User-defined Prediction

The predicted Westminster results in Scotland, given the Scottish levels of support which you entered, are as follows.

Scottish Prediction

Party2017 Votes2017 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesNet ChangePred Seats
CON 28.6%13 15.0%012-121
LAB 27.1%7 9.0%05-52
LIB 6.8%4 16.0%10+15
Brexit 0.0%0 4.0%00+00
Green 0.2%0 3.0%00+00
SNP 36.9%35 46.0%171+1651
UKIP 0.2%0 0.0%00+00
Other 0.3%0 7.0%00+00

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Table of all seat results in Scotland

This page shows all the seats in Scotland sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'CON Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 30 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk (prediction: CON), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath (prediction: LAB).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of Scotland seats with predictions

LAB
Seats
CON
Seats
SeatMP at 2017ElectorateTurn
Out%
CON
%
LAB
%
LIB
%
Brexit
%
Green
%
SNP
%
UKIP
%
MIN
%
OTH
%
2017
Win
Pred
Win
13Kirkcaldy and CowdenbeathLesley Laird72,72163.511.543.535.26.73.20.00.00.00.0LABLAB
22Edinburgh SouthIan Murray64,55374.111.234.217.20.03.234.20.00.00.0LABLAB
21Glasgow North EastPaul Sweeney59,93253.08.324.514.50.00.052.70.00.00.0LABSNP
21Glasgow South WestChris Stephens62,99156.26.322.115.15.30.051.10.00.00.0SNPSNP
21Coatbridge, Chryston and BellshillHugh Gaffney71,19863.39.623.014.90.02.949.60.00.00.0LABSNP
21Glasgow CentralAlison Thewliss64,34655.98.719.214.90.02.754.60.00.00.0SNPSNP
21Glasgow EastDavid Linden66,24254.611.121.316.50.00.051.10.00.00.0SNPSNP
21Glasgow SouthStewart McDonald69,12664.47.417.316.25.23.050.90.00.00.0SNPSNP
21GlenrothesPeter Grant66,37860.97.517.016.55.40.053.50.00.00.0SNPSNP
21Glasgow NorthPatrick Grady53,86362.15.915.315.24.712.446.50.00.00.0SNPSNP
21Rutherglen and Hamilton WestGed Killen80,09863.511.220.419.10.00.049.30.00.00.0LABSNP
21Dundee WestChris Law62,64461.74.713.812.84.20.056.60.00.07.8SNPSNP
21Motherwell and WishawMarion Fellows68,21561.511.520.517.00.00.051.10.00.00.0SNPSNP
21Dunbartonshire WestMartin Docherty67,60265.27.916.911.90.02.953.40.00.07.0SNPSNP
21Glasgow North WestCarol Monaghan63,77360.910.218.517.20.00.054.10.00.00.0SNPSNP
21InverclydeRonnie Cowan58,85366.412.520.116.80.00.050.60.00.00.0SNPSNP
21Na h-Eileanan An Iar (Western Isles)Angus MacNeil21,30169.69.616.514.80.00.051.70.07.50.0SNPSNP
21Paisley and Renfrewshire SouthMhairi Black61,34468.011.417.918.10.00.052.50.00.00.0SNPSNP
21Cumbernauld, Kilsyth and Kirkintilloch EastStuart McDonald66,55465.910.516.917.00.00.055.70.00.00.0SNPSNP
21Edinburgh EastTommy Sheppard65,89666.010.415.917.40.02.953.30.00.00.0SNPSNP
21Airdrie and ShottsNeil Gray64,14659.214.218.215.80.03.148.80.00.00.0SNPSNP
21MidlothianDanielle Rowley68,32866.316.519.118.00.00.046.50.00.00.0LABSNP
21Aberdeen NorthKirsty Blackman62,13059.210.711.718.15.43.051.10.00.00.0SNPSNP
21Dunfermline and West FifeDouglas Chapman75,67267.415.715.319.40.03.046.60.00.00.0SNPSNP
21LivingstonHannah Bardell81,20864.715.314.216.40.03.051.10.00.00.0SNPSNP
21Orkney and ShetlandAlistair Carmichael34,16468.12.51.254.22.40.034.70.00.04.9LIBLIB
21East LothianMartin Whitfield79,09370.620.819.017.60.00.042.60.00.00.0LABSNP
21Edinburgh North and LeithDeidre Brock79,47371.213.010.914.64.36.143.90.00.07.3SNPSNP
21East Kilbride, Strathaven and LesmahagowLisa Cameron80,44267.316.513.416.80.03.150.20.00.00.0SNPSNP
21Paisley and Renfrewshire NorthGavin Newlands67,43669.118.515.017.20.00.049.30.00.00.0SNPSNP
21Linlithgow and East FalkirkMartyn Day86,18665.114.910.913.44.33.046.20.00.07.3SNPSNP
21Kilmarnock and LoudounAlan Brown73,32763.415.510.512.60.00.054.10.00.07.2SNPSNP
21FalkirkJohnny McNally82,24065.417.311.715.90.04.850.30.00.00.0SNPSNP
21Dunbartonshire EastJo Swinson66,30078.16.40.847.60.02.138.00.00.05.1LIBLIB
21Caithness Sutherland and Easter RossJamie Stone46,86865.99.82.846.04.10.037.30.00.00.0LIBLIB
21Lanark and Hamilton EastAngela Crawley77,31365.323.215.116.90.00.044.90.00.00.0SNPSNP
21Dundee EastStewart Hosie65,85465.216.27.914.20.00.054.50.00.07.2SNPSNP
21Ross Skye and LochaberIan Blackford53,63871.710.71.628.83.40.048.30.00.07.2SNPSNP
21Edinburgh WestChristine Jardine71,50073.812.02.445.50.02.537.70.00.00.0LIBLIB
21Fife North EastStephen Gethins58,68571.313.62.942.60.00.040.90.00.00.0SNPLIB
21Edinburgh South WestJoanna Cherry71,17869.419.26.914.24.33.045.30.00.07.2SNPSNP
21Ayrshire North and ArranPatricia Gibson73,17464.822.19.615.60.03.049.70.00.00.0SNPSNP
21Ayrshire CentralPhilippa Whitford68,99765.325.39.816.10.00.048.90.00.00.0SNPSNP
21Inverness Nairn Badenoch and StrathspeyDrew Hendry76,84468.718.22.323.94.62.648.30.00.00.0SNPSNP
21Argyll and ButeBrendan O'Hara67,23071.522.93.228.80.00.045.00.00.00.0SNPSNP
21Renfrewshire EastPaul Masterton70,06776.730.910.315.90.00.042.90.00.00.0CONSNP
21StirlingStephen Kerr66,41574.328.14.916.80.02.947.40.00.00.0CONSNP
21Ayr Carrick and CumnockBill Grant71,24164.931.07.715.60.00.045.70.00.00.0CONSNP
21Perth and North PerthshirePete Wishart71,74371.829.42.514.53.80.049.80.00.00.0SNPSNP
21GordonColin Clark78,53168.430.33.121.90.00.044.60.00.00.0CONSNP
21Ochil and South PerthshireLuke Graham76,76770.632.24.316.70.00.046.70.00.00.0CONSNP
21Aberdeen SouthRoss Thomson64,96468.532.94.819.40.00.042.90.00.00.0CONSNP
21Dumfries and GallowayAlister Jack74,20669.534.45.316.40.00.043.90.00.00.0CONSNP
21AngusKirstene Hair63,84063.034.93.314.10.00.047.70.00.00.0CONSNP
21MorayDouglas Ross70,64967.437.23.112.50.00.047.30.00.00.0CONSNP
21Aberdeenshire West and KincardineAndrew Bowie72,47771.237.33.018.70.00.041.00.00.00.0CONSNP
21Banff and BuchanDavid Duguid67,60161.637.22.812.90.00.047.10.00.00.0CONSNP
21Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and TweeddaleDavid Mundell67,67272.439.73.816.10.00.040.40.00.00.0CONSNP
31Berwickshire, Roxburgh and SelkirkJohn Lamont73,19171.543.02.713.80.00.040.50.00.00.0CONCON

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2017. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.


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