General Election Prediction
Current Prediction: Conservative short 26 of majority
| Party | 2017 Votes | 2017 Seats | Pred Votes | Pred Seats |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CON | 43.5% | 318 | 39.8% | 300 |
| LAB | 41.0% | 262 | 38.9% | 267 |
| LIB | 7.6% | 12 | 9.6% | 17 |
| UKIP | 1.9% | 0 | 3.4% | 0 |
| Green | 1.7% | 1 | 2.6% | 1 |
| SNP | 3.1% | 35 | 3.4% | 44 |
| PlaidC | 0.5% | 4 | 0.5% | 3 |
| Minor | 0.7% | 0 | 1.8% | 0 |
| N.Ire | 18 | 18 |
Prediction based on opinion polls from 21 Sep 2018 to 05 Oct 2018, sampling 9,159 people.
Probability of possible outcomes
| Conservative majority |
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| Labour majority |
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| Lab choice of Lib/Nat |
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| Con/Nat coalition |
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| Con choice of Lib/Nat |
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| Lab/Nat coalition |
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| Nat choice of Con/Lab |
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| No overall control |
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| Lab/Lib coalition |
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The future is never certain. But using our advanced modelling techniques, we can estimate the probability of the various possible outcomes at the next general election. ('Nat' means SNP+PlaidC)
Polling on Brexit outcomes
What the public really wants from Brexit
Many people easily get confused by the apparent kaleidoscope of possible kinds of Brexit. There often appears to be a galaxy of options, and confusion about what each one means. To help the debate, Electoral Calculus has created an easy-to-understand explanation of the main Brexit possibilities, along with analysis from several recent polls about what the public thinks about them.
The key Brexit options lie on a one-dimensional line with a "hard" Brexit at one end and a "soft" Brexit at the other. We call this line the Brexit Spectrum:
Discover what the British public really wants from Brexit and give us your own views about what is the best type of Brexit in our unique online poll.
Posted 31 August 2018