Down South: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Down South: Overview

 Projection: SF seat 

Implied MP at 2019: Chris Hazzard  (SF)
County/Area: Down (Northern Ireland)
Electorate: 80,352
Turnout: 62.6%

 Implied 2019 VotesImplied 2019 Share
SF15,83331.5%
SDLP14,33828.5%
DUP8,10116.1%
Alliance7,13414.2%
UUP3,5997.2%
OTH1,2852.6%
Green270.1%
SF Majority1,4953.0%

See overview of other seats in Northern Ireland.

Down South : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Down South constituency, the 'Northern Ireland' area and nation.

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat Northern IrelandAll UK
Party Winner 2019SFDUPCON
Party Winner 2017SFDUPCON
Party Winner 2015SDLPDUPCON
EU Leave %33%44%52%
British Identity28%40%29%
Good Health50%48%48%
UK Born95%93%88%
Good Education36%36%39%
Good Job45%47%51%
High SEC61%57%51%
Average Age47.147.248.4
ABC1 Class42%45%53%

Down South ranks #556 for "Leave", out of 600 new seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Down South: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2019 had the new boundaries for Down South been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2019. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

List of old seats forming part of Down South

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Down South

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Down South, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Down SouthTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
New SeatUUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
Alliance
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonBanbridge East811Down Mid4082164850124015510
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonGransha721Down Mid326719359091011453
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonLoughbrickland1,038Down South54113202950169019652
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonRathfriland3,472Down South17632481727205350572,181
Newry, Mourne and DownAbbey251Newry and Armagh640152007204157
Newry, Mourne and DownAnnalong2,995Down South16337140123706590511,882
Newry, Mourne and DownBallydugan2,660Down South9637125132005860481,672
Newry, Mourne and DownBallyward2,761Down South12831739632905150511,736
Newry, Mourne and DownBinnian2,957Down South16429159723405220501,858
Newry, Mourne and DownBurren2,868Down South10666917022305930421,803
Newry, Mourne and DownCastlewellan3,172Down South10445619330108880521,994
Newry, Mourne and DownCathedral2,962Down South7973917223005990421,861
Newry, Mourne and DownCrossgar and Killyleagh1,249Down South631672211280183023785
Newry, Mourne and DownDamolly586Newry and Armagh221013746015309368
Newry, Mourne and DownDerryboy431Down Mid2150874505908270
Newry, Mourne and DownDerryleckagh3,226Down South12871519325006940482,028
Newry, Mourne and DownDonard2,805Down South13451618530605750481,764
Newry, Mourne and DownDrumaness2,953Down South12838730435006330541,856
Newry, Mourne and DownDundrum3,055Down South14239138236705820561,920
Newry, Mourne and DownHilltown3,537Down South15774022127607760532,223
Newry, Mourne and DownKilkeel2,833Down South15929746723405740481,779
Newry, Mourne and DownKnocknashinna3,307Down South8395118925805510472,079
Newry, Mourne and DownLecale3,002Down South8882117623405250431,887
Newry, Mourne and DownLisnacree3,443Down South16752022627109260542,164
Newry, Mourne and DownMayobridge3,142Down South14467820024506610481,976
Newry, Mourne and DownMurlough2,896Down South13647218624907300471,820
Newry, Mourne and DownQuoile2,699Down South12281517321103350411,697
Newry, Mourne and DownRostrevor3,375Down South10984419826206580492,120
Newry, Mourne and DownSt Patrick's789Newry and Armagh2916349620181012496
Newry, Mourne and DownStrangford2,777Down South8880516221604340411,746
Newry, Mourne and DownTollymore2,900Down South13446418522707690441,823
Newry, Mourne and DownWarrenpoint3,504Down South10677920727307860512,202
 Total79,177 3,30814,5167,6196,915016,13801,26649,762

The full details of these calculations are given on the Down South seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Lagan Valley

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Lagan Valley, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Lagan ValleyTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
New SeatUUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
Alliance
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonDonaghcloney78Upper Bann1421712010248
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonDromore3,364Down Mid523707595700370572,016
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonGransha2,609Down Mid433615663930670441,564
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonQuilly3,128Down Mid537667084580540521,875
BelfastBelvoir277Belfast South2210536601005166
BelfastDunmurry950Belfast West8035178223035018569
Lisburn and CastlereaghBallinderry2,685Antrim South270687124480670441,609
Lisburn and CastlereaghBallymacash2,334Antrim South226586534100140391,400
Lisburn and CastlereaghBallymacbrennan2,160Down Mid222406163700130341,295
Lisburn and CastlereaghBallymacoss3,207Antrim South280691,0064970200511,923
Lisburn and CastlereaghBlaris2,278Antrim South336445743550170401,366
Lisburn and CastlereaghDerryaghy2,976Belfast West26110157268601100551,785
Lisburn and CastlereaghDromara2,497Down Mid250477523930160391,497
Lisburn and CastlereaghDrumbo2,173Belfast South229405334530120351,302
Lisburn and CastlereaghHarmony Hill2,307Antrim South246655004640670411,383
Lisburn and CastlereaghHilden2,756Antrim South2576076142801020451,653
Lisburn and CastlereaghHillhall2,671Antrim South240517954570170421,602
Lisburn and CastlereaghHillsborough2,338Down Mid412494584280150401,402
Lisburn and CastlereaghKnockmore2,862Antrim South238718814600180481,716
Lisburn and CastlereaghLagan2,273Antrim South403465143450150391,362
Lisburn and CastlereaghLagan Valley2,549Antrim South197568433760160411,529
Lisburn and CastlereaghLambeg2,528Belfast West249507444020300411,516
Lisburn and CastlereaghLisnagarvey2,322Antrim South201597233560150391,393
Lisburn and CastlereaghMaghaberry3,049Antrim South325638924540460481,828
Lisburn and CastlereaghMagheralave2,380Antrim South213685175120750411,426
Lisburn and CastlereaghMaze2,160Antrim South377414673600130371,295
Lisburn and CastlereaghMoira2,803Antrim South410705325990180511,680
Lisburn and CastlereaghOld Warren2,998Antrim South216711,0334100190491,798
Lisburn and CastlereaghRavernet2,200Down Mid272405863730120361,319
Lisburn and CastlereaghStonyford360Antrim South3411945801306216
Lisburn and CastlereaghWallace Park2,979Antrim South295747116100450511,786
Lisburn and CastlereaghWhite Mountain3,346Antrim South327968116290880572,008
Newry, Mourne and DownBallyward138Down South1362531050383
 Total75,735 8,6081,75819,58613,08601,10201,27045,410

The full details of these calculations are given on the Lagan Valley seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Newry and Armagh

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Newry and Armagh, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Newry and ArmaghTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
New SeatUUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
Alliance
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonBlackwatertown3,763Newry and Armagh25344544420509260802,353
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonCathedral3,638Newry and Armagh13447234318501,0670742,275
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonDemesne3,665Newry and Armagh19350138821909110802,292
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonHamiltonsbawn3,239Newry and Armagh29119179515905270622,025
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonKeady3,634Newry and Armagh15447335718901,0230762,272
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonLoughbrickland558Down South445011640087011348
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonLoughgall3,063Newry and Armagh23820480615404540591,915
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonMahon94Upper Bann642850130258
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonMarkethill3,533Newry and Armagh33421981217606000682,209
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonNavan3,285Newry and Armagh23437646717807290692,053
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonRichhill3,579Newry and Armagh32321187617505840692,238
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonSeagahan3,552Newry and Armagh28845344319807610782,221
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonTandragee3,665Upper Bann34020489317806060702,291
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonThe Mall3,579Newry and Armagh26637567826705760752,237
Newry, Mourne and DownAbbey2,722Newry and Armagh5145125013707580551,702
Newry, Mourne and DownBallybot3,694Newry and Armagh6862534518801,0070762,309
Newry, Mourne and DownBessbrook3,409Newry and Armagh12128731216101,1860642,131
Newry, Mourne and DownCamlough2,687Newry and Armagh7726023312509340501,679
Newry, Mourne and DownCrossmaglen2,613Newry and Armagh5225321211709530481,635
Newry, Mourne and DownDamolly2,721Newry and Armagh8447427314406680581,701
Newry, Mourne and DownDrumalane3,448Newry and Armagh6569531417208390702,155
Newry, Mourne and DownFathom2,929Newry and Armagh5355926614607470591,830
Newry, Mourne and DownForkhill2,652Newry and Armagh6828322612209100501,659
Newry, Mourne and DownMayobridge308Down South1562331705907193
Newry, Mourne and DownMullaghbane2,882Newry and Armagh7630324613409900541,803
Newry, Mourne and DownNewtownhamilton2,671Newry and Armagh10421625112809190511,669
Newry, Mourne and DownSt Patrick's2,797Newry and Armagh8858527214605990591,749
Newry, Mourne and DownWhitecross2,846Newry and Armagh18521832214408530561,778
 Total81,226 4,2059,44911,0014,209020,28601,63050,780

The full details of these calculations are given on the Newry and Armagh seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Strangford

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Strangford, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: StrangfordTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
New SeatUUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
Alliance
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Lisburn and CastlereaghCarryduff East424Belfast South14198990510011238
Lisburn and CastlereaghKnockbracken185Belfast South4836443405104
Lisburn and CastlereaghMoneyreagh2,065Belfast South80436253192370591,156
Newry, Mourne and DownBallynahinch3,165Down Mid20214176545543740931,773
Newry, Mourne and DownCrossgar and Killyleagh1,960Down South1298646329127450571,098
Newry, Mourne and DownDerryboy2,588Down Mid21610957438435560741,448
Newry, Mourne and DownKilmore2,889Down Mid27511866341636270841,619
Newry, Mourne and DownSaintfield2,963Down Mid25612063051935150841,659
North Down and ArdsBallygowan3,061Down Mid2576382544734110761,713
North Down and ArdsBallywalter3,246Down North15510897644437100881,818
North Down and ArdsCarrowdore2,144Down North102716293092570571,200
North Down and ArdsComber North2,800Down Mid2235880337132100711,568
North Down and ArdsComber South2,654Down Mid2035566845430100671,487
North Down and ArdsComber West2,725Down Mid2005668347930100681,526
North Down and ArdsConway Square3,089Down Mid1156788853035130831,731
North Down and ArdsCronstown3,322Down Mid2057088356838130851,862
North Down and ArdsGlen3,096Down Mid1716581455935120791,735
North Down and ArdsGregstown2,553Down Mid1745470539129100671,430
North Down and ArdsKillinchy2,523Down Mid203525864742980621,414
North Down and ArdsKircubbin3,122Down North11214381448041770821,749
North Down and ArdsLoughries1,465Down North6052422225175040821
North Down and ArdsMovilla3,177Down Mid1216988457436130841,781
North Down and ArdsPortaferry2,760Down North8514071042337770741,546
North Down and ArdsPortavogie2,912Down North1119892037933100791,630
North Down and ArdsScrabo2,797Down Mid2065869949231110701,567
North Down and ArdsWest Winds3,242Down Mid1437095051836130861,816
 Total66,927 4,0221,99317,70410,63579255801,78537,489

The full details of these calculations are given on the Strangford seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Upper Bann

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Upper Bann, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Upper BannTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
New SeatUUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
Alliance
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonAghagallon3,401Upper Bann1202535552890837002,054
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonBallybay3,172Upper Bann2061111,1361860276001,915
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonBanbridge East2,246Down Mid2821395112300194001,356
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonBanbridge North2,983Down Mid3791757022880257001,801
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonBanbridge South3,273Down Mid4421867852780285001,976
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonBanbridge West3,830Down Mid5192497773330435002,313
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonBleary3,158Upper Bann3121419502430261001,907
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonBrownlow4,401Upper Bann16332676431201,092002,657
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonCorcrain3,668Upper Bann1072606222480977002,214
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonCraigavon Centre3,836Upper Bann2772191,0893810350002,316
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonDerrytrasna3,287Upper Bann1442375872350782001,985
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonDonaghcloney3,059Upper Bann3201119452280243001,847
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonGilford3,361Upper Bann4252326772900406002,030
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonKernan3,343Upper Bann3061549982840277002,019
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonKillycomain3,118Upper Bann1861261,0712280270001,881
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonKnocknashane2,932Upper Bann1891149932340240001,770
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonLough Road3,447Upper Bann1072435242440964002,082
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonLoughbrickland1,800Down South2401213901570179001,087
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonMagheralin3,052Upper Bann2101429212890281001,843
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonMahon3,258Upper Bann2401211,1132120281001,967
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonMourneview3,489Upper Bann1641401,1202230459002,106
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonParklake3,679Upper Bann10924857325901,031002,220
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonShankill4,210Upper Bann11626663126601,262002,541
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonThe Birches3,315Upper Bann2551829612330370002,001
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonWaringstown3,569Upper Bann3781281,1052630281002,155
 Total82,887 6,1964,62420,5006,433012,2900050,043

The full details of these calculations are given on the Upper Bann seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Down South

The new seat of Down South is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Down South
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
Old Seat UUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
Alliance
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonLoughbrickland558Newry and Armagh445011640087011348
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonLoughbrickland1,038Down South54113202950169019652
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonLoughbrickland1,800Upper Bann2401213901570179001,087
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonRathfriland3,472Down South17632481727205350572,181
Newry, Mourne and DownAnnalong2,995Down South16337140123706590511,882
Newry, Mourne and DownBallydugan2,660Down South9637125132005860481,672
Newry, Mourne and DownBallyward138Lagan Valley1362531050383
Newry, Mourne and DownBallyward2,761Down South12831739632905150511,736
Newry, Mourne and DownBinnian2,957Down South16429159723405220501,858
Newry, Mourne and DownBurren2,868Down South10666917022305930421,803
Newry, Mourne and DownCastlewellan3,172Down South10445619330108880521,994
Newry, Mourne and DownCathedral2,962Down South7973917223005990421,861
Newry, Mourne and DownCrossgar and Killyleagh1,249Down South631672211280183023785
Newry, Mourne and DownCrossgar and Killyleagh1,960Strangford1298646329127450571,098
Newry, Mourne and DownDerryleckagh3,226Down South12871519325006940482,028
Newry, Mourne and DownDonard2,805Down South13451618530605750481,764
Newry, Mourne and DownDrumaness2,953Down South12838730435006330541,856
Newry, Mourne and DownDundrum3,055Down South14239138236705820561,920
Newry, Mourne and DownHilltown3,537Down South15774022127607760532,223
Newry, Mourne and DownKilkeel2,833Down South15929746723405740481,779
Newry, Mourne and DownKnocknashinna3,307Down South8395118925805510472,079
Newry, Mourne and DownLecale3,002Down South8882117623405250431,887
Newry, Mourne and DownLisnacree3,443Down South16752022627109260542,164
Newry, Mourne and DownMayobridge308Newry and Armagh1562331705907193
Newry, Mourne and DownMayobridge3,142Down South14467820024506610481,976
Newry, Mourne and DownMurlough2,896Down South13647218624907300471,820
Newry, Mourne and DownQuoile2,699Down South12281517321103350411,697
Newry, Mourne and DownRostrevor3,375Down South10984419826206580492,120
Newry, Mourne and DownStrangford2,777Down South8880516221604340411,746
Newry, Mourne and DownTollymore2,900Down South13446418522707690441,823
Newry, Mourne and DownWarrenpoint3,504Down South10677920727307860512,202
 Total80,352 3,59914,3388,1017,1342715,83301,28550,317

And these are the implied results for 2019 for the new seat of Down South. Please note that the wards used are those of 2015 in order to be consistent with those used by the Boundary Commissions.


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