User-defined Prediction

The predicted results in the country, given the National and Regional levels of support which you entered, are as follows.

National and Regional Prediction: Conservative short 34 of majority

Party2010 Votes2010 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesNet ChangePred Seats
CON 37.0%307 36.0%2540-15292
LAB 29.7%258 32.0%5051-1257
LIB 23.6%57 8.0%048-489
UKIP 3.2%0 0.0%00+00
Green 1.0%1 0.0%01-10
SNP 1.7%6 3.8%360+3642
PlaidC 0.6%3 0.6%00+03
Minor 3.4%0 19.7%290+2929
N.Ire 18 00+018

The prediction was made with the following information about Regional support. The table shows the support levels entered and the difference in swing implied by those levels compared with that inferred from the national support figures (marked 'SD' for swing-difference).

AreaCON %LAB %LIB %UKIP %Green %NAT %Weight % CON SD%LAB SD%LIB SD%UKIP SD%Green SD%NAT SD%
  Scotland 19.026.53.30.00.044.48.54.0-15.20.42.50.324.5
  North East 0.00.00.00.00.04.1-22.4-44.6-7.80.50.7
  North West 28.044.15.80.00.011.3-1.75.80.3-0.00.4
  Yorks/Humber 34.034.87.00.00.08.32.90.60.00.30.1
  Wales 25.138.54.50.00.011.35.10.41.50.20.70.50.0
  West Midlands 38.133.55.00.00.09.10.43.30.5-0.80.4
  East Midlands 38.134.55.60.00.07.7-1.44.70.7-0.10.4
  Anglia 46.522.17.70.00.09.91.33.2-0.3-1.1-0.5
  South West 42.318.018.40.00.09.61.33.2-0.3-1.3-0.2
  London 33.538.96.50.00.011.71.03.50.51.4-0.6
  South East 49.018.511.00.00.014.81.54.41.1-1.0-0.5
 Average 36.032.08.00.00.0100.00.00.00.00.00.0

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List of predicted seat changes

SeatCounty/AreaPredicted Change  MP as at 2010
Aberdeen NorthGrampianNATgain fromLAB: Frank Doran
Aberdeen SouthGrampianNATgain fromLAB: Anne Begg
Aberdeenshire West and KincardineGrampianNATgain fromLIB: Sir Robert Smith
Amber ValleyDerbyshireLABgain fromCON: Nigel Mills
Argyll and ButeArgyll and ButeNATgain fromLIB: Alan Reid
Ayr Carrick and CumnockAyrshire and LanarkNATgain fromLAB: Sandra Osborne
Ayrshire CentralAyrshire and LanarkNATgain fromLAB: Brian Donohoe
Ayrshire North and ArranAyrshire and LanarkNATgain fromLAB: Katy Clark
BedfordBedfordshireLABgain fromCON: Richard Fuller
Bermondsey and Old SouthwarkSouthwarkLABgain fromLIB: Simon Hughes
Berwick-upon-TweedNorthumberlandOTHgain fromLIB: Alan Beith
Berwickshire, Roxburgh and SelkirkBordersNATgain fromLIB: Michael Moore
Birmingham YardleyBirminghamLABgain fromLIB: John Hemming
Bishop AucklandDurhamOTHgain fromLAB: Helen Goodman
Blackpool North and CleveleysLancashireLABgain fromCON: Paul Maynard
BlaydonNewcastle areaOTHgain fromLAB: David Anderson
Blyth ValleyNorthumberlandOTHgain fromLAB: Ronnie Campbell
Bradford EastWest YorkshireLABgain fromLIB: David Ward
Brecon and RadnorshirePowysCONgain fromLIB: Roger Williams
Brent CentralBrentLABgain fromLIB: Sarah Teather
Brentford and IsleworthHounslowLABgain fromCON: Mary Macleod
Brighton KemptownEast SussexLABgain fromCON: Simon Kirby
Brighton PavilionEast SussexLABgain fromGreen: Caroline Lucas
Bristol WestBristol areaLABgain fromLIB: Stephen Williams
BroxtoweNottinghamshireLABgain fromCON: Anna Soubry
BurnleyLancashireLABgain fromLIB: Gordon Birtwistle
Bury NorthWestern ManchesterLABgain fromCON: David Nuttall
Caithness Sutherland and Easter RossHighlandNATgain fromLIB: John Thurso
CambridgeCambridgeshireLABgain fromLIB: Julian Huppert
Cardiff CentralSouth GlamorganLABgain fromLIB: Jenny Willott
Cardiff NorthSouth GlamorganLABgain fromCON: Jonathan Evans
CarlisleCumbriaLABgain fromCON: John Stevenson
Carshalton and WallingtonSuttonCONgain fromLIB: Tom Brake
CheadleEastern ManchesterCONgain fromLIB: Mark Hunter
CheltenhamGloucestershireCONgain fromLIB: Martin Horwood
Chester, City ofCheshireLABgain fromCON: Stephen Mosley
ChippenhamWiltshireCONgain fromLIB: Duncan Hames
ColchesterEssexCONgain fromLIB: Bob Russell
CorbyNorthamptonshireLABgain fromCON: Louise Bagshaw
Cornwall NorthCornwallCONgain fromLIB: Dan Rogerson
DarlingtonDurhamOTHgain fromLAB: Jenny Chapman
Devon NorthDevonCONgain fromLIB: Nick Harvey
Dorset Mid and Poole NorthDorsetCONgain fromLIB: Annette Brooke
Dumfries and GallowayDumfries and GallowayCONgain fromLAB: Russell Brown
Dunbartonshire EastGlasgow areaNATgain fromLIB: Jo Swinson
Dundee WestTaysideNATgain fromLAB: James McGovern
Dunfermline and West FifeFifeNATgain fromLAB: Thomas Docherty
Durham NorthDurhamOTHgain fromLAB: Kevan Jones
Durham North WestDurhamOTHgain fromLAB: Pat Glass
Durham, City ofDurhamOTHgain fromLAB: Roberta Blackman-Woods
EasingtonDurhamOTHgain fromLAB: Grahame Morris
East Kilbride, Strathaven and LesmahagowAyrshire and LanarkNATgain fromLAB: Michael McCann
East LothianEdinburgh areaNATgain fromLAB: Fiona O'Donnell
EastbourneEast SussexCONgain fromLIB: Stephen Lloyd
EastleighHampshireCONgain fromLIB: Christopher Huhne
Edinburgh EastEdinburgh areaNATgain fromLAB: Sheila Gilmore
Edinburgh North and LeithEdinburgh areaNATgain fromLAB: Mark Lazarowicz
Edinburgh SouthEdinburgh areaNATgain fromLAB: Ian Murray
Edinburgh South WestEdinburgh areaNATgain fromLAB: Alistair Darling
Edinburgh WestEdinburgh areaNATgain fromLIB: Michael Crockart
Enfield NorthEnfieldLABgain fromCON: Nick de Bois
ErewashDerbyshireLABgain fromCON: Jessica Lee
FalkirkCentralNATgain fromLAB: Eric Joyce
Fife North EastFifeNATgain fromLIB: Sir Menzies Campbell
GatesheadNewcastle areaOTHgain fromLAB: Ian Mearns
Glasgow CentralGlasgow areaNATgain fromLAB: Anas Sarwar
Glasgow NorthGlasgow areaNATgain fromLAB: Ann McKechin
Glasgow North WestGlasgow areaNATgain fromLAB: John Robertson
Glasgow SouthGlasgow areaNATgain fromLAB: Tom Harris
GloucesterGloucestershireLABgain fromCON: Richard Graham
GordonGrampianNATgain fromLIB: Malcolm Bruce
Halesowen and Rowley RegisBlack CountryLABgain fromCON: James Morris
HartlepoolTeessideOTHgain fromLAB: Iain Wright
Hastings and RyeEast SussexLABgain fromCON: Amber Rudd
HendonBarnetLABgain fromCON: Matthew Offord
HexhamNorthumberlandOTHgain fromCON: Guy Opperman
High PeakDerbyshireLABgain fromCON: Andrew Bingham
Hornsey and Wood GreenHaringeyLABgain fromLIB: Lynne Featherstone
Houghton and Sunderland SouthNewcastle areaOTHgain fromLAB: Bridget Phillipson
HoveEast SussexLABgain fromCON: Mike Weatherley
Inverness Nairn Badenoch and StrathspeyHighlandNATgain fromLIB: Danny Alexander
IpswichSuffolkLABgain fromCON: Ben Gummer
JarrowNewcastle areaOTHgain fromLAB: Stephen Hepburn
Kilmarnock and LoudounAyrshire and LanarkNATgain fromLAB: Cathy Jamieson
Kingston and SurbitonKingston Upon ThamesCONgain fromLIB: Edward Davey
Lanark and Hamilton EastAyrshire and LanarkNATgain fromLAB: Jimmy Hood
Lancaster and FleetwoodLancashireLABgain fromCON: Eric Ollerenshaw
LewesEast SussexCONgain fromLIB: Norman Baker
LincolnLincolnshireLABgain fromCON: Karl McCartney
Linlithgow and East FalkirkEdinburgh areaNATgain fromLAB: Michael Connarty
LivingstonEdinburgh areaNATgain fromLAB: Graeme Morrice
LoughboroughLeicestershireLABgain fromCON: Nicky Morgan
Manchester WithingtonCentral ManchesterLABgain fromLIB: John Leech
MiddlesbroughTeessideOTHgain fromLAB: Sir Stuart Bell
Middlesbrough South and Cleveland EastTeessideOTHgain fromLAB: Tom Blenkinsop
MidlothianEdinburgh areaNATgain fromLAB: David Hamilton
Morecambe and LunesdaleLancashireLABgain fromCON: David Morris
Newcastle upon Tyne CentralNewcastle areaOTHgain fromLAB: Chi Onwurah
Newcastle upon Tyne EastNewcastle areaOTHgain fromLAB: Nick Brown
Newcastle upon Tyne NorthNewcastle areaOTHgain fromLAB: Catherine McKinnell
Northampton NorthNorthamptonshireLABgain fromCON: Michael Ellis
Norwich SouthNorfolkLABgain fromLIB: Simon Wright
Ochil and South PerthshireCentralNATgain fromLAB: Gordon Banks
Orkney and ShetlandOrkney and ShetlandNATgain fromLIB: Alistair Carmichael
PendleLancashireLABgain fromCON: Andrew Stephenson
Plymouth Sutton and DevonportDevonLABgain fromCON: Oliver Colvile
Portsmouth SouthHampshireCONgain fromLIB: Mike Hancock
RedcarTeessideOTHgain fromLIB: Ian Swales
Ross Skye and LochaberHighlandNATgain fromLIB: Charles Kennedy
Rossendale and DarwenLancashireLABgain fromCON: Jake Berry
SedgefieldDurhamOTHgain fromLAB: Phil Wilson
SherwoodNottinghamshireLABgain fromCON: Mark Spencer
SolihullCoventry and SolihullCONgain fromLIB: Lorely Burt
Somerton and FromeSomersetCONgain fromLIB: David Heath
South ShieldsNewcastle areaOTHgain fromLAB: David Miliband
SouthportMerseysideCONgain fromLIB: John Pugh
St Austell and NewquayCornwallCONgain fromLIB: Stephen Gilbert
St IvesCornwallCONgain fromLIB: Andrew George
StirlingCentralNATgain fromLAB: Anne McGuire
Stockton NorthTeessideOTHgain fromLAB: Alex Cunningham
Stockton SouthTeessideOTHgain fromCON: James Wharton
StroudGloucestershireLABgain fromCON: Neil Carmichael
Sunderland CentralNewcastle areaOTHgain fromLAB: Julie Elliott
Sutton and CheamSuttonCONgain fromLIB: Paul Burstow
Taunton DeaneSomersetCONgain fromLIB: Jeremy Browne
Thornbury and YateBristol areaCONgain fromLIB: Steve Webb
ThurrockEssexLABgain fromCON: Jackie Doyle-Price
TorbayDevonCONgain fromLIB: Adrian Sanders
TynemouthNewcastle areaOTHgain fromLAB: Alan Campbell
Tyneside NorthNewcastle areaOTHgain fromLAB: Mary Glindon
WansbeckNorthumberlandOTHgain fromLAB: Ian Lavery
Warrington SouthCheshireLABgain fromCON: David Mowat
Warwickshire NorthWarwickshireLABgain fromCON: Dan Byles
Washington and Sunderland WestNewcastle areaOTHgain fromLAB: Sharon Hodgson
WaveneySuffolkLABgain fromCON: Peter Aldous
Weaver ValeCheshireLABgain fromCON: Graham Evans
WellsSomersetCONgain fromLIB: Tessa Munt
Wirral WestMerseysideLABgain fromCON: Esther McVey
Wolverhampton South WestBlack CountryLABgain fromCON: Paul Uppal
WorcesterHereford and WorcestershireLABgain fromCON: Robin Walker

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2010. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.


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