CURRENT PREDICTION
UK General Election Prediction
Our current poll-of-polls predicts what would happen if there were a general election tomorrow.
Full details of our current prediction.| Party | 2019 Votes | 2019 Seats | Pred Votes | Pred Seats |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CON | 44.7% | 365 | 32.3% | 247 |
| LAB | 33.0% | 203 | 38.4% | 308 |
| LIB | 11.8% | 11 | 11.4% | 11 |
| Reform | 2.1% | 0 | 3.1% | 0 |
| Green | 2.8% | 1 | 6.2% | 1 |
| SNP | 4.0% | 48 | 4.2% | 59 |
| PlaidC | 0.5% | 4 | 1.1% | 5 |
NEW BOUNDARIES
New UK seat proposals
Electoral Calculus analysis of the proposed new seats for the whole country shows the Conservatives gaining thirteen seats and Labour losing eight.
Now includes individual predictions of every new seat with maps, ward breakdown and demographics.
POLL
'Partygate' Poll
A new poll shows Labour well ahead of the Conservatives and a clear majority of the public think Boris Johnson should resign.
BY-ELECTION
Shropshire North by-election Dec 2021
Commentary on the by-election in Shropshire North, plus new polling on voting intention and asking the public if the government is incompetent, selfish and out of touch.
POLL
Regression Poll Dec 2021
Latest large-scale regression poll by Electoral Calculus and Find Out Now for the Daily Telegraph on Westminster voting intention. Conservatives and Labour now fairly equal in the polls.
BY-ELECTION
Old Bexley by-election Dec 2021
Commentary on the by-election in Old Bexley and Sidcup. The centre-right overall did better than the Conservatives.
Regression Poll Sep 2021
New large-scale regression poll by Electoral Calculus and Find Out Now for the Daily Telegraph on Westminster voting intention. Conservative support has shrunk after the NI and tax rises.
REFERENDUM POLL
Referendum Poll April 2021
New poll by Electoral Calculus asks the public whether they want to have more referendums and what they would vote for on some hypothetical referendum questions.
POLITICAL ATTITUDES
Three-D Politics 2021
An up-to-date refresh of our unique three-D view of political attitudes shows global issues are now the most important, and analyses the prevalence of socially liberal attitudes across various identity groups.
NEW BOUNDARIES 2023
New Seat Boundaries – Likely Impact
As the Boundary Commissions are about to begin their work on redrawing the Westminster seats, Electoral Calculus has drawn its own (unofficial) example set of seat boundaries to see what might happen.
PREDICTION DETAILS
Best predictor of the 2019 UK General Election
Using advanced mathematical regression techniques, coupled with professional but low-cost polling, Electoral Calculus made the most accurate final pre-election forecast in 2019, outperforming all the competition.
See the General Election 2019 case study.
Local Elections
Local Elections 2021
Electoral Calculus and Find Out Now correctly predicted a key mayoralty race and most of the English district and unitary councils using modern polling methods.
ELECTION ANALYSIS
Which voters changed their minds in 2019, and how many voted tactically?
Read our in-depth analysis of the voter movements behind the 2019 General Election result, seeing how voters realigned by party, by group, by seat, and how many voted tactically.
POLLING ANALYSIS
Low Cost MRP Regression
Electoral Calculus has pioneered low-cost MRP regression techniques for high-quality and insightful analysis of polling data.
More detailsCOMMENTARY
Government Formation
Prof Richard Rose looks at the likely and unlikely ways to form a government given the state of public opinion at the start of 2022.
POLL
Regression Poll Nov 2021
Latest large-scale regression poll by Electoral Calculus and Find Out Now for the Daily Telegraph on Westminster voting intention. The issue of MPs' standards was depressing Conservative vote share.
PROPERTY POLL
Property Chronicle Poll October 2021
A poll with Find Out Now for the Property Chronicle asked people what were the big issues in the housing market. Affordability came top by a long way.
PROPERTY POLL
Property Chronicle Poll July 2021
A regression poll with Find Out Now for the Property Chronicle asked people whether they would support or oppose more house building in their own neighbourhood. Answers varied greatly depending on location.
ELECTORAL PACT POLL
ConSoc Electoral Pact Poll June 2021
A regression poll for the Constitution Society asked the public if they would vote for an electoral pact between Labour, the Liberal Democrats and the Green party. They said they would and many seats could change hands.
LOCAL ELECTIONS 2021
New Wards for 2021
Wards are now updated to include local boundary changes for 2021. New wards now available for Cornwall, Isle of Wight, Wiltshire, North Northamptonshire and West Northamptonshire.
LIVE UPDATES
Recent national opinion polls
Current state of party support nationally as measured by the opinion pollsters. Data are shown in both graphical and tabular form for national polls taken over the last month or so.
POLITICAL MAPS
Data Map
Our uniquely detailed Data Map of Britain shows twelve political and social measures including past votes and political attitudes.
All available at various geographic levels of detail including parliamentary seats, district wards, and individual neighbourhood localities.
HISTORICAL DATA
A unique electoral data archive from 1955
Data includes historical data flat files of UK elections from 1955 to date plus our track record of predictions and much more.
