CURRENT PREDICTION

UK General Election Prediction

Our current poll-of-polls predicts what would happen if there were a general election tomorrow.

Full details of our current prediction.
Party2019 Votes2019 SeatsPred VotesPred Seats
CON 44.7%365 41.5%337
LAB 33.0%203 36.6%227
LIB 11.8%11 7.1%7
Reform 2.1%0 2.2%0
Green 2.8%1 5.0%1
SNP 4.0%48 4.2%56
PlaidC 0.5%4 0.5%4

OUR WEBSITE




New look for Electoral Calculus website

To mark the new year, we have a brand-new design for the Electoral Calculus website, making the site easier to navigate and use.

All the existing features are available, along with new pages on our services, all with a more modern design.

Read more

NEW BOUNDARIES 2023

New Seat Boundaries – Likely Impact

As the Boundary Commissions are about to begin their work on redrawing the Westminster seats, Electoral Calculus has drawn its own (unofficial) example set of seat boundaries to see what might happen.

PREDICTION DETAILS

Best predictor of the 2019 UK General Election

Using advanced mathematical regression techniques, coupled with professional but low-cost polling, Electoral Calculus made the most accurate final pre-election forecast in 2019, outperforming all the competition.

See the General Election 2019 case study.

ELECTION ANALYSIS

Which voters changed their minds in 2019, and how many voted tactically?

Read our in-depth analysis of the voter movements behind the 2019 General Election result, seeing how voters realigned by party, by group, by seat, and how many voted tactically.

POLITICAL SEGMENTATION ANALYSIS

Three-D Politics

Our unique approach to modern politics uses economic, international and social attitudes to segment voters into seven political tribes.

Post Election 2019

Voter Migration 2017-2019

Voter Migration by Party 2017-19

Graphics and analysis of voter migration by party from 2017 to 2019. See how Leave and Remain voters have moved around the political chessboard.

Post Election 2019

Pro-Remain Tactical Voting in 2019

Tactical Voting 2019>

Analysis of tactical voting in 2019, exploring the extent of both pro-Remain and pro-Leave tactical voting. Tactical seats of all types can be identified with our interactive tactical triangle graphic.

POLLING ANALYSIS

Low Cost MRP Regression

Electoral Calculus has pioneered low-cost MRP regression techniques for high-quality and insightful analysis of polling data.

More details

LIVE UPDATES

Recent national opinion polls

Current state of party support nationally as measured by the opinion pollsters. Data are shown in both graphical and tabular form for national polls taken over the last month or so.

POLITICAL MAPS

Norwich South: localities by EU Ref

Data Map

Our uniquely detailed Data Map of Britain shows twelve political and social measures including past votes and political attitudes.

All available at various geographic levels of detail including parliamentary seats, district wards, and individual neighbourhood localities.

HISTORICAL DATA

A unique electoral data archive from 1955

Data includes historical data flat files of UK elections from 1955 to date plus our track record of predictions and much more.

Post Election 2019

Swings from 2017 to 2019 by Seat

Voter Migration by Seat 2017-19

Using a political triangle, this graphic shows how every seat moved between 2017 and 2019 elections. Changed seats can be shown separately and every seat can be identified.

Post Election 2019

Swings from 2017 to 2019 by Tribe

Voter Migration by Group 2017-19

See how voters moved around based on which political and demographic groups they belong to. Includes the Electoral Calculus seven political tribes, age and attitudes to the EU.

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