CURRENT PREDICTION
UK General Election Prediction
Our current poll-of-polls predicts what would happen if there were a general election tomorrow.
Full details of our current prediction.| Party | 2019 Votes | 2019 Seats | Pred Votes | Pred Seats |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CON | 44.7% | 365 | 43.5% | 355 |
| LAB | 33.0% | 203 | 33.8% | 211 |
| LIB | 11.8% | 11 | 7.7% | 6 |
| Reform | 2.1% | 0 | 1.7% | 0 |
| Green | 2.8% | 1 | 5.4% | 1 |
| SNP | 4.0% | 48 | 4.2% | 55 |
| PlaidC | 0.5% | 4 | 0.5% | 4 |
| Party | Current Seats | New Seats | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| CON | 345 | 357 | +12 |
| LAB | 180 | 178 | −2 |
| LIB | 7 | 7 | 0 |
| Green | 1 | 1 | 0 |
New seat proposals for England
Electoral Calculus analysis of the proposed new seats for England shows the Conservatives gaining twelve seats and Labour losing two.
Regression Poll May 2021
New large-scale regression poll by Electoral Calculus and Find Out Now for the Sunday Telegraph on Westminster voting intention. Labour support has slumped after the local elections.
Standards in Public Life
MPs' Standards Poll April 2021
New poll by Electoral Calculus and Find Out Now on MPs standards, pay, cronyism and lobbying.
REFERENDUM POLL
Referendum Poll April 2021
New poll by Electoral Calculus asks the public whether they want to have more referendums and what they would vote for on some hypothetical referendum questions.
POLITICAL ATTITUDES
Three-D Politics 2021
An up-to-date refresh of our unique three-D view of political attitudes shows global issues are now the most important, and analyses the prevalence of socially liberal attitudes across various identity groups.
NEW BOUNDARIES 2023
New Seat Boundaries – Likely Impact
As the Boundary Commissions are about to begin their work on redrawing the Westminster seats, Electoral Calculus has drawn its own (unofficial) example set of seat boundaries to see what might happen.
PREDICTION DETAILS
Best predictor of the 2019 UK General Election
Using advanced mathematical regression techniques, coupled with professional but low-cost polling, Electoral Calculus made the most accurate final pre-election forecast in 2019, outperforming all the competition.
See the General Election 2019 case study.
ELECTION ANALYSIS
Which voters changed their minds in 2019, and how many voted tactically?
Read our in-depth analysis of the voter movements behind the 2019 General Election result, seeing how voters realigned by party, by group, by seat, and how many voted tactically.
POLLING ANALYSIS
Low Cost MRP Regression
Electoral Calculus has pioneered low-cost MRP regression techniques for high-quality and insightful analysis of polling data.
More detailsLocal Elections
Local Elections 2019
Electoral Calculus and Find Out Now correctly predicted a key mayoralty race and most of the English district and unitary councils using modern polling methods.
WEST MIDLANDS MAYOR
West Midlands Mayor Poll April 2021
New poll by Electoral Calculus and Find Out Now on the election for West Midlands Mayor on 6 May.
SCOTTISH POLL
Scottish Poll March 2021
New poll by Electoral Calculus and Find Out Now shows the SNP doing well for the Scottish parliamentary elections, and explains why the new Alba party might not be good for unionists.
LOCAL ELECTIONS 2021
New Wards for 2021
Wards are now updated to include local boundary changes for 2021. New wards now available for Cornwall, Isle of Wight, Wiltshire, North Northamptonshire and West Northamptonshire.
LIVE UPDATES
Recent national opinion polls
Current state of party support nationally as measured by the opinion pollsters. Data are shown in both graphical and tabular form for national polls taken over the last month or so.
POLITICAL MAPS
Data Map
Our uniquely detailed Data Map of Britain shows twelve political and social measures including past votes and political attitudes.
All available at various geographic levels of detail including parliamentary seats, district wards, and individual neighbourhood localities.
HISTORICAL DATA
A unique electoral data archive from 1955
Data includes historical data flat files of UK elections from 1955 to date plus our track record of predictions and much more.
