Neath: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Neath: Overview

 Prediction: LAB hold 

MP at 2019: Christina Rees  (LAB)
County/Area: West Glamorgan (Wales)
Electorate: 56,416
Turnout: 65.2%
2019
Votes
2019
Share
Predicted
Votes
LAB15,92043.3%47.1%
CON10,28328.0%26.7%
Plaid4,49512.2%12.2%
Brexit3,1848.7%5.6%
LIB1,4854.0%2.2%
Green7282.0%2.7%
OTH6611.8%3.5%
LAB Majority5,63715.3%Pred Maj 20.4%
Chance of
winning
LAB
89%
CON
11%
Plaid
0%
Brexit
0%
LIB
0%
Green
0%
OTH
0%

Neath : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Neath constituency, the 'Wales' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat WalesAll GB
Party Winner 2019LABLABCON
Party Winner 2017LABLABCON
Party Winner 2015LABLABCON
Economic Position18° Left8° Left
National Position2° Nat
Social Position2° Lib2° Lib
TribeTradition
EU Leave %55%53%52%
British Identity20%26%29%
Good Health45%47%48%
UK Born98%94%87%
Good Education32%37%39%
Good Job46%46%51%
High SEC43%46%51%
Average Age50.449.548.3
ABC1 Class43%48%54%

Neath ranks #293 for "Leave", #584 for "Right", #343 for "National" and #474 for "Social" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery GlobalGlobalCentristNationalVery Nat
Social PositionVery LibLiberalModerateConservativeVery Cons
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Neath: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2020, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Neath

This table shows the predicted future general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Neath.

NeathActualPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
GE19
Winner
Pred
Winner
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
Brexit
Votes
Green
Votes
Plaid
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Neath Port TalbotAberdulais1,702LABLAB313569246429660441,109
Neath Port TalbotAllt-wen2,021LABLAB3676162672341720301,317
Neath Port TalbotBlaengwrach1,492LABLAB232416158426144056973
Neath Port TalbotBryn-coch North1,810CONCON4674062564291600281,179
Neath Port TalbotBryn-coch South4,558CONLAB1,0001,104861611184150852,969
Neath Port TalbotCadoxton1,355LABLAB268359314822101055884
Neath Port TalbotCimla3,130LABLAB4571,1798891491200552,039
Neath Port TalbotCrynant1,520LABLAB271446206129118045990
Neath Port TalbotCwmllynfell940LABLAB15429110351891014613
Neath Port TalbotDyffryn2,417LABLAB4266813495452550391,575
Neath Port TalbotGlynneath2,619LABLAB45968036107462900861,704
Neath Port TalbotGodre'r graig1,508LABLAB262403165727179040984
Neath Port TalbotGwaun-Cae-Gurwen2,225LABLAB3547642280341440521,450
Neath Port TalbotLower Brynamman1,060LABLAB16039713381548018689
Neath Port TalbotNeath East4,461LABLAB6291,526611657734001102,908
Neath Port TalbotNeath North2,941LABLAB5011,0803491371010731,917
Neath Port TalbotNeath South3,652LABLAB5291,25050130623030552,379
Neath Port TalbotOnllwyn898LABLAB12734710321432023585
Neath Port TalbotPelenna890LABLAB148232153714103030579
Neath Port TalbotPontardawe4,137LABLAB7601,21551148713900632,698
Neath Port TalbotResolven2,374LABLAB3727703193411610791,547
Neath Port TalbotRhos1,983LABLAB4485292466311560381,292
Neath Port TalbotSeven Sisters1,561LABLAB251526176127790561,017
Neath Port TalbotTonna1,948LABLAB3525482473311840571,269
Neath Port TalbotTrebanos1,082LABLAB180322143818112022706
Neath Port TalbotYstalyfera2,134LABLAB3296412678342330491,390
 Total56,418LABLAB9,81617,2978032,0699784,49701,30236,762

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official. The wards used are those of 2020.


Go back to home page.

© 2020 Electoral Calculus Ltd
Powered by TigerLib (24-Jul-2020 19:51, Py3L, sc3157)