Montgomeryshire: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Montgomeryshire: Overview

 Prediction: CON hold 

MP at 2019: Craig Williams  (CON)
County/Area: Powys (Wales)
Electorate: 48,997
Turnout: 69.8%
2019
Votes
2019
Share
Predicted
Votes
CON20,02058.5%57.2%
LIB7,88223.0%13.8%
LAB5,58516.3%22.7%
OTH7272.1%5.1%
Green00.0%1.1%
CON Majority12,13835.5%Pred Maj 34.6%
Chance of
winning
CON
99%
LIB
0%
LAB
1%
OTH
0%
Green
0%

Montgomeryshire : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Montgomeryshire constituency, the 'Wales' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat WalesAll GB
Party Winner 2019CONLABCON
Party Winner 2017CONLABCON
Party Winner 2015CONLABCON
Economic Position7° Right8° Left
National Position9° Nat
Social Position3° Con2° Lib
TribeCentrists
EU Leave %57%53%52%
British Identity30%26%29%
Good Health45%47%48%
UK Born96%94%87%
Good Education36%37%39%
Good Job41%46%51%
High SEC44%46%51%
Average Age52.449.548.3
ABC1 Class42%48%54%

Montgomeryshire ranks #251 for "Leave", #228 for "Right", #169 for "National" and #286 for "Social" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery GlobalGlobalCentristNationalVery Nat
Social PositionVery LibLiberalModerateConservativeVery Cons
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Montgomeryshire: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2020, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Montgomeryshire

This table shows the predicted future general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Montgomeryshire.

MontgomeryshireActualPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
GE19
Winner
Pred
Winner
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
Brexit
Votes
Green
Votes
Plaid
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
PowysBanwy867CONCON34114968070040605
PowysBerriew1,093CONCON47416378090040764
PowysBlaen Hafren1,847CONCON77525517901500661,290
PowysCaersws1,790CONCON81924312701500471,251
PowysChurchstoke1,277CONCON523209920100058892
PowysDolforwyn1,635CONCON76421610001200481,140
PowysForden1,126CONCON50414968080057786
PowysGlantwymyn1,605CONCON71522612001300481,122
PowysGuilsfield1,838CONCON78928113301500661,284
PowysKerry1,561CONCON67123710901300601,090
PowysLlanbrynmair767CONCON32811948060034535
PowysLlandinam1,142CONCON49517078090045797
PowysLlandrinio1,690CONCON75319515401400641,180
PowysLlandysilio1,428CONCON5912301010120064998
PowysLlanfair Caereinion1,298CONCON533219940110050907
PowysLlanfihangel893CONCON37813762070039623
PowysLlanfyllin1,181CONCON51517778090044823
PowysLlanidloes2,182CONCON62635545201800731,524
PowysLlanrhaeadr-ym-Mochnant / Llansilin1,785CONCON87620810801300421,247
PowysLlansantffraid1,543CONCON65320915201300501,077
PowysLlanwddyn841CONCON35913057070034587
PowysMachynlleth1,711CONCON59436415901400651,196
PowysMeifod1,086CONCON53911961070032758
PowysMontgomery1,095CONCON44318287090042763
PowysNewtown Central2,249CONCON66242840201900581,569
PowysNewtown East1,498CONCON52233012601200571,047
PowysNewtown Llanllwchaiarn North1,768CONCON70124422701500471,234
PowysNewtown Llanllwchaiarn West1,431CONCON49121722501200551,000
PowysNewtown South1,258CONCON47327382090040877
PowysRhiwcynon1,682CONCON70027011701300741,174
PowysTrewern1,092CONCON49215770080035762
PowysWelshpool Castle1,042CONCON287217179090035727
PowysWelshpool Gungrog1,962CONCON58036234301600681,369
PowysWelshpool Llanerchyddol1,735CONCON61631919801400641,211
 Total48,998CONCON19,5827,7594,7340393001,74134,209

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official. The wards used are those of 2020.


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