Neath: Seat Details

WARNING: This is the page for the old seat. The new seats, which will be used at the next general election, are more relevant. See the new seat of Neath and Swansea East, or click here to find another new seat.

Neath: Overview

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2019:Christina Rees  (LAB)
County/Area:West Glamorgan (Wales)
Electorate:56,419
Turnout:65.1%

Party2019
Votes
2019
Share
Pred
Votes
LAB15,92043.3%46.8%
CON10,28328.0%15.2%
Plaid4,49512.2%18.9%
Reform3,1848.7%11.4%
LIB1,4854.0%3.0%
Green7282.0%3.6%
OTH6611.8%1.0%
LAB Majority5,63715.3%27.9%
Pred Maj
Chance of winning
LAB
97%
CON
1%
Plaid
2%
Reform
0%
LIB
0%
Green
0%
OTH
0%

Neath : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Neath constituency, the 'Wales' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2021 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat WalesAll GB
Party Winner 2019LABLABCON
Party Winner 2017LABLABCON
Party Winner 2015LABLABCON
Economic Position18° Left8° Left
National Position2° Nat
Social Position2° Lib2° Lib
TribeTradition
EU Leave %55%53%52%
Average Age52.251.149.5
Good Education44%49%49%
Employed51%53%58%
Homeowner70%67%63%
Car owner81%81%77%
Married45%44%45%
Ethnic White98%94%83%
Christian47%47%50%
ABC1 Class50%52%56%
Gross Household Income£34,101£36,386£42,397
Deprivation57%54%52%
Average House Price£152,818£193,404£313,528

Neath ranks #293 for "Leave", #584 for "Economic Right Position", #343 for "National Position" and #474 for "Social Conservative Position" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions
View descriptions and colour schemes of the table

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class), 'Gross Household Income', 'Individual Disposable Income' and 'Average House Price' all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic Position Very Left Left Centrist Right Very Right
National Position Very Global Global Centrist National Very Nat
Social Position Very Lib Liberal Moderate Conservative Very Cons
EU Leave % Very Remain Remain Balanced Leave Very Leave
Census Very Low Low Medium High Very High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
Average AgeAge (TS007A)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
Good EducationHighest level of qualification (TS067)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
EmployedEconomic activity status (TS066)Part-time, full-time employed or self-employed
HomeownerTenure (TS054)Own a property with or without a mortgage, or with shared ownership
Car ownerCar or van availability (TS045)In a household with at least one car or van
MarriedLegal partnership status (TS002)Married or civil partnership
Ethnic WhiteEthnic group (TS021)White British, Irish, Gypsy, Roma or other
ChristianReligion (TS030)Christian or Christian denomination (NI)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (SG002)Approximated social grades A, B and C1
Gross Household IncomeMedian gross household income, including cash benefits, but before tax. Values as at 2018. Source: ONS Small area estimates (E&W), Scottish Government (Scotland), plus additional Electoral Calculus modelling.
DeprivationHouseholds by deprivation dimensions (TS011)Fraction of households which are classed as deprived on one or more of the following four indicators: employment (unemployed or long-term sick); education (no good GCSE); health and disability (bad health or long-term problem); and housing (overcrowded, shared or no central heating).
Average House PriceAverage residential property price (including flats and houses) around 2019. Sources: Land Registry, Statistics Scotland, NI Department of Finance

Neath: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2022, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors


Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Neath

This table shows the predicted future general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Neath.

NeathActualPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
GE19
Winner
Pred
Winner
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
Reform
Votes
Green
Votes
Plaid
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Neath Port TalbotAberdulais1,699LABLAB17455630127451880141,134
Neath Port TalbotAllt-wen2,030LABLAB22366644149532610171,413
Neath Port TalbotBlaengwrach and Glynneath West2,227LABLAB1746264118349273091,355
Neath Port TalbotBryn-coch North1,811CONLAB33344740141462750121,294
Neath Port TalbotBryn-coch South4,032CONLAB5461,087843071145840332,755
Neath Port TalbotCadoxton1,359LABLAB1813943511037158012927
Neath Port TalbotCimla and Pelenna4,025LABLAB3831,4141033031053600262,694
Neath Port TalbotCrynant, Onllywn and Seven Sisters3,999LABLAB3491,32183335963290152,528
Neath Port TalbotCwmllynfell and Ystalyfera3,099LABLAB27094257229674510202,036
Neath Port TalbotDyffryn2,902LABLAB34379653228754710251,991
Neath Port TalbotGlynneath Central and East1,851LABLAB1994804515640247061,173
Neath Port TalbotGodre'r Graig1,507LABLAB14342626110352510131,004
Neath Port TalbotGwaun-Cae-Gurwen and Lower Brynamman3,297LABLAB2561,13170247683200102,102
Neath Port TalbotNeath East4,461LABLAB3041,38362291945920392,765
Neath Port TalbotNeath North2,888LABLAB2661,01345205662350241,854
Neath Port TalbotNeath South3,648LABLAB2781,19356246864640312,354
Neath Port TalbotPontardawe3,910LABLAB3981,18073282895800302,632
Neath Port TalbotResolven and Tonna4,304LABLAB3891,341863321035030232,777
Neath Port TalbotRhos1,974LABLAB29058844156512600161,405
Neath Port TalbotTrebanos1,396LABLAB1474132710032227011957
 Total56,419LABLAB5,64617,3971,1044,2371,3517,029038637,150

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official. The wards used are those of 2023.


© 2024 Electoral Calculus Ltd
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