Devizes: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Devizes: Overview

 Predicted winner: CON 
 Acual winner: CON 

MP at 2019: Danny Kruger  (CON)
County/Area: Wiltshire (South West)
Electorate: 73,379
Turnout: 69.4%
2019
Votes
2019
Share
Predicted
Votes
CON32,15063.1%60.5%
LIB8,15716.0%15.9%
LAB7,83815.4%19.9%
Green2,8095.5%3.8%
CON Majority23,99347.1%Pred Maj 40.6%
Chance of
winning
CON
98%
LIB
1%
LAB
1%
Green
0%

Devizes : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Devizes constituency, the 'South West' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat South WestAll GB
Party Winner 2019CONCONCON
Party Winner 2017CONCONCON
Party Winner 2015CONCONCON
Economic Position15° Right8° Right
National Position6° Nat4° Nat
Social Position2° Con
TribeStrong Right
EU Leave %54%53%52%
British Identity29%27%29%
Good Health52%47%48%
UK Born91%92%88%
Good Education42%40%39%
Good Job57%50%51%
High SEC59%52%51%
Average Age48.550.548.5
ABC1 Class60%54%54%

Devizes ranks #303 for "Leave", #64 for "Right", #236 for "National" and #309 for "Social" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery GlobalGlobalCentristNationalVery Nat
Social PositionVery LibLiberalModerateConservativeVery Cons
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Devizes: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

Devizes: Ward-by-ward

Workings for Devizes

This section gives an estimate of the votes cast in each ward of Devizes at the general election of 2019. The official ward breakdowns are not officially tabulated or published, so these numbers are only approximate. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2019, and also to predict how they will vote at the next election. These estimates are based both on the recent local election results and the Census 2011 demography in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Usuallly each ward lies entirely within a single constituency, but some large wards are split between several constituencies (particularly in Scotland and Northern Ireland). The electorate figure shown is the estimate of the electorate which is common to both the constituency and the particular ward, and can be very small.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are a few problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Because not all parties have a candidate in each ward, and sometimes there is only a single candidate elected unopposed, the local election results can understate a party's true support. To correct for this, we also use Census demography to make an alternative estimate of how the ward voted in the general election, based on any demographic differences between the ward and the seat overall.

Both method are then combined together, and the votes are subject to a final adjustment to make sure that the totals over the wards add up to the general election seat total, as they must.

Raw vote and Estimated General Election vote

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the seat of Devizes. The first block shows the actual results. The second block shows the estimated general election votes for each ward after all the processes are complete.

DevizesActual Results
DistrictWardElection
Year
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
OTH
Votes
WiltshireAldbourne and Ramsbury20139520000538
WiltshireBromham, Rowde and Potterne20136840054800
WiltshireBulford, Allington and Figheldean20134410000435
WiltshireBurbage and the Bedwyns20139912090000
WiltshireDevizes East2013436223000314
WiltshireDevizes North2013453233000395
WiltshireDevizes and Roundway South20134711828300642
WiltshireDurrington and Larkhill201330401,106000
WiltshireLudgershall and Perham Down2013-100000
WiltshireMarlborough East20133529112900526
WiltshireMarlborough West201346872000674
WiltshirePewsey20139353260000
WiltshirePewsey Vale2013808167280000
WiltshireRoundway2013678106000277
WiltshireSummerham and Seend20139830045600
WiltshireThe Collingbournes and Netheravon2013-100000
WiltshireThe Lavingtons and Erlestoke20131,0043060000
WiltshireTidworth2013-100000
WiltshireUrchfont and The Cannings2013660224044500
WiltshireWest Selkley20138302440000

The raw results and adjusted for turnout and combined with the implied results from the Census Demography calculation, and then adjusted to match the general election totals. The results of these calculations are shown in the table below.

DevizesEst. 2019 General Election Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
Brexit
Votes
Green
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
WiltshireAldbourne and Ramsbury3,9591,7873344730155002,749
WiltshireBromham, Rowde and Potterne3,6821,7323253650134002,556
WiltshireBulford, Allington and Figheldean3,7401,7503313740141002,596
WiltshireBurbage and the Bedwyns3,6661,6483394200139002,546
WiltshireDevizes East3,0881,2404843030117002,144
WiltshireDevizes North3,0911,1715612950119002,146
WiltshireDevizes and Roundway South3,2901,3244323970131002,284
WiltshireDurrington and Larkhill5,5842,3175408040217003,878
WiltshireLudgershall and Perham Down4,4432,0944333990160003,086
WiltshireMarlborough East3,0631,2163973940120002,127
WiltshireMarlborough West3,2831,3613474300141002,279
WiltshirePewsey3,5121,4704533810135002,439
WiltshirePewsey Vale3,3831,4492934770130002,349
WiltshireRoundway3,4601,4914003760135002,402
WiltshireSummerham and Seend1,1295298712804100785
WiltshireThe Collingbournes and Netheravon3,1451,4802513380115002,184
WiltshireThe Lavingtons and Erlestoke4,4261,9155004870171003,073
WiltshireTidworth6,9443,3136615900257004,821
WiltshireUrchfont and The Cannings3,2371,4363393490124002,248
WiltshireWest Selkley3,2521,4263283780126002,258
 Total73,37732,1497,8358,15802,8080050,950

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Devizes

This table shows the predicted general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Devizes.

DevizesPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
Brexit
Votes
Green
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
WiltshireAldbourne and Ramsbury3,9591,7144594700105002,748
WiltshireBromham, Rowde and Potterne3,6821,664437363091002,555
WiltshireBulford, Allington and Figheldean3,7401,681447372096002,596
WiltshireBurbage and the Bedwyns3,6661,581453418095002,547
WiltshireDevizes East3,0881,183580301080002,144
WiltshireDevizes North3,0911,114657293081002,145
WiltshireDevizes and Roundway South3,2901,264536395089002,284
WiltshireDurrington and Larkhill5,5842,2157168000148003,879
WiltshireLudgershall and Perham Down4,4432,0125683970109003,086
WiltshireMarlborough East3,0631,160494392082002,128
WiltshireMarlborough West3,2831,301455428096002,280
WiltshirePewsey3,5121,406563379092002,440
WiltshirePewsey Vale3,3831,387399474088002,348
WiltshireRoundway3,4601,428509374092002,403
WiltshireSummerham and Seend1,12950812212702800785
WiltshireThe Collingbournes and Netheravon3,1451,422347336078002,183
WiltshireThe Lavingtons and Erlestoke4,4261,8346394840116003,073
WiltshireTidworth6,9443,1868745870175004,822
WiltshireUrchfont and The Cannings3,2371,377440347084002,248
WiltshireWest Selkley3,2521,366430376086002,258
 Total73,37730,80310,1258,11301,9110050,952

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official. The wards used are those of 2015, to match those used by the Boundary Commissions.


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