Belfast South: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Belfast South: Overview

 Projection: DUP seat 

Implied MP at 2017: Emma Little Pengelly  (DUP)
County/Area: Antrim (Northern Ireland)
Electorate: 71,163
Turnout: 65.8%

 Implied 2017 VotesImplied 2017 Share
DUP15,17832.4%
SDLP11,29524.1%
Alliance8,68018.5%
SF7,22715.4%
Green2,2974.9%
UUP1,8363.9%
OTH2960.6%
MIN170.0%
DUP Majority3,8838.3%

See overview of other seats in Northern Ireland.

Belfast South : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Belfast South constituency, the 'Northern Ireland' area and nation.

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat Northern IrelandAll UK
Party WinnerDUPDUPCON
EU Leave %32%44%52%
British Identity36%40%29%
Good Health52%48%48%
UK Born88%93%88%
Good Education55%36%39%
Good Job62%47%51%
High SEC64%57%51%
Average Age44.047.248.4
ABC1 Class66%45%53%

Belfast South ranks #563 for "Leave", out of 600 new seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Belfast South: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Belfast South been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

List of old seats forming part of Belfast South

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Belfast East

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Belfast East, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Belfast EastTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatUUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
Alliance
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
BelfastBallymacarrett3,761Belfast East97231,42683361230332,541
BelfastBeersbridge4,430Belfast East11331,682985261440392,992
BelfastBelmont3,347Belfast East7581,1001,00536110262,261
BelfastBloomfield4,135Belfast East97231,4661,012401230332,794
BelfastConnswater3,913Belfast East96121,438911321220332,644
BelfastCregagh1,561Belfast South33855938515420111,053
BelfastGarnerville3,159Belfast East7231,05793134110252,133
BelfastGilnahirk3,481Belfast East8521,23494640150292,351
BelfastHillfoot1,430Belfast East3075583211228010966
BelfastKnock3,520Belfast East72171,0611,15834110252,378
BelfastMerok3,010Belfast East65141,28958217440222,033
BelfastOrangefield3,255Belfast East68161,25877831230232,197
BelfastSandown3,092Belfast East7421,08684535210252,088
BelfastShandon3,516Belfast East8321,2061,00139150282,374
BelfastStormont3,398Belfast East74171,0841,04835110252,294
BelfastSydenham3,583Belfast East9021,382782181150312,420
BelfastWoodstock48Belfast South101811010031
Lisburn and CastlereaghBallyhanwood1,914Belfast East4018743401960141,294
Lisburn and CastlereaghCarrowreagh2,554Belfast East4611,1754512680191,726
Lisburn and CastlereaghDundonald2,082Belfast East4319543662060151,405
Lisburn and CastlereaghEnler2,215Belfast East3311,0363802270161,495
Lisburn and CastlereaghGraham's Bridge2,090Belfast East2019763692270161,411
 Total63,494 1,40716423,91915,440559894049842,881

The full details of these calculations are given on the Belfast East seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Belfast South

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Belfast South, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Belfast SouthTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatUUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
Alliance
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
BelfastBelvoir2,735Belfast South79374859236332160111,808
BelfastBlackstaff4,153Belfast South1285111,2713711892580182,746
BelfastCentral6,647Belfast South691,0219235883341,4330264,394
BelfastCregagh1,365Belfast South351444011833010405902
BelfastFinaghy2,684Belfast South69530528165294450101,776
BelfastHillfoot1,642Belfast East431735451993287061,085
BelfastMalone2,779Belfast South6273935728683302091,838
BelfastMerok0 000000000
BelfastMusgrave2,997Belfast South53638434167326470111,982
BelfastOrmeau3,872Belfast South477515165902673760142,561
BelfastRavenhill2,862Belfast South613586145801261430101,892
BelfastRosetta3,352Belfast South685895195731353220112,217
BelfastStranmillis4,849Belfast South1329367455342785620183,205
BelfastUpper Malone2,801Belfast South77472752260452340111,851
BelfastWindsor6,402Belfast South1521,0651,0918994105910254,233
BelfastWoodstock3,611Belfast South110438954438733590152,387
Lisburn and CastlereaghBeechill2,210Belfast South5840950631424143081,462
Lisburn and CastlereaghCairnshill1,868Belfast South4737236826420157071,235
Lisburn and CastlereaghCarryduff East1,737Belfast South4628543419720161061,149
Lisburn and CastlereaghCarryduff West2,049Belfast South5239441126122208071,355
Lisburn and CastlereaghGalwally1,912Belfast South4838937628620138071,264
Lisburn and CastlereaghKnockbracken1,904Belfast South4540932728020171071,259
Lisburn and CastlereaghNewtownbreda1,675Belfast South433103672771887061,108
 Total66,106 1,52411,30713,2987,9482,2407,144024843,709

The full details of these calculations are given on the Belfast South seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Belfast West

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Belfast West, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Belfast WestTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatUUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
Alliance
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
BelfastAndersonstown3,137Belfast West01571912901,467184152,043
BelfastBallygomartin3,887Belfast West0408754901,132401342,531
BelfastBallymurphy3,386Belfast West0991991701,591275232,204
BelfastBeechmount3,815Belfast West01472323901,756284242,482
BelfastCentral177Belfast South013187059171115
BelfastClonard3,807Belfast West02393942101,397394332,478
BelfastCollin Glen3,849Belfast West01592362001,808260222,505
BelfastDunmurry2,813Belfast West022216811301,2685651,832
BelfastFalls3,431Belfast West01893701901,242381322,233
BelfastFalls Park3,153Belfast West01781883501,474163142,052
BelfastForth River2,435Belfast West025551220712254211,585
BelfastLadybrook3,384Belfast West022218510901,5889182,203
BelfastLagmore5,089Belfast West03142807302,460171143,312
BelfastPoleglass4,163Belfast West01992353402,032194162,710
BelfastShankill2,144Belfast West022486170628224191,396
BelfastShaw's Road3,416Belfast West01502091701,612217182,223
BelfastStewartstown3,451Belfast West02161894301,68210892,247
BelfastTurf Lodge3,351Belfast West0941971601,563287242,181
BelfastTwinbrook3,232Belfast West01731834801,549139122,104
BelfastWoodvale306Belfast West03685089313199
 Total62,426 02,8615,454733027,1094,13134740,635

The full details of these calculations are given on the Belfast West seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Lagan Valley

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Lagan Valley, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Lagan ValleyTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatUUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
Alliance
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonDonaghcloney75Upper Bann142264010148
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonDromore3,215Down Mid5101121,0832110500301,996
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonGransha2,493Down Mid4151058069701030221,548
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonQuilly2,989Down Mid5201011,0031250790271,855
BelfastBelvoir265Belfast South1328792801503166
BelfastDunmurry908Belfast West521082627905409564
Lisburn and CastlereaghBallinderry2,566Antrim South22313995815001020221,594
Lisburn and CastlereaghBallymacash2,231Antrim South1921328801460150191,384
Lisburn and CastlereaghBallymacbrennan2,064Down Mid199508251730150191,281
Lisburn and CastlereaghBallymacoss3,065Antrim South2231241,3171890220281,903
Lisburn and CastlereaghBlaris2,177Antrim South330607951230190241,351
Lisburn and CastlereaghDerryaghy2,844Belfast West17528383527301710271,764
Lisburn and CastlereaghDromara2,386Down Mid220599931680180231,481
Lisburn and CastlereaghDrumbo2,077Belfast South208487462550140191,290
Lisburn and CastlereaghHarmony Hill2,205Antrim South20815470917501020201,368
Lisburn and CastlereaghHilden2,634Antrim South191731,00417901610281,636
Lisburn and CastlereaghHillhall2,553Antrim South195651,0532250200261,584
Lisburn and CastlereaghHillsborough2,234Down Mid404856871730170211,387
Lisburn and CastlereaghKnockmore2,735Antrim South1791671,1591480200251,698
Lisburn and CastlereaghLagan2,172Antrim South396707361080170221,349
Lisburn and CastlereaghLagan Valley2,436Antrim South1391051,0891370180241,512
Lisburn and CastlereaghLambeg2,416Belfast West213649841710420251,499
Lisburn and CastlereaghLisnagarvey2,219Antrim South156140948980160201,378
Lisburn and CastlereaghMaghaberry2,914Antrim South290911,1801570670251,810
Lisburn and CastlereaghMagheralave2,275Antrim South15316173122801150221,410
Lisburn and CastlereaghMaze2,064Antrim South370526781450160211,282
Lisburn and CastlereaghMoira2,679Antrim South4001658062460200261,663
Lisburn and CastlereaghOld Warren2,865Antrim South1381521,3231140220291,778
Lisburn and CastlereaghRavernet2,103Down Mid267487991580140191,305
Lisburn and CastlereaghStonyford344Antrim South26261251302003213
Lisburn and CastlereaghWallace Park2,847Antrim South2471609932760640271,767
Lisburn and CastlereaghWhite Mountain3,198Antrim South2602341,11621601330261,985
Newry, Mourne and DownBallyward132Down South918379070181
 Total72,380 7,5353,38126,7654,99701,569068344,930

The full details of these calculations are given on the Lagan Valley seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Strangford

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Strangford, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: StrangfordTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatUUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
Alliance
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Lisburn and CastlereaghCarryduff East408Belfast South13301255231903245
Lisburn and CastlereaghKnockbracken178Belfast South41351291801107
Lisburn and CastlereaghMoneyreagh1,985Belfast South832182916470120161,195
Newry, Mourne and DownBallynahinch3,042Down Mid2212331,033143281500231,831
Newry, Mourne and DownCrossgar and Killyleagh1,884Down South14114162910117910141,134
Newry, Mourne and DownDerryboy2,488Down Mid241176794134221140181,499
Newry, Mourne and DownKilmore2,777Down Mid30919792514225530211,672
Newry, Mourne and DownSaintfield2,848Down Mid28620290525025270201,715
North Down and ArdsBallygowan2,942Down Mid290331,12525625190251,773
North Down and ArdsBallywalter3,120Down North1671571,29919226170221,880
North Down and ArdsCarrowdore2,061Down North10910484214417110141,241
North Down and ArdsComber North2,691Down Mid251311,07919423180241,620
North Down and ArdsComber South2,551Down Mid2282892629521170221,537
North Down and ArdsComber West2,619Down Mid2232994731722170221,577
North Down and ArdsConway Square2,969Down Mid122411,19035127240321,787
North Down and ArdsCronstown3,193Down Mid226391,20637128230301,923
North Down and ArdsGlen2,976Down Mid187371,11437826220281,792
North Down and ArdsGregstown2,454Down Mid1943095523522180241,478
North Down and ArdsKillinchy2,425Down Mid2282682832420150201,461
North Down and ArdsKircubbin3,001Down North1162451,08217725158051,808
North Down and ArdsLoughries1,408Down North6478566111118010848
North Down and ArdsMovilla3,054Down Mid128411,19439327240321,839
North Down and ArdsPortaferry2,653Down North8525394313622158031,600
North Down and ArdsPortavogie2,799Down North1171451,21115422160201,685
North Down and ArdsScrabo2,688Down Mid2303196932323190241,619
North Down and ArdsWest Winds3,116Down Mid154421,26932629250321,877
 Total64,330 4,4172,40324,0365,6926071,083050538,743

The full details of these calculations are given on the Strangford seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Belfast South

The new seat of Belfast South is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Belfast South
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old Seat UUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
Alliance
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
BelfastBelvoir265Lagan Valley1328792801503166
BelfastBelvoir2,735Belfast South79374859236332160111,808
BelfastBlackstaff4,153Belfast South1285111,2713711892580182,746
BelfastCentral177Belfast West013187059171115
BelfastCentral6,647Belfast South691,0219235883341,4330264,394
BelfastCregagh1,561Belfast East33855938515420111,053
BelfastCregagh1,365Belfast South351444011833010405902
BelfastFinaghy2,684Belfast South69530528165294450101,776
BelfastMalone2,779Belfast South6273935728683302091,838
BelfastMusgrave2,997Belfast South53638434167326470111,982
BelfastOrmeau3,872Belfast South477515165902673760142,561
BelfastRavenhill2,862Belfast South613586145801261430101,892
BelfastRosetta3,352Belfast South685895195731353220112,217
BelfastStranmillis4,849Belfast South1329367455342785620183,205
BelfastUpper Malone2,801Belfast South77472752260452340111,851
BelfastWindsor6,402Belfast South1521,0651,0918994105910254,233
BelfastWoodstock48Belfast East101811010031
BelfastWoodstock3,611Belfast South110438954438733590152,387
Lisburn and CastlereaghBeechill2,210Belfast South5840950631424143081,462
Lisburn and CastlereaghCairnshill1,868Belfast South4737236826420157071,235
Lisburn and CastlereaghCarryduff East408Strangford13301255231903245
Lisburn and CastlereaghCarryduff East1,737Belfast South4628543419720161061,149
Lisburn and CastlereaghCarryduff West2,049Belfast South5239441126122208071,355
Lisburn and CastlereaghDrumbo2,077Lagan Valley208487462550140191,290
Lisburn and CastlereaghGalwally1,912Belfast South4838937628620138071,264
Lisburn and CastlereaghKnockbracken178Strangford41351291801107
Lisburn and CastlereaghKnockbracken1,904Belfast South4540932728020171071,259
Lisburn and CastlereaghMoneyreagh1,985Strangford832182916470120161,195
Lisburn and CastlereaghNewtownbreda1,675Belfast South433103672771887061,108
 Total71,163 1,83611,29515,1788,6802,2977,2271729646,826

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Belfast South. Please note that the wards used are those of 2015 in order to be consistent with those used by the Boundary Commissions.


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