Belfast South: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Belfast South: Overview

 Projection: SDLP seat 

Implied MP at 2019: Claire Hanna  (SDLP)
County/Area: Antrim (Northern Ireland)
Electorate: 75,235
Turnout: 66.9%

 Implied 2019 VotesImplied 2019 Share
SDLP26,72453.1%
DUP13,04025.9%
Alliance8,12416.1%
UUP1,6403.3%
OTH6611.3%
SF880.2%
Green310.1%
MIN240.0%
SDLP Majority13,68427.2%

See overview of other seats in Northern Ireland.

Belfast South : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Belfast South constituency, the 'Northern Ireland' area and nation.

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat Northern IrelandAll UK
Party Winner 2019SDLPDUPCON
Party Winner 2017DUPDUPCON
Party Winner 2015DUPDUPCON
EU Leave %32%44%52%
British Identity36%40%29%
Good Health52%48%48%
UK Born88%93%88%
Good Education55%36%39%
Good Job62%47%51%
High SEC64%57%51%
Average Age44.047.248.4
ABC1 Class66%45%53%

Belfast South ranks #563 for "Leave", out of 600 new seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Belfast South: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2019 had the new boundaries for Belfast South been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2019. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

List of old seats forming part of Belfast South

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Belfast East

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Belfast East, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Belfast EastTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
New SeatUUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
Alliance
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
BelfastBallymacarrett3,924Belfast East16101,2721,08100002,514
BelfastBeersbridge4,622Belfast East18801,4981,27500002,961
BelfastBelmont3,492Belfast East13309281,17700002,238
BelfastBloomfield4,314Belfast East16801,3041,29200002,764
BelfastConnswater4,083Belfast East16301,2811,17200002,616
BelfastCregagh1,629Belfast South61049648700001,044
BelfastGarnerville3,296Belfast East12708941,09100002,112
BelfastGilnahirk3,632Belfast East14501,0551,12700002,327
BelfastHillfoot1,492Belfast East5504934080000956
BelfastKnock3,673Belfast East13408811,33800002,353
BelfastMerok3,140Belfast East11801,14175200002,011
BelfastOrangefield3,396Belfast East12501,09695500002,176
BelfastSandown3,226Belfast East12709301,01000002,067
BelfastShandon3,668Belfast East14301,0251,18200002,350
BelfastStormont3,545Belfast East13309121,22600002,271
BelfastSydenham3,738Belfast East15101,2301,01400002,395
BelfastWoodstock50Belfast South201614000032
Lisburn and CastlereaghBallyhanwood1,997Belfast East74076943700001,280
Lisburn and CastlereaghCarrowreagh2,665Belfast East9301,03558000001,708
Lisburn and CastlereaghDundonald2,172Belfast East80084147100001,392
Lisburn and CastlereaghEnler2,311Belfast East74091549200001,481
Lisburn and CastlereaghGraham's Bridge2,181Belfast East61086247400001,397
 Total66,246 2,516020,87419,055000042,445

The full details of these calculations are given on the Belfast East seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Belfast South

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Belfast South, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Belfast SouthTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
New SeatUUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
Alliance
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
BelfastBelvoir2,895Belfast South59913791178000191,960
BelfastBlackstaff4,397Belfast South931,4121,179260000312,975
BelfastCentral7,037Belfast South953,231878478000794,761
BelfastCregagh1,445Belfast South264333671430009978
BelfastFinaghy2,841Belfast South571,232476133000251,923
BelfastHillfoot1,738Belfast East31488501145000101,175
BelfastMalone2,942Belfast South521,402282233000231,992
BelfastMerok0 000000000
BelfastMusgrave3,173Belfast South521,528392142000322,146
BelfastOrmeau4,099Belfast South531,726424535000352,773
BelfastRavenhill3,030Belfast South49927522532000202,050
BelfastRosetta3,549Belfast South591,364421530000272,401
BelfastStranmillis5,133Belfast South1052,235633456000453,474
BelfastUpper Malone2,965Belfast South581,048676203000202,005
BelfastWindsor6,778Belfast South1262,671933800000564,586
BelfastWoodstock3,823Belfast South811,251868360000282,588
Lisburn and CastlereaghBeechill2,340Belfast South44821429275000141,583
Lisburn and CastlereaghCairnshill1,978Belfast South37750304235000131,339
Lisburn and CastlereaghCarryduff East1,839Belfast South36645384167000121,244
Lisburn and CastlereaghCarryduff West2,169Belfast South41835348228000151,467
Lisburn and CastlereaghGalwally2,024Belfast South37758307255000131,370
Lisburn and CastlereaghKnockbracken2,016Belfast South36804260251000141,365
Lisburn and CastlereaghNewtownbreda1,773Belfast South32605303249000101,199
 Total69,984 1,25927,07911,6786,78800055047,354

The full details of these calculations are given on the Belfast South seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Belfast West

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Belfast West, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Belfast WestTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
New SeatUUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
Alliance
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
BelfastAndersonstown3,299Belfast West01551969001,139292771,949
BelfastBallygomartin4,087Belfast West011076612508014851272,414
BelfastBallymurphy3,561Belfast West01202069601,236359872,104
BelfastBeechmount4,012Belfast West016023811401,365395992,371
BelfastCentral186Belfast South013158045246111
BelfastClonard4,003Belfast West024032811901,0604931252,365
BelfastCollin Glen4,047Belfast West016823810601,405377962,390
BelfastDunmurry2,958Belfast West01971811090986207671,747
BelfastFalls3,608Belfast West019831110809404601142,131
BelfastFalls Park3,316Belfast West01691959201,147280751,958
BelfastForth River2,561Belfast West068483750504305791,514
BelfastLadybrook3,558Belfast West020420712101,238255772,102
BelfastLagmore5,351Belfast West028730414901,9183911123,161
BelfastPoleglass4,378Belfast West019624811401,586349942,587
BelfastShankill2,255Belfast West060426650444268701,333
BelfastShaw's Road3,592Belfast West01542129301,256325832,123
BelfastStewartstown3,629Belfast West01962069801,312258752,145
BelfastTurf Lodge3,524Belfast West01162049501,213366872,081
BelfastTwinbrook3,399Belfast West01661969601,207268752,008
BelfastWoodvale322Belfast West0960100633810190
 Total65,646 02,9865,2201,883020,8656,1951,63538,784

The full details of these calculations are given on the Belfast West seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Lagan Valley

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Lagan Valley, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Lagan ValleyTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
New SeatUUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
Alliance
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonDonaghcloney78Upper Bann1421712010248
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonDromore3,364Down Mid523707595700370572,016
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonGransha2,609Down Mid433615663930670441,564
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonQuilly3,128Down Mid537667084580540521,875
BelfastBelvoir277Belfast South2210536601005166
BelfastDunmurry950Belfast West8035178223035018569
Lisburn and CastlereaghBallinderry2,685Antrim South270687124480670441,609
Lisburn and CastlereaghBallymacash2,334Antrim South226586534100140391,400
Lisburn and CastlereaghBallymacbrennan2,160Down Mid222406163700130341,295
Lisburn and CastlereaghBallymacoss3,207Antrim South280691,0064970200511,923
Lisburn and CastlereaghBlaris2,278Antrim South336445743550170401,366
Lisburn and CastlereaghDerryaghy2,976Belfast West26110157268601100551,785
Lisburn and CastlereaghDromara2,497Down Mid250477523930160391,497
Lisburn and CastlereaghDrumbo2,173Belfast South229405334530120351,302
Lisburn and CastlereaghHarmony Hill2,307Antrim South246655004640670411,383
Lisburn and CastlereaghHilden2,756Antrim South2576076142801020451,653
Lisburn and CastlereaghHillhall2,671Antrim South240517954570170421,602
Lisburn and CastlereaghHillsborough2,338Down Mid412494584280150401,402
Lisburn and CastlereaghKnockmore2,862Antrim South238718814600180481,716
Lisburn and CastlereaghLagan2,273Antrim South403465143450150391,362
Lisburn and CastlereaghLagan Valley2,549Antrim South197568433760160411,529
Lisburn and CastlereaghLambeg2,528Belfast West249507444020300411,516
Lisburn and CastlereaghLisnagarvey2,322Antrim South201597233560150391,393
Lisburn and CastlereaghMaghaberry3,049Antrim South325638924540460481,828
Lisburn and CastlereaghMagheralave2,380Antrim South213685175120750411,426
Lisburn and CastlereaghMaze2,160Antrim South377414673600130371,295
Lisburn and CastlereaghMoira2,803Antrim South410705325990180511,680
Lisburn and CastlereaghOld Warren2,998Antrim South216711,0334100190491,798
Lisburn and CastlereaghRavernet2,200Down Mid272405863730120361,319
Lisburn and CastlereaghStonyford360Antrim South3411945801306216
Lisburn and CastlereaghWallace Park2,979Antrim South295747116100450511,786
Lisburn and CastlereaghWhite Mountain3,346Antrim South327968116290880572,008
Newry, Mourne and DownBallyward138Down South1362531050383
 Total75,735 8,6081,75819,58613,08601,10201,27045,410

The full details of these calculations are given on the Lagan Valley seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Strangford

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Strangford, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: StrangfordTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
New SeatUUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
Alliance
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Lisburn and CastlereaghCarryduff East424Belfast South14198990510011238
Lisburn and CastlereaghKnockbracken185Belfast South4836443405104
Lisburn and CastlereaghMoneyreagh2,065Belfast South80436253192370591,156
Newry, Mourne and DownBallynahinch3,165Down Mid20214176545543740931,773
Newry, Mourne and DownCrossgar and Killyleagh1,960Down South1298646329127450571,098
Newry, Mourne and DownDerryboy2,588Down Mid21610957438435560741,448
Newry, Mourne and DownKilmore2,889Down Mid27511866341636270841,619
Newry, Mourne and DownSaintfield2,963Down Mid25612063051935150841,659
North Down and ArdsBallygowan3,061Down Mid2576382544734110761,713
North Down and ArdsBallywalter3,246Down North15510897644437100881,818
North Down and ArdsCarrowdore2,144Down North102716293092570571,200
North Down and ArdsComber North2,800Down Mid2235880337132100711,568
North Down and ArdsComber South2,654Down Mid2035566845430100671,487
North Down and ArdsComber West2,725Down Mid2005668347930100681,526
North Down and ArdsConway Square3,089Down Mid1156788853035130831,731
North Down and ArdsCronstown3,322Down Mid2057088356838130851,862
North Down and ArdsGlen3,096Down Mid1716581455935120791,735
North Down and ArdsGregstown2,553Down Mid1745470539129100671,430
North Down and ArdsKillinchy2,523Down Mid203525864742980621,414
North Down and ArdsKircubbin3,122Down North11214381448041770821,749
North Down and ArdsLoughries1,465Down North6052422225175040821
North Down and ArdsMovilla3,177Down Mid1216988457436130841,781
North Down and ArdsPortaferry2,760Down North8514071042337770741,546
North Down and ArdsPortavogie2,912Down North1119892037933100791,630
North Down and ArdsScrabo2,797Down Mid2065869949231110701,567
North Down and ArdsWest Winds3,242Down Mid1437095051836130861,816
 Total66,927 4,0221,99317,70410,63579255801,78537,489

The full details of these calculations are given on the Strangford seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Belfast South

The new seat of Belfast South is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Belfast South
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
Old Seat UUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
Alliance
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
BelfastBelvoir277Lagan Valley2210536601005166
BelfastBelvoir2,895Belfast South59913791178000191,960
BelfastBlackstaff4,397Belfast South931,4121,179260000312,975
BelfastCentral186Belfast West013158045246111
BelfastCentral7,037Belfast South953,231878478000794,761
BelfastCregagh1,629Belfast East61049648700001,044
BelfastCregagh1,445Belfast South264333671430009978
BelfastFinaghy2,841Belfast South571,232476133000251,923
BelfastMalone2,942Belfast South521,402282233000231,992
BelfastMusgrave3,173Belfast South521,528392142000322,146
BelfastOrmeau4,099Belfast South531,726424535000352,773
BelfastRavenhill3,030Belfast South49927522532000202,050
BelfastRosetta3,549Belfast South591,364421530000272,401
BelfastStranmillis5,133Belfast South1052,235633456000453,474
BelfastUpper Malone2,965Belfast South581,048676203000202,005
BelfastWindsor6,778Belfast South1262,671933800000564,586
BelfastWoodstock50Belfast East201614000032
BelfastWoodstock3,823Belfast South811,251868360000282,588
Lisburn and CastlereaghBeechill2,340Belfast South44821429275000141,583
Lisburn and CastlereaghCairnshill1,978Belfast South37750304235000131,339
Lisburn and CastlereaghCarryduff East424Strangford14198990510011238
Lisburn and CastlereaghCarryduff East1,839Belfast South36645384167000121,244
Lisburn and CastlereaghCarryduff West2,169Belfast South41835348228000151,467
Lisburn and CastlereaghDrumbo2,173Lagan Valley229405334530120351,302
Lisburn and CastlereaghGalwally2,024Belfast South37758307255000131,370
Lisburn and CastlereaghKnockbracken185Strangford4836443405104
Lisburn and CastlereaghKnockbracken2,016Belfast South36804260251000141,365
Lisburn and CastlereaghMoneyreagh2,065Strangford80436253192370591,156
Lisburn and CastlereaghNewtownbreda1,773Belfast South32605303249000101,199
 Total75,235 1,64026,72413,0408,12431882466150,332

And these are the implied results for 2019 for the new seat of Belfast South. Please note that the wards used are those of 2015 in order to be consistent with those used by the Boundary Commissions.


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