Neath: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Neath: Overview

 Predicted winner: LAB 
 Acual winner: LAB 

MP at 2019: Christina Rees  (LAB)
County/Area: West Glamorgan (Wales)
Electorate: 56,416
Turnout: 65.2%
2019
Votes
2019
Share
Predicted
Votes
LAB15,92043.3%44.4%
CON10,28328.0%28.7%
Plaid4,49512.2%11.6%
Brexit3,1848.7%8.4%
LIB1,4854.0%4.1%
Green7282.0%2.4%
OTH6611.8%0.5%
LAB Majority5,63715.3%Pred Maj 15.7%
Chance of
winning
LAB
76%
CON
22%
Plaid
1%
Brexit
0%
LIB
0%
Green
0%
OTH
0%

Neath : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Neath constituency, the 'Wales' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat WalesAll GB
Party Winner 2019LABLABCON
Party Winner 2017LABLABCON
Party Winner 2015LABLABCON
Economic Position18° Left9° Left
National Position2° Nat
Social Position2° Lib2° Lib
TribeTradition
EU Leave %55%53%52%
British Identity20%26%29%
Good Health45%47%48%
UK Born98%95%88%
Good Education32%36%39%
Good Job46%46%51%
High SEC43%46%51%
Average Age50.449.648.5
ABC1 Class43%47%54%

Neath ranks #293 for "Leave", #584 for "Right", #343 for "National" and #474 for "Social" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery GlobalGlobalCentristNationalVery Nat
Social PositionVery LibLiberalModerateConservativeVery Cons
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Neath: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

Neath: Ward-by-ward

Workings for Neath

This section gives an estimate of the votes cast in each ward of Neath at the general election of 2019. The official ward breakdowns are not officially tabulated or published, so these numbers are only approximate. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2019, and also to predict how they will vote at the next election. These estimates are based both on the recent local election results and the Census 2011 demography in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Usuallly each ward lies entirely within a single constituency, but some large wards are split between several constituencies (particularly in Scotland and Northern Ireland). The electorate figure shown is the estimate of the electorate which is common to both the constituency and the particular ward, and can be very small.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are a few problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Because not all parties have a candidate in each ward, and sometimes there is only a single candidate elected unopposed, the local election results can understate a party's true support. To correct for this, we also use Census demography to make an alternative estimate of how the ward voted in the general election, based on any demographic differences between the ward and the seat overall.

Both method are then combined together, and the votes are subject to a final adjustment to make sure that the totals over the wards add up to the general election seat total, as they must.

Raw vote and Estimated General Election vote

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the seat of Neath. The first block shows the actual results. The second block shows the estimated general election votes for each ward after all the processes are complete.

NeathActual Results
DistrictWardElection
Year
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Plaid
Votes
OTH
Votes
Neath Port TalbotAberdulais201204310002900
Neath Port TalbotAllt-wen201204630002100
Neath Port TalbotBlaengwrach201203630002900
Neath Port TalbotBryn-côch North201201780006770
Neath Port TalbotBryn-côch South201201,5590001,5690
Neath Port TalbotCadoxton201202961850000
Neath Port TalbotCimla201201,655226000183
Neath Port TalbotCrynant201203700002800
Neath Port TalbotCwmllynfell201203480001100
Neath Port TalbotDyffryn20127800001,0000
Neath Port TalbotGlynneath201201,1220001,2450
Neath Port TalbotGodre'r graig201202860003000
Neath Port TalbotGwaun-Cae-Gurwen201204840003520
Neath Port TalbotLower Brynamman20120-100000
Neath Port TalbotNeath East201202,5390001,2080
Neath Port TalbotNeath North20121881,3370000341
Neath Port TalbotNeath South201201,383000299397
Neath Port TalbotOnllwyn20120328000960
Neath Port TalbotPelenna2012064000227252
Neath Port TalbotPontardawe201201,3410001,5860
Neath Port TalbotResolven201207290002780
Neath Port TalbotRhos20120393000265223
Neath Port TalbotSeven Sisters201202410000764
Neath Port TalbotTonna201205580000328
Neath Port TalbotTrebanos2012016600030253
Neath Port TalbotYstalyfera201204220005910

The raw results and adjusted for turnout and combined with the implied results from the Census Demography calculation, and then adjusted to match the general election totals. The results of these calculations are shown in the table below.

NeathEst. 2019 General Election Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
Brexit
Votes
Green
Votes
Plaid
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Neath Port TalbotAberdulais1,83634150449100241580211,197
Neath Port TalbotAllt-wen1,7603274865292241450201,146
Neath Port TalbotBlaengwrach1,522280428359219120018992
Neath Port TalbotBryn-côch North1,7183873575891241820201,119
Neath Port TalbotBryn-côch South4,4698661,153134231604150532,912
Neath Port TalbotCadoxton1,28925336148661780015840
Neath Port TalbotCimla2,996544894103161381760351,951
Neath Port TalbotCrynant1,462269396378718129017953
Neath Port TalbotCwmllynfell90016625924531162010585
Neath Port TalbotDyffryn2,41246159563143332480281,571
Neath Port TalbotGlynneath2,62748671363156332290311,711
Neath Port TalbotGodre'r graig1,248233333307417113015815
Neath Port TalbotGwaun-Cae-Gurwen2,22940762354131281830261,452
Neath Port TalbotLower Brynamman1,01517332225591258012661
Neath Port TalbotNeath East4,9097681,554104284643660583,198
Neath Port TalbotNeath North3,0534891,02173163381690371,990
Neath Port TalbotNeath South3,7966261,21294207472430452,474
Neath Port TalbotOnllwyn91016527322561155011593
Neath Port TalbotPelenna88016222122541293010574
Neath Port TalbotPontardawe4,1677591,118105231563960492,714
Neath Port TalbotResolven2,40842472059139311670281,568
Neath Port TalbotRhos1,89240344760104251730221,234
Neath Port TalbotSeven Sisters1,6243234693710019920191,059
Neath Port TalbotTonna1,90835157154105241150221,242
Neath Port TalbotTrebanos1,066207258276414112012694
Neath Port TalbotYstalyfera2,32141363152142302170271,512
 Total56,41710,28315,9191,4843,1857294,496066136,757

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Neath

This table shows the predicted general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Neath.

NeathPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
Brexit
Votes
Green
Votes
Plaid
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Neath Port TalbotAberdulais1,836349517509728149061,196
Neath Port TalbotAllt-wen1,760335498538928137061,146
Neath Port TalbotBlaengwrach1,52228743935892311305991
Neath Port TalbotBryn-côch North1,718395370598829172061,119
Neath Port TalbotBryn-côch South4,4698871,187135225713920152,912
Neath Port TalbotCadoxton1,2892583694864207604839
Neath Port TalbotCimla2,996556914104157451660101,952
Neath Port TalbotCrynant1,46227640737852212205954
Neath Port TalbotCwmllynfell9001702652452135903586
Neath Port TalbotDyffryn2,4124736146413939234081,571
Neath Port TalbotGlynneath2,6274987336415240216091,712
Neath Port TalbotGodre'r graig1,24823934330722010704815
Neath Port TalbotGwaun-Cae-Gurwen2,2294176395512733173071,451
Neath Port TalbotLower Brynamman1,0151773292557145503660
Neath Port TalbotNeath East4,9097901,589105276763460163,198
Neath Port TalbotNeath North3,0535021,04174158451600101,990
Neath Port TalbotNeath South3,7966421,23895201562300132,475
Neath Port TalbotOnllwyn9101692792254135203592
Neath Port TalbotPelenna8801662282253148803574
Neath Port TalbotPontardawe4,1677791,150106225673740142,715
Neath Port TalbotResolven2,4084347376013537158081,569
Neath Port TalbotRhos1,8924124616110130164061,235
Neath Port TalbotSeven Sisters1,62433048037972387051,059
Neath Port TalbotTonna1,9083595845510228109061,243
Neath Port TalbotTrebanos1,06621226627621710603693
Neath Port TalbotYstalyfera2,3214246495313836205081,513
 Total56,41710,53616,3261,5003,0958674,250018636,760

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official. The wards used are those of 2015, to match those used by the Boundary Commissions.


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