CURRENT PREDICTION
UK General Election Prediction
Our current poll-of-polls predicts what would happen if there were a general election tomorrow.
Full details of our current prediction.| Party | 2019 Votes | 2019 Seats | Pred Votes | Pred Seats |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CON | 44.7% | 365 | 33.6% | 247 |
| LAB | 33.0% | 203 | 39.6% | 315 |
| LIB | 11.8% | 11 | 9.8% | 13 |
| Reform | 2.1% | 0 | 2.3% | 0 |
| Green | 2.8% | 1 | 6.0% | 1 |
| SNP | 4.0% | 48 | 3.8% | 50 |
| PlaidC | 0.5% | 4 | 0.9% | 5 |
NEW BOUNDARIES
New UK seat proposals
Electoral Calculus analysis of the proposed new seats for the whole country shows the Conservatives gaining thirteen seats and Labour losing eight.
Now includes individual predictions of every new seat with maps, ward breakdown and demographics.
COMMENTARY
Commentary May 2022
Prof Richard Rose on why foreign photo opportunities don't win British votes.
COMMENTARY
Commentary April 2022
Prof Richard Rose on why foreign policy unites the country, but forming the next government could divide it.
POLL
Ukraine Poll March 2022
The public are keen for economic sanctions on Russia, and a majority of those with an opinion are in favour of a NATO no-fly zone in Ukraine.
MRP POLL
February VI Poll
A new MRP poll with Find Out Now shows Labour ahead of the Conservatives and likely to form a government. A third of Conservative MPs, including Boris Johnson, could lose their seats.
POLL
'Partygate' Poll
A new poll shows Labour well ahead of the Conservatives and a clear majority of the public think Boris Johnson should resign.
BY-ELECTION
Shropshire North by-election Dec 2021
Commentary on the by-election in Shropshire North, plus new polling on voting intention and asking the public if the government is incompetent, selfish and out of touch.
POLL
Regression Poll Dec 2021
Latest large-scale regression poll by Electoral Calculus and Find Out Now for the Daily Telegraph on Westminster voting intention. Conservatives and Labour now fairly equal in the polls.
BY-ELECTION
Old Bexley by-election Dec 2021
Commentary on the by-election in Old Bexley and Sidcup. The centre-right overall did better than the Conservatives.
REFERENDUM POLL
Referendum Poll April 2021
New poll by Electoral Calculus asks the public whether they want to have more referendums and what they would vote for on some hypothetical referendum questions.
POLITICAL ATTITUDES
Three-D Politics 2021
An up-to-date refresh of our unique three-D view of political attitudes shows global issues are now the most important, and analyses the prevalence of socially liberal attitudes across various identity groups.
PREDICTION DETAILS
Best predictor of the 2019 UK General Election
Using advanced mathematical regression techniques, coupled with professional but low-cost polling, Electoral Calculus made the most accurate final pre-election forecast in 2019, outperforming all the competition.
See the General Election 2019 case study.
ELECTION ANALYSIS
Which voters changed their minds in 2019, and how many voted tactically?
Read our in-depth analysis of the voter movements behind the 2019 General Election result, seeing how voters realigned by party, by group, by seat, and how many voted tactically.
POLLING ANALYSIS
Low Cost MRP Regression
Electoral Calculus has pioneered low-cost MRP regression techniques for high-quality and insightful analysis of polling data.
More detailsELECTION RESULTS
Local Election Results 2022
Our pre-election poll correctly predicted over 80pc of council results including Labour's gains in Westminster, Wandsworth and Barnet, and the four new unitary authorities. See all the details here.
LOCAL POLL
Local Election Poll 2022
Our refreshed unique MRP poll of local voting intention shows Labour set to win seats and councils, with large Conservative losses as Partygate depresses turnout.
COMMENTARY
Ukraine Commentary
The US government does not want to risk escalation with Russia over Ukraine, and most Americans agree. But the British public are not so sure, and this bodes poorly for long-term global security.
COMMENTARY
Commentary March 2022
Prof Richard Rose on why the latest polls show that Labour has a win-win knife edge for gaining Number Ten.
Fraud Poll
Fraud Poll February 2022
Find Out Now and Electoral Calculus new poll about public attitudes and experiences of fraud, including scam texts and emails.
Police Poll
Police Poll February 2022
Find Out Now and Electoral Calculus new poll for the Sunday Telegraph on public attitudes to the Police and the resignation of Cressida Dick.
NHS POLL
NHS Poll January 2022
Find Out Now and Electoral Calculus new poll for the Sunday Mirror asking the public about their confidence in the NHS and how it should be paid for.
BBC POLL
BBC Licence Fee Poll
Our new poll with Find Out Now shows a clear majority of the public think the BBC Licence fee is bad value for money and should be replaced with a subscription-style approach.
PROPERTY POLL
Property Chronicle Poll July 2021
A regression poll with Find Out Now for the Property Chronicle asked people whether they would support or oppose more house building in their own neighbourhood. Answers varied greatly depending on location.
LIVE UPDATES
Recent national opinion polls
Current state of party support nationally as measured by the opinion pollsters. Data are shown in both graphical and tabular form for national polls taken over the last month or so.
POLITICAL MAPS
Data Map
Our uniquely detailed Data Map of Britain shows twelve political and social measures including past votes and political attitudes.
All available at various geographic levels of detail including parliamentary seats, district wards, and individual neighbourhood localities.
HISTORICAL DATA
A unique electoral data archive from 1955
Data includes historical data flat files of UK elections from 1955 to date plus our track record of predictions and much more.
