Neath: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Neath: Overview

 Projection: LAB seat 

Implied MP at 2017: Christina Rees  (LAB)
County/Area: West Glamorgan (Wales)
Electorate: 76,055
Turnout: 68.0%

 Implied 2017 VotesImplied 2017 Share
LAB30,96959.8%
CON11,36422.0%
Plaid6,46912.5%
UKIP1,9423.8%
LIB1,0041.9%
LAB Majority19,60537.9%

See overview of other seats in Wales.

Neath : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Neath constituency, the 'Wales' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatWalesAll GB
Party WinnerLABLABCON
Economic Position19° Left9° Left
National Position3° Nat
EU Leave %56%52%52%
British Identity20%26%29%
Good Health45%47%48%
UK Born98%95%88%
Good Education30%36%39%
Good Job44%46%51%
High SEC41%46%51%
Average Age50.249.648.5
ABC1 Class41%47%53%

Neath ranks #230 for "Leave", #567 for "Right" and #414 for "National" out of 600 new seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Neath: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Neath been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

List of old seats forming part of Neath

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Aberavon

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Aberavon, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: AberavonTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Plaid
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Neath Port TalbotAberavon4,114Ogmore and Aberavon4281,891451170261002,742
Neath Port TalbotBaglan5,150Ogmore and Aberavon7902,156421480298003,434
Neath Port TalbotBriton Ferry East2,186Neath2271,03528560111001,457
Neath Port TalbotBriton Ferry West2,265Neath2211,1231756094001,511
Neath Port TalbotBryn and Cwmavon4,930Neath5872,267461300257003,287
Neath Port TalbotCoedffranc Central3,053Neath3601,28425820284002,035
Neath Port TalbotCoedffranc North1,820Neath24476655480102001,215
Neath Port TalbotCoedffranc West1,958Neath30077663510116001,306
Neath Port TalbotCymmer2,131Neath1821,0861453085001,420
Neath Port TalbotGlyncorrwg827Neath76404122303700552
Neath Port TalbotGwynfi1,027Neath85515132704400684
Neath Port TalbotMargam2,284Ogmore and Aberavon41684167610137001,522
Neath Port TalbotPort Talbot4,257Ogmore and Aberavon5061,899511180265002,839
Neath Port TalbotSandfields East5,258Ogmore and Aberavon6182,429411470272003,507
Neath Port TalbotSandfields West5,018Ogmore and Aberavon4822,471431340216003,346
Neath Port TalbotTai-bach3,611Ogmore and Aberavon3801,71735940182002,408
 Total49,889 5,90222,6605971,34502,7610033,265

The full details of these calculations are given on the Aberavon seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Neath

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Neath, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: NeathTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Plaid
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Neath Port TalbotAberdulais1,818Neath32267322440185001,246
Neath Port TalbotAllt-wen1,743Neath30366120460164001,194
Neath Port TalbotBlaengwrach1,507Neath23759212390153001,033
Neath Port TalbotBryn-cch North1,701Neath38447717470241001,166
Neath Port TalbotBryn-cch South4,425Neath8391,531521130497003,032
Neath Port TalbotCadoxton1,276Neath222522372806500874
Neath Port TalbotCimla2,966Neath4301,30683610152002,032
Neath Port TalbotCrynant1,448Neath2305391537017100992
Neath Port TalbotCwmllynfell891Neath14137192306600610
Neath Port TalbotDyffryn2,388Neath41077535670350001,637
Neath Port TalbotGlynneath2,601Neath42495931700299001,783
Neath Port TalbotGodre'r graig1,236Neath2124401331015100847
Neath Port TalbotGwaun-Cae-Gurwen2,207Neath36284321580229001,513
Neath Port TalbotLower Brynamman1,005Neath135467102105500688
Neath Port TalbotNeath East4,860Neath6532,035691260448003,331
Neath Port TalbotNeath North3,023Neath4131,43133670129002,073
Neath Port TalbotNeath South3,758Neath5351,66153920235002,576
Neath Port TalbotOnllwyn901Neath134394132305400618
Neath Port TalbotPelenna871Neath1362881524013300596
Neath Port TalbotPontardawe4,126Neath7181,450441080508002,828
Neath Port TalbotResolven2,384Neath3401,01128650190001,634
Neath Port TalbotRhos1,873Neath37961721500218001,285
Neath Port TalbotSeven Sisters1,608Neath2776762043086001,102
Neath Port TalbotTonna1,889Neath29683119420105001,293
Neath Port TalbotTrebanos1,055Neath1893351229015800723
Neath Port TalbotYstalyfera2,298Neath36182827620297001,575
 Total55,858 9,08221,7137311,41605,3390038,281

The full details of these calculations are given on the Neath seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Neath

The new seat of Neath is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Neath
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old Seat CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Plaid
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Neath Port TalbotAberdulais1,818Neath32267322440185001,246
Neath Port TalbotAllt-wen1,743Neath30366120460164001,194
Neath Port TalbotBlaengwrach1,507Neath23759212390153001,033
Neath Port TalbotBriton Ferry East2,186Aberavon2271,03528560111001,457
Neath Port TalbotBriton Ferry West2,265Aberavon2211,1231756094001,511
Neath Port TalbotBryn and Cwmavon4,930Aberavon5872,267461300257003,287
Neath Port TalbotBryn-cch North1,701Neath38447717470241001,166
Neath Port TalbotBryn-cch South4,425Neath8391,531521130497003,032
Neath Port TalbotCadoxton1,276Neath222522372806500874
Neath Port TalbotCimla2,966Neath4301,30683610152002,032
Neath Port TalbotCoedffranc Central3,053Aberavon3601,28425820284002,035
Neath Port TalbotCoedffranc North1,820Aberavon24476655480102001,215
Neath Port TalbotCoedffranc West1,958Aberavon30077663510116001,306
Neath Port TalbotCrynant1,448Neath2305391537017100992
Neath Port TalbotCwmllynfell891Neath14137192306600610
Neath Port TalbotCymmer2,131Aberavon1821,0861453085001,420
Neath Port TalbotDyffryn2,388Neath41077535670350001,637
Neath Port TalbotGlyncorrwg827Aberavon76404122303700552
Neath Port TalbotGlynneath2,601Neath42495931700299001,783
Neath Port TalbotGodre'r graig1,236Neath2124401331015100847
Neath Port TalbotGwaun-Cae-Gurwen2,207Neath36284321580229001,513
Neath Port TalbotGwynfi1,027Aberavon85515132704400684
Neath Port TalbotLower Brynamman1,005Neath135467102105500688
Neath Port TalbotNeath East4,860Neath6532,035691260448003,331
Neath Port TalbotNeath North3,023Neath4131,43133670129002,073
Neath Port TalbotNeath South3,758Neath5351,66153920235002,576
Neath Port TalbotOnllwyn901Neath134394132305400618
Neath Port TalbotPelenna871Neath1362881524013300596
Neath Port TalbotPontardawe4,126Neath7181,450441080508002,828
Neath Port TalbotResolven2,384Neath3401,01128650190001,634
Neath Port TalbotRhos1,873Neath37961721500218001,285
Neath Port TalbotSeven Sisters1,608Neath2776762043086001,102
Neath Port TalbotTonna1,889Neath29683119420105001,293
Neath Port TalbotTrebanos1,055Neath1893351229015800723
Neath Port TalbotYstalyfera2,298Neath36182827620297001,575
 Total76,055 11,36430,9691,0041,94206,4690051,748

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Neath. Please note that the wards used are those of 2015 in order to be consistent with those used by the Boundary Commissions.


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