Banbury: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Banbury: Overview

 Projection: CON seat 

Implied MP at 2019: Victoria Prentis  (CON)
County/Area: Oxfordshire (South East)
Electorate: 82,615
Turnout: 69.8%

 Implied 2019 VotesImplied 2019 Share
CON30,89853.6%
LAB16,34328.3%
LIB8,03913.9%
Green2,4054.2%
CON Majority14,55525.2%

See overview of other seats in South East.

Banbury : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Banbury constituency, the 'South East' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat South EastAll GB
Party Winner 2019CONCONCON
Party Winner 2017CONCONCON
Party Winner 2015CONCONCON
Economic Position11° Right11° Right
National Position3° Nat3° Nat
Social Position2° Con1° Con
TribeKind Yuppies
EU Leave %51%52%52%
British Identity28%29%29%
Good Health50%49%48%
UK Born89%88%87%
Good Education39%43%39%
Good Job51%56%51%
High SEC52%57%51%
Average Age48.049.148.3
ABC1 Class54%60%54%

Banbury ranks #367 for "Leave", #130 for "Right", #309 for "National" and #301 for "Social" out of 600 new seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery GlobalGlobalCentristNationalVery Nat
Social PositionVery LibLiberalModerateConservativeVery Cons
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Banbury: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2019 had the new boundaries for Banbury been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2019. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

List of old seats forming part of Banbury

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Banbury

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Banbury, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: BanburyTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
CherwellAdderbury2,300Banbury9443342600680001,606
CherwellAmbrosden and Chesterton2,939Oxfordshire East1,2834122800770002,052
CherwellBanbury Calthorpe4,134Banbury1,57081038501220002,887
CherwellBanbury Easington5,954Banbury2,3121,06460801730004,157
CherwellBanbury Grimsbury and Castle8,331Banbury2,5942,28269302480005,817
CherwellBanbury Hardwick6,454Banbury2,4261,28161301860004,506
CherwellBanbury Neithrop4,455Banbury1,3601,29433101260003,111
CherwellBanbury Ruscote6,492Banbury1,9451,96544701760004,533
CherwellBicester East4,472Banbury1,74886639201170003,123
CherwellBicester North5,369Banbury2,10093954901620003,750
CherwellBicester South4,143Banbury1,56773845601310002,892
CherwellBicester Town3,934Banbury1,43985534001130002,747
CherwellBicester West5,663Banbury2,2351,02952701630003,954
CherwellBloxham and Bodicote4,654Banbury1,86468456201390003,249
CherwellCaversfield2,297Banbury9893352200600001,604
CherwellCropredy2,083Banbury8972662300610001,454
CherwellDeddington2,066Banbury8322732750630001,443
CherwellFringford1,788Oxfordshire East7952081960500001,249
CherwellHook Norton1,997Banbury8082732530610001,395
CherwellLaunton2,774Oxfordshire East1,1703763160750001,937
CherwellSibford2,036Banbury8442662490620001,421
CherwellThe Astons and Heyfords3,777Banbury1,57253541501150002,637
CherwellWroxton2,004Banbury8522542340590001,399
 Total90,116 34,14617,3398,83102,60700062,923

The full details of these calculations are given on the Banbury seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Banbury

The new seat of Banbury is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Banbury
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
Old Seat CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
CherwellAdderbury2,300Banbury9443342600680001,606
CherwellBanbury Calthorpe4,134Banbury1,57081038501220002,887
CherwellBanbury Easington5,954Banbury2,3121,06460801730004,157
CherwellBanbury Grimsbury and Castle8,331Banbury2,5942,28269302480005,817
CherwellBanbury Hardwick6,454Banbury2,4261,28161301860004,506
CherwellBanbury Neithrop4,455Banbury1,3601,29433101260003,111
CherwellBanbury Ruscote6,492Banbury1,9451,96544701760004,533
CherwellBicester East4,472Banbury1,74886639201170003,123
CherwellBicester North5,369Banbury2,10093954901620003,750
CherwellBicester South4,143Banbury1,56773845601310002,892
CherwellBicester Town3,934Banbury1,43985534001130002,747
CherwellBicester West5,663Banbury2,2351,02952701630003,954
CherwellBloxham and Bodicote4,654Banbury1,86468456201390003,249
CherwellCaversfield2,297Banbury9893352200600001,604
CherwellCropredy2,083Banbury8972662300610001,454
CherwellDeddington2,066Banbury8322732750630001,443
CherwellHook Norton1,997Banbury8082732530610001,395
CherwellSibford2,036Banbury8442662490620001,421
CherwellThe Astons and Heyfords3,777Banbury1,57253541501150002,637
CherwellWroxton2,004Banbury8522542340590001,399
 Total82,615 30,89816,3438,03902,40500057,685

And these are the implied results for 2019 for the new seat of Banbury. Please note that the wards used are those of 2015 in order to be consistent with those used by the Boundary Commissions.


© 2020 Electoral Calculus Ltd
Powered by TigerLib (02-Mar-2020 12:20, Py3L, sc1)