CURRENT PREDICTION

UK General Election Prediction

Our current poll-of-polls predicts what would happen if there were a general election tomorrow.

Full details of our current prediction.
Party2019 Votes2019 SeatsPred VotesPred Seats
CON 44.7%365 26.6%135
LAB 33.0%203 45.3%441
LIB 11.8%11 10.6%30
Reform 2.1%0 7.2%0
Green 2.8%1 5.3%1
SNP 4.0%48 3.4%21
PlaidC 0.5%4 0.8%4

NEW BOUNDARIES

Final UK seat proposals

Electoral Calculus analysis of the finalised new boundaries shows the Conservatives gaining eleven seats and Labour losing six.

Includes individual predictions of every new seat with maps, ward breakdown and demographics.

COMMENTARY

Probability of Parliamentary outcomes October 2023

Commentary October 2023

Prof Richard Rose says that Rishi moves the dial with MPs but not voters.

BY-ELECTIONS

George Galloway, by-election winner. Photo: David Hunt from Warwickshire, Wikimedia Commons

By-elections are not good predictors

Analysis of forty years of by-election results shows that most by-election gains are overturned at the next general election.

COMMENTARY

Probability of Parliamentary outcomes August 2023

Commentary August 2023

Prof Richard Rose says that one by-election win does not a General Election victory make.

COMMENTARY

Probability of Parliamentary outcomes June 2023

Commentary June 2023

Prof Richard Rose says that Labour is going on the offensive to defend its lead.

LOCAL ELECTIONS

Local Elections 2023 Review

Review of our MRP and non-MRP predictions for the local elections to see how they worked out in practice.

COMMENTARY

Probability of Parliamentary outcomes April 2023

Commentary April 2023

Prof Richard Rose says that a narrowing lead still leaves the Tories far behind.

NEW POLL

Labour could win increased majority by turning against Brexit

A new poll for the Constitution Society shows Labour would remain on course to regain all the Red Wall seats and could expand overall support if it said Brexit was a mistake.

NEW WARDS 2023

New Council Wards 2023

New Council Wards 2023

New local council wards are now available for forty-nine councils across England whose ward boundaries have been changed in advance of the local elections in May 2023.

COMMENTARY

Gain in Labour seats if some or all Green voters switch to Labour

Commentary February 2023

Prof Richard Rose says that tactical voting by Green voters in Labour's favour could help Labour win.

POLITICAL ATTITUDES

Three-D Politics 2021

An up-to-date refresh of our unique three-D view of political attitudes shows global issues are now the most important, and analyses the prevalence of socially liberal attitudes across various identity groups.

PREDICTION DETAILS

Best predictor of the 2019 UK General Election

Using advanced mathematical regression techniques, coupled with professional but low-cost polling, Electoral Calculus made the most accurate final pre-election forecast in 2019, outperforming all the competition.

See the General Election 2019 case study.

ELECTION ANALYSIS

Which voters changed their minds in 2019, and how many voted tactically?

Read our in-depth analysis of the voter movements behind the 2019 General Election result, seeing how voters realigned by party, by group, by seat, and how many voted tactically.

FISCAL POLL

Fiscal balance poll Oct 2022

Public Accept Fiscal Discipline

Our new poll with Find Out Now shows the public accept fiscal discipline, and would like to see a mixture of tax rises and spending cuts. But they want the NHS protected.

MRP POLL

MRP Poll Sep 2022

Labour on track for landslide

Our new MRP poll with Find Out Now predicts Labour will win a majority of over 100 seats with eight cabinet ministers predicted to lose their seats.

COMMENTARY

Probability of Parliamentary outcomes October 2022

Commentary October 2022

Prof Richard Rose the Tories are on track for opposition after their leadership election.

INTEREST RATE POLL

Do you think interest rates are about right, too high or too low?

Interest Rate Poll July 2022

Our new poll with Find Out Now asks voters whether they thought interest rates should be higher or lower or about the same. Generally people, and especially Conservative voters, want higher interest rates.

PACT POLL

Predicted Election Outcome with Electoral Pact, May 2022

Electoral Pact Poll May 2022

A poll for the Constitution Society shows that an electoral pact between Labour, the Liberal Democrats and the Greens would result in all three parties winning many more seats than otherwise, and the Conservatives would be heavily defeated.

REFERENDUM POLL

Hypothetical referendum questions

Referendum Poll April 2021

New poll by Electoral Calculus asks the public whether they want to have more referendums and what they would vote for on some hypothetical referendum questions.

POLITICAL SEGMENTATION ANALYSIS

Three-D Politics

Our unique approach to modern politics uses economic, international and social attitudes to segment voters into seven political tribes.

Post Election 2019

Voter Migration 2017-2019

Voter Migration by Party 2017-19

Graphics and analysis of voter migration by party from 2017 to 2019. See how Leave and Remain voters have moved around the political chessboard.

Post Election 2019

Pro-Remain Tactical Voting in 2019

Tactical Voting 2019>

Analysis of tactical voting in 2019, exploring the extent of both pro-Remain and pro-Leave tactical voting. Tactical seats of all types can be identified with our interactive tactical triangle graphic.

POLLING ANALYSIS

Low Cost MRP Regression

Electoral Calculus has pioneered low-cost MRP regression techniques for high-quality and insightful analysis of polling data.

More details

COMMENTARY

Probability of Parliamentary outcomes November 2023

Commentary November 2023

Prof Richard Rose asks what effect could a Tory recovery have?

Tactical Voting POLL

Tactical Voting Poll September 2023

Tactical Voting Poll September 2023

Our new poll with Find Out Now, conducted for the Independent, shows Labour and the Liberal Democrats likely to benefit from anti-Conservative tactical voting at the next election.

COMMENTARY

Probability of Parliamentary outcomes September 2023

Commentary September 2023

Prof Richard Rose says that the Liberals are riding high ahead of the their party conference.

MRP POLL

MRP Poll August 2023

Labour set for landslide in new MRP poll

Our new MRP poll with Find Out Now, conducted for Channel 4 News, shows Labour set for a landslide election victory. The Conservatives would win less than one hundred seats, and the Liberal Democrats are fighting the SNP for third place.

CONSUMER POLL

Driverless DLR Train. Photo: Hippoattack at English Wikipedia, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons

Consumer Poll

A new poll from Find Out Now and Electoral Calculus says that voters think consumers are not well served by politicians. People would like to see more houses built and cheaper professionals, but demand for driverless trains has not yet left the station.

CARS POLL

Public Support and Opposition to traffic-reduction measures

Property Chronicle Poll

Our poll on traffic reduction measures shows that most people are opposed to LTNs, congestion charging and emission zones.

COMMENTARY

Probability of Parliamentary outcomes July 2023

Commentary July 2023

Prof Richard Rose says that Labour is still in the 400 Club.

NEW POLL

Public back a reformed monarchy

A new poll for the Constitution Society shows public support for the monarchy, but the public are also keen on reforms, including more financial transparency and less money for minor royals.

COMMENTARY

Probability of Parliamentary outcomes May 2023

Commentary May 2023

Prof Richard Rose says that the Conservative position is not too disastrous.

VI POLL

VI Poll March 2023

VI Poll March 2023

VI Poll for the Sunday Telegraph with Find Out Now shows Labour's lead over the Conservatives is 23pc.

COMMENTARY

Probability of Parliamentary outcomes March 2023

Commentary March 2023

Prof Richard Rose argues that winning an agreement with Brussels doesn't win seats in Britain.

NEW MRP POLL

Additive and multiplicative changes to CON vote share by seat type

New large MRP poll signals Conservative wipe-out

Our new large MRP poll with Find Out Now for the Daily Telegraph predicts Labour will win a massive majority, and the Conservatives would not even be the second-largest party.

The Conservatives are losing more support in their strongest seats, which bodes badly for them.

LIVE UPDATES

Recent national opinion polls

Current state of party support nationally as measured by the opinion pollsters. Data are shown in both graphical and tabular form for national polls taken over the last month or so.

POLITICAL MAPS

Norwich South: localities by EU Ref

Data Map

Our uniquely detailed Data Map of Britain shows twelve political and social measures including past votes and political attitudes.

All available at various geographic levels of detail including parliamentary seats, district wards, and individual neighbourhood localities.

HISTORICAL DATA

A unique electoral data archive from 1955

Data includes historical data flat files of UK elections from 1955 to date plus our track record of predictions and much more.

VOTER MIGRATION

Voter Migration 2019-22

Voter Migration 2019-22

At the end of a tumultuous year in politics, see graphically how voters have switched their support between the parties and discover those who can't be bothered to vote any more.

COMMENTARY

Probability of Parliamentary outcomes January 2023

Commentary January 2023

Prof Richard Rose says that the Conservatives are threatened by a two-front war for votes.

SCOTTISH POLL

Bar chart on Scottish Independence poll

Scottish Independence Poll December 2022

A poll by Find Out Now and Electoral Calculus for Fetter Together shows support for Scottish independence. allowing for likelihood to vote.

COMMENTARY

Probability of Parliamentary outcomes December 2022

Commentary December 2022

Prof Richard Rose says that Sunak is gaining poll support but losing MPs.

COMMENTARY

Probability of Parliamentary outcomes November 2022

Commentary November 2022

Prof Richard Rose thinks that Sunak gives Tories a bounce – but it's not very high.

DEMOGRAPHICS

Personal income by output area in Holborn and St Pancras

Incomes data in maps and seats

Our latest addition to our website is data on individual and household incomes. This can be seen on both the data map (select 'Income' as data to show) and on the details page for each individual seat.

PROPERTY POLL

Popular attitudes to local property development by ward

Property Chronicle Poll July 2021

A regression poll with Find Out Now for the Property Chronicle asked people whether they would support or oppose more house building in their own neighbourhood. Answers varied greatly depending on location.

Post Election 2019

Swings from 2017 to 2019 by Seat

Voter Migration by Seat 2017-19

Using a political triangle, this graphic shows how every seat moved between 2017 and 2019 elections. Changed seats can be shown separately and every seat can be identified.

Post Election 2019

Swings from 2017 to 2019 by Tribe

Voter Migration by Group 2017-19

See how voters moved around based on which political and demographic groups they belong to. Includes the Electoral Calculus seven political tribes, age and attitudes to the EU.

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