General Election Prediction

Current Prediction: Conservative short 26 of majority

Party2017 Votes2017 SeatsPred VotesPred Seats
CON 43.5%318 39.8%300
LAB 41.0%262 38.9%267
LIB 7.6%12 9.6%17
UKIP 1.9%0 3.4%0
Green 1.7%1 2.6%1
SNP 3.1%35 3.4%44
PlaidC 0.5%4 0.5%3
Minor 0.7%0 1.8%0
N.Ire 18 18

Prediction based on opinion polls from 21 Sep 2018 to 05 Oct 2018, sampling 9,159 people.

Probability of possible outcomes

Conservative majority
Labour majority
Lab choice of Lib/Nat
Con/Nat coalition
Con choice of Lib/Nat
Lab/Nat coalition
Nat choice of Con/Lab
No overall control
Lab/Lib coalition

The future is never certain. But using our advanced modelling techniques, we can estimate the probability of the various possible outcomes at the next general election. ('Nat' means SNP+PlaidC)

Polling on Brexit outcomes

What the public really wants from Brexit

Many people easily get confused by the apparent kaleidoscope of possible kinds of Brexit. There often appears to be a galaxy of options, and confusion about what each one means. To help the debate, Electoral Calculus has created an easy-to-understand explanation of the main Brexit possibilities, along with analysis from several recent polls about what the public thinks about them.

The key Brexit options lie on a one-dimensional line with a "hard" Brexit at one end and a "soft" Brexit at the other. We call this line the Brexit Spectrum:

Electoral Calculus Brexit Spectrum

Discover what the British public really wants from Brexit and give us your own views about what is the best type of Brexit in our unique online poll.

Posted 31 August 2018