CURRENT PREDICTION
UK General Election Prediction
Our current poll-of-polls predicts what would happen if there were a general election tomorrow.
Full details of our current prediction.| Party | 2019 Votes | 2019 Seats | Pred Votes | Pred Seats |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CON | 44.7% | 365 | 26.6% | 135 |
| LAB | 33.0% | 203 | 45.3% | 441 |
| LIB | 11.8% | 11 | 10.6% | 30 |
| Reform | 2.1% | 0 | 7.2% | 0 |
| Green | 2.8% | 1 | 5.3% | 1 |
| SNP | 4.0% | 48 | 3.4% | 21 |
| PlaidC | 0.5% | 4 | 0.8% | 4 |
NEW BOUNDARIES
Final UK seat proposals
Electoral Calculus analysis of the finalised new boundaries shows the Conservatives gaining eleven seats and Labour losing six.
Includes individual predictions of every new seat with maps, ward breakdown and demographics.
COMMENTARY
Commentary October 2023
Prof Richard Rose says that Rishi moves the dial with MPs but not voters.
BY-ELECTIONS
By-elections are not good predictors
Analysis of forty years of by-election results shows that most by-election gains are overturned at the next general election.
COMMENTARY
Commentary August 2023
Prof Richard Rose says that one by-election win does not a General Election victory make.
COMMENTARY
Commentary June 2023
Prof Richard Rose says that Labour is going on the offensive to defend its lead.
LOCAL ELECTIONS
Local Elections 2023 Review
Review of our MRP and non-MRP predictions for the local elections to see how they worked out in practice.
COMMENTARY
Commentary April 2023
Prof Richard Rose says that a narrowing lead still leaves the Tories far behind.
NEW POLL
Labour could win increased majority by turning against Brexit
A new poll for the Constitution Society shows Labour would remain on course to regain all the Red Wall seats and could expand overall support if it said Brexit was a mistake.
NEW WARDS 2023
New Council Wards 2023
New local council wards are now available for forty-nine councils across England whose ward boundaries have been changed in advance of the local elections in May 2023.
COMMENTARY
Commentary February 2023
Prof Richard Rose says that tactical voting by Green voters in Labour's favour could help Labour win.
POLITICAL ATTITUDES
Three-D Politics 2021
An up-to-date refresh of our unique three-D view of political attitudes shows global issues are now the most important, and analyses the prevalence of socially liberal attitudes across various identity groups.
PREDICTION DETAILS
Best predictor of the 2019 UK General Election
Using advanced mathematical regression techniques, coupled with professional but low-cost polling, Electoral Calculus made the most accurate final pre-election forecast in 2019, outperforming all the competition.
See the General Election 2019 case study.
ELECTION ANALYSIS
Which voters changed their minds in 2019, and how many voted tactically?
Read our in-depth analysis of the voter movements behind the 2019 General Election result, seeing how voters realigned by party, by group, by seat, and how many voted tactically.
POLLING ANALYSIS
Low Cost MRP Regression
Electoral Calculus has pioneered low-cost MRP regression techniques for high-quality and insightful analysis of polling data.
More details
Tactical Voting POLL
Tactical Voting Poll September 2023
Our new poll with Find Out Now, conducted for the Independent, shows Labour and the Liberal Democrats likely to benefit from anti-Conservative tactical voting at the next election.
COMMENTARY
Commentary September 2023
Prof Richard Rose says that the Liberals are riding high ahead of the their party conference.
MRP POLL
Labour set for landslide in new MRP poll
Our new MRP poll with Find Out Now, conducted for Channel 4 News, shows Labour set for a landslide election victory. The Conservatives would win less than one hundred seats, and the Liberal Democrats are fighting the SNP for third place.
CONSUMER POLL
Consumer Poll
A new poll from Find Out Now and Electoral Calculus says that voters think consumers are not well served by politicians. People would like to see more houses built and cheaper professionals, but demand for driverless trains has not yet left the station.
CARS POLL
Property Chronicle Poll
Our poll on traffic reduction measures shows that most people are opposed to LTNs, congestion charging and emission zones.
NEW POLL
Public back a reformed monarchy
A new poll for the Constitution Society shows public support for the monarchy, but the public are also keen on reforms, including more financial transparency and less money for minor royals.
COMMENTARY
Commentary May 2023
Prof Richard Rose says that the Conservative position is not too disastrous.
VI POLL
VI Poll March 2023
VI Poll for the Sunday Telegraph with Find Out Now shows Labour's lead over the Conservatives is 23pc.
COMMENTARY
Commentary March 2023
Prof Richard Rose argues that winning an agreement with Brussels doesn't win seats in Britain.
NEW MRP POLL
New large MRP poll signals Conservative wipe-out
Our new large MRP poll with Find Out Now for the Daily Telegraph predicts Labour will win a massive majority, and the Conservatives would not even be the second-largest party.
The Conservatives are losing more support in their strongest seats, which bodes badly for them.
LIVE UPDATES
Recent national opinion polls
Current state of party support nationally as measured by the opinion pollsters. Data are shown in both graphical and tabular form for national polls taken over the last month or so.
POLITICAL MAPS
Data Map
Our uniquely detailed Data Map of Britain shows twelve political and social measures including past votes and political attitudes.
All available at various geographic levels of detail including parliamentary seats, district wards, and individual neighbourhood localities.
HISTORICAL DATA
A unique electoral data archive from 1955
Data includes historical data flat files of UK elections from 1955 to date plus our track record of predictions and much more.
