User-defined Prediction

The predicted Westminster results in Scotland, given the Scottish levels of support which you entered, are as follows.

Scottish Prediction

Party2017 Votes2017 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesNet ChangePred Seats
CON 28.6%13 15.0%013-130
LAB 27.1%7 9.0%06-61
LIB 6.8%4 16.0%10+15
Brexit 0.0%0 4.0%00+00
Green 0.2%0 3.0%00+00
SNP 36.9%35 46.0%191+1853
UKIP 0.2%0 0.0%00+00
Other 0.3%0 7.0%00+00

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Table of all seat results in Scotland

This page shows all the seats in Scotland sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'CON Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 30 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk (prediction: SNP), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath (prediction: LAB).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of Scotland seats with predictions

LAB
Seats
CON
Seats
SeatMP at 2017ElectorateTurn
Out%
CON
%
LAB
%
LIB
%
Brexit
%
Green
%
SNP
%
UKIP
%
MIN
%
OTH
%
2017
Win
Pred
Win
11Kirkcaldy and CowdenbeathLesley Laird72,72163.513.241.635.36.73.20.00.00.00.0LABLAB
10Glasgow North EastPaul Sweeney59,93253.08.120.716.60.00.054.60.00.00.0LABSNP
10Glasgow South WestChris Stephens62,99156.26.719.016.35.80.052.10.00.00.0SNPSNP
10Edinburgh SouthIan Murray64,55374.114.525.719.80.03.836.30.00.00.0LABSNP
10Glasgow NorthPatrick Grady53,86362.15.814.315.64.912.546.90.00.00.0SNPSNP
10Coatbridge, Chryston and BellshillHugh Gaffney71,19863.310.819.016.30.03.250.70.00.00.0LABSNP
10Glasgow CentralAlison Thewliss64,34655.98.616.816.20.03.055.60.00.00.0SNPSNP
10Dundee WestChris Law62,64461.75.213.312.84.20.056.60.00.07.8SNPSNP
10GlenrothesPeter Grant66,37860.99.615.816.15.30.053.20.00.00.0SNPSNP
10Glasgow SouthStewart McDonald69,12664.49.315.416.25.23.050.90.00.00.0SNPSNP
10Glasgow EastDavid Linden66,24254.613.018.816.80.00.051.40.00.00.0SNPSNP
10Dunbartonshire WestMartin Docherty67,60265.29.114.612.30.03.053.80.00.07.3SNPSNP
10Na h-Eileanan An Iar (Western Isles)Angus MacNeil21,30169.610.315.714.80.00.051.70.07.50.0SNPSNP
10Glasgow North WestCarol Monaghan63,77360.911.716.917.30.00.054.10.00.00.0SNPSNP
10Rutherglen and Hamilton WestGed Killen80,09863.513.418.119.10.00.049.30.00.00.0LABSNP
10Motherwell and WishawMarion Fellows68,21561.513.918.117.00.00.051.10.00.00.0SNPSNP
10Cumbernauld, Kilsyth and Kirkintilloch EastStuart McDonald66,55465.912.015.916.70.00.055.40.00.00.0SNPSNP
10Paisley and Renfrewshire SouthMhairi Black61,34468.013.416.717.70.00.052.20.00.00.0SNPSNP
10InverclydeRonnie Cowan58,85366.414.717.916.80.00.050.60.00.00.0SNPSNP
10Edinburgh EastTommy Sheppard65,89666.012.114.817.20.02.953.10.00.00.0SNPSNP
10Orkney and ShetlandAlistair Carmichael34,16468.10.31.854.72.70.035.20.00.05.3LIBLIB
10Airdrie and ShottsNeil Gray64,14659.216.016.115.90.03.148.90.00.00.0SNPSNP
10Aberdeen NorthKirsty Blackman62,13059.212.412.317.25.02.850.40.00.00.0SNPSNP
10MidlothianDanielle Rowley68,32866.317.817.318.20.00.046.60.00.00.0LABSNP
10Dunfermline and West FifeDouglas Chapman75,67267.417.014.419.20.03.046.40.00.00.0SNPSNP
10Edinburgh North and LeithDeidre Brock79,47371.213.911.114.24.26.043.60.00.07.1SNPSNP
10LivingstonHannah Bardell81,20864.716.713.815.90.02.950.70.00.00.0SNPSNP
10Dunbartonshire EastJo Swinson66,30078.16.02.747.10.02.037.40.00.04.8LIBLIB
10East LothianMartin Whitfield79,09370.621.417.418.10.00.043.10.00.00.0LABSNP
10East Kilbride, Strathaven and LesmahagowLisa Cameron80,44267.317.513.316.30.03.049.80.00.00.0SNPSNP
10Linlithgow and East FalkirkMartyn Day86,18665.115.411.113.24.22.946.00.00.07.1SNPSNP
10Paisley and Renfrewshire NorthGavin Newlands67,43669.119.214.816.90.00.049.10.00.00.0SNPSNP
10Kilmarnock and LoudounAlan Brown73,32763.416.311.512.00.00.053.40.00.06.8SNPSNP
10FalkirkJohnny McNally82,24065.418.112.315.20.04.649.70.00.00.0SNPSNP
10Dundee EastStewart Hosie65,85465.216.810.013.20.00.053.50.00.06.5SNPSNP
10Lanark and Hamilton EastAngela Crawley77,31365.323.015.117.00.00.044.90.00.00.0SNPSNP
10Caithness Sutherland and Easter RossJamie Stone46,86865.911.53.544.93.70.036.40.00.00.0LIBLIB
10Edinburgh WestChristine Jardine71,50073.813.44.243.90.02.136.40.00.00.0LIBLIB
10Ross Skye and LochaberIan Blackford53,63871.712.12.328.13.10.047.60.00.06.8SNPSNP
10Edinburgh South WestJoanna Cherry71,17869.418.78.813.74.12.844.90.00.06.9SNPSNP
10Ayrshire North and ArranPatricia Gibson73,17464.821.911.115.00.02.849.20.00.00.0SNPSNP
10Fife North EastStephen Gethins58,68571.314.92.642.00.00.040.40.00.00.0SNPLIB
10Ayrshire CentralPhilippa Whitford68,99765.324.411.815.50.00.048.40.00.00.0SNPSNP
10Inverness Nairn Badenoch and StrathspeyDrew Hendry76,84468.718.24.922.94.22.347.50.00.00.0SNPSNP
10Renfrewshire EastPaul Masterton70,06776.729.012.215.80.00.042.90.00.00.0CONSNP
10StirlingStephen Kerr66,41574.326.48.415.80.02.746.60.00.00.0CONSNP
10Ayr Carrick and CumnockBill Grant71,24164.928.910.615.10.00.045.40.00.00.0CONSNP
10Argyll and ButeBrendan O'Hara67,23071.522.44.228.60.00.044.80.00.00.0SNPSNP
10Ochil and South PerthshireLuke Graham76,76770.629.78.515.80.00.046.00.00.00.0CONSNP
10Aberdeen SouthRoss Thomson64,96468.530.38.818.60.00.042.30.00.00.0CONSNP
10Dumfries and GallowayAlister Jack74,20669.531.69.315.80.00.043.30.00.00.0CONSNP
10Perth and North PerthshirePete Wishart71,74371.827.12.715.44.20.050.50.00.00.0SNPSNP
10GordonColin Clark78,53168.428.53.922.50.00.045.10.00.00.0CONSNP
10AngusKirstene Hair63,84063.032.24.714.80.00.048.40.00.00.0CONSNP
10Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and TweeddaleDavid Mundell67,67272.435.96.716.60.00.040.80.00.00.0CONSNP
10MorayDouglas Ross70,64967.434.13.713.80.00.048.40.00.00.0CONSNP
10Aberdeenshire West and KincardineAndrew Bowie72,47771.234.33.620.00.00.042.10.00.00.0CONSNP
10Banff and BuchanDavid Duguid67,60161.634.23.014.40.00.048.40.00.00.0CONSNP
10Berwickshire, Roxburgh and SelkirkJohn Lamont73,19171.538.93.015.90.00.042.20.00.00.0CONSNP

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2017. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.


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