Bolsover: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Bolsover: Overview

 Projection: LAB seat 

Implied MP at 2017: Dennis Skinner  (LAB)
County/Area: Derbyshire (East Midlands)
Electorate: 77,745
Turnout: 64.4%

 Implied 2017 VotesImplied 2017 Share
LAB25,83451.6%
CON20,79241.5%
UKIP1,7363.5%
LIB1,3922.8%
Green1890.4%
OTH1410.3%
LAB Majority5,04210.1%

See overview of other seats in East Midlands.

Bolsover : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Bolsover constituency, the 'East Midlands' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatEast MidlandsAll GB
Party WinnerLABCONCON
Economic Position9° Left4° Right
National Position15° Nat8° Nat
EU Leave %70%59%52%
British Identity21%27%29%
Good Health41%45%48%
UK Born97%91%88%
Good Education27%36%39%
Good Job40%48%51%
High SEC37%47%51%
Average Age49.849.148.5
ABC1 Class39%50%53%

Bolsover ranks #22 for "Leave", #462 for "Right" and #66 for "National" out of 600 new seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Bolsover: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Bolsover been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

List of old seats forming part of Bolsover

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Amber Valley

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Amber Valley, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Amber ValleyTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Amber ValleyAlfreton6,172Bolsover2,0131,92410207500404,154
Amber ValleyCodnor and Waingroves3,754Amber Valley1,3291,0565202100692,527
Amber ValleyHeage and Ambergate3,829Amber Valley1,6238115805400312,577
Amber ValleyHeanor and Loscoe4,122Amber Valley1,4461,1987502600282,773
Amber ValleyHeanor West4,682Amber Valley1,6451,33310903400303,151
Amber ValleyIronville and Riddings4,442Amber Valley1,5421,3504702300282,990
Amber ValleyLangley Mill and Aldercar4,172Amber Valley1,4091,2776702800272,808
Amber ValleyRipley6,766Amber Valley2,6461,66410808900474,554
Amber ValleyRipley and Marehay4,621Amber Valley1,8131,1307006100353,109
Amber ValleySomercotes4,912Bolsover1,5141,6616903000323,306
Amber ValleySwanwick3,935Bolsover1,7467216105100692,648
Amber ValleyWingfield1,749Amber Valley8822392302100121,177
Amber ValleyHeanor East4,549Amber Valley1,5651,3617402800333,061
Amber ValleyKilburn, Denby and Holbrook5,965Amber Valley2,6901,1009708500424,014
Amber ValleyShipley Park, Horsley and Horsley Woodhouse4,394Amber Valley2,0417808702200272,957
 Total68,064 25,90417,6051,09906480055045,806

The full details of these calculations are given on the Amber Valley seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Bolsover

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Bolsover, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: BolsoverTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
BolsoverBarlborough2,532Bolsover761737515400001,603
BolsoverBlackwell3,421Bolsover8491,169688100002,167
BolsoverBolsover North West3,129Bolsover7351,120557300001,983
BolsoverBolsover South3,106Bolsover7421,093617200001,968
BolsoverBolsover West2,860Bolsover6699185417000001,811
BolsoverClowne North3,118Bolsover7861,055617300001,975
BolsoverClowne South2,782Bolsover755885556800001,763
BolsoverPinxton3,320Bolsover7811,170708300002,104
BolsoverPleasley2,975Bolsover7441,017537000001,884
BolsoverScarcliffe3,232Bolsover7711,150497700002,047
BolsoverShirebrook East1,318Bolsover27246124780000835
BolsoverShirebrook Langwith1,491Bolsover31751422920000945
BolsoverShirebrook North West1,955Bolsover423743274500001,238
BolsoverShirebrook South East1,696Bolsover3735672610900001,075
BolsoverShirebrook South West2,025Bolsover446742455000001,283
BolsoverSouth Normanton East3,582Bolsover8711,240728600002,269
BolsoverSouth Normanton West4,884Bolsover1,2121,66710311100003,093
BolsoverTibshelf3,757Bolsover1,0421,163789700002,380
North East DerbyshireHolmewood and Heath2,873Derbyshire North East724976576300001,820
North East DerbyshirePilsley and Morton3,987Derbyshire North East1,2481,107759500002,525
North East DerbyshireShirland4,342Derbyshire North East1,3831,0886521500002,751
North East DerbyshireSutton3,177Derbyshire North East931939697300002,012
BolsoverElmton-with-Creswell4,892Bolsover1,1811,7366911300003,099
BolsoverWhitwell2,979Bolsover850896628000001,888
 Total73,433 18,86624,1531,3712,128000046,518

The full details of these calculations are given on the Bolsover seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Derbyshire North East

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Derbyshire North East, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Derbyshire North EastTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
ChesterfieldBarrow Hill and New Whittington4,630Chesterfield1,3271,390243221560003,237
ChesterfieldLowgates and Woodthorpe3,672Bolsover9391,4855554330002,566
North East DerbyshireAshover1,484Derbyshire North East7742191517120001,037
North East DerbyshireBarlow and Holmesfield1,513Derbyshire North East7142541955150001,057
North East DerbyshireBrampton and Walton2,904Derbyshire North East1,4404234396270002,029
North East DerbyshireClay Cross North4,559Derbyshire North East1,2991,59874169450003,185
North East DerbyshireClay Cross South3,007Derbyshire North East7431,2394941290002,101
North East DerbyshireCoal Aston2,618Derbyshire North East1,1025604988300001,829
North East DerbyshireDronfield North3,246Derbyshire North East1,1279976445360002,269
North East DerbyshireDronfield South4,206Derbyshire North East1,7331,0099258480002,940
North East DerbyshireDronfield Woodhouse2,782Derbyshire North East1,2705495737310001,944
North East DerbyshireEckington North2,856Derbyshire North East85193457124300001,996
North East DerbyshireEckington South2,995Derbyshire North East8011,1814044260002,092
North East DerbyshireGosforth Valley3,992Derbyshire North East1,7208898752430002,791
North East DerbyshireGrassmoor3,044Derbyshire North East7491,18945115280002,126
North East DerbyshireKillamarsh East2,990Derbyshire North East9081,0704144270002,090
North East DerbyshireKillamarsh West4,481Derbyshire North East1,2101,7268567430003,131
North East DerbyshireNorth Wingfield Central4,553Derbyshire North East1,3011,7126268400003,183
North East DerbyshireRenishaw2,141Derbyshire North East6587563529170001,495
North East DerbyshireRidgeway and Marsh Lane1,447Derbyshire North East5514092017130001,010
North East DerbyshireTupton3,138Derbyshire North East9071,1585445290002,193
North East DerbyshireUnstone1,488Derbyshire North East5314472521160001,040
North East DerbyshireWingerworth4,351Derbyshire North East2,1317287859440003,040
 Total72,097 24,78621,9221,3891,56671800050,381

The full details of these calculations are given on the Derbyshire North East seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Bolsover

The new seat of Bolsover is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Bolsover
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old Seat CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Amber ValleyAlfreton6,172Amber Valley2,0131,92410207500404,154
Amber ValleySomercotes4,912Amber Valley1,5141,6616903000323,306
Amber ValleySwanwick3,935Amber Valley1,7467216105100692,648
BolsoverBarlborough2,532Bolsover761737515400001,603
BolsoverBlackwell3,421Bolsover8491,169688100002,167
BolsoverBolsover North West3,129Bolsover7351,120557300001,983
BolsoverBolsover South3,106Bolsover7421,093617200001,968
BolsoverBolsover West2,860Bolsover6699185417000001,811
BolsoverClowne North3,118Bolsover7861,055617300001,975
BolsoverClowne South2,782Bolsover755885556800001,763
BolsoverElmton-with-Creswell4,892Bolsover1,1811,7366911300003,099
BolsoverPinxton3,320Bolsover7811,170708300002,104
BolsoverPleasley2,975Bolsover7441,017537000001,884
BolsoverScarcliffe3,232Bolsover7711,150497700002,047
BolsoverShirebrook East1,318Bolsover27246124780000835
BolsoverShirebrook Langwith1,491Bolsover31751422920000945
BolsoverShirebrook North West1,955Bolsover423743274500001,238
BolsoverShirebrook South East1,696Bolsover3735672610900001,075
BolsoverShirebrook South West2,025Bolsover446742455000001,283
BolsoverSouth Normanton East3,582Bolsover8711,240728600002,269
BolsoverSouth Normanton West4,884Bolsover1,2121,66710311100003,093
BolsoverTibshelf3,757Bolsover1,0421,163789700002,380
BolsoverWhitwell2,979Bolsover850896628000001,888
ChesterfieldLowgates and Woodthorpe3,672Derbyshire North East9391,4855554330002,566
 Total77,745 20,79225,8341,3921,7361890014150,084

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Bolsover. Please note that the wards used are those of 2015 in order to be consistent with those used by the Boundary Commissions.


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