General Election Prediction
Current Prediction: Conservative short 40 of majority
| Party | 2017 Votes | 2017 Seats | Pred Votes | Pred Seats |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CON | 43.5% | 318 | 39.0% | 286 |
| LAB | 41.0% | 262 | 39.6% | 284 |
| LIB | 7.6% | 12 | 8.2% | 16 |
| UKIP | 1.9% | 0 | 3.6% | 0 |
| Green | 1.7% | 1 | 2.3% | 1 |
| SNP | 3.1% | 35 | 3.3% | 42 |
| PlaidC | 0.5% | 4 | 0.5% | 3 |
| Minor | 0.7% | 0 | 3.5% | 0 |
| N.Ire | 18 | 18 |
Prediction based on opinion polls from 20 Oct 2018 to 27 Nov 2018, sampling 26,990 people.
Probability of possible outcomes
| Conservative majority |
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| Labour majority |
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| Lab choice of Lib/Nat |
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| Con/Nat coalition |
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| Con choice of Lib/Nat |
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| Lab/Nat coalition |
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| Nat choice of Con/Lab |
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| No overall control |
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| Lab/Lib coalition |
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The future is never certain. But using our advanced modelling techniques, we can estimate the probability of the various possible outcomes at the next general election. ('Nat' means SNP+PlaidC)
Brexit Options
How to renegotiate the deal
The public, as well as many MPs, would like a renegotiation of the EU withdrawal agreement. But the EU has no interest in changing the proposed deal.
It would take a bold and risky move by Britain to change the terms of debate and force the EU to reconsider. Here is how it could work.
Posted 5 December 2018
New Brexit Polling
Public unsure about all Brexit outcomes
A very interesting poll on public attitudes to the Brexit crisis was conducted by ComRes and published by the Daily Express on 4 December. It shows the public against all the main Brexit outcomes – May's deal, No Deal, Remain or another referendum.
Only the option of "renegotiation" with the EU gained more supporters than opponents. And that option may not actually exist, since the EU is in the driving seat and has no motivation to soften its position.
Full poll details from ComRes here, plus tables, and Daily Express news story.
Posted 4 December 2018
News from Electoral Calculus
Polling on Brexit and General Election
Hear Martin Baxter, the founder of Electoral Calculus, on Chris Hope's Brexit podcast for the Daily Telegraph.
Chris and Martin chat about the likely result of any snap general election and what the polls reveal about the public's views on Brexit.
Listen here (starting at 21:35).
Posted 3 December 2018
Polling on Brexit Deal and Theresa May
Public likes May but not her Deal
Polling after the conclusion of EU negotiations shows that the public back May to stay as Prime Minister, but they don't like the proposed deal.
The public think negotiations have gone badly, they think the deal is unacceptable, and more people would rather exit with no deal. Though many others think a No Deal is a worrying prospect.
But they don't want a change of PM or an early general election.
They are still fairly equally split on the original EU membership question, with no clear majority for a second referendum.
See full details on the polling analysis on Public Likes May but not Her Deal.
Posted 22 November 2018
Polling on Brexit outcomes
What the public really wants from Brexit
Many people easily get confused by the apparent kaleidoscope of possible kinds of Brexit. There often appears to be a galaxy of options, and confusion about what each one means. To help the debate, Electoral Calculus has created an easy-to-understand explanation of the main Brexit possibilities, along with analysis from several recent polls about what the public thinks about them.
The key Brexit options lie on a one-dimensional line with a "hard" Brexit at one end and a "soft" Brexit at the other. We call this line the Brexit Spectrum:
Discover what the British public really wants from Brexit and give us your own views about what is the best type of Brexit in our unique online poll.
Posted 31 August 2018