User-defined Prediction

The predicted results in the country and in Scotland, given the National levels of support which you entered, are as follows.

National Prediction: Conservative short 18 of majority

Party2017 Votes2017 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesNet ChangePred Seats
CON 43.5%318 22.0%212-10308
LAB 41.0%262 28.0%011-11251
LIB 7.6%12 11.0%40+416
Brexit 0.0%0 21.0%40+44
Green 1.7%1 6.0%00+01
SNP 3.1%35 3.6%151+1449
PlaidC 0.5%4 0.5%01-13
UKIP 1.9%0 4.0%00+00
Other 0.7%0 4.0%00+00
N.Ire 18 00+018

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Table of all seat results in Scotland

Scotland Prediction

Party2017 Votes2017 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesNet ChangePred Seats
CON 28.6%13 21.0%010-103
LAB 27.1%7 18.0%05-52
LIB 6.8%4 11.0%10+15
Brexit 0.0%0 0.0%00+00
Green 0.2%0 4.0%00+00
SNP 36.9%35 41.0%151+1449
UKIP 0.2%0 0.0%00+00
Other 0.3%0 5.0%00+00

This page shows all the seats in Scotland sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'CON Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Angus (prediction: SNP), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Edinburgh East (prediction: SNP).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of Scotland seats with predictions

SeatMP at 2017ElectorateTurn
87473Kirkcaldy and CowdenbeathLesley Laird72,72163.517.351.427.
97463Edinburgh SouthIan Murray64,55374.113.346.
126433Glasgow North EastPaul Sweeney59,93253.
151408Glasgow South WestChris Stephens62,99156.210.833.
156403Coatbridge, Chryston and BellshillHugh Gaffney71,19863.311.
182377Glasgow CentralAlison Thewliss64,34655.99.729.48.93.548.
189370Glasgow EastDavid Linden66,24254.613.
198361Rutherglen and Hamilton WestGed Killen80,09863.513.531.
200359Motherwell and WishawMarion Fellows68,21561.513.931.
200359Dunbartonshire WestMartin Docherty67,60265.210.427.56.63.847.
204355Glasgow North WestCarol Monaghan63,77360.912.328.910.
214345InverclydeRonnie Cowan58,85366.415.030.710.
217342Na h-Eileanan An Iar (Western Isles)Angus MacNeil21,30169.611.326.
217342Glasgow NorthPatrick Grady53,86362.
220339Dundee WestChris Law62,64461.79.824.
222337Glasgow SouthStewart McDonald69,12664.412.927.710.
223336Cumbernauld, Kilsyth and Kirkintilloch EastStuart McDonald66,55465.912.527.
223336GlenrothesPeter Grant66,37860.913.227.810.
224335Paisley and Renfrewshire SouthMhairi Black61,34468.013.828.
228331Edinburgh EastTommy Sheppard65,89666.012.625.710.93.946.
234325Airdrie and ShottsNeil Gray64,14659.216.728.
237322MidlothianDanielle Rowley68,32866.319.029.511.
245314Dunfermline and West FifeDouglas Chapman75,67267.418.
247312East LothianMartin Whitfield79,09370.623.329.411.
247312LivingstonHannah Bardell81,20864.717.923.
249310Aberdeen NorthKirsty Blackman62,13059.216.621.512.
249310East Kilbride, Strathaven and LesmahagowLisa Cameron80,44267.318.922.910.34.343.
249310Paisley and Renfrewshire NorthGavin Newlands67,43669.
250309Kilmarnock and LoudounAlan Brown73,32763.418.720.
250309Edinburgh North and LeithDeidre Brock79,47371.219.321.
250309Orkney and ShetlandAlistair Carmichael34,16468.15.26.851.
250309FalkirkJohnny McNally82,24065.419.821.
251308Linlithgow and East FalkirkMartyn Day86,18665.
251308Lanark and Hamilton EastAngela Crawley77,31365.325.725.
251308Dundee EastStewart Hosie65,85465.219.417.
251308Dunbartonshire EastJo Swinson66,30078.
252307Ayrshire North and ArranPatricia Gibson73,17464.824.818.
252307Edinburgh WestChristine Jardine71,50073.815.38.540.33.532.
253306Caithness Sutherland and Easter RossJamie Stone46,86865.915.88.741.
253306Ayrshire CentralPhilippa Whitford68,99765.327.919.
254305Edinburgh South WestJoanna Cherry71,17869.425.416.
254305Ross Skye and LochaberIan Blackford53,63871.716.97.625.
255304Fife North EastStephen Gethins58,68571.317.
258301Renfrewshire EastPaul Masterton70,06776.733.519.
265294Inverness Nairn Badenoch and StrathspeyDrew Hendry76,84468.724.29.419.03.643.
270289Ayr Carrick and CumnockBill Grant71,24164.933.617.
273286StirlingStephen Kerr66,41574.330.813.410.
274285Argyll and ButeBrendan O'Hara67,23071.526.48.824.
290269Ochil and South PerthshireLuke Graham76,76770.635.
292267Aberdeen SouthRoss Thomson64,96468.535.713.713.
298261Dumfries and GallowayAlister Jack74,20669.537.114.310.
309250GordonColin Clark78,53168.433.98.417.
320239Perth and North PerthshirePete Wishart71,74371.835.47.510.
327232AngusKirstene Hair63,84063.
347213Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and TweeddaleDavid Mundell67,67272.442.711.
361198MorayDouglas Ross70,64967.440.
365195Aberdeenshire West and KincardineAndrew Bowie72,47771.241.07.914.
377182Banff and BuchanDavid Duguid67,60161.641.
448112Berwickshire, Roxburgh and SelkirkJohn Lamont73,19171.546.96.510.

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2017. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.

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