General Election Prediction

Current Prediction: Conservative majority 14

Party2017 Votes2017 SeatsPred VotesPred Seats
CON 43.5%318 33.1%332
LAB 41.0%262 26.3%214
LIB 7.6%12 17.8%31
Brexit 0.0%0 12.8%0
Green 1.7%1 3.8%1
SNP 3.1%35 3.5%51
PlaidC 0.5%4 0.7%3
UKIP 1.9%0 0.8%0
Other 0.7%0 1.3%0
DUP 10 9
SF 7 7
Alliance 0 1
NI Other 1 1

Prediction based on opinion polls from 30 Aug 2019 to 07 Sep 2019, sampling 12,798 people.

Probability of possible outcomes

Conservative majority
42%
Labour majority
14%
Lab choice of Lib/Nat
7%
Con choice of Lib/Nat
6%
Con/Brexit coalition
6%
Lib choice of Con/Lab
5%
No overall control
4%
Con/Lib coalition
4%
Lab/Lib coalition
3%
Con/Nat coalition
2%
Lab/Nat coalition
2%
LibDem majority
2%
Brexit/Con coalition
1%
Nat choice of Con/Lab
1%
Brexit majority
1%

The future is never certain. But using our advanced modelling techniques, we can estimate the probability of the various possible outcomes at the next general election. ('Nat' means SNP+PlaidC)

General Election

Who would win a General Election?

As an election appears possible, Electoral Calculus looks at the question of who would be likely to win it, according to the opinion polls and our models.

Divided pollsters election predictions 2019

Our analysis looks at out current headline prediction, and at the relatively sophisticated statistical modelling behind it. A special section looks at how seats are likely to change at a regional level, showing the pressures that the two major parties are under. It also highlights the ongoing division of opinion between the pollsters and how that could make a big difference to the outcome.

Read the full story only on Electoral Calculus.

Posted 5 September 2019

Brexit analysis

Boris Johnson wants to skewer Labour on a dilemma to get a Deal approved

Most commentators have missed the point of the five-week suspension of parliament. It is not done in order to achieve No Deal, but rather to achieve an agreed Deal and to force Labour to vote for it.

The true aim is to close off avenues for further delay to Brexit. The government hopes to bring back a revised Withdrawal Agreement and present it to parliament in the second half of October. Although some Conservative Brexiteers will vote against it, the Labour party will be forced to choose between the Deal or No Deal. This will not be the cosy Noel Edmonds' version of the question, but a deadly dilemma to Labour where both options are unattractive.

Jeremy Corbyn and Boris Johnson
Jeremy Corbyn and Boris JohnsonPhotos: Sophie Brown (CC BY-SA 4.0); Prime Minister (Open Government Licence v3.0)

The strategy is not without risks. If the EU refuse to change anything, then the Conservatives will be set on a course to exit without a deal. And if the backstop changes are only cosmetic, then the schism between the Conservative and Brexit parties could become entrenched. But there is a chance of pulling off a spectacular political coup de théâtre rather than a coup d'état.

Read the full analysis here.

Posted 29 August 2019

Election predictions

Conservatives close to, but still short of, a majority

Brexit Outcome implied probabilities 7-Aug-2019

See the facts and figures behind Martin Baxter's election prediction at this week's Chopper's Brexit Podcast.

Topics covered include the overall election prediction, and three useful rules of thumb for understanding polls.

The big division between pollsters continues with some seeing a Labour coalition and others a large majority for Boris Johnson.

And the regular check on the chance of the various Brexit outcomes.

See all the facts and figures here.


Posted 8 August 2019

Political Analysis

Three-D Politics and the Seven Tribes

A major new piece of analysis by Electoral Calculus and pollster ComRes creates a three-dimensional landscape of British politics and identifies the seven political tribes which occupy it.

Electoral Calculus has moved beyond a simplistic one-dimensional view of politics, and even gone further than our own pioneering two-dimensional view, to create a three key dimensions of political attitudes:

Using major polling work by the British Election Study, we can give a political three-D position for each poll respondent identifying their political position on each of the three dimensions.

Groups of like-minded individuals can be spotted to identify seven political tribes of people with similar political attitudes, and gain insight about their demographics and voting behaviour.

The Seven Tribes have also been reported in today's Daily Telegraph. You can see the full details of the Electoral Calculus analysis here on our website.

You can also find out your own 3D political position, and that of your neighbourhood, by taking our short 3D survey.

Posted 20 April 2019