Montgomeryshire: Seat Details

Montgomeryshire: Overview

Prediction: CON hold

MP at 2019:Craig Williams  (CON)
County/Area:Powys (Wales)
Electorate:48,997
Turnout:69.8%

Party2019
Votes
2019
Share
Pred
Votes
CON20,02058.5%52.1%
LIB7,88223.0%16.8%
LAB5,58516.3%19.3%
OTH7272.1%4.9%
Reform00.0%0.6%
Green00.0%6.4%
CON Majority12,13835.5%32.8%
Pred Maj
Chance of winning
CON
98%
LIB
0%
LAB
1%
OTH
0%
Reform
0%
Green
0%

Montgomeryshire : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Montgomeryshire constituency, the 'Wales' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat WalesAll GB
Party Winner 2019CONLABCON
Party Winner 2017CONLABCON
Party Winner 2015CONLABCON
Economic Position7° Right8° Left
National Position9° Nat
Social Position3° Con2° Lib
TribeCentrists
EU Leave %57%53%52%
British Identity30%26%29%
Good Health45%47%48%
UK Born96%94%87%
Good Education36%37%39%
Good Job41%46%51%
High SEC44%46%51%
Average Age52.449.548.3
ABC1 Class42%48%54%
Average House Price£217,453£194,381£309,875

Montgomeryshire ranks #251 for "Leave", #228 for "Right", #169 for "National" and #286 for "Social" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions
View the colour scheme used in the table above

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) and 'Average House Price' all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic Position Very Left Left Centrist Right Very Right
National Position Very Global Global Centrist National Very Nat
Social Position Very Lib Liberal Moderate Conservative Very Cons
EU Leave % Very Remain Remain Balanced Leave Very Leave
Census Very Low Low Medium High Very High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1
Average House PriceAverage residential house price around 2019. Sources: Land Registry, Statistics Scotland, NI Department of Finance

Montgomeryshire: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2020, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors


Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Montgomeryshire

This table shows the predicted future general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Montgomeryshire.

MontgomeryshireActualPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
GE19
Winner
Pred
Winner
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
Reform
Votes
Green
Votes
Plaid
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
PowysBanwy845CONCON301124864380037590
PowysBerriew1,100CONCON4361381025500038769
PowysBlaen Hafren1,872CONCON71521322298500651,309
PowysCaersws1,827CONCON76820516988200441,276
PowysChurchstoke1,289CONCON4791801216580056900
PowysDolforwyn1,649CONCON71018713176900481,152
PowysForden1,212CONCON497136965510061846
PowysGlantwymyn1,697CONCON69219916387700471,186
PowysGuilsfield1,823CONCON71423417288300631,274
PowysKerry1,604CONCON62920614777200591,120
PowysLlanbrynmair796CONCON311108653340034555
PowysLlandinam1,153CONCON4571451035510044805
PowysLlandrinio1,759CONCON71816119988000621,228
PowysLlandysilio1,438CONCON54219813266500611,004
PowysLlanfair Caereinion1,298CONCON4851881226590047907
PowysLlanfihangel893CONCON345116804400039624
PowysLlanfyllin1,214CONCON4851571055530044849
PowysLlanidloes2,144CONCON534297491109700681,497
PowysLlanrhaeadr-ym-Mochnant / Llansilin1,811CONCON82017714287500421,264
PowysLlansantffraid1,560CONCON60217418877100471,089
PowysLlanwddyn844CONCON330112754370032590
PowysMachynlleth1,697CONCON52631919587700611,186
PowysMeifod1,067CONCON49199784430031746
PowysMontgomery1,105CONCON4071561135500041772
PowysNewtown Central2,118CONCON546353424109600511,480
PowysNewtown East1,398CONCON4342731476630050973
PowysNewtown Llanllwchaiarn North1,792CONCON64420526888100441,250
PowysNewtown Llanllwchaiarn West1,444CONCON44318325976600511,009
PowysNewtown South1,212CONCON4122371025520037845
PowysRhiwcynon1,720CONCON65323515687700731,202
PowysTrewern1,064CONCON440131895460033744
PowysWelshpool Castle960CONCON2301761864440031671
PowysWelshpool Gungrog1,991CONCON51531839199000651,388
PowysWelshpool Llanerchyddol1,599CONCON50925521777300561,117
 Total48,995CONCON17,8206,5955,7362192,185001,66234,217

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official. The wards used are those of 2021.


© 2021 Electoral Calculus Ltd
Powered by TigerLib (15-Oct-2021 13:04, Py3L, sc1148)