Election Prediction

The predicted results in the country and in Scotland, given the National levels of support which you entered, are as follows.

National Prediction: Conservative short 18 of majority

Table of all seat results in Scotland

Scotland Prediction

This page shows all the seats in Scotland sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The seat 'Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath' where the LAB−CON difference is biggest is at the top. And the seat 'Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk', where the CON−LAB difference is biggest, is at the bottom. These extreme seats may not always have the largest majorities, due to the presence of other parties.

The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'CON Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Gordon (prediction: SNP), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Airdrie and Shotts (prediction: SNP).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

Party	2017 Votes	2017 Seats	Pred Votes	Gains	Losses	Net Change	Pred Seats
CON	43.5%	318	22.0%	2	12	-10	308
LAB	41.0%	262	28.0%	0	12	-12	250
LIB	7.6%	12	11.0%	4	0	+4	16
Brexit	0.0%	0	21.0%	5	0	+5	5
Green	1.7%	1	6.0%	0	0	+0	1
SNP	3.1%	35	3.6%	15	1	+14	49
PlaidC	0.5%	4	0.5%	0	1	-1	3
UKIP	1.9%	0	4.0%	0	0	+0	0
Other	0.7%	0	4.0%	0	0	+0	0
N.Ire		18		0	0	+0	18

Party	2017 Votes	2017 Seats	Pred Votes	Gains	Losses	Net Change	Pred Seats
CON	28.6%	13	21.0%	0	10	-10	3
LAB	27.1%	7	18.0%	0	5	-5	2
LIB	6.8%	4	11.0%	1	0	+1	5
Brexit	0.0%	0	0.0%	0	0	+0	0
Green	0.2%	0	4.0%	0	0	+0	0
SNP	36.9%	35	41.0%	15	1	+14	49
UKIP	0.2%	0	0.0%	0	0	+0	0
Other	0.3%	0	5.0%	0	0	+0	0

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of Scotland seats with predictions

LAB Seats	CON Seats	Seat	MP at 2017	Electorate	Turn Out%	CON %	LAB %	LIB %	Green %	SNP %	UKIP %	MIN %	OTH %	2017 Win	Pred Win
66	493	Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath	Lesley Laird	72,721	63.5	17.5	52.1	26.3	4.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	LAB	LAB
74	485	Edinburgh South	Ian Murray	64,553	74.1	13.4	47.0	9.3	3.7	26.6	0.0	0.0	0.0	LAB	LAB
95	463	Glasgow North East	Paul Sweeney	59,932	53.0	6.6	36.9	9.1	0.0	47.4	0.0	0.0	0.0	LAB	SNP
122	436	Glasgow South West	Chris Stephens	62,991	56.2	9.4	34.7	9.6	0.0	46.3	0.0	0.0	0.0	SNP	SNP
122	436	Coatbridge, Chryston and Bellshill	Hugh Gaffney	71,198	63.3	10.0	34.7	8.4	3.7	43.2	0.0	0.0	0.0	LAB	SNP
140	418	Glasgow Central	Alison Thewliss	64,346	55.9	7.7	30.5	9.3	3.7	48.8	0.0	0.0	0.0	SNP	SNP
163	395	Glasgow East	David Linden	66,242	54.6	12.9	33.0	9.7	0.0	44.4	0.0	0.0	0.0	SNP	SNP
177	381	Dunbartonshire West	Martin Docherty	67,602	65.2	9.6	28.6	6.5	3.7	46.9	0.0	0.0	4.7	SNP	SNP
181	377	Rutherglen and Hamilton West	Ged Killen	80,098	63.5	13.5	31.8	12.1	0.0	42.5	0.0	0.0	0.0	LAB	SNP
183	375	Glasgow North West	Carol Monaghan	63,773	60.9	11.7	29.8	10.7	0.0	47.7	0.0	0.0	0.0	SNP	SNP
184	374	Glasgow North	Patrick Grady	53,863	62.1	8.5	26.5	9.8	13.5	41.7	0.0	0.0	0.0	SNP	SNP
188	370	Motherwell and Wishaw	Marion Fellows	68,215	61.5	14.1	31.9	9.9	0.0	44.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	SNP	SNP
191	367	Na h-Eileanan An Iar (Western Isles)	Angus MacNeil	21,301	69.6	10.2	27.7	8.8	0.0	45.8	0.0	7.5	0.0	SNP	SNP
191	367	Dundee West	Chris Law	62,644	61.7	8.6	25.8	8.0	0.0	51.9	0.0	0.0	5.7	SNP	SNP
201	357	Inverclyde	Ronnie Cowan	58,853	66.4	15.2	31.5	9.6	0.0	43.7	0.0	0.0	0.0	SNP	SNP
203	355	Cumbernauld, Kilsyth and Kirkintilloch East	Stuart McDonald	66,554	65.9	12.1	28.1	10.5	0.0	49.3	0.0	0.0	0.0	SNP	SNP
204	354	Glasgow South	Stewart McDonald	69,126	64.4	12.8	28.6	9.6	3.7	45.2	0.0	0.0	0.0	SNP	SNP
208	350	Glenrothes	Peter Grant	66,378	60.9	13.2	28.7	10.1	0.0	48.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	SNP	SNP
208	350	Paisley and Renfrewshire South	Mhairi Black	61,344	68.0	13.8	29.0	11.3	0.0	45.9	0.0	0.0	0.0	SNP	SNP
216	342	Edinburgh East	Tommy Sheppard	65,896	66.0	12.3	26.7	10.6	3.7	46.6	0.0	0.0	0.0	SNP	SNP
232	326	Airdrie and Shotts	Neil Gray	64,146	59.2	16.9	29.2	8.5	3.7	41.7	0.0	0.0	0.0	SNP	SNP
233	325	Midlothian	Danielle Rowley	68,328	66.3	19.2	30.3	10.9	0.0	39.6	0.0	0.0	0.0	LAB	SNP
242	316	Dunfermline and West Fife	Douglas Chapman	75,672	67.4	18.4	25.9	12.3	3.7	39.6	0.0	0.0	0.0	SNP	SNP
246	312	East Lothian	Martin Whitfield	79,093	70.6	23.5	30.2	10.5	0.0	35.8	0.0	0.0	0.0	LAB	SNP
246	312	Livingston	Hannah Bardell	81,208	64.7	18.1	24.7	9.3	3.7	44.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	SNP	SNP
247	311	Aberdeen North	Kirsty Blackman	62,130	59.2	16.8	22.4	11.7	3.7	45.3	0.0	0.0	0.0	SNP	SNP
248	310	East Kilbride, Strathaven and Lesmahagow	Lisa Cameron	80,442	67.3	19.1	23.9	9.8	4.0	43.2	0.0	0.0	0.0	SNP	SNP
248	310	Paisley and Renfrewshire North	Gavin Newlands	67,436	69.1	21.3	25.8	10.3	0.0	42.7	0.0	0.0	0.0	SNP	SNP
249	309	Kilmarnock and Loudoun	Alan Brown	73,327	63.4	19.1	21.6	7.1	0.0	47.6	0.0	0.0	4.7	SNP	SNP
249	309	Edinburgh North and Leith	Deidre Brock	79,473	71.2	19.6	22.1	8.8	6.8	38.1	0.0	0.0	4.7	SNP	SNP
249	309	Orkney and Shetland	Alistair Carmichael	34,164	68.1	2.1	4.2	53.6	0.0	34.3	0.0	0.0	5.8	LIB	LIB
249	309	Falkirk	Johnny McNally	82,240	65.4	20.0	21.9	9.0	5.7	43.3	0.0	0.0	0.0	SNP	SNP
250	308	Linlithgow and East Falkirk	Martyn Day	86,186	65.1	21.5	22.0	7.6	3.7	40.4	0.0	0.0	4.7	SNP	SNP
250	308	Lanark and Hamilton East	Angela Crawley	77,313	65.3	25.9	26.0	10.0	0.0	38.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	SNP	SNP
250	308	Dundee East	Stewart Hosie	65,854	65.2	19.7	18.8	8.7	0.0	48.1	0.0	0.0	4.7	SNP	SNP
250	308	Dunbartonshire East	Jo Swinson	66,300	78.1	7.0	5.4	44.8	3.7	34.3	0.0	0.0	4.7	LIB	LIB
251	307	Ayrshire North and Arran	Patricia Gibson	73,174	64.8	25.0	19.6	8.8	3.7	43.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	SNP	SNP
252	306	Ayrshire Central	Philippa Whitford	68,997	65.3	28.1	20.0	9.4	0.0	42.4	0.0	0.0	0.0	SNP	SNP
252	306	Edinburgh South West	Joanna Cherry	71,178	69.4	25.7	17.7	8.5	3.7	39.7	0.0	0.0	4.7	SNP	SNP
252	306	Edinburgh West	Christine Jardine	71,500	73.8	15.7	7.0	40.8	3.7	32.7	0.0	0.0	0.0	LIB	LIB
254	304	Caithness Sutherland and Easter Ross	Jamie Stone	46,868	65.9	16.3	6.3	42.9	0.0	34.4	0.0	0.0	0.0	LIB	LIB
256	302	Ross Skye and Lochaber	Ian Blackford	53,638	71.7	17.2	5.0	25.8	0.0	45.5	0.0	0.0	6.5	SNP	SNP
256	302	Renfrewshire East	Paul Masterton	70,067	76.7	33.7	20.6	9.2	0.0	36.5	0.0	0.0	0.0	CON	SNP
260	298	Fife North East	Stephen Gethins	58,685	71.3	18.0	4.0	40.1	0.0	38.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	SNP	LIB
268	290	Inverness Nairn Badenoch and Strathspey	Drew Hendry	76,844	68.7	24.6	8.5	19.2	3.7	43.9	0.0	0.0	0.0	SNP	SNP
268	290	Ayr Carrick and Cumnock	Bill Grant	71,241	64.9	33.9	17.8	9.0	0.0	39.4	0.0	0.0	0.0	CON	SNP
269	289	Stirling	Stephen Kerr	66,415	74.3	31.0	14.3	10.1	3.7	40.8	0.0	0.0	0.0	CON	SNP
286	272	Argyll and Bute	Brendan O'Hara	67,230	71.5	27.0	6.5	25.3	0.0	41.2	0.0	0.0	0.0	SNP	SNP
288	270	Ochil and South Perthshire	Luke Graham	76,767	70.6	35.2	14.0	10.3	0.0	40.5	0.0	0.0	0.0	CON	SNP
289	269	Aberdeen South	Ross Thomson	64,964	68.5	35.9	14.5	13.0	0.0	36.7	0.0	0.0	0.0	CON	SNP
295	263	Dumfries and Galloway	Alister Jack	74,206	69.5	37.3	15.1	10.0	0.0	37.6	0.0	0.0	0.0	CON	SNP
328	230	Gordon	Colin Clark	78,531	68.4	34.4	5.7	18.7	0.0	41.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	CON	SNP
356	202	Perth and North Perthshire	Pete Wishart	71,743	71.8	36.0	4.3	12.1	0.0	47.5	0.0	0.0	0.0	SNP	SNP
358	200	Angus	Kirstene Hair	63,840	63.0	38.9	7.0	10.4	0.0	43.8	0.0	0.0	0.0	CON	SNP
367	192	Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale	David Mundell	67,672	72.4	43.1	10.5	11.1	0.0	35.3	0.0	0.0	0.0	CON	CON
408	150	Moray	Douglas Ross	70,649	67.4	41.4	5.0	9.6	0.0	44.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	CON	SNP
413	146	Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine	Andrew Bowie	72,477	71.2	41.6	5.0	15.8	0.0	37.7	0.0	0.0	0.0	CON	CON
426	132	Banff and Buchan	David Duguid	67,601	61.6	41.7	3.8	10.4	0.0	44.2	0.0	0.0	0.0	CON	SNP
509	50	Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk	John Lamont	73,191	71.5	47.5	3.6	11.3	0.0	37.6	0.0	0.0	0.0	CON	CON

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2017. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.

User-defined Prediction

National Prediction: Conservative short 18 of majority

Table of all seat results in Scotland

Scotland Prediction

List of Scotland seats with predictions