Down North: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Down North: Overview

 Projection: DUP seat 

Implied MP at 2017: Unknown (changed seat)  (DUP)
County/Area: Down (Northern Ireland)
Electorate: 72,566
Turnout: 60.8%

 Implied 2017 VotesImplied 2017 Share
DUP19,30543.8%
MIN14,77233.5%
Alliance3,9539.0%
Green2,2005.0%
SDLP1,3703.1%
OTH9952.3%
SF8451.9%
UUP6601.5%
DUP Majority4,53310.3%

See overview of other seats in Northern Ireland.

Down North: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Down North been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

List of old seats forming part of Down North

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Down North

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Down North, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Down NorthTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatUUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
Alliance
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
BelfastGarnerville219Belfast East01472782463134
North Down and ArdsBallycrochan2,191Down North03538804513617371,333
North Down and ArdsBallygrainey3,420Down North0570915813424993602,083
North Down and ArdsBallyholme2,643Down North0454812210419768471,612
North Down and ArdsBallymagee2,967Down North047301096218833501,806
North Down and ArdsBloomfield2,899Down North0460113311320842511,764
North Down and ArdsBroadway2,618Down North0454312110218761461,595
North Down and ArdsBryansburn2,586Down North0326341748922588361,575
North Down and ArdsCarrowdore843Down North0102892510261459514
North Down and ArdsCastle2,864Down North0459413211220832501,744
North Down and ArdsClandeboye2,646Down North02958222518623534321,611
North Down and ArdsCultra2,681Down North03059022718924541331,634
North Down and ArdsDonaghadee2,930Down North047211076118823501,784
North Down and ArdsGroomsport2,569Down North04632955316722441,566
North Down and ArdsHarbour3,297Down North0568415212923958582,009
North Down and ArdsHelen's Bay2,555Down North02856221618023516311,556
North Down and ArdsHolywood3,146Belfast East03569226722128635381,916
North Down and ArdsKilcooley3,013Down North03873920410425685411,836
North Down and ArdsLoughries1,157Down North01439634143619912705
North Down and ArdsLoughview3,445Belfast East03875729224330695422,097
North Down and ArdsRathgael2,462Down North0316041668521560341,501
North Down and ArdsRathmore2,611Down North0336401778922593361,590
North Down and ArdsSilverbirch3,016Down North047421116219848511,837
North Down and ArdsSilverstream2,738Down North0346711859423622381,667
North Down and ArdsWarren2,818Down North046931035817792481,715
 Total64,334 040214,9383,6422,54753016,14897739,184

The full details of these calculations are given on the Down North seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Strangford

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Strangford, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: StrangfordTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatUUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
Alliance
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Lisburn and CastlereaghCarryduff East408Belfast South12281236231503246
Lisburn and CastlereaghKnockbracken178Belfast South51254271701107
Lisburn and CastlereaghMoneyreagh1,985Belfast South562282319573110161,196
Newry, Mourne and DownBallynahinch3,042Down Mid2832111,006172271130211,833
Newry, Mourne and DownCrossgar and Killyleagh1,884Down South17513162310717700131,136
Newry, Mourne and DownDerryboy2,488Down Mid23117382214122920171,498
Newry, Mourne and DownKilmore2,777Down Mid258193918158251030191,674
Newry, Mourne and DownSaintfield2,848Down Mid265198942161261050191,716
North Down and ArdsBallygowan2,942Down Mid276321,09330924160241,774
North Down and ArdsBallywalter3,120Down North1372161,21618626780211,880
North Down and ArdsCarrowdore2,061Down North9014380312317510141,241
North Down and ArdsComber North2,691Down Mid2532999828322140221,621
North Down and ArdsComber South2,551Down Mid2402794726821130211,537
North Down and ArdsComber West2,619Down Mid2462897227521140211,577
North Down and ArdsConway Square2,969Down Mid179371,15434626180281,788
North Down and ArdsCronstown3,193Down Mid193401,24237228190301,924
North Down and ArdsGlen2,976Down Mid180371,15734626180281,792
North Down and ArdsGregstown2,454Down Mid1483095428622150231,478
North Down and ArdsKillinchy2,425Down Mid2282690025420130201,461
North Down and ArdsKircubbin3,001Down North1322081,17017925750201,809
North Down and ArdsLoughries1,408Down North629754984123509848
North Down and ArdsMovilla3,054Down Mid184381,18835627190281,840
North Down and ArdsPortaferry2,653Down North1161841,03415822660181,598
North Down and ArdsPortavogie2,799Down North1231941,09116723700191,687
North Down and ArdsScrabo2,688Down Mid161331,04631424160251,619
North Down and ArdsWest Winds3,116Down Mid188391,21236328190291,878
 Total64,330 4,4212,40624,0375,6926081,085050938,758

The full details of these calculations are given on the Strangford seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Down North

The new seat of Down North is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Down North
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old Seat UUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
Alliance
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
North Down and ArdsBallycrochan2,191Down North03538804513617371,333
North Down and ArdsBallygrainey3,420Down North0570915813424993602,083
North Down and ArdsBallyholme2,643Down North0454812210419768471,612
North Down and ArdsBallymagee2,967Down North047301096218833501,806
North Down and ArdsBallywalter3,120Strangford1372161,21618626780211,880
North Down and ArdsBloomfield2,899Down North0460113311320842511,764
North Down and ArdsBroadway2,618Down North0454312110218761461,595
North Down and ArdsBryansburn2,586Down North0326341748922588361,575
North Down and ArdsCarrowdore843Down North0102892510261459514
North Down and ArdsCarrowdore2,061Strangford9014380312317510141,241
North Down and ArdsCastle2,864Down North0459413211220832501,744
North Down and ArdsClandeboye2,646Down North02958222518623534321,611
North Down and ArdsCultra2,681Down North03059022718924541331,634
North Down and ArdsDonaghadee2,930Down North047211076118823501,784
North Down and ArdsGroomsport2,569Down North04632955316722441,566
North Down and ArdsHarbour3,297Down North0568415212923958582,009
North Down and ArdsHelen's Bay2,555Down North02856221618023516311,556
North Down and ArdsKilcooley3,013Down North03873920410425685411,836
North Down and ArdsKircubbin3,001Strangford1322081,17017925750201,809
North Down and ArdsLoughries1,157Down North01439634143619912705
North Down and ArdsLoughries1,408Strangford629754984123509848
North Down and ArdsPortaferry2,653Strangford1161841,03415822660181,598
North Down and ArdsPortavogie2,799Strangford1231941,09116723700191,687
North Down and ArdsRathgael2,462Down North0316041668521560341,501
North Down and ArdsRathmore2,611Down North0336401778922593361,590
North Down and ArdsSilverbirch3,016Down North047421116219848511,837
North Down and ArdsSilverstream2,738Down North0346711859423622381,667
North Down and ArdsWarren2,818Down North046931035817792481,715
 Total72,566 6601,37019,3053,9532,20084514,77299544,100

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Down North. Please note that the wards used are those of 2015 in order to be consistent with those used by the Boundary Commissions.


© 2019 Electoral Calculus Ltd
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