CURRENT PREDICTION

UK General Election Prediction

Our current poll-of-polls predicts what would happen if there were a general election tomorrow.

Full details of our current prediction.
Party2019 Votes2019 SeatsPred VotesPred Seats
CON 44.7%365 33.6%247
LAB 33.0%203 39.6%315
LIB 11.8%11 9.8%13
Reform 2.1%0 2.3%0
Green 2.8%1 6.0%1
SNP 4.0%48 3.8%50
PlaidC 0.5%4 0.9%5

NEW BOUNDARIES

New UK seat proposals

Electoral Calculus analysis of the proposed new seats for the whole country shows the Conservatives gaining thirteen seats and Labour losing eight.

Now includes individual predictions of every new seat with maps, ward breakdown and demographics.

COMMENTARY

Probability of Parliamentary outcomes May 2022

Commentary May 2022

Prof Richard Rose on why foreign photo opportunities don't win British votes.

COMMENTARY

Probability of Parliamentary outcomes Apr 2022

Commentary April 2022

Prof Richard Rose on why foreign policy unites the country, but forming the next government could divide it.

POLL

Public attitudes to no-fly zone

Ukraine Poll March 2022

The public are keen for economic sanctions on Russia, and a majority of those with an opinion are in favour of a NATO no-fly zone in Ukraine.

MRP POLL

Voting Intention Feb 2022

February VI Poll

A new MRP poll with Find Out Now shows Labour ahead of the Conservatives and likely to form a government. A third of Conservative MPs, including Boris Johnson, could lose their seats.

POLL

Voting Intention Jan 2022

'Partygate' Poll

A new poll shows Labour well ahead of the Conservatives and a clear majority of the public think Boris Johnson should resign.

BY-ELECTION

Shropshire North by-election Dec 2021

Commentary on the by-election in Shropshire North, plus new polling on voting intention and asking the public if the government is incompetent, selfish and out of touch.

POLL

Voting Intention Change from GE 2019 to Dec 2021

Regression Poll Dec 2021

Latest large-scale regression poll by Electoral Calculus and Find Out Now for the Daily Telegraph on Westminster voting intention. Conservatives and Labour now fairly equal in the polls.

BY-ELECTION

Predicted seats won with and without Reform UK

Old Bexley by-election Dec 2021

Commentary on the by-election in Old Bexley and Sidcup. The centre-right overall did better than the Conservatives.

REFERENDUM POLL

Hypothetical referendum questions

Referendum Poll April 2021

New poll by Electoral Calculus asks the public whether they want to have more referendums and what they would vote for on some hypothetical referendum questions.

POLITICAL ATTITUDES

Three-D Politics 2021

An up-to-date refresh of our unique three-D view of political attitudes shows global issues are now the most important, and analyses the prevalence of socially liberal attitudes across various identity groups.

PREDICTION DETAILS

Best predictor of the 2019 UK General Election

Using advanced mathematical regression techniques, coupled with professional but low-cost polling, Electoral Calculus made the most accurate final pre-election forecast in 2019, outperforming all the competition.

See the General Election 2019 case study.

ELECTION ANALYSIS

Which voters changed their minds in 2019, and how many voted tactically?

Read our in-depth analysis of the voter movements behind the 2019 General Election result, seeing how voters realigned by party, by group, by seat, and how many voted tactically.

POLITICAL SEGMENTATION ANALYSIS

Three-D Politics

Our unique approach to modern politics uses economic, international and social attitudes to segment voters into seven political tribes.

Post Election 2019

Voter Migration 2017-2019

Voter Migration by Party 2017-19

Graphics and analysis of voter migration by party from 2017 to 2019. See how Leave and Remain voters have moved around the political chessboard.

Post Election 2019

Pro-Remain Tactical Voting in 2019

Tactical Voting 2019>

Analysis of tactical voting in 2019, exploring the extent of both pro-Remain and pro-Leave tactical voting. Tactical seats of all types can be identified with our interactive tactical triangle graphic.

POLLING ANALYSIS

Low Cost MRP Regression

Electoral Calculus has pioneered low-cost MRP regression techniques for high-quality and insightful analysis of polling data.

More details

ELECTION RESULTS

Local Council Election Results 2022

Local Election Results 2022

Our pre-election poll correctly predicted over 80pc of council results including Labour's gains in Westminster, Wandsworth and Barnet, and the four new unitary authorities. See all the details here.

LOCAL POLL

Councils up for election in 2022

Local Election Poll 2022

Our refreshed unique MRP poll of local voting intention shows Labour set to win seats and councils, with large Conservative losses as Partygate depresses turnout.

COMMENTARY

Russian forces in South Ossetia, Georgia (August 2008)

Ukraine Commentary

The US government does not want to risk escalation with Russia over Ukraine, and most Americans agree. But the British public are not so sure, and this bodes poorly for long-term global security.

COMMENTARY

Probability of Parliamentary outcomes Mar 2022

Commentary March 2022

Prof Richard Rose on why the latest polls show that Labour has a win-win knife edge for gaining Number Ten.

Fraud Poll

How many scam text messages do you receive each month?

Fraud Poll February 2022

Find Out Now and Electoral Calculus new poll about public attitudes and experiences of fraud, including scam texts and emails.

Police Poll

Police Poll February 2022

Find Out Now and Electoral Calculus new poll for the Sunday Telegraph on public attitudes to the Police and the resignation of Cressida Dick.

NHS POLL

Confidence in NHS to provide everyday non-emergency care

NHS Poll January 2022

Find Out Now and Electoral Calculus new poll for the Sunday Mirror asking the public about their confidence in the NHS and how it should be paid for.

BBC POLL

BBC Licence Fee Poll Jan 2022

BBC Licence Fee Poll

Our new poll with Find Out Now shows a clear majority of the public think the BBC Licence fee is bad value for money and should be replaced with a subscription-style approach.

PROPERTY POLL

Popular attitudes to local property development by ward

Property Chronicle Poll July 2021

A regression poll with Find Out Now for the Property Chronicle asked people whether they would support or oppose more house building in their own neighbourhood. Answers varied greatly depending on location.

LIVE UPDATES

Recent national opinion polls

Current state of party support nationally as measured by the opinion pollsters. Data are shown in both graphical and tabular form for national polls taken over the last month or so.

POLITICAL MAPS

Norwich South: localities by EU Ref

Data Map

Our uniquely detailed Data Map of Britain shows twelve political and social measures including past votes and political attitudes.

All available at various geographic levels of detail including parliamentary seats, district wards, and individual neighbourhood localities.

HISTORICAL DATA

A unique electoral data archive from 1955

Data includes historical data flat files of UK elections from 1955 to date plus our track record of predictions and much more.

Post Election 2019

Swings from 2017 to 2019 by Seat

Voter Migration by Seat 2017-19

Using a political triangle, this graphic shows how every seat moved between 2017 and 2019 elections. Changed seats can be shown separately and every seat can be identified.

Post Election 2019

Swings from 2017 to 2019 by Tribe

Voter Migration by Group 2017-19

See how voters moved around based on which political and demographic groups they belong to. Includes the Electoral Calculus seven political tribes, age and attitudes to the EU.

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