CURRENT PREDICTION
UK General Election Prediction
Our current poll-of-polls predicts what would happen if there were a general election tomorrow.
Full details of our current prediction.| Party | 2024 Votes | 2024 Seats | Pred Votes | Pred Seats |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CON | 24.4% | 121 | 24.8% | 157 |
| LAB | 34.7% | 412 | 30.6% | 366 |
| LIB | 12.6% | 72 | 12.7% | 72 |
| Reform | 14.7% | 5 | 18.3% | 9 |
| Green | 6.9% | 4 | 7.7% | 4 |
| SNP | 2.6% | 9 | 2.7% | 10 |
| PlaidC | 0.7% | 4 | 0.7% | 4 |
COMMENTARY
Commentary October 2024
Prof Richard Rose looks at why the new Tory leader will be pulled in two directions.
ELECTION 2024
Election Trends and Insights
We look at the election results, trends and insights to see how secure Labour's victory is, what impact Reform really had, and whether politics and religion are now intertwined.
ELECTION 2024
General Election 2024
A summary of the results, and a first look at our predictions to see how they did.
COMMENTARY
Commentary 26 June 2024
Prof Richard Rose says that former Tory voters are not returning home.
COMMENTARY
Commentary 21 June 2024
Prof Richard Rose says that Random Poll Fluctuations Add Interest.
CANDIDATES
Candidate Lists
Our predictions have now been adjusted to reflect which parties are standing in which seats.
Our thanks to Democracy Club for supplying the candidate data.
COMMENTARY
Commentary 7 June 2024
Prof Richard Rose looks at what people do when they are not voting.
POLLING
A Voter's Guide to MRP
Our helpful introduction to MRP polling, how it works, and whether Labour will really win nearly 500 seats.
GENERAL ELECTION 2024
Tactical Voting
An in-depth look at tactical voting from our new MRP poll shows that it might cost Labour more seats than the Conservatives.
PSEPHOLOGY
Voter Migration since 2019
See graphically how voters are moving between the parties, or not voting at all.
LIB DEM PROSPECTS
Liberal Democrat Fortunes at the Next General Election
Analysis of recent polling suggests the Lib Dems will do well in their stronghold seats, but Labour has overtaken them in many seats where they came second at the last election.
COMMENTARY
Commentary January 2024
Prof Richard Rose says that winning core Tory seats is not enough for Rishi Sunak.
BY-ELECTIONS
By-elections are not good predictors
Analysis of forty years of by-election results shows that most by-election gains are overturned at the next general election.
MRP POLL
Labour set for landslide in new MRP poll
Our new MRP poll with Find Out Now, conducted for Channel 4 News, shows Labour set for a landslide election victory. The Conservatives would win less than one hundred seats, and the Liberal Democrats are fighting the SNP for third place.
HETERODOXY POLL
Property Chronicle Heterodoxy Poll
Poll on heterodoxical statements for the Property Chronicle in March 2023.
The public want euthanasia legalised and house prices lowered, and don't think net zero will happen by 2050.
NEW WARDS 2023
New Council Wards 2023
New local council wards are now available for forty-nine councils across England whose ward boundaries have been changed in advance of the local elections in May 2023.
PREDICTION DETAILS
Best predictor of the 2019 UK General Election
Using advanced mathematical regression techniques, coupled with professional but low-cost polling, Electoral Calculus made the most accurate final pre-election forecast in 2019, outperforming all the competition.
See the General Election 2019 case study.
POLLING ANALYSIS
Low Cost MRP Regression
Electoral Calculus has pioneered low-cost MRP regression techniques for high-quality and insightful analysis of polling data.
More detailsCOMMENTARY
Commentary September 2024
Prof Richard Rose looks at why Labour's power rests on divided opposition.
COMMENTARY
Commentary 12 July 2024
Prof Richard Rose says that the electoral system delivered one hit and one miss last week.
COMMENTARY
Commentary 4 July 2024
Prof Richard Rose says that the opposition of events begins on Monday.
GENERAL ELECTION 2024
New MRP Poll
Our new MRP poll for the Daily Mirror and GB News, in conjunction with Find Out Now, shows the Conservatives in third place with Reform and the Lib Dems gaining seats.
PSEPHOLOGY
Expected Seats
As well as the obvious way of counting predicted seats, there is another way called expected seats. Read here about how it works, whether it's a good idea, and what's it got to do with football.
COMMENTARY
Commentary 14 June 2024
Prof Richard Rose says that British voters don't need an EU election to cast a protest vote.
POLLING
Conservative Defectors in their own words
Our new poll, with Find Out Now, asks people who voted Conservative in 2019, but will not vote Conservative this time, to give their reasons in their own words.
GENERAL ELECTION 2024
New MRP Poll
Our new MRP poll for the Daily Mail, in conjunction with Find Out Now, shows the Conservatives on course for a historic defeat.
GENERAL ELECTION 2024
General Election Outlook
Our outlook for the general election both in terms of politics, and our predictions and services to help you navigate the election campaign.
COMMENTARY
Commentary May 2024
Prof Richard Rose looks at the upcoming local elections and what real votes will tell us.
COMMENTARY
Commentary April 2024
Prof Richard Rose says that Reform can cost the Tories more than 100 seats.
COMMENTARY
Commentary March 2024
Prof Richard Rose looks at the Race for Third Place in the Commons.
MRP POLL
MRP Poll February 2024
New MRP poll for the Daily Mirror shows Labour is likely to get a landslide election victory.
MODELLING
Modelling smaller parties
New modelling by Electoral Calculus shows how to find those places where the smaller parties are likely to do well.
COMMENTARY
Commentary December 2023
Prof Richard Rose asks how much can the Tories gain by Reforming their appeal.
Tactical Voting POLL
Tactical Voting Poll September 2023
Our new poll with Find Out Now, conducted for the Independent, shows Labour and the Liberal Democrats likely to benefit from anti-Conservative tactical voting at the next election.
CARS POLL
Property Chronicle Poll
Our poll on traffic reduction measures shows that most people are opposed to LTNs, congestion charging and emission zones.
LIVE UPDATES
Recent national opinion polls
Current state of party support nationally as measured by the opinion pollsters. Data are shown in both graphical and tabular form for national polls taken over the last month or so.
POLITICAL MAPS
Data Map
Our uniquely detailed Data Map of Britain shows twelve political and social measures including past votes and political attitudes.
All available at various geographic levels of detail including parliamentary seats, district wards, and individual neighbourhood localities.
HISTORICAL DATA
A unique electoral data archive from 1955
Data includes historical data flat files of UK elections from 1955 to date plus our track record of predictions and much more.