Devizes and East Wiltshire: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Devizes and East Wiltshire: Overview

 Projection: CON seat 

Implied MP at 2017: Claire Perry  (CON)
County/Area: Wiltshire (South West)
Electorate: 80,545
Turnout: 71.3%

 Implied 2017 VotesImplied 2017 Share
CON Majority22,67739.5%

See overview of other seats in South West.

Devizes and East Wiltshire : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Devizes and East Wiltshire constituency, the 'South West' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatSouth WestAll GB
Economic Position13° Right8° Right
National Position7° Nat4° Nat
Social Position2° Con
TribeStrong Right
EU Leave %54%53%52%
British Identity29%27%29%
Good Health51%47%48%
UK Born92%92%88%
Good Education42%40%39%
Good Job55%50%51%
High SEC58%52%51%
Average Age49.550.548.5
ABC1 Class58%54%53%

Devizes and East Wiltshire ranks #281 for "Leave", #76 for "Right", #212 for "National" and #289 for "Social" out of 600 new seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery GlobalGlobalCentristNationalVery Nat
Social PositionVery LibLiberalModerateConservativeVery Cons
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Devizes and East Wiltshire: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015


This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Devizes and East Wiltshire been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

List of old seats forming part of Devizes and East Wiltshire

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Devizes

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Devizes, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: DevizesTransfer-adjusted Results
New SeatCON
WiltshireAldbourne and Ramsbury3,894Devizes and East Wiltshire1,905448197739000162,729
WiltshireBromham, Rowde and Potterne3,622Devizes and East Wiltshire1,575487183208810042,538
WiltshireBulford, Allington and Figheldean3,679Salisbury1,810421184747400172,580
WiltshireBurbage and the Bedwyns3,606Devizes and East Wiltshire1,74348616059750052,528
WiltshireDevizes and Roundway South3,236Devizes and East Wiltshire1,219608262738700192,268
WiltshireDevizes East3,038Devizes and East Wiltshire1,069720183707400142,130
WiltshireDevizes North3,041Devizes and East Wiltshire1,021747194698000202,131
WiltshireDurrington and Larkhill5,493Salisbury2,0986838391161090063,851
WiltshireLudgershall and Perham Down4,370Devizes and East Wiltshire2,081582209908800133,063
WiltshireMarlborough East3,013Devizes and East Wiltshire1,099505345678100152,112
WiltshireMarlborough West3,229Devizes and East Wiltshire1,435432218699400172,265
WiltshirePewsey3,455Devizes and East Wiltshire1,457641174637600102,421
WiltshirePewsey Vale3,328Devizes and East Wiltshire1,44640835357660032,333
WiltshireRoundway3,404Devizes and East Wiltshire1,504530192687900132,386
WiltshireSummerham and Seend1,111Trowbridge and West Wiltshire525121515723002779
WiltshireThe Collingbournes and Netheravon3,094Devizes and East Wiltshire1,57033613955640052,169
WiltshireThe Lavingtons and Erlestoke4,354Devizes and East Wiltshire1,92972521581970053,052
WiltshireTidworth6,831Devizes and East Wiltshire3,44373931313112900334,788
WiltshireUrchfont and The Cannings3,184Devizes and East Wiltshire1,312513153177710052,231
WiltshireWest Selkley3,199Devizes and East Wiltshire1,50347814151680032,244
 Total72,181 31,74410,6104,7051,7081,6060022550,598

The full details of these calculations are given on the Devizes seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Wiltshire North

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Wiltshire North, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Wiltshire NorthTransfer-adjusted Results
New SeatCON
WiltshireBox and Colerne4,211Chippenham and North Wiltshire1,776503749286600453,167
WiltshireBrinkworth3,608Chippenham and North Wiltshire1,884392317445500212,713
WiltshireBy Brook3,642Chippenham and North Wiltshire1,960368306425200102,738
WiltshireCalne Central3,364Devizes and East Wiltshire1,156578659586300172,531
WiltshireCalne Chilvester and Abberd4,096Devizes and East Wiltshire1,623727575657600143,080
WiltshireCalne North3,862Devizes and East Wiltshire1,328647780606800232,906
WiltshireCalne Rural3,525Devizes and East Wiltshire1,831397273515400452,651
WiltshireCalne South and Cherhill3,800Devizes and East Wiltshire1,653491566566700262,859
WiltshireChippenham Cepen Park and Redlands64Chippenham and North Wiltshire271361100048
WiltshireChippenham Hardens and England21Chippenham and North Wiltshire7440000015
WiltshireCorsham Pickwick219Trowbridge and West Wiltshire82522334001165
WiltshireCorsham Without and Box Hill1,828Trowbridge and West Wiltshire86827816824310061,375
WiltshireCricklade and Latton4,020Chippenham and North Wiltshire1,654500762276600143,023
WiltshireKington3,975Chippenham and North Wiltshire2,081423363486100132,989
WiltshireLyneham4,412Chippenham and North Wiltshire2,273535380595700143,318
WiltshireMalmesbury4,364Chippenham and North Wiltshire1,592650877598000243,282
WiltshireMinety3,827Chippenham and North Wiltshire1,996437316515800202,878
WiltshirePurton3,437Chippenham and North Wiltshire1,848361272254200372,585
WiltshireSherston3,836Chippenham and North Wiltshire2,043433328215000102,885
WiltshireRoyal Wootton Bassett East3,562Chippenham and North Wiltshire1,768416408255100112,679
WiltshireRoyal Wootton Bassett North3,583Chippenham and North Wiltshire1,410589563596300122,696
WiltshireRoyal Wootton Bassett South4,152Chippenham and North Wiltshire1,538604826667400143,122
 Total71,408 32,3989,3989,5218721,1390037753,705

The full details of these calculations are given on the Wiltshire North seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Devizes and East Wiltshire

The new seat of Devizes and East Wiltshire is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Devizes and East Wiltshire
Old Seat CON
WiltshireAldbourne and Ramsbury3,894Devizes1,905448197739000162,729
WiltshireBromham, Rowde and Potterne3,622Devizes1,575487183208810042,538
WiltshireBurbage and the Bedwyns3,606Devizes1,74348616059750052,528
WiltshireCalne Central3,364Wiltshire North1,156578659586300172,531
WiltshireCalne Chilvester and Abberd4,096Wiltshire North1,623727575657600143,080
WiltshireCalne North3,862Wiltshire North1,328647780606800232,906
WiltshireCalne Rural3,525Wiltshire North1,831397273515400452,651
WiltshireCalne South and Cherhill3,800Wiltshire North1,653491566566700262,859
WiltshireDevizes and Roundway South3,236Devizes1,219608262738700192,268
WiltshireDevizes East3,038Devizes1,069720183707400142,130
WiltshireDevizes North3,041Devizes1,021747194698000202,131
WiltshireLudgershall and Perham Down4,370Devizes2,081582209908800133,063
WiltshireMarlborough East3,013Devizes1,099505345678100152,112
WiltshireMarlborough West3,229Devizes1,435432218699400172,265
WiltshirePewsey Vale3,328Devizes1,44640835357660032,333
WiltshireThe Collingbournes and Netheravon3,094Devizes1,57033613955640052,169
WiltshireThe Lavingtons and Erlestoke4,354Devizes1,92972521581970053,052
WiltshireUrchfont and The Cannings3,184Devizes1,312513153177710052,231
WiltshireWest Selkley3,199Devizes1,50347814151680032,244
 Total80,545 34,90212,2256,4841,7511,7280032557,415

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Devizes and East Wiltshire. Please note that the wards used are those of 2015 in order to be consistent with those used by the Boundary Commissions.

© 2019 Electoral Calculus Ltd
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