User-defined Prediction

The predicted results in the country and in Scotland, given the National levels of support which you entered, are as follows.

National Prediction: Conservative short 13 of majority

Party2017 Votes2017 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesNet ChangePred Seats
CON 43.5%318 25.0%2126-5313
LAB 41.0%262 21.0%032-32230
LIB 7.6%12 20.0%200+2032
Brexit 0.0%0 19.0%00+00
Green 1.7%1 8.0%00+01
SNP 3.1%35 3.9%180+1853
PlaidC 0.5%4 0.5%01-13
UKIP 1.9%0 0.0%00+00
Other 0.7%0 2.9%00+00
N.Ire 18 00+018

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Table of all seat results in Scotland

Scotland Prediction

Party2017 Votes2017 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesNet ChangePred Seats
CON 28.6%13 13.0%013-130
LAB 27.1%7 15.0%05-52
LIB 6.8%4 10.0%00+04
Brexit 0.0%0 10.0%00+00
Green 0.2%0 7.0%00+00
SNP 36.9%35 42.0%180+1853
UKIP 0.2%0 0.0%00+00
Other 0.3%0 3.0%00+00

This page shows all the seats in Scotland sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'CON Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk (prediction: SNP), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Livingston (prediction: SNP).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of Scotland seats with predictions

LAB
Seats
CON
Seats
SeatMP at 2017ElectorateTurn
Out%
CON
%
LAB
%
LIB
%
Brexit
%
Green
%
SNP
%
UKIP
%
MIN
%
OTH
%
2017
Win
Pred
Win
24520Kirkcaldy and CowdenbeathLesley Laird72,72163.510.547.023.911.77.00.00.00.00.0LABLAB
53490Glasgow South WestChris Stephens62,99156.24.830.07.210.50.047.50.00.00.0SNPSNP
55489Edinburgh SouthIan Murray64,55374.115.139.87.60.07.030.40.00.00.0LABLAB
60483Glasgow North EastPaul Sweeney59,93253.09.432.57.20.00.050.90.00.00.0LABSNP
86457Dundee WestChris Law62,64461.74.522.87.09.30.052.90.00.03.5SNPSNP
89454Glasgow NorthPatrick Grady53,86362.14.221.87.39.015.642.10.00.00.0SNPSNP
92451GlenrothesPeter Grant66,37860.97.424.98.210.10.049.30.00.00.0SNPSNP
95448Coatbridge, Chryston and BellshillHugh Gaffney71,19863.311.929.26.30.06.346.20.00.00.0LABSNP
100443Glasgow SouthStewart McDonald69,12664.47.223.67.39.76.345.90.00.00.0SNPSNP
104439Glasgow CentralAlison Thewliss64,34655.910.025.66.90.06.051.50.00.00.0SNPSNP
109434Glasgow EastDavid Linden66,24254.614.429.47.80.00.048.40.00.00.0SNPSNP
118425Rutherglen and Hamilton WestGed Killen80,09863.514.728.510.30.00.046.50.00.00.0LABSNP
118425Glasgow North WestCarol Monaghan63,77360.913.026.68.90.00.051.40.00.00.0SNPSNP
119424Motherwell and WishawMarion Fellows68,21561.515.228.68.00.00.048.30.00.00.0SNPSNP
121422Na h-Eileanan An Iar (Western Isles)Angus MacNeil21,30169.611.724.76.90.00.049.20.07.50.0SNPSNP
122421Dunbartonshire WestMartin Docherty67,60265.211.724.45.30.06.249.90.00.02.5SNPSNP
123420InverclydeRonnie Cowan58,85366.415.728.28.10.00.047.90.00.00.0SNPSNP
129414Cumbernauld, Kilsyth and Kirkintilloch EastStuart McDonald66,55465.913.525.18.40.00.053.00.00.00.0SNPSNP
133410Paisley and Renfrewshire SouthMhairi Black61,34468.014.726.09.60.00.049.70.00.00.0SNPSNP
149394Edinburgh EastTommy Sheppard65,89666.013.422.48.40.06.249.50.00.00.0SNPSNP
157386MidlothianDanielle Rowley68,32866.318.827.49.70.00.044.20.00.00.0LABSNP
161382Aberdeen NorthKirsty Blackman62,13059.210.018.49.39.96.446.10.00.00.0SNPSNP
165378Airdrie and ShottsNeil Gray64,14659.217.024.66.60.06.745.10.00.00.0SNPSNP
180363Edinburgh North and LeithDeidre Brock79,47371.212.018.57.810.09.839.10.00.02.7SNPSNP
191352East LothianMartin Whitfield79,09370.622.127.59.50.00.040.80.00.00.0LABSNP
194349Linlithgow and East FalkirkMartyn Day86,18665.113.318.46.710.26.941.60.00.02.8SNPSNP
204339Dunfermline and West FifeDouglas Chapman75,67267.418.121.810.40.06.743.00.00.00.0SNPSNP
206337Orkney and ShetlandAlistair Carmichael34,16468.10.33.851.77.30.033.90.00.03.0LIBLIB
210333Paisley and Renfrewshire NorthGavin Newlands67,43669.120.223.59.00.00.047.20.00.00.0SNPSNP
213330LivingstonHannah Bardell81,20864.717.820.87.30.06.647.50.00.00.0SNPSNP
224319Kilmarnock and LoudounAlan Brown73,32763.418.620.26.60.00.051.90.00.02.7SNPSNP
227316East Kilbride, Strathaven and LesmahagowLisa Cameron80,44267.318.820.07.60.06.946.70.00.00.0SNPSNP
230313Lanark and Hamilton EastAngela Crawley77,31365.324.024.08.80.00.043.30.00.00.0SNPSNP
233310FalkirkJohnny McNally82,24065.419.418.46.70.08.746.80.00.00.0SNPSNP
234309Dundee EastStewart Hosie65,85465.219.017.88.20.00.052.30.00.02.7SNPSNP
234309Edinburgh South WestJoanna Cherry71,17869.416.214.77.710.57.140.90.00.02.9SNPSNP
240303Caithness Sutherland and Easter RossJamie Stone46,86865.99.55.640.59.20.035.10.00.00.0LIBLIB
241302Dunbartonshire EastJo Swinson66,30078.18.94.643.10.05.236.10.00.02.1LIBLIB
243300Ross Skye and LochaberIan Blackford53,63871.710.45.024.89.20.046.40.00.04.1SNPSNP
245298Ayrshire CentralPhilippa Whitford68,99765.325.218.98.50.00.047.50.00.00.0SNPSNP
245298Ayrshire North and ArranPatricia Gibson73,17464.822.816.47.00.07.046.70.00.00.0SNPSNP
249294Inverness Nairn Badenoch and StrathspeyDrew Hendry76,84468.715.26.516.910.06.544.70.00.00.0SNPSNP
249294Edinburgh WestChristine Jardine71,50073.815.25.638.30.05.835.10.00.00.0LIBLIB
249294Renfrewshire EastPaul Masterton70,06776.729.619.78.60.00.042.20.00.00.0CONSNP
250293Ayr Carrick and CumnockBill Grant71,24164.929.517.28.30.00.044.90.00.00.0CONSNP
250293Fife North EastStephen Gethins58,68571.316.74.338.00.00.041.00.00.00.0SNPSNP
254289StirlingStephen Kerr66,41574.327.312.18.50.07.244.90.00.00.0CONSNP
255288Ochil and South PerthshireLuke Graham76,76770.630.413.99.60.00.046.00.00.00.0CONSNP
255288Aberdeen SouthRoss Thomson64,96468.531.014.412.30.00.042.30.00.00.0CONSNP
256287Argyll and ButeBrendan O'Hara67,23071.523.87.023.80.00.045.40.00.00.0SNPSNP
256287Dumfries and GallowayAlister Jack74,20669.532.215.09.50.00.043.40.00.00.0CONSNP
259284Perth and North PerthshirePete Wishart71,74371.823.04.710.911.60.049.80.00.00.0SNPSNP
272271GordonColin Clark78,53168.429.56.717.70.00.046.10.00.00.0CONSNP
292251AngusKirstene Hair63,84063.033.08.09.70.00.049.40.00.00.0CONSNP
292251Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and TweeddaleDavid Mundell67,67272.436.411.310.80.00.041.50.00.00.0CONSNP
313230MorayDouglas Ross70,64967.434.86.49.00.00.049.80.00.00.0CONSNP
314229Aberdeenshire West and KincardineAndrew Bowie72,47771.235.06.415.20.00.043.40.00.00.0CONSNP
324219Banff and BuchanDavid Duguid67,60161.634.95.49.90.00.049.90.00.00.0CONSNP
360183Berwickshire, Roxburgh and SelkirkJohn Lamont73,19171.539.25.511.40.00.043.90.00.00.0CONSNP

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2017. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.


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