General Election Prediction

Current Prediction: Labour short 6 of majority

Party2017 Votes2017 SeatsPred VotesPred Seats
CON 43.5%318 25.3%229
LAB 41.0%262 31.5%320
LIB 7.6%12 8.5%21
UKIP 1.9%0 4.6%0
Green 1.7%1 4.4%1
SNP 3.1%35 3.9%56
PlaidC 0.5%4 0.7%4
ChUK 0.0%0 4.9%0
Brexit 0.0%0 14.5%1
Minor 0.7%0 1.7%0
N.Ire 18 18

Prediction based on opinion polls from 16 Apr 2019 to 24 Apr 2019, sampling 7,613 people.

Probability of possible outcomes

Labour majority
43%
Conservative majority
18%
No overall control
14%
Lab/Nat coalition
8%
Con/Nat coalition
6%
Lab choice of Lib/Nat
5%
Con choice of Lib/Nat
3%
Nat choice of Con/Lab
1%
Lab/Lib coalition
1%

The future is never certain. But using our advanced modelling techniques, we can estimate the probability of the various possible outcomes at the next general election. ('Nat' means SNP+PlaidC)

Tactical voting in the Euro elections

Practical advice for tactical voting

Can tactical voting work under the Euro elections' PR system? Some commentators have cast theoretical doubt on it, but the evidence shows that it could win lots of seats.

On both sides of the Brexit debate, voters are split between several parties: UKIP/Brexit on the Leave side; and Lib Dem/Green/Change UK/SNP/Plaid Cymru on Remain.

Electoral Calculus recently provided independent forecasting of the Euro election result for pro-Remain group Remain United who want to encourage pro-Remain tactical voting. That analysis suggested the simple tactical voting strategy of voting for the leading pro-Remain party in each electoral region.

Expected England seats won against Tactical Fraction

Some academics and commentators have questioned this advice and suggested that other approaches might be better. We had a look at the evidence, and it seems to support the original advice. Voters, both Leavers and Remainers, are well-advised to concentrate their votes with a single party in the Euro elections and not to split them.

Read our analysis here.

You can also see technical details of the methodology in this PDF document.

Posted 16 May 2019

Political Analysis

Three-D Politics and the Seven Tribes

A major new piece of analysis by Electoral Calculus and pollster ComRes creates a three-dimensional landscape of British politics and identifies the seven political tribes which occupy it.

Electoral Calculus has moved beyond a simplistic one-dimensional view of politics, and even gone further than our own pioneering two-dimensional view, to create a three key dimensions of political attitudes:

Using major polling work by the British Election Study, we can give a political three-D position for each poll respondent identifying their political position on each of the three dimensions.

Groups of like-minded individuals can be spotted to identify seven political tribes of people with similar political attitudes, and gain insight about their demographics and voting behaviour.

The Seven Tribes have also been reported in today's Daily Telegraph. You can see the full details of the Electoral Calculus analysis here on our website.

You can also find out your own 3D political position, and that of your neighbourhood, by taking our short 3D survey.

Posted 20 April 2019

Regression-based prediction

Regression-based ComRes/ElCalc poll shows increased Labour lead

Working with leading pollster ComRes, Electoral Calculus has applied modern regression-based techniques to show an increased Labour lead over the Conservatives.

Regression techniques, also known as MRP, are growing in popularity in the market research industry as a way to make polling more accurate again. Classic polling techniques have had problems with accuracy in recent years as representative sampling becomes harder.

Working jointly with ComRes, we have applied the regression techniques to recent polls. Those polls showed Labour and the Conservatives about equally popular, when they were analysed with conventional polling techniques. But under the new regression techniques, they show a Labour lead of 4pc over the Conservatives.

General Election 2017Current Voting Intention
PartyVote ShareSeatsVote ShareSeatsChange
CON43.5%31832.6%277−41
LAB41.0%26234.7%29028
LIB7.6%128.6%153
UKIP1.9%05.9%00
Green1.7%13.2%0-1
TIG0.0%08.6%00
SNP3.1%353.7%4712
PC0.5%40.7%3-1

An additional feature of regression techniques is that they give a seat-by-seat breakdown which each seat is individually predicted, rather than relying on uniform national swing assumptions.

This regression prediction by ComRes and Electoral Calculus was featured in the Daily Telegraph, "Tory Leavers most in danger of losing seats" on 20 April 2019.

Details of the regression method, and its successful testing with earlier pre-election polls can be found here.

Posted 20 April 2019