Down South: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Down South: Overview

 Projection: SF seat 

Implied MP at 2017: Chris Hazzard  (SF)
County/Area: Down (Northern Ireland)
Electorate: 76,848
Turnout: 67.0%

 Implied 2017 VotesImplied 2017 Share
SF19,97438.8%
SDLP17,67434.3%
DUP9,49218.4%
UUP2,4304.7%
Alliance1,8883.7%
Green170.0%
OTH150.0%
SF Majority2,3004.5%

See overview of other seats in Northern Ireland.

Down South : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Down South constituency, the 'Northern Ireland' area and nation.

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat Northern IrelandAll UK
Party WinnerSFDUPCON
EU Leave %33%44%52%
British Identity28%40%29%
Good Health50%48%48%
UK Born95%93%88%
Good Education36%36%39%
Good Job45%47%51%
High SEC61%57%51%
Average Age47.147.248.4
ABC1 Class42%45%53%

Down South ranks #556 for "Leave", out of 600 new seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Down South: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Down South been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

List of old seats forming part of Down South

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Down South

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Down South, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Down SouthTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatUUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
Alliance
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonBanbridge East775Down Mid279119250016100521
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonGransha689Down Mid217122224012600464
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonLoughbrickland992Down South3714023636021800667
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonRathfriland3,319Down South121401942610706002,231
Newry, Mourne and DownAbbey240Newry and Armagh25416208700161
Newry, Mourne and DownAnnalong2,863Down South113475495320811001,926
Newry, Mourne and DownBallydugan2,543Down South514373311780712001,709
Newry, Mourne and DownBallyward2,639Down South813844831820644001,774
Newry, Mourne and DownBinnian2,827Down South116389694320670001,901
Newry, Mourne and DownBurren2,742Down South59829179210756001,844
Newry, Mourne and DownCastlewellan3,032Down South5158721112901,061002,039
Newry, Mourne and DownCathedral2,831Down South31908175230767001,904
Newry, Mourne and DownCrossgar and Killyleagh1,194Down South4119926161024100803
Newry, Mourne and DownDamolly560Newry and Armagh12129445018600376
Newry, Mourne and DownDerryboy412Down Mid14611012208000278
Newry, Mourne and DownDerryleckagh3,084Down South75891208230877002,074
Newry, Mourne and DownDonard2,681Down South886182251560716001,803
Newry, Mourne and DownDrumaness2,823Down South794613931920773001,898
Newry, Mourne and DownDundrum2,920Down South904684772050725001,965
Newry, Mourne and DownHilltown3,381Down South100922252280972002,274
Newry, Mourne and DownKilkeel2,708Down South113387558490715001,822
Newry, Mourne and DownKnocknashinna3,161Down South281,145190260737002,126
Newry, Mourne and DownLecale2,870Down South38991184240692001,929
Newry, Mourne and DownLisnacree3,291Down South1106792753201,118002,214
Newry, Mourne and DownMayobridge3,004Down South92837231260834002,020
Newry, Mourne and DownMurlough2,768Down South88598221680887001,862
Newry, Mourne and DownQuoile2,580Down South78954203220478001,735
Newry, Mourne and DownRostrevor3,226Down South541,035207250848002,169
Newry, Mourne and DownSt Patrick's754Newry and Armagh17203567022400507
Newry, Mourne and DownStrangford2,655Down South42964169210589001,785
Newry, Mourne and DownTollymore2,772Down South86604217260931001,864
Newry, Mourne and DownWarrenpoint3,350Down South48973218280986002,253
 Total75,686 2,00317,8858,8661,816020,3280050,898

The full details of these calculations are given on the Down South seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Lagan Valley

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Lagan Valley, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Lagan ValleyTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatUUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
Alliance
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonDonaghcloney75Upper Bann142264010148
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonDromore3,215Down Mid5101121,0832110500301,996
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonGransha2,493Down Mid4151058069701030221,548
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonQuilly2,989Down Mid5201011,0031250790271,855
BelfastBelvoir265Belfast South1328792801503166
BelfastDunmurry908Belfast West521082627905409564
Lisburn and CastlereaghBallinderry2,566Antrim South22313995815001020221,594
Lisburn and CastlereaghBallymacash2,231Antrim South1921328801460150191,384
Lisburn and CastlereaghBallymacbrennan2,064Down Mid199508251730150191,281
Lisburn and CastlereaghBallymacoss3,065Antrim South2231241,3171890220281,903
Lisburn and CastlereaghBlaris2,177Antrim South330607951230190241,351
Lisburn and CastlereaghDerryaghy2,844Belfast West17528383527301710271,764
Lisburn and CastlereaghDromara2,386Down Mid220599931680180231,481
Lisburn and CastlereaghDrumbo2,077Belfast South208487462550140191,290
Lisburn and CastlereaghHarmony Hill2,205Antrim South20815470917501020201,368
Lisburn and CastlereaghHilden2,634Antrim South191731,00417901610281,636
Lisburn and CastlereaghHillhall2,553Antrim South195651,0532250200261,584
Lisburn and CastlereaghHillsborough2,234Down Mid404856871730170211,387
Lisburn and CastlereaghKnockmore2,735Antrim South1791671,1591480200251,698
Lisburn and CastlereaghLagan2,172Antrim South396707361080170221,349
Lisburn and CastlereaghLagan Valley2,436Antrim South1391051,0891370180241,512
Lisburn and CastlereaghLambeg2,416Belfast West213649841710420251,499
Lisburn and CastlereaghLisnagarvey2,219Antrim South156140948980160201,378
Lisburn and CastlereaghMaghaberry2,914Antrim South290911,1801570670251,810
Lisburn and CastlereaghMagheralave2,275Antrim South15316173122801150221,410
Lisburn and CastlereaghMaze2,064Antrim South370526781450160211,282
Lisburn and CastlereaghMoira2,679Antrim South4001658062460200261,663
Lisburn and CastlereaghOld Warren2,865Antrim South1381521,3231140220291,778
Lisburn and CastlereaghRavernet2,103Down Mid267487991580140191,305
Lisburn and CastlereaghStonyford344Antrim South26261251302003213
Lisburn and CastlereaghWallace Park2,847Antrim South2471609932760640271,767
Lisburn and CastlereaghWhite Mountain3,198Antrim South2602341,11621601330261,985
Newry, Mourne and DownBallyward132Down South918379070181
 Total72,380 7,5353,38126,7654,99701,569068344,930

The full details of these calculations are given on the Lagan Valley seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Newry and Armagh

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Newry and Armagh, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Newry and ArmaghTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatUUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
Alliance
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonBlackwatertown3,626Newry and Armagh2764365365901,175002,482
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonCathedral3,505Newry and Armagh1284834264701,315002,399
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonDemesne3,531Newry and Armagh2005024837801,153002,416
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonHamiltonsbawn3,121Newry and Armagh336126901470726002,136
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonKeady3,502Newry and Armagh1524814444901,270002,396
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonLoughbrickland538Down South504113323012100368
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonLoughgall2,951Newry and Armagh269148916470640002,020
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonMahon91Upper Bann723230180062
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonMarkethill3,404Newry and Armagh387150922530818002,330
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonNavan3,165Newry and Armagh259358556520941002,166
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonRichhill3,449Newry and Armagh373139994520804002,362
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonSeagahan3,423Newry and Armagh324447524580990002,343
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonTandragee3,531Upper Bann3931271,012530832002,417
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonThe Mall3,449Newry and Armagh2973297841550796002,361
Newry, Mourne and DownAbbey2,623Newry and Armagh33465322330943001,796
Newry, Mourne and DownBallybot3,559Newry and Armagh426454484501,256002,436
Newry, Mourne and DownBessbrook3,285Newry and Armagh1172633944301,430002,247
Newry, Mourne and DownCamlough2,589Newry and Armagh702522923201,127001,773
Newry, Mourne and DownCrossmaglen2,518Newry and Armagh392482652801,143001,723
Newry, Mourne and DownDamolly2,622Newry and Armagh73486352370847001,795
Newry, Mourne and DownDrumalane3,322Newry and Armagh417214044101,067002,274
Newry, Mourne and DownFathom2,822Newry and Armagh34579342350941001,931
Newry, Mourne and DownForkhill2,555Newry and Armagh572822803001,099001,748
Newry, Mourne and DownMayobridge297Down South156441507900204
Newry, Mourne and DownMullaghbane2,777Newry and Armagh653013063301,196001,901
Newry, Mourne and DownNewtownhamilton2,574Newry and Armagh1041943193501,110001,762
Newry, Mourne and DownSt Patrick's2,695Newry and Armagh78603347370780001,845
Newry, Mourne and DownWhitecross2,742Newry and Armagh2041823994301,049001,877
 Total78,266 4,4239,05413,1741,253025,6660053,570

The full details of these calculations are given on the Newry and Armagh seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Strangford

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Strangford, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: StrangfordTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatUUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
Alliance
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Lisburn and CastlereaghCarryduff East408Belfast South13301255231903245
Lisburn and CastlereaghKnockbracken178Belfast South41351291801107
Lisburn and CastlereaghMoneyreagh1,985Belfast South832182916470120161,195
Newry, Mourne and DownBallynahinch3,042Down Mid2212331,033143281500231,831
Newry, Mourne and DownCrossgar and Killyleagh1,884Down South14114162910117910141,134
Newry, Mourne and DownDerryboy2,488Down Mid241176794134221140181,499
Newry, Mourne and DownKilmore2,777Down Mid30919792514225530211,672
Newry, Mourne and DownSaintfield2,848Down Mid28620290525025270201,715
North Down and ArdsBallygowan2,942Down Mid290331,12525625190251,773
North Down and ArdsBallywalter3,120Down North1671571,29919226170221,880
North Down and ArdsCarrowdore2,061Down North10910484214417110141,241
North Down and ArdsComber North2,691Down Mid251311,07919423180241,620
North Down and ArdsComber South2,551Down Mid2282892629521170221,537
North Down and ArdsComber West2,619Down Mid2232994731722170221,577
North Down and ArdsConway Square2,969Down Mid122411,19035127240321,787
North Down and ArdsCronstown3,193Down Mid226391,20637128230301,923
North Down and ArdsGlen2,976Down Mid187371,11437826220281,792
North Down and ArdsGregstown2,454Down Mid1943095523522180241,478
North Down and ArdsKillinchy2,425Down Mid2282682832420150201,461
North Down and ArdsKircubbin3,001Down North1162451,08217725158051,808
North Down and ArdsLoughries1,408Down North6478566111118010848
North Down and ArdsMovilla3,054Down Mid128411,19439327240321,839
North Down and ArdsPortaferry2,653Down North8525394313622158031,600
North Down and ArdsPortavogie2,799Down North1171451,21115422160201,685
North Down and ArdsScrabo2,688Down Mid2303196932323190241,619
North Down and ArdsWest Winds3,116Down Mid154421,26932629250321,877
 Total64,330 4,4172,40324,0365,6926071,083050538,743

The full details of these calculations are given on the Strangford seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Upper Bann

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Upper Bann, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Upper BannTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatUUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
Alliance
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonAghagallon3,289Upper Bann923066271170962002,104
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonBallybay3,068Upper Bann303501,225420342001,962
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonBanbridge East2,172Down Mid3681495491020221001,389
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonBanbridge North2,885Down Mid4941737561300292001,845
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonBanbridge South3,166Down Mid5691808441040327002,024
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonBanbridge West3,704Down Mid6532478331080528002,369
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonBleary3,054Upper Bann442971,020960298001,953
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonBrownlow4,257Upper Bann1474228613901,253002,722
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonCorcrain3,548Upper Bann693327113501,122002,269
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonCraigavon Centre3,710Upper Bann3882011,1652000417002,371
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonDerrytrasna3,179Upper Bann151301657270896002,032
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonDonaghcloney2,959Upper Bann449391,0161080279001,891
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonGilford3,251Upper Bann543249725760487002,080
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonKernan3,233Upper Bann436991,0681480316002,067
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonKillycomain3,016Upper Bann255601,1541210338001,928
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonKnocknashane2,836Upper Bann265411,0681480291001,813
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonLough Road3,334Upper Bann753016035501,098002,132
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonLoughbrickland1,741Down South305134417440212001,112
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonMagheralin2,952Upper Bann291819881830344001,887
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonMahon3,151Upper Bann363571,197610337002,015
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonMourneview3,375Upper Bann197611,2191020579002,158
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonParklake3,558Upper Bann732956597101,177002,275
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonShankill4,072Upper Bann743127374601,435002,604
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonThe Birches3,206Upper Bann3691661,027330455002,050
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonWaringstown3,452Upper Bann530451,1901230320002,208
 Total80,168 7,9014,39822,3162,319014,3260051,260

The full details of these calculations are given on the Upper Bann seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Down South

The new seat of Down South is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Down South
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old Seat UUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
Alliance
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonLoughbrickland538Newry and Armagh504113323012100368
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonLoughbrickland992Down South3714023636021800667
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonLoughbrickland1,741Upper Bann305134417440212001,112
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonRathfriland3,319Down South121401942610706002,231
Newry, Mourne and DownAnnalong2,863Down South113475495320811001,926
Newry, Mourne and DownBallydugan2,543Down South514373311780712001,709
Newry, Mourne and DownBallyward132Lagan Valley918379070181
Newry, Mourne and DownBallyward2,639Down South813844831820644001,774
Newry, Mourne and DownBinnian2,827Down South116389694320670001,901
Newry, Mourne and DownBurren2,742Down South59829179210756001,844
Newry, Mourne and DownCastlewellan3,032Down South5158721112901,061002,039
Newry, Mourne and DownCathedral2,831Down South31908175230767001,904
Newry, Mourne and DownCrossgar and Killyleagh1,194Down South4119926161024100803
Newry, Mourne and DownCrossgar and Killyleagh1,884Strangford14114162910117910141,134
Newry, Mourne and DownDerryleckagh3,084Down South75891208230877002,074
Newry, Mourne and DownDonard2,681Down South886182251560716001,803
Newry, Mourne and DownDrumaness2,823Down South794613931920773001,898
Newry, Mourne and DownDundrum2,920Down South904684772050725001,965
Newry, Mourne and DownHilltown3,381Down South100922252280972002,274
Newry, Mourne and DownKilkeel2,708Down South113387558490715001,822
Newry, Mourne and DownKnocknashinna3,161Down South281,145190260737002,126
Newry, Mourne and DownLecale2,870Down South38991184240692001,929
Newry, Mourne and DownLisnacree3,291Down South1106792753201,118002,214
Newry, Mourne and DownMayobridge297Newry and Armagh156441507900204
Newry, Mourne and DownMayobridge3,004Down South92837231260834002,020
Newry, Mourne and DownMurlough2,768Down South88598221680887001,862
Newry, Mourne and DownQuoile2,580Down South78954203220478001,735
Newry, Mourne and DownRostrevor3,226Down South541,035207250848002,169
Newry, Mourne and DownStrangford2,655Down South42964169210589001,785
Newry, Mourne and DownTollymore2,772Down South86604217260931001,864
Newry, Mourne and DownWarrenpoint3,350Down South48973218280986002,253
 Total76,848 2,43017,6749,4921,8881719,97401551,490

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Down South. Please note that the wards used are those of 2015 in order to be consistent with those used by the Boundary Commissions.


© 2019 Electoral Calculus Ltd
Powered by TigerLib (03-Dec-2019 16:24, sc1)