Montgomeryshire: Seat Details

Montgomeryshire: Overview

Prediction: CON hold

MP at 2019:Craig Williams  (CON)
County/Area:Powys (Wales)
Electorate:48,997
Turnout:69.8%

Party2019
Votes
2019
Share
Pred
Votes
CON20,02058.5%36.8%
LIB7,88223.0%13.4%
LAB5,58516.3%27.8%
OTH7272.1%0.0%
Reform00.0%12.6%
Green00.0%3.6%
Plaid00.0%5.9%
CON Majority12,13835.5%9.1%
Pred Maj
Chance of winning
CON
73%
LIB
0%
LAB
26%
OTH
0%
Reform
1%
Green
0%
Plaid
0%

Montgomeryshire : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Montgomeryshire constituency, the 'Wales' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2021 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat WalesAll GB
Party Winner 2019CONLABCON
Party Winner 2017CONLABCON
Party Winner 2015CONLABCON
Economic Position7° Right8° Left
National Position9° Nat
Social Position3° Con2° Lib
TribeCentrists
EU Leave %57%53%52%
Average Age54.351.149.5
Good Education48%49%49%
Employed57%53%58%
Homeowner68%67%63%
Car owner88%81%77%
Married48%44%45%
Ethnic White98%94%83%
Christian53%47%50%
ABC1 Class46%52%56%
Gross Household Income£36,798£36,386£42,397
Deprivation51%54%52%
Average House Price£217,453£193,404£313,528

Montgomeryshire ranks #251 for "Leave", #228 for "Economic Right Position", #169 for "National Position" and #286 for "Social Conservative Position" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions
View descriptions and colour schemes of the table

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class), 'Gross Household Income', 'Individual Disposable Income' and 'Average House Price' all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic Position Very Left Left Centrist Right Very Right
National Position Very Global Global Centrist National Very Nat
Social Position Very Lib Liberal Moderate Conservative Very Cons
EU Leave % Very Remain Remain Balanced Leave Very Leave
Census Very Low Low Medium High Very High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
Average AgeAge (TS007A)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
Good EducationHighest level of qualification (TS067)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
EmployedEconomic activity status (TS066)Part-time, full-time employed or self-employed
HomeownerTenure (TS054)Own a property with or without a mortgage, or with shared ownership
Car ownerCar or van availability (TS045)In a household with at least one car or van
MarriedLegal partnership status (TS002)Married or civil partnership
Ethnic WhiteEthnic group (TS021)White British, Irish, Gypsy, Roma or other
ChristianReligion (TS030)Christian or Christian denomination (NI)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (SG002)Approximated social grades A, B and C1
Gross Household IncomeMedian gross household income, including cash benefits, but before tax. Values as at 2018. Source: ONS Small area estimates (E&W), Scottish Government (Scotland), plus additional Electoral Calculus modelling.
DeprivationHouseholds by deprivation dimensions (TS011)Fraction of households which are classed as deprived on one or more of the following four indicators: employment (unemployed or long-term sick); education (no good GCSE); health and disability (bad health or long-term problem); and housing (overcrowded, shared or no central heating).
Average House PriceAverage residential property price (including flats and houses) around 2019. Sources: Land Registry, Statistics Scotland, NI Department of Finance

Montgomeryshire: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2022, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors


Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Montgomeryshire

This table shows the predicted future general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Montgomeryshire.

MontgomeryshireActualPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
GE19
Winner
Pred
Winner
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
Reform
Votes
Green
Votes
Plaid
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
PowysBanwy, Llanfihangel and Llanwddyn1,748CONCON4543101461543970001,173
PowysBerriew and Castle Careinion1,596CONCON4252741181353658001,046
PowysCaersws1,781CONCON4982931261574161001,176
PowysChurchstoke1,252CONCON323200122108274900829
PowysDolforwyn1,642CONCON4632771051373758001,077
PowysForden and Montgomery1,935CONCON4953521501614675001,279
PowysGlantwymyn1,613CONCON4192651341343563001,050
PowysGuilsfield1,358CONCON379230116114315000920
PowysKerry1,416CONCON37625799118345200936
PowysLlanbrynmair1,488CONCON4322601031323652001,015
PowysLlandinam with Dolfor1,293CONCON35922199113304700869
PowysLlandrinio1,693CONCON4772621511413957001,127
PowysLlandysilio1,424CONCON369258109117345400941
PowysLlanfair Caereinion and Llanerfyl1,612CONCON4022871371423861001,067
PowysLlanfyllin1,184CONCON2992157698284500761
PowysLlangyniew and Meifod1,562CONCON4652461051343458001,042
PowysLlanidloes3,326CONCON63462442325084123002,138
PowysLlanrhaeadr-ym-Mochnant and Llansilin1,791CONCON5412831091503861001,182
PowysLlansantffraid1,578CONCON4272681281293751001,040
PowysMachynlleth1,686CONLAB3073501411323978001,047
PowysNewtown Central and South3,524CONLAB46476626323880142001,953
PowysNewtown East1,488CONLAB235280119111297900853
PowysNewtown North1,777CONCON4042632171333867001,122
PowysNewtown West1,417CONCON296268143101355000893
PowysRhiwcynon1,706CONCON4423031311453966001,126
PowysTrelystan and Trewern1,378CONCON37723889111324900896
PowysWelshpool Castle1,647CONLAB243318165120356500946
PowysWelshpool Gungrog1,598CONLAB253294206113366300965
PowysWelshpool Llanerchyddol1,484CONCON294254165110325700912
 Total48,997CONCON11,5528,7164,1953,9381,1191,8610031,381

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official. The wards used are those of 2023.


© 2024 Electoral Calculus Ltd
Powered by TigerLib (19-Feb-2024 16:41, Py3L, sc4256)