General Election Prediction

Current Prediction: Conservative short 35 of majority

Party2017 Votes2017 SeatsPred VotesPred Seats
CON 43.5%318 38.4%291
LAB 41.0%262 38.6%280
LIB 7.6%12 8.5%16
UKIP 1.9%0 5.0%0
Green 1.7%1 3.8%1
SNP 3.1%35 3.3%41
PlaidC 0.5%4 0.5%3
Minor 0.7%0 1.9%0
N.Ire 18 18

Prediction based on opinion polls from 30 Nov 2018 to 20 Dec 2018, sampling 9,375 people.

Probability of possible outcomes

Conservative majority
38%
Labour majority
33%
Lab choice of Lib/Nat
7%
Con/Nat coalition
6%
Con choice of Lib/Nat
5%
Lab/Nat coalition
5%
Nat choice of Con/Lab
3%
No overall control
2%
Lab/Lib coalition
1%
Con/Lib coalition
1%

The future is never certain. But using our advanced modelling techniques, we can estimate the probability of the various possible outcomes at the next general election. ('Nat' means SNP+PlaidC)

Brexit Outcomes

Bettings markets think Brexit delay likely

What are the chances of the various possible Brexit options? One place to look are the online betting markets where punters have to risk their money to back their own opinions.

With the major vote in the House of Commons due tomorrow, Electoral Calculus had a look at what bettors think is likely to happen. We looked first at Betfair Exchange, since it has two-way prices, so we can work out a mid-price probability of each event.

Not surprisingly, punters think the first vote on the Withdrawal Deal is likely to be defeated, with the odds showing a 95pc chance of a government defeat, and only a 5pc chance that the deal will pass first time. However, as some comfort to Theresa May, they think there is a 30pc chance that the deal will pass by the end of March deadline.

Brexit outcome chances from the betting markets

Brexiteers will be disappointed that there is a 78pc chance that Brexit will be delayed beyond the end of March. Remainers might be glad of that, but will be less happy that the chance of a second in/out referendum in 2019 is only 33pc.

Betfair doesn't have a market in "no deal", but both Coral and Ladbrokes price that event at 25pc (offer only).

In terms of having another general election, there is a 41pc chance of a general election in 2019, but that might be after Brexit has happened.

Let's remember that political betting markets are not guaranteed to be right. Indeed they got it pretty wrong at the EU Referendum in 2016. But that's their message today.

Posted 14 January 2019

New Brexit Polling

Public unsure about all Brexit outcomes

A very interesting poll on public attitudes to the Brexit crisis was conducted by ComRes and published by the Daily Express on 4 December. It shows the public against all the main Brexit outcomes – May's deal, No Deal, Remain or another referendum.

Only the option of "renegotiation" with the EU gained more supporters than opponents. And that option may not actually exist, since the EU is in the driving seat and has no motivation to soften its position.

Full poll details from ComRes here, plus tables, and Daily Express news story.

Posted 4 December 2018

News from Electoral Calculus

Polling on Brexit and General Election

Hear Martin Baxter, the founder of Electoral Calculus, on Chris Hope's Brexit podcast for the Daily Telegraph.

Chris and Martin chat about the likely result of any snap general election and what the polls reveal about the public's views on Brexit.

Listen here (starting at 21:35).

Posted 3 December 2018

Polling on Brexit Deal and Theresa May

Public likes May but not her Deal

Polling after the conclusion of EU negotiations shows that the public back May to stay as Prime Minister, but they don't like the proposed deal.

The public think negotiations have gone badly, they think the deal is unacceptable, and more people would rather exit with no deal. Though many others think a No Deal is a worrying prospect.

But they don't want a change of PM or an early general election.

They are still fairly equally split on the original EU membership question, with no clear majority for a second referendum.

See full details on the polling analysis on Public Likes May but not Her Deal.

Posted 22 November 2018

Polling on Brexit outcomes

What the public really wants from Brexit

Many people easily get confused by the apparent kaleidoscope of possible kinds of Brexit. There often appears to be a galaxy of options, and confusion about what each one means. To help the debate, Electoral Calculus has created an easy-to-understand explanation of the main Brexit possibilities, along with analysis from several recent polls about what the public thinks about them.

The key Brexit options lie on a one-dimensional line with a "hard" Brexit at one end and a "soft" Brexit at the other. We call this line the Brexit Spectrum:

Electoral Calculus Brexit Spectrum

Discover what the British public really wants from Brexit and give us your own views about what is the best type of Brexit in our unique online poll.

Posted 31 August 2018