Down North: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Down North: Overview

 Projection: DUP seat 

Implied MP at 2017: Unknown (changed seat)  (DUP)
County/Area: Down (Northern Ireland)
Electorate: 72,566
Turnout: 56.3%

 Implied 2017 VotesImplied 2017 Share
DUP19,45647.6%
MIN15,13937.1%
Green2,1785.3%
SDLP1,4343.5%
OTH9282.3%
SF8642.1%
UUP8482.1%
DUP Majority4,31710.6%

See overview of other seats in Northern Ireland.

Down North: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Down North been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

List of old seats forming part of Down North

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Down North

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Down North, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Down NorthTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatUUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
BelfastGarnerville219Belfast East0144071634120
North Down and ArdsBallycrochan2,191Down North0352504512590361,211
North Down and ArdsBallygrainey3,420Down North05705013222967591,890
North Down and ArdsBallyholme2,643Down North04544010217748451,460
North Down and ArdsBallymagee2,967Down North0471206116798481,639
North Down and ArdsBloomfield2,899Down North04598011219819501,602
North Down and ArdsBroadway2,618Down North04540010117740451,447
North Down and ArdsBryansburn2,586Down North03059208120666401,429
North Down and ArdsCarrowdore843Down North010280011281298466
North Down and ArdsCastle2,864Down North04590011019810491,582
North Down and ArdsClandeboye2,646Down North031649019629525321,462
North Down and ArdsCultra2,681Down North032657019929532321,481
North Down and ArdsDonaghadee2,930Down North0470306016788481,619
North Down and ArdsGroomsport2,569Down North0461605214692421,420
North Down and ArdsHarbour3,297Down North05680012722932561,822
North Down and ArdsHelen's Bay2,555Down North030626019028507311,412
North Down and ArdsHolywood3,146Belfast East037771023334624381,737
North Down and ArdsKilcooley3,013Down North03568909523776471,665
North Down and ArdsLoughries1,157Down North0143850153817711640
North Down and ArdsLoughview3,445Belfast East041844025637684411,903
North Down and ArdsRathgael2,462Down North02956307819634381,361
North Down and ArdsRathmore2,611Down North03059708220673411,443
North Down and ArdsSilverbirch3,016Down North0472406116812491,666
North Down and ArdsSilverstream2,738Down North03262708621704431,513
North Down and ArdsWarren2,818Down North0467705715758461,557
 Total64,334 040114,93802,54953216,14897935,547

The full details of these calculations are given on the Down North seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Strangford

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Strangford, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: StrangfordTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatUUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Lisburn and CastlereaghCarryduff East408Belfast South14281370415444246
Lisburn and CastlereaghKnockbracken178Belfast South61260027192108
Lisburn and CastlereaghMoneyreagh1,985Belfast South58197740629252221,196
Newry, Mourne and DownBallynahinch3,042Down Mid2892081,074029112111101,833
Newry, Mourne and DownCrossgar and Killyleagh1,884Down South179129665018696961,135
Newry, Mourne and DownDerryboy2,488Down Mid237170878023919181,498
Newry, Mourne and DownKilmore2,777Down Mid26419098002610210291,673
Newry, Mourne and DownSaintfield2,848Down Mid2711951,00502710510491,716
North Down and ArdsBallygowan2,942Down Mid246291,10102614327291,772
North Down and ArdsBallywalter3,120Down North1762311,281026847571,880
North Down and ArdsCarrowdore2,061Down North116152846017555041,240
North Down and ArdsComber North2,691Down Mid226261,00702413298271,621
North Down and ArdsComber South2,551Down Mid2142595502212283251,536
North Down and ArdsComber West2,619Down Mid2202698002313291261,579
North Down and ArdsConway Square2,969Down Mid166311,06502615446401,789
North Down and ArdsCronstown3,193Down Mid179331,14502816480431,924
North Down and ArdsGlen2,976Down Mid167311,06702615447401,793
North Down and ArdsGregstown2,454Down Mid1372588002113369331,478
North Down and ArdsKillinchy2,425Down Mid2042490802112269241,462
North Down and ArdsKircubbin3,001Down North1692221,233025807261,807
North Down and ArdsLoughries1,408Down North7910457801238343848
North Down and ArdsMovilla3,054Down Mid171321,09602616459411,841
North Down and ArdsPortaferry2,653Down North1501961,090022716461,599
North Down and ArdsPortavogie2,799Down North1582071,149023766761,686
North Down and ArdsScrabo2,688Down Mid1502896502314404361,620
North Down and ArdsWest Winds3,116Down Mid174321,11802716468421,877
 Total64,330 4,4202,40524,03706091,0835,69550838,757

The full details of these calculations are given on the Strangford seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Down North

The new seat of Down North is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Down North
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old Seat UUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
North Down and ArdsBallycrochan2,191Down North0352504512590361,211
North Down and ArdsBallygrainey3,420Down North05705013222967591,890
North Down and ArdsBallyholme2,643Down North04544010217748451,460
North Down and ArdsBallymagee2,967Down North0471206116798481,639
North Down and ArdsBallywalter3,120Strangford1762311,281026847571,880
North Down and ArdsBloomfield2,899Down North04598011219819501,602
North Down and ArdsBroadway2,618Down North04540010117740451,447
North Down and ArdsBryansburn2,586Down North03059208120666401,429
North Down and ArdsCarrowdore843Down North010280011281298466
North Down and ArdsCarrowdore2,061Strangford116152846017555041,240
North Down and ArdsCastle2,864Down North04590011019810491,582
North Down and ArdsClandeboye2,646Down North031649019629525321,462
North Down and ArdsCultra2,681Down North032657019929532321,481
North Down and ArdsDonaghadee2,930Down North0470306016788481,619
North Down and ArdsGroomsport2,569Down North0461605214692421,420
North Down and ArdsHarbour3,297Down North05680012722932561,822
North Down and ArdsHelen's Bay2,555Down North030626019028507311,412
North Down and ArdsKilcooley3,013Down North03568909523776471,665
North Down and ArdsKircubbin3,001Strangford1692221,233025807261,807
North Down and ArdsLoughries1,157Down North0143850153817711640
North Down and ArdsLoughries1,408Strangford7910457801238343848
North Down and ArdsPortaferry2,653Strangford1501961,090022716461,599
North Down and ArdsPortavogie2,799Strangford1582071,149023766761,686
North Down and ArdsRathgael2,462Down North02956307819634381,361
North Down and ArdsRathmore2,611Down North03059708220673411,443
North Down and ArdsSilverbirch3,016Down North0472406116812491,666
North Down and ArdsSilverstream2,738Down North03262708621704431,513
North Down and ArdsWarren2,818Down North0467705715758461,557
 Total72,566 8481,43419,45602,17886415,13992840,847

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Down North. Please note that the wards used are those of 2015 in order to be consistent with those used by the Boundary Commissions.


© 2019 Electoral Calculus Ltd
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