User-defined Prediction

The predicted results in the country and in Scotland, given the National levels of support which you entered, are as follows.

National Prediction: Conservative short 18 of majority

Party2017 Votes2017 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesNet ChangePred Seats
CON 43.5%318 22.0%212-10308
LAB 41.0%262 28.0%011-11251
LIB 7.6%12 11.0%40+416
Brexit 0.0%0 21.0%40+44
Green 1.7%1 6.0%00+01
SNP 3.1%35 3.6%151+1449
PlaidC 0.5%4 0.5%01-13
UKIP 1.9%0 4.0%00+00
Other 0.7%0 4.0%00+00
N.Ire 18 00+018

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Table of all seat results in Scotland

Scotland Prediction

Party2017 Votes2017 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesNet ChangePred Seats
CON 28.6%13 21.0%010-103
LAB 27.1%7 18.0%05-52
LIB 6.8%4 11.0%10+15
Brexit 0.0%0 0.0%00+00
Green 0.2%0 4.0%00+00
SNP 36.9%35 41.0%151+1449
UKIP 0.2%0 0.0%00+00
Other 0.3%0 5.0%00+00

This page shows all the seats in Scotland sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'CON Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Angus (prediction: SNP), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Edinburgh East (prediction: SNP).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of Scotland seats with predictions

LAB
Seats
CON
Seats
SeatMP at 2017ElectorateTurn
Out%
CON
%
LAB
%
LIB
%
Green
%
SNP
%
UKIP
%
MIN
%
OTH
%
2017
Win
Pred
Win
87473Kirkcaldy and CowdenbeathLesley Laird72,72163.517.351.427.04.30.00.00.00.0LABLAB
97463Edinburgh SouthIan Murray64,55374.113.346.09.84.026.90.00.00.0LABLAB
126433Glasgow North EastPaul Sweeney59,93253.09.035.68.50.046.90.00.00.0LABSNP
151408Glasgow South WestChris Stephens62,99156.210.833.69.40.046.20.00.00.0SNPSNP
156403Coatbridge, Chryston and BellshillHugh Gaffney71,19863.311.133.68.43.743.10.00.00.0LABSNP
182377Glasgow CentralAlison Thewliss64,34655.99.729.48.93.548.50.00.00.0SNPSNP
189370Glasgow EastDavid Linden66,24254.613.132.110.10.044.70.00.00.0SNPSNP
198361Rutherglen and Hamilton WestGed Killen80,09863.513.531.012.60.042.90.00.00.0LABSNP
200359Motherwell and WishawMarion Fellows68,21561.513.931.110.40.044.60.00.00.0SNPSNP
200359Dunbartonshire WestMartin Docherty67,60265.210.427.56.63.847.00.00.04.8SNPSNP
204355Glasgow North WestCarol Monaghan63,77360.912.328.910.90.047.90.00.00.0SNPSNP
214345InverclydeRonnie Cowan58,85366.415.030.710.20.044.10.00.00.0SNPSNP
217342Na h-Eileanan An Iar (Western Isles)Angus MacNeil21,30169.611.326.78.80.045.80.07.50.0SNPSNP
217342Glasgow NorthPatrick Grady53,86362.110.225.59.613.341.50.00.00.0SNPSNP
220339Dundee WestChris Law62,64461.79.824.87.90.051.80.00.05.7SNPSNP
222337Glasgow SouthStewart McDonald69,12664.412.927.710.04.045.40.00.00.0SNPSNP
223336Cumbernauld, Kilsyth and Kirkintilloch EastStuart McDonald66,55465.912.527.210.80.049.50.00.00.0SNPSNP
223336GlenrothesPeter Grant66,37860.913.227.810.60.048.40.00.00.0SNPSNP
224335Paisley and Renfrewshire SouthMhairi Black61,34468.013.828.211.80.046.30.00.00.0SNPSNP
228331Edinburgh EastTommy Sheppard65,89666.012.625.710.93.946.80.00.00.0SNPSNP
234325Airdrie and ShottsNeil Gray64,14659.216.728.29.04.042.00.00.00.0SNPSNP
237322MidlothianDanielle Rowley68,32866.319.029.511.50.040.00.00.00.0LABSNP
245314Dunfermline and West FifeDouglas Chapman75,67267.418.225.012.84.039.90.00.00.0SNPSNP
247312East LothianMartin Whitfield79,09370.623.329.411.10.036.20.00.00.0LABSNP
247312LivingstonHannah Bardell81,20864.717.923.89.84.044.50.00.00.0SNPSNP
249310Aberdeen NorthKirsty Blackman62,13059.216.621.512.24.045.70.00.00.0SNPSNP
249310East Kilbride, Strathaven and LesmahagowLisa Cameron80,44267.318.922.910.34.343.50.00.00.0SNPSNP
249310Paisley and Renfrewshire NorthGavin Newlands67,43669.121.125.010.90.043.10.00.00.0SNPSNP
250309Kilmarnock and LoudounAlan Brown73,32763.418.720.87.50.048.00.00.05.1SNPSNP
250309Edinburgh North and LeithDeidre Brock79,47371.219.321.09.17.138.40.00.05.1SNPSNP
250309Orkney and ShetlandAlistair Carmichael34,16468.15.26.851.70.032.30.00.04.0LIBLIB
250309FalkirkJohnny McNally82,24065.419.821.09.56.043.70.00.00.0SNPSNP
251308Linlithgow and East FalkirkMartyn Day86,18665.121.121.08.04.040.70.00.05.1SNPSNP
251308Lanark and Hamilton EastAngela Crawley77,31365.325.725.210.60.038.60.00.00.0SNPSNP
251308Dundee EastStewart Hosie65,85465.219.417.99.10.048.50.00.05.1SNPSNP
251308Dunbartonshire EastJo Swinson66,30078.18.87.243.92.933.50.00.03.7LIBLIB
252307Ayrshire North and ArranPatricia Gibson73,17464.824.818.69.34.043.30.00.00.0SNPSNP
252307Edinburgh WestChristine Jardine71,50073.815.38.540.33.532.40.00.00.0LIBLIB
253306Caithness Sutherland and Easter RossJamie Stone46,86865.915.88.741.80.033.60.00.00.0LIBLIB
253306Ayrshire CentralPhilippa Whitford68,99765.327.919.210.00.042.80.00.00.0SNPSNP
254305Edinburgh South WestJoanna Cherry71,17869.425.416.68.84.040.00.00.05.1SNPSNP
254305Ross Skye and LochaberIan Blackford53,63871.716.97.625.10.044.70.00.05.7SNPSNP
255304Fife North EastStephen Gethins58,68571.317.47.238.60.036.90.00.00.0SNPLIB
258301Renfrewshire EastPaul Masterton70,06776.733.519.89.80.036.90.00.00.0CONSNP
265294Inverness Nairn Badenoch and StrathspeyDrew Hendry76,84468.724.29.419.03.643.80.00.00.0SNPSNP
270289Ayr Carrick and CumnockBill Grant71,24164.933.617.09.60.039.80.00.00.0CONSNP
273286StirlingStephen Kerr66,41574.330.813.410.64.041.20.00.00.0CONSNP
274285Argyll and ButeBrendan O'Hara67,23071.526.48.824.30.040.50.00.00.0SNPSNP
290269Ochil and South PerthshireLuke Graham76,76770.635.013.210.90.040.90.00.00.0CONSNP
292267Aberdeen SouthRoss Thomson64,96468.535.713.713.50.037.10.00.00.0CONSNP
298261Dumfries and GallowayAlister Jack74,20669.537.114.310.60.038.00.00.00.0CONSNP
309250GordonColin Clark78,53168.433.98.417.50.040.20.00.00.0CONSNP
320239Perth and North PerthshirePete Wishart71,74371.835.47.510.60.046.40.00.00.0SNPSNP
327232AngusKirstene Hair63,84063.038.49.19.40.043.10.00.00.0CONSNP
347213Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and TweeddaleDavid Mundell67,67272.442.711.110.90.035.20.00.00.0CONCON
361198MorayDouglas Ross70,64967.440.88.08.20.043.00.00.00.0CONSNP
365195Aberdeenshire West and KincardineAndrew Bowie72,47771.241.07.914.40.036.70.00.00.0CONCON
377182Banff and BuchanDavid Duguid67,60161.641.17.08.90.043.10.00.00.0CONSNP
448112Berwickshire, Roxburgh and SelkirkJohn Lamont73,19171.546.96.510.00.036.60.00.00.0CONCON

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2017. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.


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