CURRENT PREDICTION
UK General Election Prediction
Our current poll-of-polls predicts what would happen if there were a general election tomorrow.
Full details of our current prediction.| Party | 2019 Votes | 2019 Seats | Pred Votes | Pred Seats |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CON | 44.7% | 365 | 41.5% | 337 |
| LAB | 33.0% | 203 | 36.6% | 227 |
| LIB | 11.8% | 11 | 7.1% | 7 |
| Reform | 2.1% | 0 | 2.2% | 0 |
| Green | 2.8% | 1 | 5.0% | 1 |
| SNP | 4.0% | 48 | 4.2% | 56 |
| PlaidC | 0.5% | 4 | 0.5% | 4 |
OUR WEBSITE
New look for Electoral Calculus website
To mark the new year, we have a brand-new design for the Electoral Calculus website, making the site easier to navigate and use.
All the existing features are available, along with new pages on our services, all with a more modern design.
NEW BOUNDARIES 2023
New Seat Boundaries – Likely Impact
As the Boundary Commissions are about to begin their work on redrawing the Westminster seats, Electoral Calculus has drawn its own (unofficial) example set of seat boundaries to see what might happen.
PREDICTION DETAILS
Best predictor of the 2019 UK General Election
Using advanced mathematical regression techniques, coupled with professional but low-cost polling, Electoral Calculus made the most accurate final pre-election forecast in 2019, outperforming all the competition.
See the General Election 2019 case study.
ELECTION ANALYSIS
Which voters changed their minds in 2019, and how many voted tactically?
Read our in-depth analysis of the voter movements behind the 2019 General Election result, seeing how voters realigned by party, by group, by seat, and how many voted tactically.
POLLING ANALYSIS
Low Cost MRP Regression
Electoral Calculus has pioneered low-cost MRP regression techniques for high-quality and insightful analysis of polling data.
More detailsLIVE UPDATES
Recent national opinion polls
Current state of party support nationally as measured by the opinion pollsters. Data are shown in both graphical and tabular form for national polls taken over the last month or so.
POLITICAL MAPS
Data Map
Our uniquely detailed Data Map of Britain shows twelve political and social measures including past votes and political attitudes.
All available at various geographic levels of detail including parliamentary seats, district wards, and individual neighbourhood localities.
HISTORICAL DATA
A unique electoral data archive from 1955
Data includes historical data flat files of UK elections from 1955 to date plus our track record of predictions and much more.
