Down Mid: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Down Mid: Overview

 Projection: DUP seat 

Implied MP at 2017: Jim Shannon  (DUP)
County/Area: Down (Northern Ireland)
Electorate: 76,120
Turnout: 61.4%

 Implied 2017 VotesImplied 2017 Share
DUP26,28156.2%
UUP7,93517.0%
MIN6,54514.0%
SDLP2,5095.4%
SF2,4795.3%
OTH6061.3%
Green3980.9%
DUP Majority18,34639.2%

See overview of other seats in Northern Ireland.

Down Mid: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Down Mid been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

List of old seats forming part of Down Mid

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Down South

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Down South, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Down SouthTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatUUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonBanbridge East775Down Mid2810219800171230522
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonGransha689Down Mid207422100128200463
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonLoughbrickland992Down South3513025300219290666
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonRathfriland3,319Down South118436847007339802,232
Newry, Mourne and DownAbbey240Newry and Armagh35619007670161
Newry, Mourne and DownAnnalong2,863Down South103595330008593901,926
Newry, Mourne and DownBallydugan2,543Down South71452375007377501,710
Newry, Mourne and DownBallyward2,639Down South74468390007657701,774
Newry, Mourne and DownBinnian2,827Down South101587326008493801,901
Newry, Mourne and DownBurren2,742Down South62761210007387201,843
Newry, Mourne and DownCastlewellan3,032Down South85538448008798902,039
Newry, Mourne and DownCathedral2,831Down South40946204006387601,904
Newry, Mourne and DownCrossgar and Killyleagh1,194Down South3817531000242380803
Newry, Mourne and DownDamolly560Newry and Armagh71314400177170376
Newry, Mourne and DownDerryboy412Down Mid13601070083130276
Newry, Mourne and DownDerryleckagh3,084Down South70856237008308102,074
Newry, Mourne and DownDonard2,681Down South96556309008053601,802
Newry, Mourne and DownDrumaness2,823Down South79501417008188301,898
Newry, Mourne and DownDundrum2,920Down South82519431008468601,964
Newry, Mourne and DownHilltown3,381Down South77939259009108802,273
Newry, Mourne and DownKilkeel2,708Down South97562311008143601,820
Newry, Mourne and DownKnocknashinna3,161Down South451,056227007138502,126
Newry, Mourne and DownLecale2,870Down South40959206006477701,929
Newry, Mourne and DownLisnacree3,291Down South118684379009884402,213
Newry, Mourne and DownMayobridge3,004Down South68834231008097802,020
Newry, Mourne and DownMurlough2,768Down South99574319008313701,860
Newry, Mourne and DownQuoile2,580Down South36863185005816901,734
Newry, Mourne and DownRostrevor3,226Down South74895248008688402,169
Newry, Mourne and DownSt Patrick's754Newry and Armagh91775900239230507
Newry, Mourne and DownStrangford2,655Down South37888191005987101,785
Newry, Mourne and DownTollymore2,772Down South99576319008333701,864
Newry, Mourne and DownWarrenpoint3,350Down South76930257009018702,251
 Total75,686 2,00017,8808,8670020,3251,813050,885

The full details of these calculations are given on the Down South seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Lagan Valley

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Lagan Valley, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Lagan ValleyTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatUUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonDonaghcloney75Upper Bann132260013045
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonDromore3,215Down Mid5441021,1320055143201,996
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonGransha2,493Down Mid423788780042111151,547
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonQuilly2,989Down Mid507941,0530051133181,856
BelfastBelvoir265Belfast South1335810014193165
BelfastDunmurry908Belfast West371103200060335565
Lisburn and CastlereaghBallinderry2,566Antrim South2391959440013570101,593
Lisburn and CastlereaghBallymacash2,231Antrim South1561129520014133181,385
Lisburn and CastlereaghBallymacbrennan2,064Down Mid197508010013193261,280
Lisburn and CastlereaghBallymacoss3,065Antrim South2151531,3080019183251,903
Lisburn and CastlereaghBlaris2,177Antrim South339747090014190261,352
Lisburn and CastlereaghDerryaghy2,844Belfast West23015498000116251341,765
Lisburn and CastlereaghDromara2,386Down Mid228589260015223311,481
Lisburn and CastlereaghDrumbo2,077Belfast South199508070013194271,290
Lisburn and CastlereaghHarmony Hill2,205Antrim South1781207590090195271,369
Lisburn and CastlereaghHilden2,634Antrim South21314390700107233321,635
Lisburn and CastlereaghHillhall2,553Antrim South244629910016239331,585
Lisburn and CastlereaghHillsborough2,234Down Mid347777270015194271,387
Lisburn and CastlereaghKnockmore2,735Antrim South1921361,1670017163221,697
Lisburn and CastlereaghLagan2,172Antrim South338747070014189261,348
Lisburn and CastlereaghLagan Valley2,436Antrim South1711211,0400015145201,512
Lisburn and CastlereaghLambeg2,416Belfast West1951318330098213291,499
Lisburn and CastlereaghLisnagarvey2,219Antrim South1561109470014133181,378
Lisburn and CastlereaghMaghaberry2,914Antrim South2712221,0720015479111,809
Lisburn and CastlereaghMagheralave2,275Antrim South1831247840093201271,412
Lisburn and CastlereaghMaze2,064Antrim South321716720014180251,283
Lisburn and CastlereaghMoira2,679Antrim South416928720018233321,663
Lisburn and CastlereaghOld Warren2,865Antrim South2011431,2230018170231,778
Lisburn and CastlereaghRavernet2,103Down Mid201518160013198271,306
Lisburn and CastlereaghStonyford344Antrim South3226127001891213
Lisburn and CastlereaghWallace Park2,847Antrim South23015498100116251341,766
Lisburn and CastlereaghWhite Mountain3,198Antrim South2982431,1770016987121,986
Newry, Mourne and DownBallyward132Down South820420084082
 Total72,380 7,5353,38726,761001,5694,99568444,931

The full details of these calculations are given on the Lagan Valley seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Strangford

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Strangford, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: StrangfordTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatUUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Lisburn and CastlereaghCarryduff East408Belfast South14281370415444246
Lisburn and CastlereaghKnockbracken178Belfast South61260027192108
Lisburn and CastlereaghMoneyreagh1,985Belfast South58197740629252221,196
Newry, Mourne and DownBallynahinch3,042Down Mid2892081,074029112111101,833
Newry, Mourne and DownCrossgar and Killyleagh1,884Down South179129665018696961,135
Newry, Mourne and DownDerryboy2,488Down Mid237170878023919181,498
Newry, Mourne and DownKilmore2,777Down Mid26419098002610210291,673
Newry, Mourne and DownSaintfield2,848Down Mid2711951,00502710510491,716
North Down and ArdsBallygowan2,942Down Mid246291,10102614327291,772
North Down and ArdsBallywalter3,120Down North1762311,281026847571,880
North Down and ArdsCarrowdore2,061Down North116152846017555041,240
North Down and ArdsComber North2,691Down Mid226261,00702413298271,621
North Down and ArdsComber South2,551Down Mid2142595502212283251,536
North Down and ArdsComber West2,619Down Mid2202698002313291261,579
North Down and ArdsConway Square2,969Down Mid166311,06502615446401,789
North Down and ArdsCronstown3,193Down Mid179331,14502816480431,924
North Down and ArdsGlen2,976Down Mid167311,06702615447401,793
North Down and ArdsGregstown2,454Down Mid1372588002113369331,478
North Down and ArdsKillinchy2,425Down Mid2042490802112269241,462
North Down and ArdsKircubbin3,001Down North1692221,233025807261,807
North Down and ArdsLoughries1,408Down North7910457801238343848
North Down and ArdsMovilla3,054Down Mid171321,09602616459411,841
North Down and ArdsPortaferry2,653Down North1501961,090022716461,599
North Down and ArdsPortavogie2,799Down North1582071,149023766761,686
North Down and ArdsScrabo2,688Down Mid1502896502314404361,620
North Down and ArdsWest Winds3,116Down Mid174321,11802716468421,877
 Total64,330 4,4202,40524,03706091,0835,69550838,757

The full details of these calculations are given on the Strangford seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Upper Bann

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Upper Bann, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Upper BannTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatUUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonAghagallon3,289Upper Bann199259725009041602,103
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonBallybay3,068Upper Bann2311071,0400044513901,962
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonBanbridge East2,172Down Mid385120583002396301,390
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonBanbridge North2,885Down Mid511159773003188301,844
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonBanbridge South3,166Down Mid560175849003499202,025
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonBanbridge West3,704Down Mid6562049930040810702,368
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonBleary3,054Upper Bann2441718680054212801,953
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonBrownlow4,257Upper Bann3412391,2100075417802,722
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonCorcrain3,548Upper Bann2681241,2020051416102,269
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonCraigavon Centre3,710Upper Bann2972081,0540065815602,373
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonDerrytrasna3,179Upper Bann2541789040056413302,033
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonDonaghcloney2,959Upper Bann410401,0370028312101,891
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonGilford3,251Upper Bann575180873003579402,079
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonKernan3,233Upper Bann2591819180057313602,067
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonKillycomain3,016Upper Bann2271051,0220043713701,928
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonKnocknashane2,836Upper Bann171223625007801401,813
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonLough Road3,334Upper Bann202263735009171602,133
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonLoughbrickland1,741Down South30896467001925001,113
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonMagheralin2,952Upper Bann178232650008121401,886
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonMahon3,151Upper Bann2381091,0680045714302,015
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonMourneview3,375Upper Bann204266744009281602,158
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonParklake3,558Upper Bann215280784009791702,275
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonShankill4,072Upper Bann247321897001,1192002,604
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonThe Birches3,206Upper Bann2421121,0860046514502,050
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonWaringstown3,452Upper Bann479471,2100033014102,207
 Total80,168 7,9014,39922,3170014,3242,320051,261

The full details of these calculations are given on the Upper Bann seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Down Mid

The new seat of Down Mid is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Down Mid
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old Seat UUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonBanbridge East775Down South2810219800171230522
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonBanbridge East2,172Upper Bann385120583002396301,390
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonBanbridge North2,885Upper Bann511159773003188301,844
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonBanbridge South3,166Upper Bann560175849003499202,025
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonBanbridge West3,704Upper Bann6562049930040810702,368
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonDromore3,215Lagan Valley5441021,1320055143201,996
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonGransha689Down South207422100128200463
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonGransha2,493Lagan Valley423788780042111151,547
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonQuilly2,989Lagan Valley507941,0530051133181,856
Lisburn and CastlereaghBallymacbrennan2,064Lagan Valley197508010013193261,280
Lisburn and CastlereaghDromara2,386Lagan Valley228589260015223311,481
Lisburn and CastlereaghHillsborough2,234Lagan Valley347777270015194271,387
Lisburn and CastlereaghRavernet2,103Lagan Valley201518160013198271,306
Newry, Mourne and DownBallynahinch3,042Strangford2892081,074029112111101,833
Newry, Mourne and DownDerryboy412Down South13601070083130276
Newry, Mourne and DownDerryboy2,488Strangford237170878023919181,498
Newry, Mourne and DownKilmore2,777Strangford26419098002610210291,673
Newry, Mourne and DownSaintfield2,848Strangford2711951,00502710510491,716
North Down and ArdsBallygowan2,942Strangford246291,10102614327291,772
North Down and ArdsComber North2,691Strangford226261,00702413298271,621
North Down and ArdsComber South2,551Strangford2142595502212283251,536
North Down and ArdsComber West2,619Strangford2202698002313291261,579
North Down and ArdsConway Square2,969Strangford166311,06502615446401,789
North Down and ArdsCronstown3,193Strangford179331,14502816480431,924
North Down and ArdsGlen2,976Strangford167311,06702615447401,793
North Down and ArdsGregstown2,454Strangford1372588002113369331,478
North Down and ArdsKillinchy2,425Strangford2042490802112269241,462
North Down and ArdsMovilla3,054Strangford171321,09602616459411,841
North Down and ArdsScrabo2,688Strangford1502896502314404361,620
North Down and ArdsWest Winds3,116Strangford174321,11802716468421,877
 Total76,120 7,9352,50926,28103982,4796,54560646,753

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Down Mid. Please note that the wards used are those of 2015 in order to be consistent with those used by the Boundary Commissions.


© 2019 Electoral Calculus Ltd
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