Belfast South: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Belfast South: Overview

 Projection: DUP seat 

Implied MP at 2017: Emma Little Pengelly  (DUP)
County/Area: Antrim (Northern Ireland)
Electorate: 71,163
Turnout: 65.8%

 Implied 2017 VotesImplied 2017 Share
DUP15,61333.3%
SDLP11,12523.8%
MIN8,74318.7%
SF6,91714.8%
Green2,2884.9%
UUP1,8193.9%
OTH3180.7%
DUP Majority4,4889.6%

See overview of other seats in Northern Ireland.

Belfast South: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Belfast South been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

List of old seats forming part of Belfast South

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Belfast East

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Belfast East, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Belfast EastTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatUUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
BelfastBallymacarrett3,761Belfast East100151,62009105669222,540
BelfastBeersbridge4,430Belfast East118181,908010124788262,992
BelfastBelmont3,347Belfast East6561,01305081,084352,261
BelfastBloomfield4,135Belfast East110171,781010116736242,794
BelfastConnswater3,913Belfast East104161,68609109696232,643
BelfastCregagh1,561Belfast South426672044427891,055
BelfastGarnerville3,159Belfast East61695704781,022332,134
BelfastGilnahirk3,481Belfast East6871,05405281,127362,352
BelfastHillfoot1,430Belfast East38661603402548965
BelfastKnock3,520Belfast East6871,06605281,139372,377
BelfastMerok3,010Belfast East80121,2970784535172,032
BelfastOrangefield3,255Belfast East87131,4020891579192,199
BelfastSandown3,092Belfast East60693604671,001322,088
BelfastShandon3,516Belfast East6871,06405281,138372,374
BelfastStormont3,398Belfast East6671,02905181,100362,297
BelfastSydenham3,583Belfast East95151,54408100637212,420
BelfastWoodstock48Belfast South10210019032
Lisburn and CastlereaghBallyhanwood1,914Belfast East3117490254468151,293
Lisburn and CastlereaghCarrowreagh2,554Belfast East4111,0000335624201,724
Lisburn and CastlereaghDundonald2,082Belfast East3418150274508161,405
Lisburn and CastlereaghEnler2,215Belfast East3618680295541181,498
Lisburn and CastlereaghGraham's Bridge2,090Belfast East3418190274510171,412
 Total63,494 1,40716923,917055989115,44350142,887

The full details of these calculations are given on the Belfast East seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Belfast South

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Belfast South, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Belfast SouthTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatUUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
BelfastBelvoir2,735Belfast South6651565505625825181,809
BelfastBlackstaff4,153Belfast South875807660250336705222,746
BelfastCentral6,647Belfast South1399281,22504015381,128354,394
BelfastCregagh1,365Belfast South35284213020320301903
BelfastFinaghy2,684Belfast South6550564305525324681,775
BelfastHillfoot1,642Belfast East423412560243853611,085
BelfastMalone2,779Belfast South6752366605726125581,837
BelfastMerok0 000000000
BelfastMusgrave2,997Belfast South7256471806128227591,981
BelfastOrmeau3,872Belfast South815417130234313657202,559
BelfastRavenhill2,862Belfast South735944470436716321,893
BelfastRosetta3,352Belfast South856975230507857322,215
BelfastStranmillis4,849Belfast South1016778940292392823253,204
BelfastUpper Malone2,801Belfast South6852767105726325781,851
BelfastWindsor6,402Belfast South1348941,18003855181,087344,232
BelfastWoodstock3,611Belfast South927505640548467922,387
Lisburn and CastlereaghBeechill2,210Belfast South53394523033119328101,460
Lisburn and CastlereaghCairnshill1,868Belfast South4533344302810127791,236
Lisburn and CastlereaghCarryduff East1,737Belfast South423104120269425781,149
Lisburn and CastlereaghCarryduff West2,049Belfast South4936548503111130491,354
Lisburn and CastlereaghGalwally1,912Belfast South4634145302910328391,264
Lisburn and CastlereaghKnockbracken1,904Belfast South4634045102910328291,260
Lisburn and CastlereaghNewtownbreda1,675Belfast South402993970259024881,107
 Total66,106 1,52811,30213,29802,2407,1427,94424743,701

The full details of these calculations are given on the Belfast South seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Belfast West

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Belfast West, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Belfast WestTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatUUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
BelfastAndersonstown3,137Belfast West0138148001,504200522,042
BelfastBallygomartin3,887Belfast West082793001,1464031052,529
BelfastBallymurphy3,386Belfast West0149160001,623216562,204
BelfastBeechmount3,815Belfast West0168180001,828243642,483
BelfastCentral177Belfast South014190057205115
BelfastClonard3,807Belfast West081777001,1223951032,478
BelfastCollin Glen3,849Belfast West0170181001,845245642,505
BelfastDunmurry2,813Belfast West0183131001,370116301,830
BelfastFalls3,431Belfast West073700001,011356932,233
BelfastFalls Park3,153Belfast West0139149001,511201522,052
BelfastForth River2,435Belfast West05249700718253661,586
BelfastLadybrook3,384Belfast West0221158001,648140362,203
BelfastLagmore5,089Belfast West0332237002,479210553,313
BelfastPoleglass4,163Belfast West0271194002,028172452,710
BelfastShankill2,144Belfast West04643800632222581,396
BelfastShaw's Road3,416Belfast West0151161001,637218572,224
BelfastStewartstown3,451Belfast West0225161001,681143372,247
BelfastTurf Lodge3,351Belfast West0148158001,606214562,182
BelfastTwinbrook3,232Belfast West0211151001,574134352,105
BelfastWoodvale306Belfast West06620090328198
 Total62,426 02,8605,4550027,1104,1331,07740,635

The full details of these calculations are given on the Belfast West seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Lagan Valley

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Lagan Valley, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Lagan ValleyTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatUUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonDonaghcloney75Upper Bann132260013045
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonDromore3,215Down Mid5441021,1320055143201,996
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonGransha2,493Down Mid423788780042111151,547
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonQuilly2,989Down Mid507941,0530051133181,856
BelfastBelvoir265Belfast South1335810014193165
BelfastDunmurry908Belfast West371103200060335565
Lisburn and CastlereaghBallinderry2,566Antrim South2391959440013570101,593
Lisburn and CastlereaghBallymacash2,231Antrim South1561129520014133181,385
Lisburn and CastlereaghBallymacbrennan2,064Down Mid197508010013193261,280
Lisburn and CastlereaghBallymacoss3,065Antrim South2151531,3080019183251,903
Lisburn and CastlereaghBlaris2,177Antrim South339747090014190261,352
Lisburn and CastlereaghDerryaghy2,844Belfast West23015498000116251341,765
Lisburn and CastlereaghDromara2,386Down Mid228589260015223311,481
Lisburn and CastlereaghDrumbo2,077Belfast South199508070013194271,290
Lisburn and CastlereaghHarmony Hill2,205Antrim South1781207590090195271,369
Lisburn and CastlereaghHilden2,634Antrim South21314390700107233321,635
Lisburn and CastlereaghHillhall2,553Antrim South244629910016239331,585
Lisburn and CastlereaghHillsborough2,234Down Mid347777270015194271,387
Lisburn and CastlereaghKnockmore2,735Antrim South1921361,1670017163221,697
Lisburn and CastlereaghLagan2,172Antrim South338747070014189261,348
Lisburn and CastlereaghLagan Valley2,436Antrim South1711211,0400015145201,512
Lisburn and CastlereaghLambeg2,416Belfast West1951318330098213291,499
Lisburn and CastlereaghLisnagarvey2,219Antrim South1561109470014133181,378
Lisburn and CastlereaghMaghaberry2,914Antrim South2712221,0720015479111,809
Lisburn and CastlereaghMagheralave2,275Antrim South1831247840093201271,412
Lisburn and CastlereaghMaze2,064Antrim South321716720014180251,283
Lisburn and CastlereaghMoira2,679Antrim South416928720018233321,663
Lisburn and CastlereaghOld Warren2,865Antrim South2011431,2230018170231,778
Lisburn and CastlereaghRavernet2,103Down Mid201518160013198271,306
Lisburn and CastlereaghStonyford344Antrim South3226127001891213
Lisburn and CastlereaghWallace Park2,847Antrim South23015498100116251341,766
Lisburn and CastlereaghWhite Mountain3,198Antrim South2982431,1770016987121,986
Newry, Mourne and DownBallyward132Down South820420084082
 Total72,380 7,5353,38726,761001,5694,99568444,931

The full details of these calculations are given on the Lagan Valley seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Strangford

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Strangford, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: StrangfordTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatUUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Lisburn and CastlereaghCarryduff East408Belfast South14281370415444246
Lisburn and CastlereaghKnockbracken178Belfast South61260027192108
Lisburn and CastlereaghMoneyreagh1,985Belfast South58197740629252221,196
Newry, Mourne and DownBallynahinch3,042Down Mid2892081,074029112111101,833
Newry, Mourne and DownCrossgar and Killyleagh1,884Down South179129665018696961,135
Newry, Mourne and DownDerryboy2,488Down Mid237170878023919181,498
Newry, Mourne and DownKilmore2,777Down Mid26419098002610210291,673
Newry, Mourne and DownSaintfield2,848Down Mid2711951,00502710510491,716
North Down and ArdsBallygowan2,942Down Mid246291,10102614327291,772
North Down and ArdsBallywalter3,120Down North1762311,281026847571,880
North Down and ArdsCarrowdore2,061Down North116152846017555041,240
North Down and ArdsComber North2,691Down Mid226261,00702413298271,621
North Down and ArdsComber South2,551Down Mid2142595502212283251,536
North Down and ArdsComber West2,619Down Mid2202698002313291261,579
North Down and ArdsConway Square2,969Down Mid166311,06502615446401,789
North Down and ArdsCronstown3,193Down Mid179331,14502816480431,924
North Down and ArdsGlen2,976Down Mid167311,06702615447401,793
North Down and ArdsGregstown2,454Down Mid1372588002113369331,478
North Down and ArdsKillinchy2,425Down Mid2042490802112269241,462
North Down and ArdsKircubbin3,001Down North1692221,233025807261,807
North Down and ArdsLoughries1,408Down North7910457801238343848
North Down and ArdsMovilla3,054Down Mid171321,09602616459411,841
North Down and ArdsPortaferry2,653Down North1501961,090022716461,599
North Down and ArdsPortavogie2,799Down North1582071,149023766761,686
North Down and ArdsScrabo2,688Down Mid1502896502314404361,620
North Down and ArdsWest Winds3,116Down Mid174321,11802716468421,877
 Total64,330 4,4202,40524,03706091,0835,69550838,757

The full details of these calculations are given on the Strangford seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Belfast South

The new seat of Belfast South is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Belfast South
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old Seat UUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
BelfastBelvoir265Lagan Valley1335810014193165
BelfastBelvoir2,735Belfast South6651565505625825181,809
BelfastBlackstaff4,153Belfast South875807660250336705222,746
BelfastCentral177Belfast West014190057205115
BelfastCentral6,647Belfast South1399281,22504015381,128354,394
BelfastCregagh1,561Belfast East426672044427891,055
BelfastCregagh1,365Belfast South35284213020320301903
BelfastFinaghy2,684Belfast South6550564305525324681,775
BelfastMalone2,779Belfast South6752366605726125581,837
BelfastMusgrave2,997Belfast South7256471806128227591,981
BelfastOrmeau3,872Belfast South815417130234313657202,559
BelfastRavenhill2,862Belfast South735944470436716321,893
BelfastRosetta3,352Belfast South856975230507857322,215
BelfastStranmillis4,849Belfast South1016778940292392823253,204
BelfastUpper Malone2,801Belfast South6852767105726325781,851
BelfastWindsor6,402Belfast South1348941,18003855181,087344,232
BelfastWoodstock48Belfast East10210019032
BelfastWoodstock3,611Belfast South927505640548467922,387
Lisburn and CastlereaghBeechill2,210Belfast South53394523033119328101,460
Lisburn and CastlereaghCairnshill1,868Belfast South4533344302810127791,236
Lisburn and CastlereaghCarryduff East408Strangford14281370415444246
Lisburn and CastlereaghCarryduff East1,737Belfast South423104120269425781,149
Lisburn and CastlereaghCarryduff West2,049Belfast South4936548503111130491,354
Lisburn and CastlereaghDrumbo2,077Lagan Valley199508070013194271,290
Lisburn and CastlereaghGalwally1,912Belfast South4634145302910328391,264
Lisburn and CastlereaghKnockbracken178Strangford61260027192108
Lisburn and CastlereaghKnockbracken1,904Belfast South4634045102910328291,260
Lisburn and CastlereaghMoneyreagh1,985Strangford58197740629252221,196
Lisburn and CastlereaghNewtownbreda1,675Belfast South402993970259024881,107
 Total71,163 1,81911,12515,61302,2886,9178,74331846,823

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Belfast South. Please note that the wards used are those of 2015 in order to be consistent with those used by the Boundary Commissions.


© 2019 Electoral Calculus Ltd
Powered by TigerLib (28-Feb-2019 15:34)