User-defined Prediction

The predicted results in the country and in Scotland, given the National levels of support which you entered, are as follows.

National Prediction: Conservative short 29 of majority

Party2017 Votes2017 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesNet ChangePred Seats
CON 43.5%318 20.0%526-21297
LAB 41.0%262 20.0%090-90172
LIB 7.6%12 21.0%220+2234
Brexit 0.0%0 23.0%740+7474
Green 1.7%1 9.0%00+01
SNP 3.1%35 3.9%160+1651
PlaidC 0.5%4 0.5%01-13
UKIP 1.9%0 1.0%00+00
Other 0.7%0 1.8%00+00
N.Ire 18 00+018

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Table of all seat results in Scotland

Scotland Prediction

Party2017 Votes2017 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesNet ChangePred Seats
CON 28.6%13 17.0%011-112
LAB 27.1%7 15.0%05-52
LIB 6.8%4 12.0%00+04
Brexit 0.0%0 8.0%00+00
Green 0.2%0 5.0%00+00
SNP 36.9%35 43.0%160+1651
UKIP 0.2%0 0.0%00+00
Other 0.3%0 0.0%00+00

This page shows all the seats in Scotland sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'CON Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine (prediction: SNP), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Glasgow North West (prediction: SNP).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of Scotland seats with predictions

LAB
Seats
CON
Seats
SeatMP at 2017ElectorateTurn
Out%
CON
%
LAB
%
LIB
%
Brexit
%
Green
%
SNP
%
UKIP
%
MIN
%
OTH
%
2017
Win
Pred
Win
28442Kirkcaldy and CowdenbeathLesley Laird72,72163.512.747.025.59.65.10.00.00.00.0LABLAB
65405Edinburgh SouthIan Murray64,55374.115.439.08.70.05.331.50.00.00.0LABLAB
66403Glasgow South WestChris Stephens62,99156.25.428.78.38.90.048.60.00.00.0SNPSNP
72397Glasgow North EastPaul Sweeney59,93253.08.731.28.20.00.051.80.00.00.0LABSNP
111358Coatbridge, Chryston and BellshillHugh Gaffney71,19863.311.828.57.40.04.947.40.00.00.0LABSNP
112357Glasgow NorthPatrick Grady53,86362.14.721.38.57.714.343.50.00.00.0SNPSNP
112357Dundee WestChris Law62,64461.75.922.39.28.40.054.20.00.00.0SNPSNP
120349Glasgow CentralAlison Thewliss64,34655.99.525.08.10.04.752.70.00.00.0SNPSNP
123346GlenrothesPeter Grant66,37860.98.923.79.08.30.050.20.00.00.0SNPSNP
124345Glasgow SouthStewart McDonald69,12664.48.523.08.58.04.847.20.00.00.0SNPSNP
140329Glasgow EastDavid Linden66,24254.614.527.78.40.00.049.30.00.00.0SNPSNP
143326Glasgow North WestCarol Monaghan63,77360.913.225.29.70.00.052.00.00.00.0SNPSNP
145324Dunbartonshire WestMartin Docherty67,60265.212.524.37.50.04.850.90.00.00.0SNPSNP
146323Rutherglen and Hamilton WestGed Killen80,09863.515.026.810.90.00.047.30.00.00.0LABSNP
146323Na h-Eileanan An Iar (Western Isles)Angus MacNeil21,30169.611.723.37.70.00.049.90.07.50.0SNPSNP
149320Motherwell and WishawMarion Fellows68,21561.515.627.08.70.00.048.70.00.00.0SNPSNP
156313InverclydeRonnie Cowan58,85366.416.426.68.70.00.048.20.00.00.0SNPSNP
158311Cumbernauld, Kilsyth and Kirkintilloch EastStuart McDonald66,55465.913.723.69.20.00.053.60.00.00.0SNPSNP
163306Paisley and Renfrewshire SouthMhairi Black61,34468.014.924.39.80.00.051.00.00.00.0SNPSNP
170299Edinburgh EastTommy Sheppard65,89666.013.621.89.40.04.750.50.00.00.0SNPSNP
171298Airdrie and ShottsNeil Gray64,14659.217.923.87.50.04.945.90.00.00.0SNPSNP
171298Aberdeen NorthKirsty Blackman62,13059.211.717.510.08.34.947.60.00.00.0SNPSNP
171298MidlothianDanielle Rowley68,32866.320.025.710.10.00.044.20.00.00.0LABSNP
172297Orkney and ShetlandAlistair Carmichael34,16468.10.43.553.77.10.035.30.00.00.0LIBLIB
172297Edinburgh North and LeithDeidre Brock79,47371.215.718.49.88.07.840.10.00.00.0SNPSNP
172297Dunfermline and West FifeDouglas Chapman75,67267.419.221.111.20.04.843.70.00.00.0SNPSNP
172297East LothianMartin Whitfield79,09370.623.925.59.70.00.040.80.00.00.0LABSNP
172297LivingstonHannah Bardell81,20864.718.920.18.10.04.848.20.00.00.0SNPSNP
172297Linlithgow and East FalkirkMartyn Day86,18665.117.418.48.78.14.842.50.00.00.0SNPSNP
172297Paisley and Renfrewshire NorthGavin Newlands67,43669.121.721.89.40.00.047.10.00.00.0SNPSNP
172297East Kilbride, Strathaven and LesmahagowLisa Cameron80,44267.320.019.38.40.05.047.30.00.00.0SNPSNP
173296Kilmarnock and LoudounAlan Brown73,32763.420.819.28.20.00.051.80.00.00.0SNPSNP
173296FalkirkJohnny McNally82,24065.420.717.67.60.06.747.40.00.00.0SNPSNP
173296Lanark and Hamilton EastAngela Crawley77,31365.326.122.09.00.00.042.90.00.00.0SNPSNP
173296Dundee EastStewart Hosie65,85465.221.416.79.70.00.052.20.00.00.0SNPSNP
173296Dunbartonshire EastJo Swinson66,30078.19.34.645.00.04.037.10.00.00.0LIBLIB
174295Edinburgh South WestJoanna Cherry71,17869.421.214.79.68.04.841.70.00.00.0SNPSNP
174295Caithness Sutherland and Easter RossJamie Stone46,86865.911.74.441.17.30.035.60.00.00.0LIBLIB
175294Ross Skye and LochaberIan Blackford53,63871.713.74.426.78.00.047.30.00.00.0SNPSNP
175294Ayrshire North and ArranPatricia Gibson73,17464.825.015.77.60.04.847.00.00.00.0SNPSNP
175294Ayrshire CentralPhilippa Whitford68,99765.327.816.98.50.00.046.80.00.00.0SNPSNP
175294Edinburgh WestChristine Jardine71,50073.816.04.939.00.04.235.80.00.00.0LIBLIB
178291Inverness Nairn Badenoch and StrathspeyDrew Hendry76,84468.718.75.717.47.84.745.80.00.00.0SNPSNP
181288Fife North EastStephen Gethins58,68571.317.92.838.20.00.041.20.00.00.0SNPSNP
181288Renfrewshire EastPaul Masterton70,06776.733.017.58.40.00.041.10.00.00.0CONSNP
184285Ayr Carrick and CumnockBill Grant71,24164.933.015.08.10.00.043.90.00.00.0CONSNP
185284StirlingStephen Kerr66,41574.330.311.18.80.04.945.00.00.00.0CONSNP
194275Argyll and ButeBrendan O'Hara67,23071.526.35.123.80.00.044.80.00.00.0SNPSNP
198271Ochil and South PerthshireLuke Graham76,76770.634.111.79.40.00.044.90.00.00.0CONSNP
198271Aberdeen SouthRoss Thomson64,96468.534.712.112.00.00.041.10.00.00.0CONSNP
208261Dumfries and GallowayAlister Jack74,20669.536.012.68.90.00.042.50.00.00.0CONSNP
226243Perth and North PerthshirePete Wishart71,74371.829.12.810.87.90.049.40.00.00.0SNPSNP
244225GordonColin Clark78,53168.433.14.517.40.00.044.90.00.00.0CONSNP
273196AngusKirstene Hair63,84063.037.25.69.20.00.047.90.00.00.0CONSNP
281189Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and TweeddaleDavid Mundell67,67272.441.28.810.20.00.039.80.00.00.0CONCON
324145MorayDouglas Ross70,64967.439.43.98.40.00.048.30.00.00.0CONSNP
330139Aberdeenshire West and KincardineAndrew Bowie72,47771.239.64.014.60.00.041.80.00.00.0CONSNP
342127Banff and BuchanDavid Duguid67,60161.639.63.09.30.00.048.20.00.00.0CONSNP
44030Berwickshire, Roxburgh and SelkirkJohn Lamont73,19171.544.82.910.50.00.041.80.00.00.0CONCON

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2017. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.


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