General Election Prediction

Current Prediction: Conservative majority 58

Party2017 Votes2017 SeatsPred VotesPred Seats
CON 43.5%318 34.5%354
LAB 41.0%262 25.7%195
LIB 7.6%12 17.5%31
Brexit 0.0%0 11.7%0
Green 1.7%1 4.5%1
SNP 3.1%35 3.2%48
PlaidC 0.5%4 0.7%3
UKIP 1.9%0 0.4%0
Other 0.7%0 2.0%0
DUP 10 9
SF 7 7
Alliance 0 1
NI Other 1 1

Prediction based on opinion polls from 01 Oct 2019 to 15 Oct 2019, sampling 9,176 people.

Probability of possible outcomes

Conservative majority
50%
Labour majority
13%
Con choice of Lib/Nat
6%
Lab choice of Lib/Nat
5%
Lib choice of Con/Lab
5%
Con/Brexit coalition
4%
Lab/Lib coalition
3%
No overall control
3%
Con/Lib coalition
3%
Con/Nat coalition
2%
LibDem majority
1%
Lab/Nat coalition
1%
Brexit/Con coalition
1%
Nat choice of Con/Lab
1%

The future is never certain. But using our advanced modelling techniques, we can estimate the probability of the various possible outcomes at the next general election. ('Nat' means SNP+PlaidC)

September poll update

Pollsters disagree between hung parliament or big Conservative majority

Our regular month-end poll of polls shows an average Conservative lead of seven per cent over Labour. This is just enough for a small majority in the House of Commons, which is the headline prediction above.

But that average disguises wide variation between pollsters. The chart below plots the most recent poll in September from each of ten pollsters, using the horizontal axis for their estimated Conservative support, and the vertical axis for Labour. The range of Conservative support runs from a low of 27pc (ComRes and Survation) to a high of 38pc (Kantar). Labour supports runs from 22pc (YouGov) to 28pc (Deltapoll and Panelbase).

Pollster variation September 2019

The crucial number is the lead of the Conservatives over Labour (or vice versa if Labour is ahead). That ranges from 0pc (ComRes) to 14pc (Kantar). If this lead is around 6pc, then the Conservatives should get a bare majority in parliament, which is marked by the light blue diagonal line. But if this lead is at least 9pc, then they will get a more comfortable majority, marked by the dark blue line. On the other side, Labour need a lead of about 6pc for a bare majority themselves, shown by the light red line.

The current average prediction is shown by the red dot, marked "Average" which is within the bare Conservative majority region. Fascinatingly, only one pollster (Hanbury) thinks the parties are actually in this zone. Five of the other pollsters are predicting another hung parliament, while four indicate a large Conservative majority.

This increases the uncertainty about the possible election outcome. It could be another a hung parliament, or it could give a comfortable Conservative majority.

Posted 30 September 2019

General Election

Who would win a General Election?

As an election appears possible, Electoral Calculus looks at the question of who would be likely to win it, according to the opinion polls and our models.

Divided pollsters election predictions 2019

Our analysis looks at out current headline prediction, and at the relatively sophisticated statistical modelling behind it. A special section looks at how seats are likely to change at a regional level, showing the pressures that the two major parties are under. It also highlights the ongoing division of opinion between the pollsters and how that could make a big difference to the outcome.

Read the full story only on Electoral Calculus.

Posted 5 September 2019

Brexit analysis

Boris Johnson wants to skewer Labour on a dilemma to get a Deal approved

Most commentators have missed the point of the five-week suspension of parliament. It is not done in order to achieve No Deal, but rather to achieve an agreed Deal and to force Labour to vote for it.

The true aim is to close off avenues for further delay to Brexit. The government hopes to bring back a revised Withdrawal Agreement and present it to parliament in the second half of October. Although some Conservative Brexiteers will vote against it, the Labour party will be forced to choose between the Deal or No Deal. This will not be the cosy Noel Edmonds' version of the question, but a deadly dilemma to Labour where both options are unattractive.

Jeremy Corbyn and Boris Johnson
Jeremy Corbyn and Boris JohnsonPhotos: Sophie Brown (CC BY-SA 4.0); Prime Minister (Open Government Licence v3.0)

The strategy is not without risks. If the EU refuse to change anything, then the Conservatives will be set on a course to exit without a deal. And if the backstop changes are only cosmetic, then the schism between the Conservative and Brexit parties could become entrenched. But there is a chance of pulling off a spectacular political coup de théâtre rather than a coup d'état.

Read the full analysis here.

Posted 29 August 2019

Election predictions

Conservatives close to, but still short of, a majority

Brexit Outcome implied probabilities 7-Aug-2019

See the facts and figures behind Martin Baxter's election prediction at this week's Chopper's Brexit Podcast.

Topics covered include the overall election prediction, and three useful rules of thumb for understanding polls.

The big division between pollsters continues with some seeing a Labour coalition and others a large majority for Boris Johnson.

And the regular check on the chance of the various Brexit outcomes.

See all the facts and figures here.


Posted 8 August 2019

Political Analysis

Three-D Politics and the Seven Tribes

A major new piece of analysis by Electoral Calculus and pollster ComRes creates a three-dimensional landscape of British politics and identifies the seven political tribes which occupy it.

Electoral Calculus has moved beyond a simplistic one-dimensional view of politics, and even gone further than our own pioneering two-dimensional view, to create a three key dimensions of political attitudes:

Using major polling work by the British Election Study, we can give a political three-D position for each poll respondent identifying their political position on each of the three dimensions.

Groups of like-minded individuals can be spotted to identify seven political tribes of people with similar political attitudes, and gain insight about their demographics and voting behaviour.

The Seven Tribes have also been reported in today's Daily Telegraph. You can see the full details of the Electoral Calculus analysis here on our website.

You can also find out your own 3D political position, and that of your neighbourhood, by taking our short 3D survey.

Posted 20 April 2019