CURRENT PREDICTION

UK General Election Prediction

Our current poll-of-polls predicts what would happen if there were a general election tomorrow.

Full details of our current prediction.
Party2019 Votes2019 SeatsPred VotesPred Seats
CON 44.7%365 38.7%317
LAB 33.0%203 35.0%248
LIB 11.8%11 8.4%7
Reform 2.1%0 2.5%0
Green 2.8%1 7.2%1
SNP 4.0%48 4.3%55
PlaidC 0.5%4 0.5%4

NEW BOUNDARIES

New UK seat proposals

Electoral Calculus analysis of the proposed new seats for the whole country shows the Conservatives gaining thirteen seats and Labour losing eight.

Now includes individual predictions of every new seat with maps, ward breakdown and demographics.

POLL

Voting Intention Change from GE 2019 to Sep 2021

Regression Poll Sep 2021

New large-scale regression poll by Electoral Calculus and Find Out Now for the Daily Telegraph on Westminster voting intention. Conservative support has shrunk after the NI and tax rises.

REFERENDUM POLL

Hypothetical referendum questions

Referendum Poll April 2021

New poll by Electoral Calculus asks the public whether they want to have more referendums and what they would vote for on some hypothetical referendum questions.

POLITICAL ATTITUDES

Three-D Politics 2021

An up-to-date refresh of our unique three-D view of political attitudes shows global issues are now the most important, and analyses the prevalence of socially liberal attitudes across various identity groups.

NEW BOUNDARIES 2023

New Seat Boundaries – Likely Impact

As the Boundary Commissions are about to begin their work on redrawing the Westminster seats, Electoral Calculus has drawn its own (unofficial) example set of seat boundaries to see what might happen.

PREDICTION DETAILS

Best predictor of the 2019 UK General Election

Using advanced mathematical regression techniques, coupled with professional but low-cost polling, Electoral Calculus made the most accurate final pre-election forecast in 2019, outperforming all the competition.

See the General Election 2019 case study.

Local Elections

Actual District Council Results May 2021

Local Elections 2021

Electoral Calculus and Find Out Now correctly predicted a key mayoralty race and most of the English district and unitary councils using modern polling methods.

ELECTION ANALYSIS

Which voters changed their minds in 2019, and how many voted tactically?

Read our in-depth analysis of the voter movements behind the 2019 General Election result, seeing how voters realigned by party, by group, by seat, and how many voted tactically.

POLITICAL SEGMENTATION ANALYSIS

Three-D Politics

Our unique approach to modern politics uses economic, international and social attitudes to segment voters into seven political tribes.

Post Election 2019

Voter Migration 2017-2019

Voter Migration by Party 2017-19

Graphics and analysis of voter migration by party from 2017 to 2019. See how Leave and Remain voters have moved around the political chessboard.

Post Election 2019

Pro-Remain Tactical Voting in 2019

Tactical Voting 2019>

Analysis of tactical voting in 2019, exploring the extent of both pro-Remain and pro-Leave tactical voting. Tactical seats of all types can be identified with our interactive tactical triangle graphic.

POLLING ANALYSIS

Low Cost MRP Regression

Electoral Calculus has pioneered low-cost MRP regression techniques for high-quality and insightful analysis of polling data.

More details

POLL

Voting Intention Change from GE 2019 to Nov 2021

Regression Poll Nov 2021

Latest large-scale regression poll by Electoral Calculus and Find Out Now for the Daily Telegraph on Westminster voting intention. The issue of MPs' standards was depressing Conservative vote share.

PROPERTY POLL

Single most important way to improved local homes

Property Chronicle Poll October 2021

A poll with Find Out Now for the Property Chronicle asked people what were the big issues in the housing market. Affordability came top by a long way.

PROPERTY POLL

Popular attitudes to local property development by ward

Property Chronicle Poll July 2021

A regression poll with Find Out Now for the Property Chronicle asked people whether they would support or oppose more house building in their own neighbourhood. Answers varied greatly depending on location.

ELECTORAL PACT POLL

Predicted seat changes with Electoral Pact

ConSoc Electoral Pact Poll June 2021

A regression poll for the Constitution Society asked the public if they would vote for an electoral pact between Labour, the Liberal Democrats and the Green party. They said they would and many seats could change hands.

LOCAL ELECTIONS 2021

New Wards for 2021

Wards are now updated to include local boundary changes for 2021. New wards now available for Cornwall, Isle of Wight, Wiltshire, North Northamptonshire and West Northamptonshire.

LIVE UPDATES

Recent national opinion polls

Current state of party support nationally as measured by the opinion pollsters. Data are shown in both graphical and tabular form for national polls taken over the last month or so.

POLITICAL MAPS

Norwich South: localities by EU Ref

Data Map

Our uniquely detailed Data Map of Britain shows twelve political and social measures including past votes and political attitudes.

All available at various geographic levels of detail including parliamentary seats, district wards, and individual neighbourhood localities.

HISTORICAL DATA

A unique electoral data archive from 1955

Data includes historical data flat files of UK elections from 1955 to date plus our track record of predictions and much more.

Post Election 2019

Swings from 2017 to 2019 by Seat

Voter Migration by Seat 2017-19

Using a political triangle, this graphic shows how every seat moved between 2017 and 2019 elections. Changed seats can be shown separately and every seat can be identified.

Post Election 2019

Swings from 2017 to 2019 by Tribe

Voter Migration by Group 2017-19

See how voters moved around based on which political and demographic groups they belong to. Includes the Electoral Calculus seven political tribes, age and attitudes to the EU.

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