Montgomeryshire: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Montgomeryshire: Overview

 Predicted winner: CON 
 Acual winner: CON 

MP at 2019: Craig Williams  (CON)
County/Area: Powys (Wales)
Electorate: 48,997
Turnout: 69.8%
2019
Votes
2019
Share
Predicted
Votes
CON20,02058.5%54.3%
LIB7,88223.0%21.3%
LAB5,58516.3%23.9%
OTH7272.1%0.5%
CON Majority12,13835.5%Pred Maj 30.4%
Chance of
winning
CON
90%
LIB
3%
LAB
7%
OTH
0%

Montgomeryshire : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Montgomeryshire constituency, the 'Wales' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat WalesAll GB
Party Winner 2019CONLABCON
Party Winner 2017CONLABCON
Party Winner 2015CONLABCON
Economic Position7° Right9° Left
National Position9° Nat
Social Position3° Con2° Lib
TribeCentrists
EU Leave %57%53%52%
British Identity30%26%29%
Good Health45%47%48%
UK Born96%95%88%
Good Education36%36%39%
Good Job41%46%51%
High SEC44%46%51%
Average Age52.449.648.5
ABC1 Class42%47%54%

Montgomeryshire ranks #251 for "Leave", #228 for "Right", #169 for "National" and #286 for "Social" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery GlobalGlobalCentristNationalVery Nat
Social PositionVery LibLiberalModerateConservativeVery Cons
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Montgomeryshire: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

Montgomeryshire: Ward-by-ward

Workings for Montgomeryshire

This section gives an estimate of the votes cast in each ward of Montgomeryshire at the general election of 2019. The official ward breakdowns are not officially tabulated or published, so these numbers are only approximate. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2019, and also to predict how they will vote at the next election. These estimates are based both on the recent local election results and the Census 2011 demography in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Usuallly each ward lies entirely within a single constituency, but some large wards are split between several constituencies (particularly in Scotland and Northern Ireland). The electorate figure shown is the estimate of the electorate which is common to both the constituency and the particular ward, and can be very small.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are a few problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Because not all parties have a candidate in each ward, and sometimes there is only a single candidate elected unopposed, the local election results can understate a party's true support. To correct for this, we also use Census demography to make an alternative estimate of how the ward voted in the general election, based on any demographic differences between the ward and the seat overall.

Both method are then combined together, and the votes are subject to a final adjustment to make sure that the totals over the wards add up to the general election seat total, as they must.

Raw vote and Estimated General Election vote

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the seat of Montgomeryshire. The first block shows the actual results. The second block shows the estimated general election votes for each ward after all the processes are complete.

MontgomeryshireActual Results
DistrictWardElection
Year
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Plaid
Votes
OTH
Votes
PowysBanwy2012000000-1
PowysBerriew2012000000-1
PowysBlaen Hafren2012-1000000
PowysCaersws201230900000528
PowysChurchstoke201200273000333
PowysDolforwyn201230800000468
PowysForden201225400000257
PowysGlantwymyn2012000000-1
PowysGuilsfield2012000000-1
PowysKerry201230800000334
PowysLlanbrynmair20128100000329
PowysLlandinam2012000000623
PowysLlandrinio2012000000-1
PowysLlandysilio20128700000404
PowysLlanfair Caereinion20120012210800300
PowysLlanfihangel2012000000-1
PowysLlanfyllin2012-1000000
PowysLlanidloes201230600000661
PowysLlanrhaeadr-ym-Mochnant / Llansilin2012-1000000
PowysLlansantffraid2012441006500244
PowysLlanwddyn2012000000-1
PowysMachynlleth2012000000-1
PowysMeifod2012000000-1
PowysMontgomery20127100000374
PowysNewtown Central2012-1000000
PowysNewtown East2012103026600870
PowysNewtown Llanllwchaiarn North201218905240000
PowysNewtown Llanllwchaiarn West2012-1000000
PowysNewtown South2012278542000177
PowysRhiwcynon2012000000934
PowysTrewern201215900000290
PowysWelshpool Castle20126100000290
PowysWelshpool Gungrog201224204450000
PowysWelshpool Llanerchyddol201200355000358

The raw results and adjusted for turnout and combined with the implied results from the Census Demography calculation, and then adjusted to match the general election totals. The results of these calculations are shown in the table below.

MontgomeryshireEst. 2019 General Election Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
Brexit
Votes
Green
Votes
Plaid
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
PowysBanwy76531681126000011534
PowysBerriew1,05845498171000016739
PowysBlaen Hafren1,8088351352660000271,263
PowysCaersws1,7967811792680000271,255
PowysChurchstoke1,224467112257000018854
PowysDolforwyn1,5206631352410000231,062
PowysForden1,11250586169000016776
PowysGlantwymyn1,5666411682610000231,093
PowysGuilsfield1,7907541762940000271,251
PowysKerry1,5797121342330000231,102
PowysLlanbrynmair70529474114000010492
PowysLlandinam1,079457105176000016754
PowysLlandrinio1,6677111562730000251,165
PowysLlandysilio1,350571134217000020942
PowysLlanfair Caereinion1,385560140247000021968
PowysLlanfihangel82336171131000012575
PowysLlanfyllin1,177510128166000017821
PowysLlanidloes2,2138952823360000331,546
PowysLlanrhaeadr-ym-Mochnant / Llansilin1,7127761422530000251,196
PowysLlansantffraid1,4866771222160000221,037
PowysLlanwddyn79633482128000012556
PowysMachynlleth1,7226312772700000261,204
PowysMeifod1,01042398169000015705
PowysMontgomery1,057436111175000016738
PowysNewtown Central2,5271,0293883100000371,764
PowysNewtown East1,5825042832940000231,104
PowysNewtown Llanllwchaiarn North1,7366092043730000261,212
PowysNewtown Llanllwchaiarn West1,391599143209000021972
PowysNewtown South1,4554593541820000221,017
PowysRhiwcynon1,6817231572690000251,174
PowysTrewern1,09147899169000016762
PowysWelshpool Castle1,207452212161000018843
PowysWelshpool Gungrog2,1737782974100000321,517
PowysWelshpool Llanerchyddol1,7566282223500000261,226
 Total48,99920,0235,5857,884000072734,219

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Montgomeryshire

This table shows the predicted general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Montgomeryshire.

MontgomeryshirePredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
Brexit
Votes
Green
Votes
Plaid
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
PowysBanwy76529312111700003534
PowysBerriew1,05842315415800004739
PowysBlaen Hafren1,808781231244000061,262
PowysCaersws1,796728275246000061,255
PowysChurchstoke1,22443117724200004854
PowysDolforwyn1,520618216223000051,062
PowysForden1,11247214515600004777
PowysGlantwymyn1,566595251242000051,093
PowysGuilsfield1,790701271272000061,250
PowysKerry1,579665217214000051,101
PowysLlanbrynmair70527311110500002491
PowysLlandinam1,07942516216300004754
PowysLlandrinio1,667661245253000061,165
PowysLlandysilio1,35053120620100005943
PowysLlanfair Caereinion1,38551921423000005968
PowysLlanfihangel82333711512100003576
PowysLlanfyllin1,17747519015200004821
PowysLlanidloes2,213829400309000081,546
PowysLlanrhaeadr-ym-Mochnant / Llansilin1,712725233232000061,196
PowysLlansantffraid1,486633201198000051,037
PowysLlanwddyn79631012411800003555
PowysMachynlleth1,722580369249000061,204
PowysMeifod1,01039315215700004706
PowysMontgomery1,05740516716200004738
PowysNewtown Central2,527954518283000091,764
PowysNewtown East1,582457367275000051,104
PowysNewtown Llanllwchaiarn North1,736557296352000061,211
PowysNewtown Llanllwchaiarn West1,39155821719200005972
PowysNewtown South1,455416430166000051,017
PowysRhiwcynon1,681673246249000061,174
PowysTrewern1,09144615715600004763
PowysWelshpool Castle1,20741627614700004843
PowysWelshpool Gungrog2,173714412384000081,518
PowysWelshpool Llanerchyddol1,756576315329000061,226
 Total48,99918,5708,1817,297000017134,219

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official. The wards used are those of 2015, to match those used by the Boundary Commissions.


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