CURRENT PREDICTION
UK General Election Prediction
Our current poll-of-polls predicts what would happen if there were a general election tomorrow.
Full details of our current prediction.| Party | 2024 Votes | 2024 Seats | Pred Votes | Pred Seats |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CON | 24.4% | 121 | 21.4% | 94 |
| LAB | 34.7% | 412 | 23.4% | 177 |
| LIB | 12.6% | 72 | 13.7% | 60 |
| Reform | 14.7% | 5 | 25.5% | 245 |
| Green | 6.9% | 4 | 9.6% | 4 |
| SNP | 2.6% | 9 | 2.9% | 43 |
| PlaidC | 0.7% | 4 | 0.8% | 4 |
PSEPHOLOGY
Why People vote for Reform
Unique polling analysis by Electoral Calculus looks at why people vote for Reform.
Reform voters have been put off the two big parties by their failure on the issues that matter to the public, and by the parties' focus on things the public don't like.
MRP POLL
MRP Poll April 2025
A new MRP poll for PLMR shows Reform slightly ahead in both votes and seats, with Nigel Farage as likely PM if there were an election.
POLL
Poll on Court Trans Ruling
A poll for the Daily Telegraph with Find Out Now shows the public back the Supreme Court's decision on women-only spaces. The public also support JK Rowling's activism on the issue.
LOCAL ELECTION POLL
Local Election MRP Poll
An Electoral Calculus MRP poll for the Daily Telegraph on the likely results of the local elections in May, including in those local authorities where elections are delayed.
COMMENTARY
Commentary March 2025
Prof Richard Rose says that the first-past-the-post system begins to deliver for Reform.
POLL
Tariff Poll February 2025
A new poll by Electoral Calculus and Find Out Now shows Britons are generally favourable towards international trade, but the country is split between free-traders, protectionists and EU-rejoiners.
LOCAL ELECTIONS
Delays to Local Elections
Although 17 million people were scheduled to vote in local elections this May, over half of them may be frustrated.
Voters may see their chance to elect working councillors delayed by three years due to government plans to re-organise councils, in the biggest delay to democracy in decades.
ANALYSIS
Can Reform Win?
With both major parties doing badly, there is a unique opportunity for Reform UK to try to overtake them. But how many votes do Reform actually need to win at Westminster?
POLL ERROR
Polling errors in 2024
An analysis of polls for the 2024 election looks at possible causes of the polling error, and identifies a possible combination of two factors as potentially interesting.
POLLING
A Voter's Guide to MRP
Our helpful introduction to MRP polling, how it works, and whether Labour will really win nearly 500 seats.
COMMENTARY
Commentary end-December 2024
Prof Richard Rose says that Labour's vote is down but its hold on office is safe for now.
COMMENTARY
Commentary mid-December 2024
Prof Richard Rose says that Coming Third Breaks the Tie.
Posted: 13 December 2024
COMMENTARY
Commentary December 2024
Prof Richard Rose looks why losing a majority needn't mean losing office.
POLLING ANALYSIS
Low Cost MRP Regression
Electoral Calculus has pioneered low-cost MRP regression techniques for high-quality and insightful analysis of polling data.
More detailsCOMMENTARY
Commentary May 2025
Prof Richard Rose says that the Electoral System is failing in its purpose.
EASTER POLL
Easter Poll April 2025
A poll for the Sunday Mirror with Find Out Now looks at a number of topics. The public would like a ban on mobile phones in schools and closer trade ties with the EU, but do not want higher import tariffs.
BIN POLL
Bin Poll April 2025
A poll for the Sunday Mirror with Find Out Now shows that the public want Westminster to intervene to clean up Birmingham's bin mess.
COMMENTARY
Commentary April 2025
Prof Richard Rose says that Labour is haemorrhaging seats to Reform
MRP POLL
MRP Poll February 2025
A new MRP poll for PLMR shows a three-way tie in votes and seats between Labour, Conservatives and Reform UK.
COMMENTARY
Commentary February 2025
Prof Richard Rose says that Reform has cleared the first hurdle in a marathon race.
POLL
National Interests Poll
A new poll for the Daily Express by Electoral Calculus and Find Out Now shows that only 5pc of voters think that Labour usually puts the national interest first.
Voters want to keep the Chagos Islands, but are happy to return the Elgin Marbles.
PSEPHOLOGY DATA
New data release
With the new year, we have updated some of our key datasets, including: estimates of the general election result by ward and output area; new Scottish census data; and new council ward boundaries for 2025.
POLLING
Conservative Defectors in their own words
Our new poll, with Find Out Now, asks people who voted Conservative in 2019, but will not vote Conservative this time, to give their reasons in their own words.
PSEPHOLOGY
Voter Migration since 2019
See graphically how voters are moving between the parties, or not voting at all.
LIVE UPDATES
Recent national opinion polls
Current state of party support nationally as measured by the opinion pollsters. Data are shown in both graphical and tabular form for national polls taken over the last month or so.
POLITICAL MAPS
Data Map
Our uniquely detailed Data Map of Britain shows twelve political and social measures including past votes and political attitudes.
All available at various geographic levels of detail including parliamentary seats, district wards, and individual neighbourhood localities.
HISTORICAL DATA
A unique electoral data archive from 1955
Data includes historical data flat files of UK elections from 1955 to date plus our track record of predictions and much more.