Fife South: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Fife South: Overview

 Projection: SNP seat 

Implied MP at 2017: Unknown (changed seat)  (SNP)
County/Area: Fife (Scotland)
Electorate: 78,649
Turnout: 65.2%

 Implied 2017 VotesImplied 2017 Share
SNP18,39435.9%
LAB18,27335.6%
CON12,21023.8%
LIB2,0694.0%
UKIP3320.6%
SNP Majority1210.2%

See overview of other seats in Scotland.

Fife South : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Fife South constituency, the 'Scotland' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatScotlandAll GB
Party WinnerSNPSNPCON
Economic Position28° Left23° Left
National Position12° Glo15° Glo
Social Position14° Lib13° Lib
TribeStrong Left
EU Leave %43%38%52%
British Identity25%27%29%
Good Health51%52%48%
UK Born96%93%88%
Good Education32%36%39%
Good Job46%49%51%
High SEC52%55%51%
Average Age48.948.748.5
ABC1 Class47%50%53%

Fife South ranks #479 for "Leave", #584 for "Right", #499 for "National" and #559 for "Social" out of 600 new seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery GlobalGlobalCentristNationalVery Nat
Social PositionVery LibLiberalModerateConservativeVery Cons
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Fife South: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Fife South been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

List of old seats forming part of Fife South

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Dunfermline and West Fife

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Dunfermline and West Fife, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Dunfermline and West FifeTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SNP
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
FifeWest Fife and Coastal Villages13,909Clackmannanshire and Dunfermline2,4723,284435003,185009,376
FifeDunfermline North10,024Clackmannanshire and Dunfermline1,5752,333413002,436006,757
FifeDunfermline Central14,819Clackmannanshire and Dunfermline2,6113,157704003,517009,989
FifeDunfermline South16,449Fife South2,8323,606819003,8310011,088
FifeRosyth11,296Fife South1,6332,678392002,911007,614
FifeInverkeithing and Dalgety Bay4,241Fife South833741150001,136002,860
FifeThe Lochs698Fife South97215130014600471
FifeCowdenbeath4,236Fife South5391,2649400959002,856
 Total75,672 12,59217,2783,0200018,1210051,011

The full details of these calculations are given on the Dunfermline and West Fife seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Glenrothes

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Glenrothes, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: GlenrothesTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SNP
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
FifeLochgelly and Cardenden4,375Fife South4921,1505700964002,663
FifeBurntisland, Kinghorn and Western Kirkcaldy26Fife South4510060016
FifeKirkcaldy North1,827Fife Mid2214384000414001,113
FifeKirkcaldy East8Fife Mid120002005
FifeGlenrothes West and Kinglassie13,619Fife Mid1,5952,743231003,719008,288
FifeGlenrothes North, Leslie and Markinch13,538Fife Mid1,7252,461199003,854008,239
FifeGlenrothes Central and Thornton10,627Fife Mid1,2512,196180002,840006,467
FifeLeven, Kennoway and Largo8,738Fife North East1,1211,540324002,332005,317
FifeBuckhaven, Methil and Wemyss Villages13,621Fife Mid;
Fife North East
1,4663,489175003,159008,289
 Total66,379 7,87614,0241,2070017,2900040,397

The full details of these calculations are given on the Glenrothes seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Kirkcaldy and CowdenbeathTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SNP
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
FifeInverkeithing and Dalgety Bay8,798Fife South1,7061,35420511602,208005,589
FifeThe Lochs9,208Fife South1,2742,613595201,851005,849
FifeCowdenbeath6,419Fife South8241,770823001,371004,077
FifeLochgelly and Cardenden5,406Fife South7131,497412501,158003,434
FifeBurntisland, Kinghorn and Western Kirkcaldy10,954Fife Mid;
Fife South
1,8462,01622816002,708006,958
FifeKirkcaldy North9,978Fife Mid1,4272,4951484102,228006,339
FifeKirkcaldy Central11,355Fife Mid1,5652,7112316302,643007,213
FifeKirkcaldy East10,603Fife Mid1,4072,5611265202,590006,736
 Total72,721 10,76217,0171,120539016,7570046,195

The full details of these calculations are given on the Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Fife South

The new seat of Fife South is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Fife South
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old Seat CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SNP
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
FifeBurntisland, Kinghorn and Western Kirkcaldy7,497Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath1,2631,38015610901,853004,761
FifeBurntisland, Kinghorn and Western Kirkcaldy26Glenrothes4510060016
FifeCowdenbeath4,236Dunfermline and West Fife5391,2649400959002,856
FifeCowdenbeath6,419Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath8241,770823001,371004,077
FifeDunfermline South16,449Dunfermline and West Fife2,8323,606819003,8310011,088
FifeInverkeithing and Dalgety Bay4,241Dunfermline and West Fife833741150001,136002,860
FifeInverkeithing and Dalgety Bay8,798Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath1,7061,35420511602,208005,589
FifeLochgelly and Cardenden4,375Glenrothes4921,1505700964002,663
FifeLochgelly and Cardenden5,406Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath7131,497412501,158003,434
FifeRosyth11,296Dunfermline and West Fife1,6332,678392002,911007,614
FifeThe Lochs698Dunfermline and West Fife97215130014600471
FifeThe Lochs9,208Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath1,2742,613595201,851005,849
 Total78,649 12,21018,2732,069332018,3940051,278

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Fife South. Please note that the wards used are those of 2015 in order to be consistent with those used by the Boundary Commissions.


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