the budget deficit | 8% | 13% | 7% | 8% | 10% |
| Other | 3% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 3% |
| Don't know | 10% | 3% | 4% | 2% | 5% |
The cost of living and the economy sits firmly at the forefront of the national conversation, with a majority (59pc) of the public placing it in their top three issues. Immigration follows closely behind at 51pc, making it the only other issue to command majority support, while the NHS comes in third with 45pc saying it is a priority. The top three issues (economy, immigration and health) have remained the most important to voters in recent months, though their ranking has varied over time.
Priorities shift considerably depending on party affiliation. Labour voters are very concerned about both the economy (68pc) and the NHS (62pc), while immigration is a far lower priority at 30pc. Reform voters, by contrast, are almost entirely focused on immigration, with 90pc naming it as the top issue, while just 34pc mention the NHS.
While the economy remains the top priority for many, reducing the budget deficit sits near the very bottom of voters' concerns, chosen by only 8pc overall.
Following polling errors in 2024, Electoral Calculus took part in investigations into possible causes, co-ordinated by the British Polling Council. Our findings are available here. In summary,
To incorporate these findings into our post-election polling, we have made two assumptions about those who answer "don't know" to either the turnout or voting intention questions.
Kevin Craig, founder of PLMR, who commissioned the poll said:
"This poll shows a remarkable fall from grace for the Conservative Party, and exposes where voter priorities lie. The electorate is demanding action on the economy first and foremost, with concerns around immigration and the NHS still present, and traditional party loyalties are under unprecedented pressure.
"However, there is a long way to go until 2029 and the message is clear: voters want the weekly shop to cost less. It's time to forget the slogans and the clever language. Instead, the Government must keep calm and focus on delivering more money into working people's pockets to shore up support ahead of the next election."
Martin Baxter, founder of Electoral Calculus, said "This poll underscores just how volatile the political landscape has become. There are two big changes at the moment, but they point in different directions. Anti-Reform tactical voting means Reform's poll lead isn't as good as it looks, as the party could lose dozens of seats because many voters will vote for any candidate without a light-blue rosette. However, the emergence of 'Your Party' further fragments the left-of-centre vote, and makes things easier for Reform UK and harder for Labour.
"Ahead of the Autumn Budget coming in November, voters are making their priorities clear, placing the economy, immigration and the NHS at the top of the agenda. Labour now faces a fight for votes, and their ability to act decisively and deliver on these priorities will determine whether the party can defend its leadership or risk falling further behind as Reform seeks to solidify its gains."
Find Out Now polled 7,449 GB adults online between 10-18 September 2025. The sample was weighted to be representative by gender, age, social grade, other demographics and past voting patterns. Regression techniques were used to infer projected seat results.
Find Out Now and Electoral Calculus are both members of the British Polling Council and abide by its rules.
Data tables are available here, including full list of seats.
PLMR is an award-winning integrated communications agency founded in 2006, ranked in the Top 50 PR Firms in the UK by PR Week. Our purpose is to make a positive and sustainable difference for our clients, our people and society. Our services include PR, strategic communications, corporate communications, crisis communications and reputation management, public affairs, film and digital, social media, design, media training and more. We are proud to work with organisations across a range of sectors such as technology, health and social care, education and training, energy and sustainability, the built environment and the third sector.
Electoral Calculus is a pollster and political consultancy specialising in quantitative analysis and modelling for electoral and other market research projects. Its pre-poll prediction for the 2019 general election was the most accurate published forecast. It was founded by Martin Baxter, its CEO.
Electoral Calculus is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules.
Find Out Now is a polling and market research panel with 2.8 million members. Highly profiled respondents can be targeted instantly, with over 100,000 daily responses allowing the delivery of same-day nationally representative sampling.
Find Out Now are members of the British Polling Council and Market Research Society, and abide by their rules.
Modern polling analysis often uses statistical regression techniques to get more accurate and geographically detailed results. Also called MRP (multi-level regression and post stratification) they have been used successfully by Electoral Calculus and other pollsters to predict general elections, local elections and the 2019 European elections.