Tonbridge: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Tonbridge: Overview

 Projection: CON seat 

Implied MP at 2017: Tom Tugendhat  (CON)
County/Area: Kent (South East)
Electorate: 78,340
Turnout: 73.3%

 Implied 2017 VotesImplied 2017 Share
CON Majority22,03538.4%

See overview of other seats in South East.

Tonbridge : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Tonbridge constituency, the 'South East' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatSouth EastAll GB
Economic Position7° Right4° Right
National Position4° Nat3° Nat1° Int
EU Leave %52%52%52%
British Identity28%29%29%
Good Health50%49%48%
UK Born92%88%88%
Good Education43%43%39%
Good Job59%56%51%
High SEC62%57%51%
Average Age51.049.248.5
ABC1 Class63%60%53%

Tonbridge ranks #334 for "Leave", #155 for "Right" and #263 for "National" out of 600 new seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Tonbridge: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015


This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Tonbridge been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

List of old seats forming part of Tonbridge

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Tonbridge and Malling

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Tonbridge and Malling, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Tonbridge and MallingTransfer-adjusted Results
New SeatCON
SevenoaksCowden and Hever1,611Tonbridge9091763541260001,187
SevenoaksEdenbridge North and East3,600Tonbridge1,727620122561280002,653
SevenoaksEdenbridge South and West3,348Tonbridge1,474693102971000002,466
Tonbridge and MallingBorough Green and Long Mill5,386Tonbridge2,6648111771711460003,969
Tonbridge and MallingCage Green3,576Tonbridge1,728603122541270002,634
Tonbridge and MallingCastle3,882Tonbridge1,759540356571480002,860
Tonbridge and MallingDowns and Mereworth3,288Tonbridge1,74341472851080002,422
Tonbridge and MallingEast Malling3,964Chatham and Malling1,558767382127870002,921
Tonbridge and MallingHadlow and East Peckham5,640Tonbridge2,8188301631531930004,157
Tonbridge and MallingHigham3,719Tonbridge1,838591128541300002,741
Tonbridge and MallingHildenborough3,847Tonbridge1,8155332491031330002,833
Tonbridge and MallingJudd4,036Tonbridge1,5848492641201560002,973
Tonbridge and MallingKings Hill6,058Chatham and Malling3,191816193167970004,464
Tonbridge and MallingMedway4,243Tonbridge1,7349581721231390003,126
Tonbridge and MallingTrench3,758Tonbridge1,4579311711101010002,770
Tonbridge and MallingVauxhall3,922Tonbridge1,491858333541530002,889
Tonbridge and MallingWateringbury1,631Tonbridge8752094122550001,202
Tonbridge and MallingWest Malling and Leybourne4,564Chatham and Malling2,0276684361321010003,364
Tonbridge and MallingWrotham, Ightham and Stansted3,493Sevenoaks1,86943275871100002,573
SevenoaksLeigh and Chiddingstone Causeway1,742Tonbridge1,0211754119270001,283
SevenoaksPenshurst, Fordcombe and Chiddingstone1,926Tonbridge93823515422690001,418
 Total77,234 36,22012,7093,7881,8542,33400056,905

The full details of these calculations are given on the Tonbridge and Malling seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Tunbridge Wells

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Tunbridge Wells, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Tunbridge WellsTransfer-adjusted Results
New SeatCON
Tunbridge WellsBrenchley and Horsmonden3,805Weald of Kent1,854583154703900462,746
Tunbridge WellsBroadwater3,182Tunbridge Wells and Crowborough1,276686179694500402,295
Tunbridge WellsCapel1,768Tonbridge768262191181900171,275
Tunbridge WellsCulverden5,942Tunbridge Wells and Crowborough2,2991,13545011723300534,287
Tunbridge WellsGoudhurst and Lamberhurst3,574Weald of Kent1,781484177623700372,578
Tunbridge WellsHawkhurst and Sandhurst4,603Weald of Kent2,159705256905400563,320
Tunbridge WellsPaddock Wood East3,088Weald of Kent1,381540178653800262,228
Tunbridge WellsPaddock Wood West2,823Weald of Kent1,177595152593200212,036
Tunbridge WellsPantiles and St Mark's5,049Tunbridge Wells and Crowborough2,2067683489118800413,642
Tunbridge WellsPark5,281Tunbridge Wells and Crowborough2,1949614341017400463,810
Tunbridge WellsPembury4,403Tonbridge1,980755261905100403,177
Tunbridge WellsRusthall3,631Tunbridge Wells and Crowborough1,1918842937414500332,620
Tunbridge WellsSt James'4,536Tunbridge Wells and Crowborough1,4381,032591986900453,273
Tunbridge WellsSt John's5,431Tunbridge Wells and Crowborough1,8421,11560310620500473,918
Tunbridge WellsSherwood5,007Tunbridge Wells and Crowborough1,8841,2162971066400453,612
Tunbridge WellsSouthborough and High Brooms5,496Tonbridge1,8021,6043351146600433,964
Tunbridge WellsSouthborough North3,165Tonbridge1,414533206603600342,283
Tunbridge WellsSpeldhurst and Bidborough4,353Tonbridge2,208532250734500323,140
 Total75,137 30,85414,3905,3551,4631,4400070254,204

The full details of these calculations are given on the Tunbridge Wells seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Tonbridge

The new seat of Tonbridge is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Tonbridge
Old Seat CON
SevenoaksCowden and Hever1,611Tonbridge and Malling9091763541260001,187
SevenoaksEdenbridge North and East3,600Tonbridge and Malling1,727620122561280002,653
SevenoaksEdenbridge South and West3,348Tonbridge and Malling1,474693102971000002,466
SevenoaksLeigh and Chiddingstone Causeway1,742Tonbridge and Malling1,0211754119270001,283
SevenoaksPenshurst, Fordcombe and Chiddingstone1,926Tonbridge and Malling93823515422690001,418
Tonbridge and MallingBorough Green and Long Mill5,386Tonbridge and Malling2,6648111771711460003,969
Tonbridge and MallingCage Green3,576Tonbridge and Malling1,728603122541270002,634
Tonbridge and MallingCastle3,882Tonbridge and Malling1,759540356571480002,860
Tonbridge and MallingDowns and Mereworth3,288Tonbridge and Malling1,74341472851080002,422
Tonbridge and MallingHadlow and East Peckham5,640Tonbridge and Malling2,8188301631531930004,157
Tonbridge and MallingHigham3,719Tonbridge and Malling1,838591128541300002,741
Tonbridge and MallingHildenborough3,847Tonbridge and Malling1,8155332491031330002,833
Tonbridge and MallingJudd4,036Tonbridge and Malling1,5848492641201560002,973
Tonbridge and MallingMedway4,243Tonbridge and Malling1,7349581721231390003,126
Tonbridge and MallingTrench3,758Tonbridge and Malling1,4579311711101010002,770
Tonbridge and MallingVauxhall3,922Tonbridge and Malling1,491858333541530002,889
Tonbridge and MallingWateringbury1,631Tonbridge and Malling8752094122550001,202
Tunbridge WellsCapel1,768Tunbridge Wells768262191181900171,275
Tunbridge WellsPembury4,403Tunbridge Wells1,980755261905100403,177
Tunbridge WellsSouthborough and High Brooms5,496Tunbridge Wells1,8021,6043351146600433,964
Tunbridge WellsSouthborough North3,165Tunbridge Wells1,414533206603600342,283
Tunbridge WellsSpeldhurst and Bidborough4,353Tunbridge Wells2,208532250734500323,140
 Total78,340 35,74713,7123,9451,6962,1560016657,422

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Tonbridge. Please note that the wards used are those of 2015 in order to be consistent with those used by the Boundary Commissions.

© 2019 Electoral Calculus Ltd
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