Brecon, Radnor and Montgomery: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Brecon, Radnor and Montgomery: Overview

 Projection: CON seat 

Implied MP at 2017: Chris Davies  (CON)
County/Area: Powys (Wales)
Electorate: 80,622
Turnout: 72.3%

 Implied 2017 VotesImplied 2017 Share
CON28,86449.5%
LIB16,21927.8%
LAB10,09917.3%
Plaid2,2453.9%
UKIP5791.0%
Green2530.4%
CON Majority12,64521.7%

See overview of other seats in Wales.

Brecon, Radnor and Montgomery : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Brecon, Radnor and Montgomery constituency, the 'Wales' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatWalesAll GB
Party WinnerCONLABCON
Economic Position3° Right10° Left
National Position3° Int3° Int1° Int
EU Leave %53%53%52%
British Identity30%26%29%
Good Health45%47%48%
UK Born96%95%88%
Good Education38%36%39%
Good Job43%46%51%
High SEC46%46%51%
Average Age53.249.648.5
ABC1 Class45%47%53%

Brecon, Radnor and Montgomery ranks #315 for "Leave", #270 for "Right" and #418 for "National" out of 600 new seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Brecon, Radnor and Montgomery: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Brecon, Radnor and Montgomery been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

List of old seats forming part of Brecon, Radnor and Montgomery

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Brecon and Radnorshire

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Brecon and Radnorshire, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Brecon and RadnorshireTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Plaid
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
PowysAber-craf1,151Brecon, Radnor and Montgomery3372951831402100850
PowysBeguildy1,181Brecon, Radnor and Montgomery4671222171405200872
PowysBronllys1,018Brecon, Radnor and Montgomery438881871102700751
PowysBuilth2,081Brecon, Radnor and Montgomery63322061421048001,536
PowysBwlch771Brecon, Radnor and Montgomery26739240501800569
PowysCrickhowell2,352Brecon, Radnor and Montgomery75016976121036001,737
PowysCwm-twrch1,654Brecon, Radnor and Montgomery49043824721025001,221
PowysDisserth and Trecoed1,025Brecon, Radnor and Montgomery409982281101200758
PowysFelin-fch1,101Brecon, Radnor and Montgomery517911641103000813
PowysGlasbury1,845Brecon, Radnor and Montgomery91611026915052001,362
PowysGwernyfed1,242Brecon, Radnor and Montgomery582931881104300917
PowysHay1,304Brecon, Radnor and Montgomery6011161931104300964
PowysKnighton2,446Brecon, Radnor and Montgomery81225064926068001,805
PowysLlanafanfawr1,118Brecon, Radnor and Montgomery490812061103700825
PowysLlanbadarn Fawr924Brecon, Radnor and Montgomery391911681002100681
PowysLlandrindod East / Llandrindod West996Brecon, Radnor and Montgomery3001162961001300735
PowysLlandrindod North1,650Brecon, Radnor and Montgomery60127128822035001,217
PowysLlandrindod South1,630Brecon, Radnor and Montgomery62116737718020001,203
PowysLlanelwedd957Brecon, Radnor and Montgomery30461304803000707
PowysLlangattock813Brecon, Radnor and Montgomery29961219701400600
PowysLlangors867Brecon, Radnor and Montgomery32153240701800639
PowysLlangunllo989Brecon, Radnor and Montgomery42083184903400730
PowysLlanwrtyd Wells1,511Brecon, Radnor and Montgomery52014038715053001,115
PowysLlanyre919Brecon, Radnor and Montgomery397811721101600677
PowysMaescar / Llywel1,391Brecon, Radnor and Montgomery59612724116047001,027
PowysNantmel1,210Brecon, Radnor and Montgomery576911851102900892
PowysOld Radnor1,276Brecon, Radnor and Montgomery448853641103300941
PowysPresteigne2,196Brecon, Radnor and Montgomery80322551724052001,621
PowysRhayader1,677Brecon, Radnor and Montgomery49022947616027001,238
PowysSt David Within1,451Brecon, Radnor and Montgomery42538022317027001,072
PowysSt John2,698Brecon, Radnor and Montgomery73971644330063001,991
PowysSt Mary2,521Brecon, Radnor and Montgomery78338860425060001,860
PowysTalgarth1,370Brecon, Radnor and Montgomery40311444113039001,010
PowysTawe-Uchaf1,719Brecon, Radnor and Montgomery54941825620027001,270
PowysYnyscedwyn1,589Brecon, Radnor and Montgomery48740324121021001,173
PowysYscir818Brecon, Radnor and Montgomery28348245602200604
PowysYstradgynlais2,151Brecon, Radnor and Montgomery58561333127032001,588
PowysLlangynidr830Brecon, Radnor and Montgomery34955187701400612
PowysTalybont-on-Usk1,568Brecon, Radnor and Montgomery68610930815040001,158
 Total56,010 20,0857,33512,04357901,2990041,341

The full details of these calculations are given on the Brecon and Radnorshire seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Montgomeryshire

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Montgomeryshire, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: MontgomeryshireTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Plaid
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
PowysBanwy792Clwyd South and North Montgomeryshire286841290103600545
PowysBerriew1,096Clwyd South and North Montgomeryshire420991740114900753
PowysBlaen Hafren1,873Brecon, Radnor and Montgomery84813622001866001,288
PowysCaersws1,860Brecon, Radnor and Montgomery72019027702072001,279
PowysChurchstoke1,268Brecon, Radnor and Montgomery373973490124200873
PowysDolforwyn1,574Brecon, Radnor and Montgomery63614522701559001,082
PowysForden1,152Brecon, Radnor and Montgomery509891500103400792
PowysGlantwymyn1,622Ceredigion and North Pembrokeshire57716926801982001,115
PowysGuilsfield1,854Clwyd South and North Montgomeryshire68818230602177001,274
PowysKerry1,636Brecon, Radnor and Montgomery67614022401569001,124
PowysLlanbrynmair730Ceredigion and North Pembrokeshire26581116083100501
PowysLlandinam1,118Brecon, Radnor and Montgomery4121101820135200769
PowysLlandrinio1,727Clwyd South and North Montgomeryshire65817327401665001,186
PowysLlandysilio1,398Clwyd South and North Montgomeryshire5271462250135000961
PowysLlanfair Caereinion1,435Clwyd South and North Montgomeryshire4621393120146000987
PowysLlanfihangel852Clwyd South and North Montgomeryshire33778132083100586
PowysLlanfyllin1,219Clwyd South and North Montgomeryshire5001221550134900839
PowysLlanidloes2,292Brecon, Radnor and Montgomery80627737202991001,575
PowysLlanwddyn825Clwyd South and North Montgomeryshire30186130094200568
PowysLlanrhaeadr-ym-Mochnant / Llansilin1,773Clwyd South and North Montgomeryshire78613021001677001,219
PowysLlansantffraid1,539Clwyd South and North Montgomeryshire67712419801444001,057
PowysMachynlleth1,784Ceredigion and North Pembrokeshire54626631302676001,227
PowysMeifod1,046Clwyd South and North Montgomeryshire3961011610115000719
PowysMontgomery1,095Brecon, Radnor and Montgomery4081111790134200753
PowysNewtown Central2,618Brecon, Radnor and Montgomery99638033102666001,799
PowysNewtown East1,639Brecon, Radnor and Montgomery321211438017139001,126
PowysNewtown Llanllwchaiarn North1,798Brecon, Radnor and Montgomery45817053201858001,236
PowysNewtown Llanllwchaiarn West1,441Brecon, Radnor and Montgomery6141341880144000990
PowysNewtown South1,507Brecon, Radnor and Montgomery34440323301640001,036
PowysRhiwcynon1,741Brecon, Radnor and Montgomery65817127401776001,196
PowysTrewern1,130Clwyd South and North Montgomeryshire4501091700103700776
PowysWelshpool Castle1,250Clwyd South and North Montgomeryshire3892102010144500859
PowysWelshpool Gungrog2,251Clwyd South and North Montgomeryshire57028061402064001,548
PowysWelshpool Llanerchyddol1,819Clwyd South and North Montgomeryshire45720152601749001,250
 Total50,754 18,0715,5448,79005231,9600034,888

The full details of these calculations are given on the Montgomeryshire seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Brecon, Radnor and Montgomery

The new seat of Brecon, Radnor and Montgomery is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Brecon, Radnor and Montgomery
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old Seat CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Plaid
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
PowysAber-craf1,151Brecon and Radnorshire3372951831402100850
PowysBeguildy1,181Brecon and Radnorshire4671222171405200872
PowysBlaen Hafren1,873Montgomeryshire84813622001866001,288
PowysBronllys1,018Brecon and Radnorshire438881871102700751
PowysBuilth2,081Brecon and Radnorshire63322061421048001,536
PowysBwlch771Brecon and Radnorshire26739240501800569
PowysCaersws1,860Montgomeryshire72019027702072001,279
PowysChurchstoke1,268Montgomeryshire373973490124200873
PowysCrickhowell2,352Brecon and Radnorshire75016976121036001,737
PowysCwm-twrch1,654Brecon and Radnorshire49043824721025001,221
PowysDisserth and Trecoed1,025Brecon and Radnorshire409982281101200758
PowysDolforwyn1,574Montgomeryshire63614522701559001,082
PowysFelin-fch1,101Brecon and Radnorshire517911641103000813
PowysForden1,152Montgomeryshire509891500103400792
PowysGlasbury1,845Brecon and Radnorshire91611026915052001,362
PowysGwernyfed1,242Brecon and Radnorshire582931881104300917
PowysHay1,304Brecon and Radnorshire6011161931104300964
PowysKerry1,636Montgomeryshire67614022401569001,124
PowysKnighton2,446Brecon and Radnorshire81225064926068001,805
PowysLlanafanfawr1,118Brecon and Radnorshire490812061103700825
PowysLlanbadarn Fawr924Brecon and Radnorshire391911681002100681
PowysLlandinam1,118Montgomeryshire4121101820135200769
PowysLlandrindod East / Llandrindod West996Brecon and Radnorshire3001162961001300735
PowysLlandrindod North1,650Brecon and Radnorshire60127128822035001,217
PowysLlandrindod South1,630Brecon and Radnorshire62116737718020001,203
PowysLlanelwedd957Brecon and Radnorshire30461304803000707
PowysLlangattock813Brecon and Radnorshire29961219701400600
PowysLlangors867Brecon and Radnorshire32153240701800639
PowysLlangunllo989Brecon and Radnorshire42083184903400730
PowysLlangynidr830Brecon and Radnorshire34955187701400612
PowysLlanidloes2,292Montgomeryshire80627737202991001,575
PowysLlanwrtyd Wells1,511Brecon and Radnorshire52014038715053001,115
PowysLlanyre919Brecon and Radnorshire397811721101600677
PowysMaescar / Llywel1,391Brecon and Radnorshire59612724116047001,027
PowysMontgomery1,095Montgomeryshire4081111790134200753
PowysNantmel1,210Brecon and Radnorshire576911851102900892
PowysNewtown Central2,618Montgomeryshire99638033102666001,799
PowysNewtown East1,639Montgomeryshire321211438017139001,126
PowysNewtown Llanllwchaiarn North1,798Montgomeryshire45817053201858001,236
PowysNewtown Llanllwchaiarn West1,441Montgomeryshire6141341880144000990
PowysNewtown South1,507Montgomeryshire34440323301640001,036
PowysOld Radnor1,276Brecon and Radnorshire448853641103300941
PowysPresteigne2,196Brecon and Radnorshire80322551724052001,621
PowysRhayader1,677Brecon and Radnorshire49022947616027001,238
PowysRhiwcynon1,741Montgomeryshire65817127401776001,196
PowysSt David Within1,451Brecon and Radnorshire42538022317027001,072
PowysSt John2,698Brecon and Radnorshire73971644330063001,991
PowysSt Mary2,521Brecon and Radnorshire78338860425060001,860
PowysTalgarth1,370Brecon and Radnorshire40311444113039001,010
PowysTalybont-on-Usk1,568Brecon and Radnorshire68610930815040001,158
PowysTawe-Uchaf1,719Brecon and Radnorshire54941825620027001,270
PowysYnyscedwyn1,589Brecon and Radnorshire48740324121021001,173
PowysYscir818Brecon and Radnorshire28348245602200604
PowysYstradgynlais2,151Brecon and Radnorshire58561333127032001,588
 Total80,622 28,86410,09916,2195792532,2450058,259

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Brecon, Radnor and Montgomery.


© 2018 Electoral Calculus Ltd
Powered by TigerLib (14-Sep-2018 15:32)