General Election Prediction

Current Prediction: Conservative short 36 of majority

Party2017 Votes2017 SeatsPred VotesPred Seats
CON 43.5%318 38.6%290
LAB 41.0%262 38.9%278
LIB 7.6%12 8.5%16
UKIP 1.9%0 5.7%0
Green 1.7%1 3.5%1
SNP 3.1%35 3.4%44
PlaidC 0.5%4 0.5%3
Minor 0.7%0 0.9%0
N.Ire 18 18

Prediction based on opinion polls from 06 Aug 2018 to 29 Aug 2018, sampling 10,192 people.

Probability of possible outcomes

Conservative majority
38%
Labour majority
33%
Lab choice of Lib/Nat
7%
Con/Nat coalition
6%
Con choice of Lib/Nat
5%
Lab/Nat coalition
5%
Nat choice of Con/Lab
4%
No overall control
2%
Lab/Lib coalition
1%

The future is never certain. But using our advanced modelling techniques, we can estimate the probability of the various possible outcomes at the next general election. ('Nat' means SNP+PlaidC)

Polling on Brexit outcomes

What the public really wants from Brexit

Many people easily get confused by the apparent kaleidoscope of possible kinds of Brexit. There often appears to be a galaxy of options, and confusion about what each one means. To help the debate, Electoral Calculus has created an easy-to-understand explanation of the main Brexit possibilities, along with analysis from several recent polls about what the public thinks about them.

The key Brexit options lie on a one-dimensional line with a "hard" Brexit at one end and a "soft" Brexit at the other. We call this line the Brexit Spectrum:

Electoral Calculus Brexit Spectrum

Discover what the British public really wants from Brexit and give us your own views about what is the best type of Brexit in our unique online poll.

Posted 31 August 2018