Down North: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Down North: Overview

Projection: DUP seat

Implied MP at 2017:Unknown (changed seat)  (DUP)
County/Area:Down (Northern Ireland)
Electorate:72,566
Turnout:60.8%

PartyImplied 2017 VotesImplied 2017 Share
DUP19,36843.9%
MIN14,77833.5%
Alliance3,9979.1%
Green2,1855.0%
SDLP1,3153.0%
OTH9702.2%
SF8311.9%
UUP6581.5%
DUP Majority4,59010.4%

See overview of other seats in Northern Ireland.



Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Down North been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

Down North: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

List of old seats forming part of Down North

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Down North

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Down North, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Down NorthTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatUUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
Alliance
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
BelfastGarnerville225Belfast East00482782463134
North Down and ArdsBallycrochan2,583Down North04540885016601361,335
North Down and ArdsBallygrainey3,179Down North06718135119251,020622,085
North Down and ArdsBallyholme2,870Down North0556315212224702431,611
North Down and ArdsBallymagee2,974Down North057281216921813491,806
North Down and ArdsBloomfield2,784Down North056311049820856521,766
North Down and ArdsBroadway2,748Down North0559612110721702421,594
North Down and ArdsBryansburn2,842Down North04151328312126558341,576
North Down and ArdsCarrowdore840Down North01230829951419513
North Down and ArdsCastle2,752Down North05624848518876531,745
North Down and ArdsClandeboye2,697Down North01668716116725524321,612
North Down and ArdsCultra2,894Down North03752525820428548331,633
North Down and ArdsDonaghadee2,869Down North05734875018840511,785
North Down and ArdsGroomsport2,836Down North046281045818709431,564
North Down and ArdsHarbour2,984Down North0555022716330973592,007
North Down and ArdsHelen's Bay2,770Down North03453623718126511311,556
North Down and ArdsHolywood3,095Belfast East04361730024332642391,916
North Down and ArdsKilcooley2,695Down North0137441608224766461,835
North Down and ArdsLoughries1,267Down North0164144513819712705
North Down and ArdsLoughview2,826Belfast East02585022923534684412,098
North Down and ArdsRathgael2,444Down North0246131397221595361,500
North Down and ArdsRathmore2,869Down North0417221478024544331,591
North Down and ArdsSilverbirch2,846Down North05732945419879531,836
North Down and ArdsSilverstream2,513Down North0406292009726637391,668
North Down and ArdsWarren2,931Down North056901076120786481,717
 Total64,333 040114,9403,6392,54853116,15097939,188

The full details of these calculations are given on the Down North seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Strangford

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Strangford, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: StrangfordTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatUUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
Alliance
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Lisburn and CastlereaghCarryduff East478Belfast South13301255231903245
Lisburn and CastlereaghKnockbracken215Belfast South41351291801107
Lisburn and CastlereaghMoneyreagh2,117Belfast South832182916470120161,195
Newry, Mourne and DownBallynahinch2,871Down Mid2212331,033143281500231,831
Newry, Mourne and DownCrossgar and Killyleagh1,761Down South14114162910117910141,134
Newry, Mourne and DownDerryboy2,496Down Mid241176794134221140181,499
Newry, Mourne and DownKilmore2,805Down Mid30919792514225530211,672
Newry, Mourne and DownSaintfield2,993Down Mid28620290525025270201,715
North Down and ArdsBallygowan3,050Down Mid290331,12525625190251,773
North Down and ArdsBallywalter3,147Down North1671571,29919226170221,880
North Down and ArdsCarrowdore2,062Down North10910484214417110141,241
North Down and ArdsComber North2,726Down Mid251311,07919423180241,620
North Down and ArdsComber South2,738Down Mid2282892629521170221,537
North Down and ArdsComber West2,669Down Mid2232994731722170221,577
North Down and ArdsConway Square2,873Down Mid122411,19035127240321,787
North Down and ArdsCronstown3,184Down Mid226391,20637128230301,923
North Down and ArdsGlen3,043Down Mid187371,11437826220281,792
North Down and ArdsGregstown2,526Down Mid1943095523522180241,478
North Down and ArdsKillinchy2,579Down Mid2282682832420150201,461
North Down and ArdsKircubbin2,907Down North1162451,08217725158051,808
North Down and ArdsLoughries1,547Down North6478566111118010848
North Down and ArdsMovilla2,538Down Mid128411,19439327240321,839
North Down and ArdsPortaferry2,548Down North8525394313622158031,600
North Down and ArdsPortavogie2,558Down North1171451,21115422160201,685
North Down and ArdsScrabo3,065Down Mid2303196932323190241,619
North Down and ArdsWest Winds2,831Down Mid154421,26932629250321,877
 Total64,327 4,4172,40324,0365,6926071,083050538,743

The full details of these calculations are given on the Strangford seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Down North

The new seat of Down North is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Down North
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old Seat UUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
Alliance
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
North Down and ArdsBallycrochan2,191Down North04540885016601361,335
North Down and ArdsBallygrainey3,420Down North06718135119251,020622,085
North Down and ArdsBallyholme2,643Down North0556315212224702431,611
North Down and ArdsBallymagee2,967Down North057281216921813491,806
North Down and ArdsBallywalter3,120Strangford1671571,29919226170221,880
North Down and ArdsBloomfield2,899Down North056311049820856521,766
North Down and ArdsBroadway2,618Down North0559612110721702421,594
North Down and ArdsBryansburn2,586Down North04151328312126558341,576
North Down and ArdsCarrowdore843Down North01230829951419513
North Down and ArdsCarrowdore2,061Strangford10910484214417110141,241
North Down and ArdsCastle2,864Down North05624848518876531,745
North Down and ArdsClandeboye2,646Down North01668716116725524321,612
North Down and ArdsCultra2,681Down North03752525820428548331,633
North Down and ArdsDonaghadee2,930Down North05734875018840511,785
North Down and ArdsGroomsport2,569Down North046281045818709431,564
North Down and ArdsHarbour3,297Down North0555022716330973592,007
North Down and ArdsHelen's Bay2,555Down North03453623718126511311,556
North Down and ArdsKilcooley3,013Down North0137441608224766461,835
North Down and ArdsKircubbin3,001Strangford1162451,08217725158051,808
North Down and ArdsLoughries1,157Down North0164144513819712705
North Down and ArdsLoughries1,408Strangford6478566111118010848
North Down and ArdsPortaferry2,653Strangford8525394313622158031,600
North Down and ArdsPortavogie2,799Strangford1171451,21115422160201,685
North Down and ArdsRathgael2,462Down North0246131397221595361,500
North Down and ArdsRathmore2,611Down North0417221478024544331,591
North Down and ArdsSilverbirch3,016Down North05732945419879531,836
North Down and ArdsSilverstream2,738Down North0406292009726637391,668
North Down and ArdsWarren2,818Down North056901076120786481,717
 Total72,566 6581,31519,3683,9972,18583114,77897044,102

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Down North. Please note that the wards used are those of 2015 in order to be consistent with those used by the Boundary Commissions.


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